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THE KOG REPORT - ELECTION SPECIAL UPDATEEnd of day update from us here at KOG: The path has worked quite well so far with price testing the high, adhering to KOG's bias for the day and week and respecting the red boxes. We've managed to stay the right way and capture most of the move down completing nearly all the bias level targets on the KOG Report. So, what now? We have major support below at the 2650-55 region with slight extension in to 2645. If this level is attacked and defended in the coming sessions we should get a move back upside into the initial levels of 2675 and above that 2680-5. We do need to see a clean reversal for this to happen so let's be patient if you're looking to go long. Those who followed and are short, we suggested protecting and taking partials along the way while enjoying the move. For now, planned and executed, Excalibur and the red boxes performing well. Let's see what tomorrow's news brings. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
2
Adjustment - gold price drops! Waiting for the new US president⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance ⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold (XAU/USD) remains positive on Monday as US election risks and Middle East tensions continue to support the safe-haven asset. However, stronger demand for the Greenback and rising US bond yields could limit Gold’s gains, as higher yields make non-yielding assets like Gold less appealing. Investors are focused on Tuesday's US presidential election, with the market’s attention shifting to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Thursday. Given the election uncertainty, it’s anticipated that the Fed will opt for a standard 25 basis point rate cut, rather than a larger half-point easing. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Gold price officially decreased - legalized adjustment with the US presidential election. The US economy will have a new breeze - boosting the economy and other investment areas. Gold will wait for the next interest rate information ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2757 - $2759 SL $2762 scalping TP1: $2750 TP2: $2740 TP3: $2730 🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2771 - $2773 SL $2778 TP1: $2765 TP2: $2750 TP3: $2740 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2717 - $2715 SL $2710 TP1: $2725 TP2: $2732 TP3: $2740 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
1
XAU/USD shorts from 2,760 or Longs from 2,720This week, my analysis suggests that gold may continue to drop, targeting the trendline liquidity formed below. Once that liquidity is taken out, I anticipate a bullish reaction, potentially around the demand zone I have identified. If the price retraces up to the supply zone, I’ll look for potential sell opportunities to follow this short-term bearish trend. Since my overall bias is bullish, I am more inclined towards long positions due to the higher time frame outlook. However, if the price surpasses any of my nearby Points of Interest (POIs), I’ll watch for a deeper retracement around the demand at 2,680 or the supply at 2,780. Confluences for Gold Sells: - Price has shown a bearish shift on the higher time frame. - Supply zones remain on both the 1-hour and daily charts. - There is significant trendline liquidity below, providing a target for further downside movement. - The dollar has been moving bullishly, which aligns with a potential drop in gold. - Gold has been in a strong bullish trend and may be showing signs of exhaustion, hence the recent heavy decline. P.S. I’ll stay vigilant and assess where the price moves first. If price breaks structure to the downside, I’ll have a stronger inclination to sell. Have a great trading week!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Hassan_fx
Gold Flashing Warning SignsGold Flashing Warning Signs: Why We’re Taking a Cautious Short Position Today, our Commitment of Traders (COT) strategy triggered a short trade on gold. Yes, we know—shorting gold at all-time highs feels like swimming upstream. But if you’ve been with us long enough, you know we don’t follow the crowd. We follow the data. And the signals? Well, let’s just say they’re getting hard to ignore. To clarify, this setup wasn’t made on a whim. We got the green light when key technical indicators—Momentum, the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO), and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI)—all confirmed a bearish divergence on the Daily timeframe. Here’s a closer look at what’s guiding our trade: 1. Commercial Traders Are on High Alert Commercial players—those who deal with gold at its core—are positioned short like we haven’t seen in over three years. They’re the steady hands here, and their caution is hard to overlook. It suggests that even in a market frenzy, they’re seeing potential downsides others may not be watching. 2. Retail Speculators Are Leaning Long While not at full extremes, small speculators are heavily positioned on the long side, nearing a six-month high. This confidence could mean trouble—when retail traders load up, it can mark the late stages of a rally. We’re paying attention to this; it’s a classic contrarian indicator. 3. Open Interest Is Surging—But Why? Open interest in gold futures has been climbing steadily. That’s usually a good thing for bulls, but here’s the twist: large and small speculators have been driving this uptrend. If these buyers lose momentum, who’s left to push prices higher? 4. Sentiment Is Peaking—But Is It Too High? Market sentiment is at a bullish extreme, with advisors optimistic about gold’s rally. High sentiment can be a double-edged sword. It often means there are few people left to buy, and that’s when reversals happen. It’s a classic market psychology moment—and we’re taking note. 5. Gold Is Pricey Relative to Treasuries Using our WillVal indicator, we see that gold is hitting valuation peaks compared to treasuries. This isn’t an automatic sell, but it’s a signal that the precious metal might be pushing its limits. 6. ADX Shows Intense Momentum, But There’s Caution Our ADX indicator is above 40, confirming strong momentum. But we’re cautious here—when the market gets this heated, we often see shifts. Combined with those commercial short positions and high investor sentiment, this momentum could be due for a reality check. 7. Bearish Spread Divergence Is Emerging There’s divergence between the front-month and next-month gold contracts, a sign that underlying strength may be weakening. It’s a small detail, but one that hints the rally might be overextended. 8. Supplementary Indicators Aren't Looking Optimistic Rounding things out, our Insider Acc/Dis, %R, and Stochastic indicators are all showing bearish signals. We don’t rely on these alone, but together, they reinforce the caution signals we’re already seeing. The Bottom Line Shorting gold during a run like this isn’t a decision we take lightly. But the COT data, market positioning, and sentiment suggest a cooling-off period could be near, and the trade was triggered today via the divergence on the daily. Markets have a way of humbling even the most confident predictions, so we approach this trade with an open mind and a healthy dose of caution. If you’re interested in seeing how we analyze trades and approach market extremes, stay tuned.
COMEX:GCZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades