Bullish Momentum Builds as Gold Trades Within 3200–3250 RangeSHORT-TERM GOLD ANALYSIS – XAUUSD
🟢 GOLD SURGES TO $3250 FOLLOWING FED CHAIR'S SPEECH
Gold prices spiked to the $3250 region after a reassuring speech by the new Fed Chair, which helped calm market sentiment. The move reflects renewed demand for safe-haven assets.
📉 Currently, XAUUSD is trading around the 3220 area, testing short-term resistance levels and potentially building momentum for another upward push.
🔎 Key short-term price zone:
In the short term, gold is likely to range between $3200 and $3250, forming a short-term trading zone where accumulation and directional moves may develop.
✅ Short-Term Trade Setup
🔹BUY:
Entry: 3205
Take Profit (TP): 3210
Stop Loss (SL): 3200
🔹SELL :
Entry: 3241
Take Profit (TP): 3236
Stop Loss (SL): 3246
⚠️ Notes:
These setups are best suited for short-term traders using lower timeframes (M15–H1).
Monitor price action closely around 3200 and 3250 for confirmation before entering trades.
Always apply proper risk management to avoid overexposure, especially with ongoing market reactions to Fed news.
Goldshortterm
Short-Term Outlook: Gold Slumps After Breaking Key Support📉 Short-Term Trend Analysis – XAU/USD
- Gold (XAU/USD) is under heavy selling pressure after decisively breaking below the key support level at $3,200, marking a significant shift in short-term momentum.
- The $3,176 zone, which marks the April 11 low, now serves as a crucial technical support. A clear break below this level could open the door for a deeper drop toward the next key support around $3,140.
If the $3,176 level fails to hold and bearish momentum continues, the market is likely to push lower toward the $3,140 support zone.
📰 Fundamental Drivers Behind the Decline
No major news has been released today, but the market continues to be weighed down by:
- Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, which remain unresolved.
- U.S. CPI data for April came in weaker than expected, causing investors to adjust interest rate expectations and favoring short-term downside for gold.
🔮 Short-Term Technical Scenario
After breaching the $3,200 support level, gold is expected to consolidate briefly in the $3,176–$3,190 range before potentially resuming its downtrend.
💡 Short-Term XAU/USD Trade Setups
🔻 SELL
Entry Zone: 3193 – 3190
Take Profit: 3188 – 3185
Stop Loss: 3198
🔺 BUY
Entry Zone: 3179 – 3176
Take Profit: 3184 – 3181
Stop Loss: 3171
📌 Note:
In the current market environment, short-term strategies are preferred.
Apply strict risk management as volatility may increase due to geopolitical headlines or technical retracements.
Closely monitor price action around $3,176 — a confirmed break below this level could accelerate the move toward $3,140.
[XAU/USD Analysis – 1H Timeframe] - as expectedAs predicted in the previous post, gold (XAU/USD) reacted precisely at the 3243 resistance zone — a strong supply area where our short-term SELL setup was triggered. Price then reversed and moved downward as expected.
At the moment, the trade plan remains unchanged. You can refer to the detailed setup in my previous post on my personal page. Here's the updated short-term strategy
💡 Short-Term Trade Scenarios:
SELL XAU/USD
📍 Entry Zone: 3240 – 3243
💰 Take Profit: 3235 – 3238
🚨 Stop Loss: 3245
BUY XAU/USD
📍 Entry Zone: 3219 – 3222
💰 Take Profit: 3224 – 3227
🚨 Stop Loss: 3214
The market is currently trading within a narrow range, so the short-term strategy is to “buy low – sell high” within this zone, with tight risk management. A clear breakout beyond 3245 or 3214 may require a reassessment of the trading strategy based on momentum and volume.
⏳ Note: This is a short-term analysis based on the 1H timeframe and is not intended for overnight holding unless supported by a clear setup.
Gold Sideways: A Short-Term Opportunity for Smart Traders⚙️ 1. Short-Term Trend
On the 1-hour timeframe, gold price is consolidating in a narrow range between $3,220 – $3,243 following a pullback from the recent peak at $3,265. Recent candlesticks suggest that selling pressure is weakening, but no clear reversal signal has appeared yet. The main trend remains slightly bearish within a tight channel, awaiting a breakout.
📍 2. Key Technical Levels
• Nearby Resistance:
o $3,230: A mid-session resistance level that has been tested multiple times but not yet convincingly broken.
o $3,243: Intraday high. A break above this level could trigger a move toward $3,265, with potential extension to $3,280.
• Key Support:
o $3,220: Minor intraday support, currently under repeated testing.
o $3,200: Strong support and a critical technical level. A breakdown below this level may lead to further decline toward $3,185 – $3,170.
📈 3. Technical Indicators
• EMA 50 & 200 (H1): Price is trading between the 50 and 200 EMAs, indicating consolidation and indecision before a breakout.
• RSI (14): Hovering around 45–50, suggesting slowing bearish momentum, but no clear sign of a bullish reversal.
💡 Short-Term Trade Scenarios:
SELL XAU/USD Zone : 3240 – 3243
💰 TP : 3235 – 3238
🚨 SL $3245
BUY XAU/USD Zone: 3219 – 3222
💰 TP : 3224 – 3227
🚨 SL $3214
⚠️ Trading Note
Volatility may spike if there is news from the Fed or new geopolitical developments.
XAUUSD 15 mins ChartThis chart captures a consolidation phase forming between two critical levels:
🔑 Key Zones:
Resistance Zone: ~$3,240–$3,245
This zone has acted as a ceiling where price repeatedly rejected. It's a liquidity cluster and decision area for bulls and bears.
Support Zone: ~$3,223–$3,225
Well-respected bottom of the range. Every touch here sees a reaction, signaling that buyers defend this zone for now.
🔄 Market Structure:
Sideways/Range-bound between $3,225 and $3,245.
Price is consolidating after a sharp move down.
Multiple failed breakouts, indicating indecision before news/events.
🔀 Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Breakout Setup:
Break and retest above $3,245 with strong volume could lead to a move toward:
First target: $3,260–$3,270
Extended target: $3,300 (previous structure)
Trigger confirmation: Break of highs at ~$3,245 with candle body close above.
🚨 Bearish Breakdown Setup:
Failure to break the purple zone + breakdown of support at $3,223 may open:
Immediate target: $3,200
Extended target: $3,180–$3,160 range
Trigger confirmation: Break and candle close below $3,223 with spike in volume.
🔄 Neutral/Bounce Range Trading:
Until a breakout, this is a mean-reversion range. Trades between $3,225 and $3,245 can be scalped with tight stops.
📊 Volume & Price Behavior:
Volume is decreasing slightly within the range → suggesting buildup before a news-related breakout.
Large move likely after breakout from this compression.
Gold Technical Analysis🔹 Price Structure:
Price is in a short-term downtrend channel.
Currently trading at $3,336, heading towards a major support zone around $3,315–$3,310.
RSI at 36.6 is nearing oversold territory – indicating downside momentum slowing.
🔹 Key Zones:
Support: $3,315 (major support with bounce potential)
Resistance: $3,380 (target if support holds)
Breakdown target: $3,290 (if major support breaks)
🔹 Price Action Possibilities:
🔁 Bounce Scenario: Price touches major support, RSI bounces, and price rallies back to $3,380 (drawn with the up arrow).
🔻 Breakdown Scenario: Price fails to hold support and drops toward $3,290 (red arrow path).
Are we about to see Gold bounce back?After yesterday's big drop off the back of Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary and news of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, the gold price reached a low of 2605 before settling in a range between 2615 and 2630.
The drop is a little surprising given the Trump pick had been known for several days and it appears that he might help temper the President Elect's plans for levelling tariffs. There are also signs that the proposed ceasefire plan may struggle to get through the Israeli parliament whilst the two nations continue to attack each other.
Currently, Gold is finding strong resistance at 2628-33, the 1H did close slightly above in a small sign that we might be about to see further gains. If this happens the the gold price should find a clear ride to the next fib retracement level at 2650 and then 2663. There is some significant economic news due today including the House Price Index, Consumer Confidence and the FOMC minutes. Given there's no clear direction at the moment we could see a shift in sentiment as each piece of news hits the market.
For the moment the price looks to be rebounding off yesterday's lows and the weekly chart show's the price movement remaining well within the established long term uptrend.
Gold fell and broke through, continue to be bearish on gold
After gold rebounded and came under pressure at 2350 resistance, it fell directly, and then fell below a new low. Gold broke through and fell, and short-term bulls were weak.
The 30-minute moving average of gold has formed a dead cross downward short position. The 30-minute gold has formed a downward trend. It has rebounded weakly along the downward trend line. Now the resistance of the downward trend line is just around 2341.
Gold (GC11 Futures) Mid Term Analysis - SHORTLast week saw a lot of emotional buying of the market. While some short positions were not viable later in the week, there has now been a clear rejection from:
1) The higher zone mentioned prior:
2) The previous long term weekly H&S pattern mentioned back in August:
In terms of current price action, it seems that an inverse H&S pattern is forming on the daily. We can also see that in terms of the RSI - with tweaked values more suited for long term analysis - that the price is EXTREMELY overbought. Note on the chart that historically - when using my specific settings - that there is a high probability for a reversal.
In terms of the DXY, TECHNICALLY it is still BULLISH on the daily, and has been simply consolidating for the past few days. Please note this infographic:
The probability for a move down for Gold seems more likely. There are two scenarios:
1) A retrace to the first minor zone around 1973.5 - 1967, based on the Fibonacci retracement of the recent daily impulsive move. The bottom point starting from the low of Monday 16th, and the high point being Friday 20th.
2) A retrace to the purple zone, starting at 1940.5, extending down to 1921. This is based on the Fibonacci retracement of the recent weekly wave up: .
Scenario 2 seems more like of the two, as it would be a logical place for the final shoulder to form in line with this analysis.
There are a variety of ways to approach an entry for this week:
1) Buy PUT options around this price. If you do not have access to this functionality because you are trading CFD's, look into using the broker "Avatrade". They feature short term options spanning a few days, and while they are as powerful as traditional options, it can shield you from some of the short term volatility.
2) Look for a breakout sell below the low of Fridays candle, that being 1983.7 on the Futures.
3) Look for to short the 0.618 retracement of Fridays candle.
4) Look to short near the top of Fridays wick, essentially forming a double top.
5) Wait for a confirmed flip of the 21 / 55 EMA's, and look for a short around a relevant pivot.
I will be opting for approach 1, as well as approach 3. Manage your risk accordingly.
Just as a final note: Please note, there will be times where losses will be taken, but if you are entering around historical areas of support / resistance, they will be extremely negligible compared to your overall profits. Aim for points, not pips. Also please keep in mind, it is good practice to take profit as a position runs. Taking some profit out after 5 to 10 points is not a bad thing.
I hope this analysis will help you for the week ahead. I will be posting more closer to time analysis throughout the week. The majority of my time will be spent either here OR in private chat, so if you have any questions, feel free to ask!
Good luck!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice.
Gold short term retracement 1HOUR TFGold will retrace to pink area as demand is waiting there. Tested twice on previous structure
estimate around 600 pips
XAUUSD PASSBY TRADE15 MINS TF. WHEN BREAKOUT EITHER SIDE, CONTINUE TO TREND UNTIL NEXT SUPPORT/RESISTANCE/TREND LINE.
15mins tf when breakout either side, continue to trend until next support/resistance/trend line.
XAU/USD short-term forecastA continuation of the surge of the price for gold might eventually reach and once again test the resistance of the 1,800.00 mark. The 1,800.00 mark acted as a resistance level on October 14.
However, a decline might look for support in the 1,760.25/1,763.40 zone, which acted as support on Monday. Below this zone, the October low levels below 1,750.00 could act as support.
On the daily candle chart, the yellow metal's price has bounced off the resistance of the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages, which strengthened the resistance of the 1,800.00 mark.
We Expect the market will go up to the 1789-1790 levels and from there we should see downside momentum