Goldshortterm
Are we about to see Gold bounce back?After yesterday's big drop off the back of Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary and news of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, the gold price reached a low of 2605 before settling in a range between 2615 and 2630.
The drop is a little surprising given the Trump pick had been known for several days and it appears that he might help temper the President Elect's plans for levelling tariffs. There are also signs that the proposed ceasefire plan may struggle to get through the Israeli parliament whilst the two nations continue to attack each other.
Currently, Gold is finding strong resistance at 2628-33, the 1H did close slightly above in a small sign that we might be about to see further gains. If this happens the the gold price should find a clear ride to the next fib retracement level at 2650 and then 2663. There is some significant economic news due today including the House Price Index, Consumer Confidence and the FOMC minutes. Given there's no clear direction at the moment we could see a shift in sentiment as each piece of news hits the market.
For the moment the price looks to be rebounding off yesterday's lows and the weekly chart show's the price movement remaining well within the established long term uptrend.
Gold fell and broke through, continue to be bearish on gold
After gold rebounded and came under pressure at 2350 resistance, it fell directly, and then fell below a new low. Gold broke through and fell, and short-term bulls were weak.
The 30-minute moving average of gold has formed a dead cross downward short position. The 30-minute gold has formed a downward trend. It has rebounded weakly along the downward trend line. Now the resistance of the downward trend line is just around 2341.
Gold (GC11 Futures) Mid Term Analysis - SHORTLast week saw a lot of emotional buying of the market. While some short positions were not viable later in the week, there has now been a clear rejection from:
1) The higher zone mentioned prior:
2) The previous long term weekly H&S pattern mentioned back in August:
In terms of current price action, it seems that an inverse H&S pattern is forming on the daily. We can also see that in terms of the RSI - with tweaked values more suited for long term analysis - that the price is EXTREMELY overbought. Note on the chart that historically - when using my specific settings - that there is a high probability for a reversal.
In terms of the DXY, TECHNICALLY it is still BULLISH on the daily, and has been simply consolidating for the past few days. Please note this infographic:
The probability for a move down for Gold seems more likely. There are two scenarios:
1) A retrace to the first minor zone around 1973.5 - 1967, based on the Fibonacci retracement of the recent daily impulsive move. The bottom point starting from the low of Monday 16th, and the high point being Friday 20th.
2) A retrace to the purple zone, starting at 1940.5, extending down to 1921. This is based on the Fibonacci retracement of the recent weekly wave up: .
Scenario 2 seems more like of the two, as it would be a logical place for the final shoulder to form in line with this analysis.
There are a variety of ways to approach an entry for this week:
1) Buy PUT options around this price. If you do not have access to this functionality because you are trading CFD's, look into using the broker "Avatrade". They feature short term options spanning a few days, and while they are as powerful as traditional options, it can shield you from some of the short term volatility.
2) Look for a breakout sell below the low of Fridays candle, that being 1983.7 on the Futures.
3) Look for to short the 0.618 retracement of Fridays candle.
4) Look to short near the top of Fridays wick, essentially forming a double top.
5) Wait for a confirmed flip of the 21 / 55 EMA's, and look for a short around a relevant pivot.
I will be opting for approach 1, as well as approach 3. Manage your risk accordingly.
Just as a final note: Please note, there will be times where losses will be taken, but if you are entering around historical areas of support / resistance, they will be extremely negligible compared to your overall profits. Aim for points, not pips. Also please keep in mind, it is good practice to take profit as a position runs. Taking some profit out after 5 to 10 points is not a bad thing.
I hope this analysis will help you for the week ahead. I will be posting more closer to time analysis throughout the week. The majority of my time will be spent either here OR in private chat, so if you have any questions, feel free to ask!
Good luck!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice.
Gold short term retracement 1HOUR TFGold will retrace to pink area as demand is waiting there. Tested twice on previous structure
estimate around 600 pips
XAUUSD PASSBY TRADE15 MINS TF. WHEN BREAKOUT EITHER SIDE, CONTINUE TO TREND UNTIL NEXT SUPPORT/RESISTANCE/TREND LINE.
15mins tf when breakout either side, continue to trend until next support/resistance/trend line.
XAU/USD short-term forecastA continuation of the surge of the price for gold might eventually reach and once again test the resistance of the 1,800.00 mark. The 1,800.00 mark acted as a resistance level on October 14.
However, a decline might look for support in the 1,760.25/1,763.40 zone, which acted as support on Monday. Below this zone, the October low levels below 1,750.00 could act as support.
On the daily candle chart, the yellow metal's price has bounced off the resistance of the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages, which strengthened the resistance of the 1,800.00 mark.
We Expect the market will go up to the 1789-1790 levels and from there we should see downside momentum
Gold Short Term Sell BiasGold reach on a double top area with corrective structure, and also Higher Time Frame its on downtrend and its making HL, I am anticipating to take sell after it broke the corrective channel and make my target to the beginning of the big impulsive move before this correction.
Final drop on $GoldLooking at gold, I do believe we need to touch on that 1455 spot before we can take off. I currently have no positions, and am just watching to see what happens. With a short rally on major markets monday morning, I think we could get a swift drop on gold before larger rally up. But everything is just so volatile at the moment, it's hard to tell. I have no clear direction on $Gold at the moment.