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Gold Analysis Ahead of The FOMC. How to trade gold at FOMC? The much awaited FOMC will be released in a few hours. Naturally, there happens a big movement in dollar related pairs during FOMC. There are two parts to the FOMC statement 1. Hawkish 2. Dovish In a nutshell, hawkish means positive economic activity or optimistic positive economic projections. Hawkish statement includes all positive economic outcomes, including positive economic growth, positive trade balance, positive upcoming economic projections, more job creation, bank rates and salary increases. And Dovish is the opposite of all hawks. Now the thing is, not everything in a country is as positive, but not everything is negative. That's why we look at two or three important matters in each FOMC. If these two / three issues are positive then we do not accept the statement is hawkish, and if it is negative then we consider that the statement is dovish. The key issues in today's FOMC statement are inflation, economic growth and bank rates. And the biggest issue is the bank rate. If all three of these issues are positive then we will take the statement hawkish and we will buy dollars against other currencies. In that case we must sell gold. Now we will check the previous data a little bit about upcoming FOMC statement, from the previous data it is understood that the economic growth i.e. the previous GDP report dropped and this week the GDP report has forecast negative. That means economic growth is negative. But the job market report was positive in that case, although the economic growth is negative, the United States has some advantages compared to other countries. In that case economic growth is not entirely hawkish, but better than others. Inflation, on the other hand, is in a super high position. The last CPI report was positive. It is good to increase inflation to a certain level, but it is dangerous to increase it too much. American inflation is now in a somewhat dangerous state. We will not call it positive at all. However, it could also be positive if Powell mentions in his statement that inflation has risen, in the future we will raise rates further to control inflation. Basically, central bank rise bank rates to control inflation. So we have to see how Powell treats this higher inflation. If there are hints of more rate hikes up front, then it makes sense. This will be considered as higher inflation positive and the statement is hawkish. Now let's come to the most important issue, rate hints. Basically, almost everything depends on this issue today. If Powell says today that they want to increase the rate by 50 bp even after July, then the statement will be hawkish. But if there are no hints about the aftermath of July, the dollar may not benefit much. Because it has already said that it will increase the rate by 50 bp in July-July, and the dollar has already become quite strong in the market with the price in it. So, we have to keep this in mind at the time of the statement, what Powell says about the upcoming bank rates. Now if the FED says that we no longer need to raise rates, or hints to raise rates below 25 BP, then the dollar will be weak against gold, if nothing else. Although such a possibility is low, but not absolutely impossible. The dollar has strengthened against almost all currencies around the world. If the dollar is so strong in the long run, it will be bad for America in the long run as a reserve currency. American trade will decline, exports will decline. From my own experience, I had seen many times if the dollar is strong in the long run, the FED willfully give a dovish statement just to weaken the dollar. So as not to have a negative impact on the economy in the long run. And since the dollar has been strong for several months now, and there is no press conference in today's statement, the Fed may be willing to issue a dovish statement. I will not make any decision beforehand of the FOMC but after FOMC, we will open trades based on the statement. Technical view Immediate resistance from the current rate is $1870 And there is support at $ 1850/1845. Until FOMC, there is an opportunity that gold may test $1850/1845. If the statement is dovish then Gold is more likely to test $1870 area by bouncing from $1850/45. If the statement is too dovish, it can break $1870 and may test $1880 areas. However, in the current context, it is very difficult for Gold to go above 1880 area. On the other hand, if the FOMC statement is hawkish and the gold is stable below the $1845 area, then our 1st target for sale is $1830 and the final target is $1812.
TVC:GOLD
by Gold_Trading_Expert
2
As long as gold is above $1830/1825, We shouldn't sell gold.As long as gold is above $1830/1825, We don't need to sell gold. We won't even enter in buy mode as well unless it breaks above the $1850. Breaking above the $1850 will open the door for $1860, 1865, 1872, 1882 and finally 1892. At $1892, we have Fibo 50% retracement zone. So, there may we see some correction to the downside. Read my gold's weekly analysis for better understanding .. Before FOMC i don't think gold will break above $1840 or drop below $1825. We may see a range-bound till FOMC. When it is hard to identify the fundamental trend, its better to follow the price zone in H1 or H4 chart. That produce pips at least without any panic.
TVC:GOLD
by Gold_Trading_Expert
gold long position 17.05.21please understand this is a short trade not a swing trade. yesterdays daily candle closed beautifully with a lot of bullish pressure which price might want to act out again today. so far since markets opened, price has rejected to go lower and no our h candle has closed bullish which has high chances of pushing price higher. if price manages to hold the low that was created around 1824.28 and creates a new high we should see price reach our target as we have clean traffic to the left. our signals- a. inside bar on the h1 timeframe, b. h4 closed bullish confirmation- we need a candle to close bullish above 1830.56
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by fxqueen98
2
Gold Analysis ahead of CPI report. How long gold will drop? Over 3 weeks, gold is falling at a stance with out any major upside correction. FED is very hawkish in their statement, and it has big chances that they will rise bank rates several time more than 50 bp in this year. To hike rates CPI is a very important report. So, if the CPI prints positive or more than 5% gold has chances to drop below its strongest support level of $1830. Breaking below $1830 will open the door more bearish in gold. And next target end of this month is $1800. And final target to the downside is $1787.. On the other hand, if CPI prints negative, we will see some upward correction as it has dropped huge. If CPI prints positive, 1st target to the upside is $1862. Breaking above $1862, next target $1877 and final target to the upside is $1900/1911
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Gold_Trading_Expert
1
Chance to buy GoldLooking through the price action, Gold is clearly in an uptrend and is at the 0.236 Fib level, Which can prove to be a very good entry point for the long run. If Gold has to continue the upside rally , 2040 does not seem unachievable, an entry ar the current price between 1940 and 1920 will be a good price to buy Gold for Short and Long term . Stop loss can be at the 1910 price level , also 1900 and 1880 for risk takers.Looking at the chart in 4 hour timeframe, the correction might end soon and gold could continue on the rally upside.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by shyApricot2597
2