Silver Boom - $GOLD & $SILVERI'm long term bullish on both gold and silver. With rates rising in the short term, ehh idk, but that's not the purpose of this post and real interest rates are still largely negative.
Disregarding the spike in the gold/silver ratio in 2020, the gold to silver ratio is at all time highs. Silver has proven in the past to be a potentially better hedge against inflation over gold, although both are good. Silver has legitimiate real world applications as well.
Considering the state of the world and US conditions, I love gold and silver in the medium and long term as a way to hedge against major instability.
Good luck people, protect yourself with some real money in Gold/Silver at least some....
- C
Goldsilverratio
Get long Silver for the long haul? This chart is a super zoomed-out view of Silver priced in U.S. Dollars going back about 10 years on a Monthly time frame. While I think a very good trade idea could be coming a little later this year (2022), I think the thesis is best illustrated on the longer time frame.
As you can see in the chart, Silver spent about a year and a half consolidating in a range between the high $18 range, to the mid $24 range. I've drawn a rectangle from this time period to the Volume Profile to show that a small value area was formed at these prices.
Since April 18th, Silver has been crushed - it has barely seen an uptick on it's way to declining about -17%. The broader view isn't much better, as it is down -16.5% YoY, and -6.5% YTD. Over that same time, Gold has held up much better and is up +4% YoY and +1.3% YTD. Consequently, the Gold/Silver ratio has been trending upward on a steady incline.
While its possible that the current consolidation range can hold, and Silver can sustain prices above $20 before heading back up, but I think its easier to make the case that Silver is weakening over the near term, and could break its range to the downside.
If you believe that inflation will be a problem for months, if not years to come, metals should eventually rebound and back up to retest the previous highs. A break below $20 would likely push the Gold/Silver ratio higher, and offer a fantastic opportunity to get long Silver. with the potential tailwinds of a dramatic price rise in the near future - both in terms of U.S. Dollars, and Gold.
If the break lower does come to pass, good candidates to enter longs silver positions would be either via Futures, or options in the SLV ETF. I'd also look to put positions on in the Small Exchange's Precious Metals contract SPRE . While this is product would give exposure to the entire precious metals complex, Silver would act as the driver to push it higher.
Gold Silver Ratio as a Leading Indicator of Equity MarketsStock markets in general are not in good shape. The gold/silver ratio is ready to breakout upside.
Gold/silver ratio completing Inv H&S; it is saying a lotIn this weekly chart, 67 to 81 have been an impt range for multi-year consolidations (see the 2014 4-year consolidation box & the recent 2020 & on-going Inv H&S. Pattern). When price is rejected by 81, silver rallies more. When price bounces from 67, gold rallies more.
Starting 2021, the ratio has formed an upchannel from the bottom of the head. This channel has led to the formation of the RS. For the H&S to remain valid, price must not break below the lower channel. (Maybe just a small beartrap is ok).
Also we can see that since 2020, price attempted several times but failed to breakout of this neckline at 81. The same is true for 2014 to 2018 conso box.
If it again fails this week to BO the neckline (more probable coz both gold & silver are retracing), price may go down to retest the lower side of a BIG blue upchannel started since 2009 top to 2011 bottom.
Notice that the H&S pattern has been whipsawing using this lower channel as pivot. Thus this time price may retrace down again to this pivot somewhere near 74 before another rally to BO neck.
An Inv H&S BO would mean that finally, after multi-year consolidation, gold & silver are both ready to break much much higher.
Not trading advice
The GoldSilver head and shoulders and bearish wedgeThis is tagged as short due to the bearish patterns on the chart but it is kinda confusing because I am writing this to long silver
A zoom out has help me get a more detailed look at the goldsilver ratio. What appeared to be random chop and a blow off top now appears to be a left shoulder and head. The C19 dump created a new all time high for the goldsilver ratio and ever since then it has been bearishness. The ratio dropped almost in half from 120 to 64 and then created a classic bearish rising wedge pattern. Given the quick downside we have a flagpole and a bearish continuation structure that combined with the previous chop looks like a head and shoulders. The chart also shows a Fibonacci channel with the carats showing the anchor points. With the bearish chart pattern I see a high probability that the monthly MACD sees a bearish cross of the signal line as we see performance on the flag pole/head and shoulders.
Here is a draw on the channel drawn to monthly candle bodies as opposed to wicks. One reason I think the fib channel is valid for trading is there are lots of strong reversals at key levels.
Now this is a important point: I don't foresee this move happening in the next year or so. Price has spent a lot of time bounding around between the 62-66 range and since it has bounced there so many time as both support and resistance there is a fair chance that the ratio will be testing the range as resistance in the next couple of years if it fails as support here. A initial sell off then a return to the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern would be very typical price action. The chart below shows a fib draw and just the bottom of the fib channel. There is a confluence between the 1.618 target and the trend line support so some stall or bounce there is concurrent with the flag pole portion of the head and shoulders.
Below is my favorite example of a chart pattern hitting target off all time. It is a head and shoulders draw on Ford with quite the cant to the neckline, but it predicted a massive sell off and the technical traders stepped in right where we would expect them at that key ratio. Sure, price went down another 10% but if you were the mad man buying long term out of the money calls down there you would look like a genius. The targeting shows that we can't expect much below that 1.618 level with a high level of confidence. I have heard some technical analysts with a lot more experience than me say a flat neckline gets you better performance but I think I will be happy rotating out of silver into something else between 39 and 41.
Some Silver Nasdaq Stuff
Below is a comparison between the NDX, Silver, and Silver/NDX. It is still a bit to early to tell if Silver/NDX is in a ascending triangle with the purple as resistance or a symmetrical triangle shown by the black. But the case for NDX and Silver moving in opposite directions seems clear.
This could be its own post, and maybe I will make it one. The high beta index is NDX, and silver is high beta compared to gold. Just by simply looking at the SilverNDX pair it looks like equities broadly isn't a good decision. But if it looks like SilverNDX and GoldSilver are reversing at the same time it will be time to broadly be looking at equities and tech stocks and not precious metals and mines.
Gold/silver ratio implies outperformance for silverI was chatting to a techie friend of mine (Thomas Anthonj) last week and he told me to have a look at the gold/silver ratio as he suspected that it has completed the 5th wave of an Elliott wave count, so this morning I took a closer look and yes, I think he is right.
In addition, the market has remained capped on the topside by its 200-week ma at 82.10 and we also note the divergence of the weekly RSI. This is a measure of momentum and divergence normally indicates a loss of upside momentum.
Given that we both think the gold/silver ratio has topped, this would suggest that gold will under perform silver. So is silver the better bet for an up move? I took a look at this on both the daily and weekly charts and was reasonably uninspired but when I got to the monthly chart this was looking a whole lot more interesting!
The market has spent months consolidating just above the 21.17 long term pivot and looks to be base building longer term. So, we suggest that silver is a market that needs to go on the radar we suspect as this should see a decent recovery off such solid support.
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Buy Gold and Silver when this ratio breaks down!When the gold/silver ratio breaks down, the evidence is clear. A rally in both metals will occur soon after.
Silver benefits much more from this ratio breaking down than gold, however both metals will rally.
💡#i36 : A Potential Parting Of Ways. GOLD/SILVER Ratio 🥇🥈📊Put Simply, The Gold To
Silver Price Ratio Represents
How Many Oz. Of Silver
Required, To Buy A
Single Oz. Of Gold ⚖️
Intuition With Observation ♋
Suggests Gold Is Set To
Once Again Outperform 🏁
Second Place Silver.
Detailed Variants of Idea Chart Below 🖼️🎨
TVC:GOLDSILVER
TVC:GOLD
TVC:SILVER
$GOLD - $SILVER ratio: ?IH&S, zoom out! H&S baby!! Larger timescales always dominate shorter ones. SO looking at only the D, it looks like there's a dump, then IH&S adn so a bearish turn/
But zoom out, and be reassured! It'sa giant h&s and we're just in a knuckle on the way down.
Thatsaid - be mindfful of strong resistance/bounce after the next run.
GOLD/SILVER ratio. Is Gold about to outperform Silver again?The Gold/ Silver ratio seems to be trading inside a Channel Up since the 2008/2009 subprime mortgage crisis. The recent COVID crisis and sell-off in March 2020 served as an excellent catalyst for the pair to make a Higher High within the Channel. In February it appears that the new Higher Low was priced and looking at the CCI, we have a similar bottom sequence as in early 2011.
On the short-term I see a quick jump if the 1W MA50 breaks (blue trend-line) towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). On the (very) long-term I appears that the ratio will again enter a decade long steady rise to a new Higher High until the next crisis/ catalyst, so we can expect Gold (XAUUSD) to start outperforming Silver (XAGUSD).
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Silver - SHORT; SELL it here!!All the PMs but especially Silver is a Major SHORT here, with a Low-risk Entry!
A Bullish G/S and a likely USD reversal here - even if potentially limited in scope - should underpin a substantial decline in all the metals, from these levels.
Charts like this are no help, either! (Stock market forced liquidations have a tendency to spare nothing and no one, not even the PMs - at least initially.)
XAU/XAG (Gold/Silver) - LONG; Ready to dump the Precious Metals!... Especially silver!!
The Monthly;
XAGUSD: Why I Think Silver has LOWER to GOIF you trade SILVER you Should be familiar with The GOLD/SILVER RATIO, which typically moves INVERSELY to the PRICE of SILVER,
The GOLD/SILVER RATIO looks to be completing A WAVE-B correction, with WAVE-C starting soon in both GOLD/SILVER RATIO & SILVER, (albeit moving in INVERSE/opposite directions).
SILVER = SHORT.
GOLD/SILVER RATIO = LONG.
GOLD - SHORT; SELL it!At first sight this may be is somewhat counter intuitive at first (amid the anticipated equities decline + the massive short on the Dow/Gold Ratio) but really it is not;
1) Charts (price action) don't lie;
2) The true (reliable) Safe Haven is still the Yen - JPY; (Likely more than before?)
3) Forced liquidation in the equities (and similar events) will put pressure on the PMs, even if it is only temporary;
4) The Gold/Silver Ratio;
5) Feel free to make up your own reasons.
The Gold / Silver Ratio
SILVER RELATIVE TO GOLD/SILVER RATIO CHAPTER-2CHAPTER-1 played nicely ^^
silver prices outperforming gold and other metals.
but this bullish trend may not be sustainable before another bottom test.
Gold/Silver cycle tops late January.Cycles top soon and will continue down till July. This means bullish precious metals and silver will outperform gold. Downside price target in this down cycle for the ratio is 42.
Is the long term target for silver $1,000/oz?With the gold/silver ratio headed to 10-15 and a possible $10,000-15,000/oz gold price, silver headed to $1,000 is possible.
