7.4 Non-farm payrolls exploded, and expectations for the Fed’s rOn Thursday, as the strong US employment data dispelled the market's expectations of the Fed's recent rate cut, the US dollar index rose sharply before the US market, returned to above the 97 mark, and once rose to an intraday high of 97.42.
Spot gold fell sharply, once falling to $3311 during the session, a drop of more than $50 from the intraday high, and then recovered some of its losses and remained near 3330 for consolidation.
The current upper suppression position of the daily line is almost here at 3350, and the lower support is located at 3320-25.
So if it is maintained in the range of consolidation, it is likely to be rectified at 3320-50.
Secondly, from the hourly chart:
It can be seen from the trend of 3247 to 3365.
The Fibonacci 618 position is exactly here at 3320.
Although the lowest point last night was pierced to around 3311, it can be seen that the entity still closed above 3320.
As long as 3320 cannot be broken, the best case scenario is to maintain it at 3320-50 for consolidation. If not, once 3350 is broken, the high point of 3365 will definitely not be able to be maintained.
Therefore, for today's operation, try to maintain the high-selling and low-buying range of 3320-50.
Goldtechnicalanalysis
Revealed: Beware of a strong counterattack from gold bears!Perhaps due to the impact of the NFP market later, gold fluctuated relatively cautiously today, and neither the long nor the short side showed signs of breakthrough, and the overall trend remained volatile. However, as gold rebounded, the market bullish sentiment gradually tended to be optimistic. In the short term, the lower support area was relatively obvious, that is, the second pull-up point 3335-3325 area, followed by 3315-3305 area;
However, as gold rebounded twice and fell after touching 3365, the suppression above was also obvious. In the short term, it faced the suppression of 3375-3385 resistance. If gold cannot effectively break through this area, gold bears may make a stronger counterattack, so I don’t think gold bears have no chance at all.
Therefore, I think there is still a good profit opportunity to try to touch the top and short gold. You can consider trying to short gold in the 3365-3375-3385 area and look at the target: 3340-3330-3320.
7.3 Prediction of gold price fluctuation before non-agriculturalAfter the release of ADP data last night, gold prices resumed their rise and crossed the high of 3357.88 this week and closed near this position. Today, gold prices opened high and then fell back. Pay attention to the strength of the correction in the morning session and choose the opportunity to go long and bullish. From the current market perspective, the support below can focus on the low point of yesterday's US session near 3333, followed by 3327; before the release of non-agricultural data, the upper pressure will focus on the early trading start point 3366, followed by 3375. The operation in the Asian and European sessions is mainly to go long on the correction, and the high-altitude thinking is abandoned. Specific operation ideas: Go long and bullish when the gold price falls back to around 3338, protect the position of 3330, and the target is to see whether the early trading high of 3365 can break!
Gold Holds Ground as Bulls Eye $3,410 Volume ZoneGold built support at $3,337.2 in today's trading session. However, the uptrend is capped, and the price remained below the Bearish Fair Value Gap.
From a technical standpoint, XAU/USD outlook remains bullish above $3,337.2. In this scenario, the target is likely to be the next high volume area, which stands tall at $3,410.0.
Please note that the bullish outlook should be invalidated if Gold closes and stabilizes below the $3,337.2 support.
7.2 Technical Analysis of Gold Trading in the US MarketGold fluctuated in the range of 3326-3355 today on Wednesday. The small non-agricultural bullish gold broke through the 3345 line and hit the 3351 line, and then fluctuated back to the current 3342 to adjust the momentum of rising again. If the positive line on Wednesday closed above 3345, it will continue to rise to 3363-3370; if the negative line on the closing fell below the middle track, it will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in this range. The support of 3324 below is the key position tonight; as long as this position is maintained, the bulls will rebound and rise, otherwise they will fall into the battle for support at the 3295-3301 line.
Technical analysis:
From the 4-hour analysis, the support below is around 3324. The main bullish trend remains unchanged after the evening retracement. The important support is 3314-16, and the focus is on the long-short watershed position of 3295-3301. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to maintain the rhythm of retracement and bullish trend.
Gold bulls and bears compete for non-agricultural dataTechnical aspects:
Currently, gold is in a typical ascending triangle structure, reflecting that the market bullish trend has not been broken but faces strong resistance. On the daily chart, gold as a whole maintains a range of $3250 to $3400, with obvious horizontal support and resistance bands formed at both ends of the range.
The Bollinger Bands are converging as a whole, indicating that volatility is shrinking, indicating that the large-scale direction selection is approaching. The green column of the MACD indicator has narrowed slightly, and the short-term momentum is still bearish but there are signs of weakening. The RSI indicator runs around 49, maintaining a neutral and bearish state, and there is no obvious deviation in the short term, suggesting that there is still the possibility of subsequent shocks and consolidation.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Bearish Move From Resistance
Gold went overbought after a test of a key daily resistance cluster.
A formation of multiple bearish imbalance candles on an hourly time frame
signifies a local dominance of the sellers.
The price will continue retracing at least to 3323 support.
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I hold on to my short position and wait patiently.Currently, gold continues to rebound to around 3358, and there has been no decent retracement during the rebound, so during the trading period, apart from chasing the rise, there are almost no opportunities to go long on gold; so is the steady rise in gold during the day brewing a bigger rally?
I think there are three reasons for the continued rise of gold:
1. The continued weakness of the US dollar provides support for the strong rise of gold;
2. The trapped long chips have recently shown self-rescue behavior, and strong buying funds have driven gold up;
3. The market intends to eliminate and kill a large number of shorts in recent times;
Based on the above reasons, I think it is not a wise decision to chase gold at present; on the contrary, I still prefer to short gold in the short term, and I still hold a short position now; the following are the reasons to support my insistence on shorting gold:
1. The US dollar has a technical rebound demand after a sharp drop, which will limit the rebound space of gold and suppress gold;
2. After the recent trapped long chips successfully rescue themselves, they may cash out in large quantities, thereby stimulating gold to fall again;
3. While killing the shorts, the market has also lured a large number of long funds to a certain extent. Based on the above reasons, I currently still hold short positions near 3345 and 3355, and hope that gold can retreat to the 3335-3325 area.
7.2 Gold bulls continue to rise, bears come to an end temporarilFrom the 4-hour analysis, the upper focus is on the 3345 line of suppression, the lower short-term support focuses on the 3314-3316 line, and the key support of 3295-3301 line is focused on. The overall support is based on this range to maintain the main tone of low-multiple participation. In the middle position, watch more and do less, be cautious in chasing orders, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Gold 3316-24 line long, retrace to 3295-3303 line to add more positions, stop loss 3293, target 3340-45 line, continue to hold if broken;
GOLD (XAUUSD): Your Trading Plan for Monday
Gold went strongly rejected from a key daily support on Friday.
Your confirmation signal for a pullback trade from that will
be a bullish breakout and an hourly candle close above
3283 intraday resistance.
After that the price will likely reach 3292 level.
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Gold shorting opportunity not to be missedGold hit the key resistance of 3350 and then fell under pressure, reaching a low of 3309, and was temporarily supported by the low point on Wednesday. The intraday showed a pattern of rapid decline after a volatile rise, highlighting the long-short tug-of-war pattern. The hourly line fell again after a pullback to 3328, indicating that there is still room for short-term retracement. The current operation needs to focus on key points: short orders can be entered again near the pullback of 3328-3335. If the market continues to decline, focus on the support range of 3300-3290, and long orders can be arranged if it stabilizes. The overall idea of oscillation is maintained. Before effectively breaking through 3350 or losing 3290, high-altitude and low-long are still the main strategy.
Gold recommendation: short near 3328-3335, target 3315-3305
Gold Builds Bullish Momentum After $3,294.0 ReboundGold bounced from $3,294.0, forming a double bottom pattern as XAU/USD consolidates near $3,330.0. Stochastic has exited oversold territory, signaling strengthening bullish momentum.
If $3,294.0 holds as support, the uptrend may continue toward the $3,393.0 target.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Updated Support & Resistance Analysis
Here is my latest support and resistance analysis for Gold.
Horizontal Structures
Support 1: 3294 - 3312 area
Support 2: 3231 - 3287 area
Support 3: 3121 - 3176 area
Resistance 1: 3338 - 3368 area
Resistance 2: 3441 - 3451 area
Resistance 3: 3493 - 3500 area
Vertical Structures
Vertical Support 1: Falling trend line
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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The rebound is an opportunity to short goldAfter the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel and Powell's hawkish remarks that strongly refuted the possibility of a rate cut, gold fell sharply and hit a low near 3295. Although gold has rebounded, it is particularly difficult during the rebound process, which shows that the bulls are not willing to attack, and the rebound is only a technical repair of the decline.
Since gold fell below 3300 yesterday, the current bull structure has been changed in stages and the confidence of the bulls has been greatly weakened. As gold falls, it will be under pressure in the 3345-3355 area in the short term. Before gold breaks through this area, any rebound may give us an opportunity to short gold; in addition, after gold falls below 3300 once, in order to move downward and test support, gold has the need to retreat again.
So in the next short-term trading, we can try to use the 3345-3355 area as resistance, short gold appropriately, and look to the 3315-3305 area.
Stick to shorting gold and holding itAlthough gold has risen sharply to around 3375 in the short term due to the dovish remarks of Fed officials, it has not made an effective breakthrough. Therefore, gold has not reversed its trend due to the short-term rebound. Gold is still in an obvious short trend. In the short term, gold is obviously under pressure in the 3365-3375 area. If gold fails to break through this resistance area, then after gold consumes a certain amount of long energy, gold shorts will counterattack again and are expected to retreat to the 3350-3340 area again.
In the case that good news cannot support the continued rebound of gold, the market's bullish confidence will be hit again, and the short confidence will be further strengthened, stimulating gold to accelerate its decline, and it is even expected to fall below the 3350-3340 area. Therefore, in short-term trading, I still advocate shorting gold, and I am currently holding a short position in gold, and I look forward to the accelerated decline of gold as expected!
How to trade the Fed's interest rate decision!In nearly an hour, the Fed will announce the Fed's interest rate decision and a summary of economic expectations;
In nearly an hour and a half, Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.
If the Fed's policy statement or the latest forecast shows a dovish tendency, it may resume the downward trend of the US dollar, thereby supporting the upward trend of gold; and the recent mild inflation and weak employment data in the United States may prompt the Fed to soften its previous assessment, thereby strengthening expectations of interest rate cuts and providing support for gold prices.
From the current technical structure, gold maintains a volatile and anxious market during the day, and there is no clear direction in the short term, but gold is currently always below 3400, and the overall market is still in a weak trend; but gold has repeatedly touched the 3375-3365 area and can quickly recover, proving that there is still strong buying support below; in fact, it stands to reason that if gold is really weak, it should have continued to fall and touched the 3360-3350 area, but gold did not touch the area as expected, but used sideways trading to exchange time and space, and there was no sign of any downward breakthrough, so gold is likely to choose an upward direction.
In addition, the Middle East geopolitical crisis, global economic uncertainty, intensified trade frictions and rising inflation expectations will all provide structural support for gold. So if gold does not fall below the 3365-3355 area today, we will be bullish on gold first; but if gold cannot break through the 3410-3420 area in one fell swoop during the rise, then we need to be careful of the trend of gold rising and then falling.
As for how to trade the news next: the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The above are my trading ideas and opinions, you can read them carefully and use them as a reference! If you still want to trade news after careful consideration, please be sure to set SL during the transaction to protect your account to the greatest extent!
Gold is weak, and there may be a low point yet to come!According to the current structure, gold is obviously in a weak position. Gold has failed to break through the high point of the previous wave after multiple rebounds during the day. 3400 has become a new round of pressure area; and gold has just accelerated its decline and fell below 3370. For the current trend, falling below 3370 will weaken the bullish sentiment to a certain extent and indicate that there is further room for decline, so I think gold should have a low point, and the low point we should first pay attention to is in the range of 3365-3355.
So in terms of short-term trading,
First, we can try to short gold with the short-term resistance area of 3395-3405;
But if gold first retreats to the support area of 3365-3355, we can first choose to go long on gold.
Have you caught up with this golden opportunity?The 4-hour K-line pattern of gold shows that the upward trend remains intact, focusing on the strong support range of 3360-3365 (technical resonance with the 5-week moving average). Before the price effectively breaks below the support band, the bulls still have upward momentum, otherwise the trend may reverse. The 3365-3400 range is maintained for intraday fluctuations. The gold operation strategy recommends arranging long orders in the 3370-3375 area when the price falls back, and adding positions to long positions if the support of 3360-3365 is broken.
Operation strategy: Gold recommends going long near 3370-3375 now, and adding positions to long positions in the support area of 3360-3365 when the price breaks, with the target of 3380-3390.
If you still lack direction in gold trading, you might as well try to follow my pace. The strategy is open and transparent, and the execution logic is clear and definite, which may bring new breakthroughs to your trading. The real value does not rely on verbal promises, but is verified by the market and time.
Gold is expected to hit 3410-3420 againBecause of the news that Iran hopes to ease the hostile relationship with Israel, gold fell sharply in the short term, then rebounded after touching 3383, and quickly recovered above 3390. From this point of view, the buying support below is strong, and the market sentiment is still high, which limits the downside of gold, and the support of 3390-3380 area is still valid.
Although the bullish momentum of gold has weakened relatively due to the retracement in the short term, as long as gold remains above 3380, it still maintains a strong upward structure; and the retracement only exacerbates the short-term shock trend. Gold is still likely to maintain a shock upward structure and try to touch the 3410-3420 area again. Once gold breaks through 3420 strongly, it is expected to hit the area near 3450 again.
So for short-term trading, I still hold a long position in gold, and there is still a certain profit now. I have to say that if gold can reach the 3410-3420 area as expected, our profits will increase significantly!
Adjustments do not change the trend, continue to be bullishToday, gold opened high at 3448, and fell under pressure after reaching 3452. After repeatedly confirming resistance at high levels, it went down. We arranged short orders in the 3445-3450 area, successfully reached the target of 3330, and secured profits. Then the market fell back to around 3409 and stabilized and rebounded. We arranged long orders to stop profit near 3420. The current market is still in a bullish trend after the shock and retracement. Adjustment does not change the trend. Retracement is an opportunity. The key is to find the right entry point.
From a technical perspective, the support below focuses on the 3410-3405 area, and the key support is at 3400-3390. If the daily level stabilizes in the above area, the upward structure will continue, and the short-term is still expected to test the previous high. Short orders need to strictly control risks, and the trend of low and long is still the main theme.
Gold operation strategy: Buy gold when it falls back to around 3410-3405, and consider covering positions when it falls back to 3400-3395, with the target at 3430-3440.
For more real-time strategies, I will remind you at the key points as soon as possible,🌐 remember to pay attention!
If you still lack direction in gold trading, you might as well try to follow my pace. The strategy is open and transparent, and the execution logic is clear and definite, which may bring new breakthroughs to your trading. The real value does not rely on verbal promises, but is verified by the market and time.
Short positions fall as expected, long opportunities reappearToday, gold maintained high and fluctuated repeatedly after opening, but the upper side has not been effectively broken through. After repeated pressure, the resistance signal was confirmed. We arranged short orders near 3445. The market fell back as expected and accurately hit the target position. The trend was highly consistent with the prediction, which once again confirmed the trading concept of "planning before the market, execution before emotion".
From the current trend structure, gold is still in a bullish trend as a whole, and short-term adjustments are normal. The support below focuses on the 3420-3415 area, which is the first defense position for short-term retracement; and the more critical bullish defense line is still at the 3405-3400 line. If this area stabilizes, it is still our core layout area for low-multiples with the trend.
The daily structure is still intact, and the long arrangement of the moving average system has not been destroyed. Short-term fluctuations do not affect the overall bullish logic. Therefore, the operation is still based on retracement and main longs, and following the trend is the kingly way. Short orders can only be participated in the short term, and stop when you reach the point, and do not hold against the trend. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy at the bottom, and pay attention to it in time. The key next is to pay attention to the stabilization signals below and wait for the market to provide new opportunities for momentum release.
If you still lack direction in gold trading, you might as well try to follow my pace. The strategy is open and transparent, and the execution logic is clear and definite, which may bring new breakthroughs to your trading. The real value does not rely on verbal promises, but is verified by the market and time. 🌐
The golden opportunity comes again.This week, gold showed a slow bullish upward pattern, rising repeatedly and circuitously, and finally closed positive on the weekly line. On Friday, it was blocked twice at the high level of 3445, and the closing price remained sideways. The market is expected to continue the upward trend next week. If it breaks through 3445, it is expected to further challenge the 3500 mark or even set a new high. Combined with the recent fundamentals and the continued warming of the geopolitical situation, it provides solid support for bulls. However, the current market shock sweep is still the main rhythm, and it is not advisable to blindly chase highs in operation. It is still recommended to focus on retracement and long positions. The key support of the daily line refers to the top and bottom conversion position of 3403 and the low point of 3419 on Friday. If it falls back to the above area, you can rely on the support to arrange long positions at the right time. The overall trend is still inclined to bulls, and short positions can only be tried with a light position. Remember that strict risk control is required against the trend. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy at the bottom, and pay attention to it in time.
Operation suggestion: Gold is recommended to go long near 3405-3400, with the target looking at 3445 and 3465. If it is strong, rely on the support of 3420-3415 area and choose the opportunity to go long.
If you still lack direction in gold trading, you might as well try to follow my pace. The strategy is open and transparent, and the execution logic is clear and definite, which may bring new breakthroughs to your trading. The real value does not rely on verbal promises, but is verified by the market and time. 🌐
Bulls are in control, and pullbacks are opportunities!Gold rose directly at the opening today due to risk aversion, reaching a high of around 3446.8. We successfully stopped profit twice when we went long. Subsequently, we also notified everyone to enter short positions at 3445 and exit with profit at 3425. Pay attention to the support situation at 3395-3408. Going long on pullbacks is still the main trend at present.
From the current gold trend analysis, today's gold mid-line pulled up and broke through and stood above the 3400 mark to further continue its strength. The short-term support below is around 3310-3408, and the key support below is around the recent top and bottom conversion position of 3395-3405. The intraday pullback relies on this position to continue to be bullish and the short-term bullish dividing line moves up to 3345-3350. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to maintain the trend of low-long rhythm. Be cautious about short orders against the trend. I will give you tips on specific operations, and pay attention in time.
Gold operation strategy: Buy gold when it falls back to around 3395-3405, and target around 3425-3440. If it is strong, continue to buy gold at the support of 3410-3408.
When operating, be sure to strictly set stop loss, strictly control risks, and respond to market fluctuations steadily.