Goldtechnicalanalysis
GOLD Update !! Good day Traders !! On this multi-timeframe analysis we will make a full breakdown of this pair.
Monthly : We have just Completed an "M" formation and we already started the new impulse to the downside. We expect the price to retest the neckline before the continuation to the downside.
Weekly : We do have an "M" formation as well and we want to see a retest of the neckline before a potential continuation to the downside.
Daily : We have a "M" formation and we want to retest the neckline which is a very strong level of support that was broken during the previous week and it will act as a resistance now and magnet for short positions.
COT : Institution have been shorting GOLD massively since they added closed more than 30000 long positions and added close to 12000 short position during the last Month and previous reports.
We also looking at a bullish DXY since institutions have been adding long on the $ index during the previous weeks.
Now if you enjoyed this analysis smash that like button and share. If you have a different opinion please leave a comment below as I would love to get more insights and ideas. I also linked my previous idea about this asset.
Trade safe !!!
Gold : 1785-1800 psychological resistance level test is likely Spot gold is trading inside the hourly range 1765-1775 for the past two days indicating the investors are not yet ready to book the profit and also an upside break out to test the 1800 handle is highly likely . Investors will be looking for the FED Chair remarks later on today ,although there are fears in market regarding the virus threat escalation ,any hawkish comments from the FED chair will force the investors to book the profit hence force the yellow metal to test 1675 support medium term.
Medium Term Trend : Bullish
Resistance : 1725 & 1785
Support : 1675
Speculative Sentiment Index : 30/70 (Retail buyers/sellers ratio)
An Unseen Bullish Pattern For Gold is Forming?!It looks like Gold is forming an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern which is typically a bullish pattern. We can see that gold is trying to break the neckline of 1348 and per classic technical analysis theory the potential target of an H&S should be measured from the neckline to the lowest point of the Head, so if we take that line and put it at the expected breakout point, that would show a potential target of ~1500. Of course, I would expect some resistance and retracements along the way but technically that should be the target.
In case we can break above 1360 level and retest it as support that would be a major bullish sign for me.
We can also see from the VPVR indicator that the biggest resistance has already been cleared leaving us with huge support below.
Time will tell...let's see what happens.
Gold - Markets OutlookGold unexpectedly seems to be topping out after an impressive rally which started from the lows of Aug 2018 and a follow up clear uptrend year-start, up ~4% YTD. As the case may be, the far term Bullish projection of 1.350/1400 may still be in order albeit the short term bias turning Bearish tentatively. In light of this, Bigger Traders may just be waiting for fresh catalyst to come into the Markets which according to our timing should happen sometime in March 2019 where reasonable volatility is expected.
Trading opportunity
see chart.
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Gold: How long can Gold go down?" Let's buy Gold now. I cannot drop more"...Are you sure?
Let's take a look at the fundamentals and technicals:
We will continue with our latest chart.
Fundamentally:
The Market needs a catalyst to reverse the current trend. It is not realistic to be bullish on gold in the near term as the U.S. dollar and equity markets continue to dominate investor interest. Additionally, there is no physical demand for Gold. The U.S. dollar is unlikely to fall back because of growing trade tensions and further interest-rates hikes. DXY is above 95 and if it breaks above 95.50, a new scenario will begin.( You can check the attached DXY analysis) Under these circumstances, we do not think that Gold will have a sustainable recovery.
When can this environment change for Gold Market? The growing concern regarding U.S. economic growth in the second half of the year and ongoing global trade tensions rising could be the catalysts needed to reverse gold’s trend. But not now. Not in near term.
Technically:
All timeframes and indicators are bearish. As we have mentioned in our previous forecast, Gold tested 1204 and pulled back after US NFP. The Fractal Channel upper line tested. And Gold ended the week at 1213.
Our prediction is 1204 and 1198 will be tested in this environment.1180 can be the logical level to buy Gold. ( depending on the DXY )
We will just copy/paste from our latest analysis:
1204 and 1198 are the key levels. The problem will start if Gold 0.49% prices break below 1198. Fibonacci 61.8% of the latest Bullish Move – Nov 2105 Jul 2016 – will be the decision level: 1187 USD.
Key Levels on the SMALLER chart timeframes:
Downside: 1204 1198 1187
Upside: 1218 1234 1257
We will update for the members if we see any change in the picture.
You can read our previous Gold analysis to get a better idea.