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⤴️⤴️GPBUSD) bullish on the market) analysis)🖼️🚀The dollar crept higher on the first trading day of the year as attention turned to economic data this week that may provide clues on the Federal Reserve's next moves, while bitcoin surged ahead of $45,000 for the first time since April 2022. The dollar index DXY , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, fell 2% in 2023, snapping two years of gains. It was last at 101.44, up 0.059%, as investors weighed the prospect of the Fed cutting rates this year. The dollar's ascent weighed on the Japanese yen USDJPY the most, with the Asian currency down 0.35% at 141.36 per dollar, having slid 7% in 2023. Rescue teams in Japan on Tuesday struggled to reach isolated areas hit by a powerful earthquake on New Year's Day, with reports of more than 20 people dead in a disaster that toppled buildings and knocked out power to thousands of homes. Markets are now pricing in an 86% chance of interest rate cuts from the Fed to start from March, according to CME FedWatch tool, with over 150 basis points (bps) of easing anticipated in the year. "The question is when and how fast rate cuts will be delivered," Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said in a note. "Moderating price pressures and weaker growth impulses have seen the pendulum of market sentiment swing dramatically from the 'higher for longer' mantra of most of last year to pricing in aggressive easing" from central banks, Chandler said. The focus now switches to a slew of economic data due this week, including the data on job openings and nonfarm payrolls. Minutes from the last Fed meeting in December are scheduled for release on Thursday and will provide insight into the central bankers' thinking around rate cuts this year. "The positive sentiment from end-2023 may roll over into this week as all eyes turn to the U.S. jobs report on Friday," said Nicholas Chia, macro strategist at Standard Chartered. At its December policy meeting, the Fed adopted an unexpectedly dovish tone and forecast 75 basis points in rate reductions for 2024. That contrasted with other major central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE), which reiterated they will hold rates higher for longer. Still, traders are pricing in 158 bps of cuts by the ECB this year, while the BoE is also expected to cut rates by 144 bps in 2024. The euro EURUSD was down 0.13% to $1.103, inching away from the five-month peak of $1.11395 it touched last week. The single currency gained 3% last year, its first yearly gain since 2020. Sterling GBPUSD was last at $1.2729, up 0.05% on the day, having clocked its strongest performance last year since 2017 with a 5% gain, although a weakening economy and election uncertainty make a repeat performance unlikely. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar AUDUSD was up 0.35% at $0.68335. The New Zealand dollar NZDUSD was little changed at $0.63155. The crypto world started the year with a bang, with bitcoin BTCUSD touching a 21-month peak of $45,532 on rising expectations that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission would soon approve exchange-traded spot bitcoin funds.
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
GBPJPY) 4H) tame frame ) analysis)Speculation about when the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has been rife, but seen as more likely to come in January than December. Price action in JPY-related FX option markets isn't offering many clues, with increased demand and high volatility risk premiums for both meetings, and also for a speech by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Dec. 25. Deutsche shares sentiment with other banks who expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its current monetary policy framework in December, while hinting at an end to the NIRP at its Jan. 23 meeting. Deutsche attribute a 60% probability to hints being made. In terms of fundamentals, Deutsche believe that ending NIRP in January is appropriate because the forecast in the outlook report will change since the data already imply a virtuous circle in wages and prices. In terms of practicalities, it is because financial institutions would have sufficient time to prepare for it. Deutsche suspect that the BoJ will hint at the upcoming policy revision by including some key points in its statement; that it will assess and confirm the virtual circle between wages and prices by the January meeting, with the results to be published at the same time as the outlook report; and that, as a result of this assessment, the policy revision will be judged appropriate and it will continue to emphasize an accommodative policy stance and stable JGB markets even after the revision. Overnight expiry FXO implied volatility
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
2
Emergency alert for all gold bugsThe Month of May is days away from closing. A ‘shooting star’ candle is printing. Price action must climb up and over 2020 to prevent this candle from printing. Should it close as is then price action will correct 20% to 1550, for starters. This is not the bull market gold dealers are advertising (remember they are pulling it out the ground for 800 an ounce). And that is nothing before mentioning gurus all over the internet calling for 3k and beyond. Ww
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by without_worries
11
Gold Nears Six-Month Peak Amid Fed's Moderate Policy OutlookGold prices continue their positive trend for the fourth consecutive day, nearing a multi-month peak. The belief that the Federal Reserve has completed interest rate hikes and is initiating policy easing in 2024 remains supportive. From a technical perspective, the overnight breakthrough above the horizontal resistance at $2,008-$2,010 is considered a new catalyst for bullish traders. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart comfortably stay in the positive zone, indicating that there is still room before entering overbought conditions. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for gold prices is to the upside. Therefore, a potential next move targeting the examination of the next relevant resistance around $2,035 seems to be a plausible scenario. This momentum could further extend towards the intermediate hurdle at $2,048 on the way to the year-to-date peak, around the $2,078 level touched in May. On the flip side, the current breach of the resistance level at $2,010-$2,008 appears to immediately shield against downward pressure before reaching the $2,000 mark. Further selling pressure leading to a descent below the $1,988-$1,987 zone could pave the way for deeper losses. Gold prices might then swiftly descend towards the $1,978 zone on the way to the region of $1,967-$1,966 and the support area at $1,955. A convincing break below this level would expose the Simple Moving Average (SMA) 200-day, currently closing near the $1,942 area, and converging at $1,935-$1,934, encompassing the SMA 100 and 50 days.
TVC:GOLD
by shariebalhornz
GOLD SELL | Day Trading Analysis Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. Watch strong action at the current levels for BUY. GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity NZDCAD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝 Patience is the If You Have Any Question, Feel Free To Ask 🤗 Just follow chart with idea and analysis and when you are ready come in THE GROVE | VIP GROUP, earn more and safe, wait for the signal at the right moment and make money with us💰
TVC:GOLDShort
by TheGrove
38
The secret to making 200K profitHello everyone, this is Antonio. Because the original TradingView account expired, I stopped updating articles for a while.But my trading did not stop.To be honest, I am not a financial writer, but a loyal trader, so I pay more attention to combining the market to develop my own trading plans and trading signals, and I am keen to participate in market trading. Fortunately, in the past three months of trading, I have made a profit of more than$200K, which I think is a good number.Of course, I occasionally lose money during the trading process, but I have always been clear about my goals, strictly follow the trading plan, implement risk control management, loyal followers with a 95% winning rate, and strive to achieve the goal of a stable weekly profit of$20K.So one thing I often say is to walk with wealth and make a profit in the most correct way! For the current gold market, gold has now stepped out of the 1990-1980 price range and has chosen to run downwards. It is currently trading near the 1965 position.Then according to the current trend structure, gold has not shown a low point, then gold will still seek support downwards, and gold is bound to touch the 1953 position, or even near the 1945 position.Then when we participate in gold trading, we only need to follow the trend and short gold at high levels.The top first pays attention to the resistance of the 1974-1976 area, and the bottom first observes the defense of the 1960 position. In fact, as long as you grasp the rhythm, it is easy to profit from gold trading. If you don't know the exact rhythm of trading, you can execute it according to my trading ideas.I will post my trading ideas every day, and I will also post free trading signals on time.Many friends have very helpful feedback.If you want to learn the logic of market trading, or you want clear trading signals and get more profits, I can satisfy you, be sure to follow the bottom of the article to view the details!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Super_Antonio
1
Gold buy confirm signals Gold price defended the rising trendline support at $1,978 on Monday. But sellers have flexed their muscles, teasing an ascending triangle breakdown on the daily chart early Tuesday. If Gold price manages to yield a daily closing below the rising trendline support, now at $1,981, a downside break from the ascending triangle will be confirmed. Immediate cushion is seen at a November 1 low of $1,970. A failure to resist above the latter will target a bullish 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1,966. Gold buy now 1973 Target 1977 Target 1981 Target 1991 SL 1963
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Stiven770
3
💡GOLDOZ: Anxiously waiting for NonfarmThe positive sentiment in the stock market is a significant obstacle for gold prices. Conversely, declining US Treasury yields, a weakening US dollar, and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates further could support an increase in gold prices. Furthermore, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas and global economic conditions are factors that favor a bullish outlook for safe-haven gold. Gold appears poised to continue its recent recovery and gain momentum on Thursday. Additionally, the MACD histogram and double line on the H4 chart seem to be forming a double bottom. Although higher interest rates can negatively impact gold due to increased opportunity costs, some investors may still choose to hold gold as a hedge against uncertainty.
TVC:GOLD
by Stone_Haven
💡GOLDOZ: Signs of decline are forming?Gold had its second consecutive day of price decline after the news Employment Cost Index q/q and CB Consumer Confidence were announced. The H1 gold price push down has broken through the accumulation price range above to go down, but has not created a new low price bottom and broken the latest bottom, so it has not created a downtrend. With the current downward pressure on prices, H1 gold can wait for a rebound to sell. If the price is pushed up to the old peak, it is a sign that H1 gold is stronger again, then you can wait to buy.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Stone_Haven