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Detailed Gold Analysis - Whats happening! Retail Traders panic?Hi Traders, Friday trading just finished and my god, I was very surprised at how badly metals were beaten up... Granted Silver was the better of the bad bunch but still! Absolute massacre... Now you may be thinking? Surely gold will rebound now? Short answer... is maybe? Why am I saying this? - Here is the COT Report for this week. Non-Commercial Commercial Total Non-Reportable Long Short Spreads Long Short Long Short Long Short (CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES) Open Interest: 435,620 235,560 119,745 44,003 110,844 245,680 390,407 409,428 45,213 26,192 Changes (Change In Open Interest: -2,458 ) -2,156 +17,192 -2,424 +830 -17,266 -3,750 -2,498 +1,292 +40 So the market is on the healthier balance when it comes to longs vs shorts and no longer in that extreme zone. - Now the 17,000 short positions must have been institutions repositioning for October - December where gold is at it's strongest, pushing the price lower on purpose to break people's stop losses to then bounce back. Looking at fundamentals of multiple incursions happening across the world + stagflation and risk of WWIII and risk of Total economy collapse (cough, China, Cough) I have a baseline that gold should stabilise around 1860 - 1840 mark... Now the counter argument? - Gold capitulation because of higher for longer on yields... and Gold absolutely hates higher Yields! Why would someone buy Gold if they can just put it in a bank and get bigger % return. NAME COUPON PRICE YIELD 1 MONTH 1 YEAR TIME (EDT) GB3:GOV 3 Month 0.00 5.30 5.45% 0 +215 4:59 PM GB6:GOV 6 Month 0.00 5.31 5.54% +1 +165 4:59 PM GB12:GOV 12 Month 0.00 5.16 5.45% +7 +152 4:59 PM GT2:GOV 2 Year 5.00 99.92 5.04% +15 +85 4:59 PM GT5:GOV 5 Year 4.63 100.07 4.61% +33 +59 4:59 PM GT10:GOV 10 Year 3.88 94.52 4.57% +45 +78 4:59 PM GT30:GOV 30 Year 4.13 90.83 4.70% +47 +98 4:59 PM What can we see from this, that we have yields aggressively pushed through YTD highs, and we are now in the fear of the unknown. Weak US economic data will provide headwind for the yields and the dollar, but FED speak is counter balancing this heavily. So for now? Do put any long term bets just yet on Gold, day trade, buy off bottoms and stop loss below daily lows at this point is the only option and scalp the hell out of it until it breaks back across 1885, then you can recommence rebuying gold in large quantitites. SHORT TERM OUTLOOK (1 - 6 months) Neutral to Bearish LONG TERM OUTLOOK (6months +) Bullish with price target in 2024 Q2 to be $2000 mark.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradeXMBL
Gold prices skyrocketed because of conflicts in the Middle East After Hamas' surprise military attack on Israel last weekend, safe-haven demand for gold increased sharply. Thereby, December gold price increased by 18.40 USD, to around 1,863.40 USD/ounce. Besides, the gold market is also being affected by US macroeconomic data about to be announced this week. Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodity broker at RJO Futures, said that the upcoming release of US CPI data will show that inflation is starting to weaken and that will be good for gold. Pavilonis predicts that gold prices may increase in the near future. Meanwhile, Marc Chandler, CEO at Bannockburn Global Forex, said the gold market needs more economic data to confirm the sustainability and clearer direction of the market. According to Chandler, currently the gold market is still mainly affected by the strength of the USD and bond yields, not the gold purchasing activities of central banks. He believes that gold will have to move above the level of 1,833 - 1,835 USD/ounce to stabilize the current trend.
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
1
Going long gold is profitable as expectedThe trading ideas I gave you today are still based on long gold at low levels, and I remind you to do long gold around the short-term support position today. The first support position we focus on is the 1846-1844 area.We were long gold around this area. Gold has now successfully touched my expected profit target position of 1854. Congratulations to all of us on our first victory of the week today. Gold has been affected by the geopolitical situation. So far, gold has reached a high of around 1855. According to the current structural trend of gold, the upper suppression point of gold is around 1865, followed by the 1877-1875 area. Therefore, 1855 is definitely not the highest point of this round of gold rebound. I expect gold may hit around 1865 and maybe even hit the resistance area around 1875. Therefore, in the next short-term trading, we will mainly be long gold at low levels. In addition, CPI data will be released this week. This data will be the highlight of our gold trading. I believe that as long as we seize this opportunity, we will reap profits beyond expectations. In fact, as long as you grasp the rhythm, it is easy to profit from gold trading. If you don't know the accurate trading rhythm, you can follow my trading ideas. I post my trading ideas every day and I also post free trading signals on a regular basis. Many friends have given feedback that it is very helpful. If you want to learn market trading logic, or you want clear trading signals and get more profits, I can satisfy you. Be sure to follow the bottom of the article to view the details!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trader_Antonio
Pay attention to long gold at low levelsYesterday, I and everyone made a summary of our transactions in the past three months. In the past three months of transactions, although we sometimes suffered losses, overall, we achieved pretty good results.We made a profit of $170K. Although this number is not huge, I am still quite satisfied. Affected by the geopolitical situation, gold has so far reached a high of around 1855. According to the current structural trend of gold, the upper suppression point of gold is around 1865, followed by the 1877-1875 area. Therefore, 1855 is definitely not the highest point of this round of gold rebound. Gold may hit near 1865 and may even hit the resistance area near 1875. Therefore, in the next short-term trading, we will mainly be long gold at low levels, focusing on the support in the 1840-1838 area. In fact, as long as you grasp the rhythm, it is easy to profit from gold trading. If you don't know the accurate trading rhythm, you can follow my trading ideas. I post my trading ideas every day and I also post free trading signals on a regular basis. Many friends have given feedback that it is very helpful. If you want to learn market trading logic, or you want clear trading signals and get more profits, I can satisfy you. Be sure to follow the bottom of the article to view the details!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trader_Antonio
Would the Middle East Conflict Push Gold and Oil Prices Higher?NYMEX: WTI Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ), COMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) Over the weekend, military conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestine shocked the world. I condemn violence against civilians and pray for the victims and their families. In the following paragraphs, I will discuss how the prices of strategically important commodities, namely gold and crude oil, might respond to the eruption of a global crisis. Firstly, let’s look back into the recent past for those crises arising to a global scale. In the last five years, the world has witnessed three major crises of very different natures: • US-China Trade Conflict: from January 2018 to January 2020, the world’s two largest economies imposed import duties to each other in a series of escalating actions and retaliations. A major event occurred on September 18, 2018, where President Trump added 10% tariff on nearly all Chinese-made products. The US-China trade conflict forever altered the global supply chain, with its impact being felt till today. • Covid-19, the most severe pandemic in a century, from its outbreak in January 2020 to 2021. A big event that sparked market fear occurred on February 2, 2020, where the US imposed travel restrictions on incoming air passengers. • Russia-Ukraine Conflict: the first military conflict in Europe since World War II, from February 14, 2022, till now. Secondly, let’s measure how gold and WTI crude oil responded to these crises. For my analysis, I denote the day before Event Day as T0, where we may find last market prices before the impact hit. Event Day will be T+1, and then 1-week after (T+7), 1-month after (1M), 3-month after (3M), all the way through 1-year after (1Y). Here are what I found: US-China Trade Conflict • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,201.90 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -0.1% (T+1), +0.1% (T+7), +2.3% (1M), +3.3% (3M), +8.6% (6M), +11.6% (9M), +25.0% (1Y) • Comment: Trade tension between US and China could push the global economy into a recession. Gold, a safe-haven asset, saw its market value growing 25% in a year. • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $69.86 per barrel • Price changes by time: +1.2% (T+1), +6.3% (T+7), +4.3% (1M), -27.7% (3M), -14.2% (6M), -24.6% (9M), -8.4% (1Y) • Comment: High tariff raised the price consumers had to pay, hence reducing demand. Crude was down 28% three months after the all-in tariff was imposed. Covid Pandemic • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,574.75 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -1.0% (T+1), -0.1% (T+7), +2.6% (1M), +8.5% (3M), +24.4% (6M), +21.2% (9M), +16.6% (1Y) • Comment: We saw the biggest stock market selloff in March 2020. Gold price was down initially as stock traders needed to raise money and meet margin calls. However, a flight to safety eventually took place, and gold was up 24% in six months. • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $53.09 per barrel • Price changes by time: -5.0% (T+1), -11.9% (T+7), -77.1% (1M), -61.4% (3M), -23.1% (6M), -31.1% (9M), +0.9% (1Y) • Comment: Rapid Covid outbreaks stroke fear. Lockdowns put global activities to a pause. The pandemic wiped out oil demand, with WTI falling 80% in a month. April 20, 2020 made history as oil price of the expiring contract went below zero. As storage cost more than selling price, traders were willing to pay others to take away the crude for free. Russia-Ukraine Conflict • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,854.60 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -2.5% (T+1), -2.5% (T+7), +6.5% (1M), -1.8% (3M), -2.8% (6M), -5.0% (9M), +5.0% (1Y) • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $91.25 per barrel • Price changes by time: +4.7% (T+1), +5.3% (T+7), +30.7% (1M), +12.90 (3M), +1.1% (6M), +0.6% (9M), -17.2% (1Y) • Comment: A major military conflict in Europe significantly raised the global risk level. Gold, the safe-haven asset, and crude oil, an energy commodity critically important in wartime, both went up in the first month, by 6.5% and 30.7%, respectively. • However, the impact was short-lived. On March 16, 2022, the Fed begin hiking interest rates, which has become the driving force in global market. Impact from Russia-Ukraine became a secondary factor and sat in the back burner. To sum up the above examples, I observe that gold prices usually go up in the aftermath of a global crisis. Crude oil has a mixed bag of reactions. If a crisis results in economic recession and a consequential reduction in oil demand, oil prices would go down. However, in the case of a major war, oil price would go up due to its strategic importance. Review: Event-driven Strategy focusing on Global Crises In June 2022, I introduced a three-factor pricing model for commodities futures: Commodities Futures Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Crisis Premium Intrinsic Value is the baseline cash price of the underlying commodities, determined by available supply, demand, inventory, shipping costs, and factors affecting these variables. Market Sentiment indicates if investors are bullish or bearish. Whether speculative investors place more money on the long side or the short side affects the price of a futures contract. Market sentiment could be either positive or negative, resulting in a price premium or a discount of the intrinsic value. The new Crisis Premium factor captures “Event Shock” during a global geopolitical crisis. Previous trade example: Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 28% of global wheat export. Wheat price shot up by 75% following the start of the conflict. I designed a Long Strangle options strategy on CBOT Wheat futures, and simultaneously bought out-of-the-money (OTM) call and put options. A “risk-on” outcome could push wheat price higher, making the calls more valuable, where a “risk-off” outcome would pull wheat price back down, making the puts in-the-money (ITM). Trading Opportunities with Micro Gold Since the September FOMC meeting, gold prices suffered a 6.3% drawdown, sending the futures price from $1,969 to $1,845. Friday settlement price was nearly 9% below the yearly high. On the one hand, high-interest money market funds beat out non-interest-yielding gold investment; on the other hand, strong dollar raised the cost of gold purchase by foreign investors. As a result, gold prices have been under pressure. However, my analysis illustrates that gold prices could rise in response to geopolitical conflicts. Since its founding, Israel had five major wars with its Arab neighbors. We do not know whether this time it would be contained as a regional conflict or spark a chain reaction of a global war. By the intensity of how it started, it doesn’t seem like a short one. To express a view of rising gold prices, we could consider a long position in COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ). The December contract (MGCZ3) was settled at $1,845. Each contract has a notional value of 10 troy ounces, or $18,450 at market price. CME Group requires an initial margin of $780 per contract. Hypothetically, if gold futures go back up to $2020, its yearly high, the $175 ($2020-$1845) price increase would translate into $1,750 for a long futures position. If gold price goes down instead, each dollar of decline would result in a loss of $10 per contract. Alternatively, we could consider the newly launched Micro Gold Options. A Long Strangle Options Strategy, where simultaneously buying OTM calls or puts, could be deployed if we expect a big move in gold price, but not certain of its direction. Trading Opportunities with WTI Crude Oil Since June, WTI crude oil first staged a nearly 40% rise, from $67 going to $93. However, it has seen a 9% drawdown since the Fed meeting on September 20th. A major military conflict in the Middle East, the world’s most important oil producing region, threatens to interrupt oil supply and push up oil price. If the conflict is escalated to involve major oil exporting nations, the situation could be dire. To express a view of rising crude price, we could consider a long position in NYMEX WTI Futures ( NYSE:CL ). The December contract (CLZ3) was settled at $83.18. Each contract has a notional value of 1,000 barrels, or $83,180 at market price. CME Group requires an initial margin of $6,186 per contract. Hypothetically, if WTI futures go up above $100, which we saw from February to July 2022 in the first months of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the $17 price increase would translate into $17,000 for a long futures position. If crude oil price goes down instead, each dollar of decline would result in a loss of $1000 per contract. Similarly, the newly launched Micro WTI Options could express a view that a big move in oil price is expected, without knowing its direction. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
35
Dead Cat Bounce with Gold before the next crash to $1,710Bear market rally is forming with Gold. We are seeing a somewhat recovery. But the overall medium term trend is down. And we need to act accordingly to the major trends. This is a normal Dead Cat Bounce. And the ONLY way it will prove me wrong, is if it breaks out of the downtrend which will start a new uptrend. So what could cause this uptrend? 1. Safe haven status becomes strong with gold again. 2. Israel and Palestine war over commercialises the public and people start taking their money out of stocks and risky assets and into Gold. 3. World stock markets crash and people can't help but invest in gold... But right now, the trend is DOWN. So we'll stick with this trend and look for shorts only.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Timonrosso
XAUUSD: Gold’s decline has come to an end, 1815 lows are bullishAlthough the data for gold were negative yesterday, the market did not continue to reach a new low, which also proved what was said yesterday that the market will start to fluctuate and adjust! If the weak is no longer weak, it will turn strong. Gold is still bullish at low prices today. Go long at 1815! It can be seen from the 4-hour trend of gold that it has been declining before, and the strength of the rebound is very small! Each rebound encounters resistance from the Bollinger Band mid-rail pressure for 4 hours and then begins to fall. However, the market has begun to change in the past three days. Although it is still subject to the suppression of Bollinger's middle track, it no longer breaks new lows! When things go awry, there must be a demon. Today's strong decline can hardly continue to a new low, which means that the market is about to change! And today is the day when the big non-agricultural data is released. With the right time, right place and right people, the market can turn around at any time! The low-long position started in early trading, and the upper pressure continued to focus on 1833. If it breaks through, the rebound will be established!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nick_John
2
Gold tends to decreaseWorld gold prices tend to increase in the first trading session of the week. Wall Street analysts and retail investors are evenly split on the outlook for gold prices this week. After a series of days of losses since the US Federal Reserve (FED) kept interest rates unchanged on September 20 and after the US employment report pushed spot gold prices to a new 7-month low of 1810.46 USD, gold is finally showing signs of positive recovery. Meanwhile, Mr. James Stanley - senior market strategist at Forex.com said that gold will maintain its recent price range but cannot increase in price, and the precious metal may even probe its low level this week. This. TVC:GOLD SELL 1850 -1852 ✔️TP1: 1844 ✔️TP2: 1838 ❌SL: 1856
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
BIG Potential Long For Gold/ XAUUSD This Week !Weekly Candle has bounced off the weekly support area. Daily candle closed bullish engulfing after Fridays Non Farm Payroll numbers were released. This supports a bullish bias going into the new week. We can expect a continuation to 1850 and 1862 in the next couple days. 15 Minute chart has taken sellside and then given us a market structure shift as annotated. The market structure shift has caused displacement and left behind an FVG which was then tapped into on Friday post NFP. We have a new untapped fair value gap which resides below the equal lows on the 15 minute chart. This is likely the next draw on liquidity before the next move to the upside. I'd like to see price sweep the lows and then run for the breakout of the m15 bullish flag that is currently forming. A breakout will be the confirmed entry in to the run for 1850 and 1862 which is the next H4 FVG / imbalance area. Hope you guys catch this great opportunity with me. Shakeel_SS.FX
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Shakeel_SSFX
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) Long Term Buying Trading IdeaHello Traders In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today Gold analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (GOLD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GOLD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ForexPlanet20
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) Long Term Buying Trading IdeaHello Traders In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today Gold analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (GOLD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GOLD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ForexPlanet20