Start buying gold, a rebound may come at any time!Gold is undoubtedly weak at present, and bears have the upper hand. However, since gold touched the 3290-3280 area, gold bears have made more tentative moves, but have never really fallen below the 3290-3280 area, proving that as gold continues to fall, bears have become more cautious.
From the perspective of gold structure, multiple technical structural supports are concentrated in the 3285-3275 area, which makes it difficult for gold to fall below this area easily. After gold has failed to fall below this area, gold is expected to build a short-term bottom structure with the help of multiple supports in this area, thereby stimulating bulls to exert their strength and a rebound may come at any time.
Therefore, in the short term, I do not advocate chasing short gold; instead, I prefer to try to find the bottom and go long gold in the 3290-3280 area; but we should note that because gold is currently in an obvious short trend, we should appropriately reduce the expectation of gold rebound, so we can appropriately look at the rebound target: 3305-3315 area.
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Technical analysis guide for gold in the US market!Technical aspects:
The gold daily chart shows an obvious shock consolidation structure, and is currently running between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands, with an overall weak trend. Since hitting a high of $3499.83, the market has fallen into a sideways consolidation range, with top resistance concentrated in the $3400-3450 range and bottom support at $3250. The recent price retracement to around 3250 failed to effectively break below, forming an important support level.
The MACD indicator crossover continues, the green column is enlarged, the double lines are downward, and the momentum is weak. The RSI indicator runs around 44, and does not show oversold or rebound signals. The price is still in a weak consolidation stage. Analysts believe that if it falls below the 3250 line, it may open up further correction space, and pay attention to the 3170 area support; on the upside, if it can effectively stand above 3400, it is expected to retest the 3450 line high.
7.9 Gold long and short switches frequently!From the daily chart, the overall gold price is still in a weak position, the moving average is hooked, and the upper pressure is near the moving average 3319. Only if it breaks through and stands firm at this position during the day, can the bulls start to exert their strength. It happens that the MA10 position of H4 is also near 3319. At present, H4 is in a bearish trend, so the bullish pressure is still very large, but it rose in the early morning, and it bottomed out and rebounded. Combined with the recent non-continuation of the long and short trends, there is a high probability of rebounding during the day, so we can go long in the Asian session first, and go long directly at the current price of 3300, add positions to 3295, defend 3286, and look at 3312-19. The focus is still on the strength of the European session. If the European session is strong, continue to go long before the US session retreats; if the European session is weak, the US session will bottom out and rebound!
Gold lures shorts, mainly depending on the rebound.On Monday, the gold market rebounded. The root cause was that Trump sent tariff letters to 14 countries at one time. Even allies such as Japan and South Korea were not spared and were subject to high tariffs of 25% to 40%. This "extreme pressure" trade method instantly ignited the market's risk aversion sentiment. Funds poured into gold, pushing up gold prices. The market quickly saw through the "routine". On Tuesday, Trump extended the tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1. This delay was seen as a signal of "surrendering" under trade pressure, and trade tensions were eased. The safe-haven demand dissipated like a receding tide, and gold was sold off violently, plummeting by $35 in a single day, a drop of more than 1%, and the lowest fell to $3,287.2 per ounce.
On Tuesday, the price of gold showed a trend of rising and falling. It reached a high of 3245 in the morning and then gradually fell. It fell to 3287 and then stopped falling and rebounded. As it failed to break through the key resistance level of 3345 and the price continued to be unable to stand firm on the middle track, the bulls' rebound momentum was insufficient. Yesterday's daily line closed with a large Yin line in the engulfing pattern. This K-line combination indicates that the gold price may continue to fall today. The focus below is on the support strength near the lower track 3280. The upper resistance level needs to pay attention to the 3320-3330 range. Today's daily closing is crucial. If the real big Yin line continues to close, it may drive the Bollinger Band to open downward and further open up the downward space; if the closing can stand above 3330, the short-term downward trend may end and the market is expected to restart the rise. From the weekly perspective, the gold price showed an obvious oscillation pattern this week. After rising on Monday, it fell back on Tuesday. The bulls and bears fought fiercely but failed to gain a decisive advantage. Although the current market is weak, the price is close to the important support area. In terms of operations, it is recommended that under the premise of controlling risks, you can now pay attention to the opportunities to buy on dips in the 3295-3285 area.
Buy Gold! The short-term bottom may have appeared!Gold continued to retreat yesterday and hit a recent low, reaching around 3287. Then gold gradually rebounded to above 3300. Relatively speaking, the rebound momentum was weak. It is expected that the long and short sides will fight fiercely around 3300. However, from the recent characteristics of gold operation, it can be seen that although the short position of gold is strong, it is difficult to continue in the short term, and I think the short-term decline of gold is basically in place, so at this stage, in terms of short-term trading, I do not advocate shorting gold directly;
As gold did not continue to fall after reaching around 3287, on the contrary, it gradually rebounded to above 3300, which may strengthen the market's consensus on the short-term bottom, thereby attracting the favor of off-site funds; from the current gold structure, if gold can maintain above 3300-3295, it may be combined with the 3287 low to build a "W" double bottom structure, which is conducive to supporting the rebound of gold.
However, as gold fell below 3300 again, the bearish trend is relatively strong, so we need to moderately lower our expectations for a gold rebound. In the short term, gold is under pressure in the 3315-3325 area, so we can temporarily look to this area for the rebound target. Therefore, in short-term trading, I do not advocate shorting gold directly, and you can first consider going long on gold in the 3300-3295 area, TP: 3310-3320-3330.
Hold more than 3320 gold orders and wait patiently for the riseWe arranged a long order at 3320. Obviously, the market has given us an opportunity. After entering the long order, we should set a stop loss and wait patiently for the profit to be released. This is what we have to do, so there is no other idea and we are still bullish.
The current market has a clear rhythm, and the support is effective. In the short term, it is still a bullish structure. The structure is not broken and the direction remains unchanged. We will continue to advance the trading rhythm as planned.
🔸 Hold long orders near 3320, and the stop profit is 3335-3345 unchanged.
🔸 Strictly implement the trading plan, keep a stable rhythm, and wait for the market to realize the space.
Trade within the plan, rhythm first, keep an eye on the key points, and leave the rest to the market.
The intraday low has already appeared, so go long on gold boldlyGold unexpectedly fell sharply to around 3287. To be honest, the short position is relatively strong. However, since gold fell below 3000, we can clearly see that gold has shown strong resistance to falling during the decline, and the volatility tends to converge around 3287, proving that the buying support below is strong; and as gold continues to retreat, the off-market wait-and-see funds will be more willing to go long on gold; and some short positions will be more willing to go long on gold after profit taking;
In addition, although the short position is strong, it is difficult to continue in the short term. The intraday decline is basically in place. It is estimated that 3287 is the intraday low, so at this stage, it is inconvenient for us to continue to chase short gold. On the contrary, we can boldly go long on gold in the 3305-3295 area and look at the target area: 3320-3330.
After repeated tug-of-war, where will gold go?At present, the gold market is divided between long and short positions. The Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates, which weakens the investment appeal of gold; however, trade frictions and geopolitical risks provide safe-haven support for gold. Overall, market sentiment is mixed, with bulls lacking confidence, but bears have not been able to fully control the situation. Last week's strong non-farm data reduced market expectations for a rate cut in July, pushing up U.S. bond yields and the dollar, putting pressure on gold, which does not generate interest. In addition, Trump said on social media that he would impose a 10% tariff on countries that "support anti-U.S. policies." The market is waiting for the release of the minutes of the Fed's June meeting, which will more clearly show policymakers' views on the current economic situation and future policies, and may determine the direction of interest rates. If the minutes show that the Fed is inclined to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time, gold prices may continue to face downward pressure.
From a technical perspective, gold was under pressure at a high level at the opening, so gold is expected to fall today. Today's key pressure level is 3345. Before the price effectively breaks through and stabilizes at 3345, any rebound is a short-selling opportunity; once it stabilizes at 3345, the bottom pattern is confirmed to be established, and the bulls will start an upward market. At this time, the short-selling idea should be abandoned. From a technical point of view, the 1-hour chart has shown a trend from weak to strong, and the Bollinger Bands are opening and diverging upward, indicating that the market may accelerate upward. Today's operation suggestion is to focus on low-long and high-short as a supplement. In terms of specific points, the lower support is 3327-3320, and the upper resistance is 3355-3360.
Operation strategy:
1. It is recommended to buy gold when it rebounds to around 3327-3320, with the target at 3340-3350.
2. It is recommended to sell gold when it rebounds to around 3345-3355, with the target at 3330-3320.
Gold is expected to regain bullish momentum and continue to 3360Yesterday, gold rebounded from 3296 and was able to reach around 3345. Although the process was rather painful, we have to admit that gold bulls still have the energy to wrestle with bears, and the gold market is not one-sidedly dominated by bears. As gold gradually tested and confirmed the effectiveness of support during the retracement process and then rebounded effectively, the short-term structure of gold gradually changed and began to favor bulls.
After gold hit bottom and rebounded yesterday, we can clearly see from the short-term structure that gold has successfully constructed a head and shoulders bottom structure in the three areas of 3295-3244-3296 in the short term, thus playing an absolute supporting role in the structure; and in the process of repeated testing of gold, there are signs of constructing a head and shoulders bottom structure in the three areas of 3310-3296-3325 locally again. Under the effect of the structural support resonance of the head and shoulders bottom, gold may not go below 3320 again, and may even regain the bullish trend and continue to the 3345-3355 area.
So I think there is a lot of profit potential in going long on gold. We can go long on gold with the 3330-3320 area as support and look towards the target area: 3340-3350-3360
Below 3360, short sellers still have profit potential!Although gold has steadily rebounded to around 3345, compared with yesterday's gold falling below 3330 again, the rebound in the short term is not strong; overall, gold is still in a weak and volatile pattern, with pressure from the upper side at 3350-3360; and there is technical buying support in the lower 3300-3290 area. It is under the influence of the resistance area and the support area that gold lacks continuity.
So before gold breaks through effectively, I think both the long and short sides of gold have profit potential, so for the current short-term trading, we can temporarily maintain the high-sell-low-dregs trading within the range.
1. Consider shorting gold in batches with 3345-3365 as resistance, TP: 3330-3320-3310;
2. Consider going long gold in batches with 3325-3305 as support, TP: 3345-3355-3365
The short position is losing money. What should we do?Gold hit the intraday low of around 3296 and then began to rebound. We can see that the rebound of gold is not strong, but it is relatively sustained, so gold has rebounded to around 3335. To be honest, I did short gold according to my plan and still hold a short position.
Although gold has rebounded to around 3330, I don’t think my short gold trade has failed. As I said in the previous point of view, gold is facing technical suppression of the head and shoulders in the short term, which will suppress the rebound limit within the 3335-3340 area. So before gold stabilizes at 3340, I think the gold shorts still have the upper hand. So as long as gold stays below 3340, I think the gold rebound is a good opportunity to short gold.
At present, gold is facing the resistance area of 3335-3340 and begins to show signs of stagflation. After consuming a certain amount of bullish momentum, the gold shorts may counterattack strongly again and stimulate gold to fall rapidly. Therefore, before gold breaks upward through the 3335-3345 area, we can still consider shorting gold, or continue to hold a short position in gold!
Seize the correction: It’s the right time to short goldThe current rebound is only a technical adjustment rather than a trend reversal. The rebound in the falling market is a good opportunity to arrange short orders. The hourly chart shows that the moving average pressure continues to move down to around 3340-3345. This position also serves as the long-short watershed in the previous intensive trading area, forming a key resistance barrier. If the gold price rebounds and approaches the area below 3345 and a stagflation signal appears or a top structure is formed, it can be regarded as a clear short signal. It is recommended to enter the market to seize the downward space. The current market direction is clear, and the exhaustion of the rebound is the best time to enter the market. Relying on the technical pressure level, the short position can be accurately arranged.
Gold fluctuates repeatedly, how to seize the opportunityIf the direction is right, you are not afraid of the long journey. Use time to witness your strength, use your strength to win the future, let trust become profit, and use profit to resolve doubts. The market is changing rapidly, and going with the trend is the kingly way. When the trend comes, just do it, don't go against the trend to buy at the bottom, so as not to suffer. Remember not to act on impulse when trading. The market is good for all kinds of dissatisfaction, so you must not hold orders. I believe many people have experienced this. The more you resist, the more panic you will feel, and the floating losses will continue to magnify, making you eat and sleep poorly, and you will miss many opportunities in vain. If you also have these troubles, then you might as well follow my pace and try to see if it can make you suddenly enlightened.
Gold is concerned about the short-term pressure of the 3316 line above, and focuses on the pressure of the 3325 line. If the pressure above the 3325 line is not broken, then the possibility of gold further breaking through the lower space to 3295-3300 in the short term will also increase significantly. Therefore, the main line of gold operation is still based on holding shorts and rebounding shorts. Gold can rebound to the 3316 line and 3325 line before considering participating in short shorts. In terms of operation, we first pay attention to the support of the 3295-3300 line. If the lower support is broken today, the market will reverse to the short side. Otherwise, we will continue to rebound from the bottom and look for opportunities to go long.
From the current trend of gold, pay attention to the support of the 3300-3295 line below, the short-term resistance above pays attention to the vicinity of 3316, and focus on the suppression of the line near 3325. The overall main tone of high-altitude low-multiple cycle participation remains unchanged. In the mid-line position, keep watching and do less, follow orders cautiously, keep the main tone of participating in the trend, and patiently wait for key points to participate.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Go long on gold around 3330-3295, target 3315-3320.
2. Go short on gold around 3315-3325, target 3305-3300.
The bears will take the 3290-3280 area stronglyGold started to fall from 3342 during the day and fell below 3300 at one point. Gold is in an obvious short position, and during the London market, gold continued its downward momentum without any decent rebound. Gold is in an extremely weak state. In the absence of a rebound in the London market, I think New York is very likely to continue to fall.
According to the current structure, gold is facing technical suppression of the head and shoulders in the short term, which greatly limits the rebound space of gold and suppresses the rebound limit within 3335. As the center of gravity of gold moves down, the resistance in the short term moves down to the 3315-3325 area. After breaking through 3330, the downward space has been opened up to a certain extent. So don’t be fooled by the false bullish candle that appear near 3330. Gold will inevitably continue to fall to the 3290-3280 area.
The 3290-3280 area is bound to be won, so shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading. You can consider shorting gold with the 3315-3325-3335 area as resistance, and look to the target area: 3295-3285-3275.
Firmly bearish below 3350 once again verifies the perfect idea!Gold price rose rapidly at the opening, reaching a high of 3342 before falling back. This kind of rapid pull needs special attention, because from the perspective of short-term trading, this is the trend pattern that needs the most vigilance. Looking back at the trend last Thursday, there was also a situation where the high could not be continued. Historical data shows that this kind of pull-up often lacks sustained momentum, and the subsequent upward space is limited. Combined with the recent trend, although the price rebounded on Monday and Tuesday, it basically maintained a volatile pattern in the following trading days, but the fluctuation range changed. Therefore, the market expects the trend to be repeated in stages, and the information of long and short interweaving makes it difficult for the market trend to continue. Today, the short position digested the second time at the opening and currently stepped back to the lowest 3305 line. In terms of operation, we first pay attention to the situation of 3303-3293. If the support below is broken today, then the market will reverse to the short position. Otherwise, we will continue to rebound from the bottom and look for opportunities to do more.
From the current gold trend analysis, the support line of 3303-3293 is concerned below, the short-term resistance above is concerned about 3325-3330, and the suppression line of 3345-50 is focused on. The overall main tone of high-altitude low-multiple cycle participation remains unchanged. In the mid-line position, keep watching and do less, follow orders cautiously, and wait for the opportunity to enter the market after the key points are in place.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Go long near 3293-3303 for gold, and the target is 3315-3320.
2. Go short near 3320-3330 for gold, and the target is 3310-3300.
Continue to short gold, bears will exert force againAffected by the NFP market, gold fell precipitously, almost giving back 50% of the gains in the previous wave, and the short-selling performance was particularly strong; technically, gold successfully built a double-top structural resistance in the 3365-3363 area in the short term, which played a technical suppression role in the short term. As gold fell, the current short-term resistance moved down to the 3340-3350 area;
On the other hand, although gold began to rebound after falling to around 3312, it clearly showed the characteristics of weak rebound, and it did not even stand above 3340 once, and the long forces were insufficient; and technically, a single lower shadow line was not enough to support the continued rebound of gold, so gold still had the need to retrace the support below from a technical perspective; and once gold fell again, it was very likely to test the 3305-3295 area again.
So I think we can take advantage of the rebound of gold to short gold again. We can still short gold with the 3340-3350 area as resistance and look at the target area: 3315-3305-3295.
Weekly range to be continued, gold short and long this weekLast week, gold opened high at 3280.9 at the beginning of the week and then fell back. The weekly low reached 3245.8, and then the market was strongly pulled up by the support of this round of trend line and fundamentals. On Thursday morning, the weekly high touched 3366, and then the market fell strongly under the strong influence of non-agricultural data. On Friday, the market consolidated in the range due to the holiday, and the weekly line finally closed at 3337.2. The weekly line closed with a medium-sized positive line with equal upper and lower shadows. After ending in this pattern, today's market continued to move in the range. In terms of points, the stop loss was still at 3346 after the short position at 3342 last Friday. Today, it first rose to 3342 and the short stop loss was still 3346. The target below is 3330 and 3322. If it falls below, the support of 3310 and 3300-3292 will be targeted.
Gold continues to fluctuate, where will it go next week?Fundamental analysis:
With the Trump administration's massive tax cut and spending bill officially implemented, the U.S. Treasury may start a "supply flood" of short-term Treasury bonds to make up for the trillions of dollars in fiscal deficits in the future. The market has begun to respond to future supply pressures. Concerns about the oversupply of short-term Treasury bonds have been directly reflected in prices - the yield on 1-month short-term Treasury bonds has risen significantly since Monday this week. A closer look at non-agricultural new jobs exceeded expectations, but nearly half came from government departments, which is likely to reverse in July. Slowing wage growth, declining total working hours, stagnant wage income growth, and worrying consumer spending are all signs of support for gold.
Gold bottomed out and rose from the low of 3245 this week, and then soared all the way to 3365. Finally, the weekly line closed with a positive line with an upper shadow. From the overall trend, after the data is digested, next week will still be treated with a volatile mindset. The large range will focus on the 3280-3393 area. If it does not break, it will still be mainly a sweeping operation. On the daily line, it also closed with a positive line with a long upper shadow, and closed firmly above 3323. It repeatedly tested the pressure of 3345 and did not break and fell back. The structure still maintained an oscillation rhythm within a small range. From the 4-hour cycle, the Bollinger Bands closed significantly. If it opens normally next week, pay attention to the 3325-3315 and 3311 areas when it falls back to support, and pay attention to the 3357 and 3365 positions when it hits the high pressure. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of selling high and buying low in operation and respond to the trend.For more specific operational details and strategy updates, please pay attention to the notifications at the bottom 🌐 and follow them in time.
Gold fluctuates frequently, how to seize the opportunity?We started high-altitude layout from 3365. We took the lead in seizing this wave of decline opportunities and firmly held the bearish view. We harvested short orders all the way to 3325. The gold short orders were continuously stopped at profit, and the rhythm was very steady. The current market fluctuated repeatedly and the direction was chaotic, but we always insisted on executing the strategy - do it when you see it, and you can reap good rewards if you can hold it. Although there is support and resistance at the 3333 line in the short term, it is not recommended to chase more. The risk is relatively large. The key is to step back more. Wait for the 3325-3315 area to consider laying out long orders. We do not do dead shorts, nor do we blindly do more. We always maintain flexible response and rational judgment on the market.
From the current trend of gold, pay attention to the short-term support of 3325-3320 below, focus on the support position of 3315-3310, and pay attention to the short-term resistance around 3345-3350 above. The overall main tone of high-altitude low-multiple cycle participation remains unchanged. In the mid-line position, keep watching and do less, chase orders cautiously, and wait for the opportunity to enter the market after the key points are in place. For more specific operational details and strategy updates, please pay attention to the notification at the bottom 🌐 and pay attention in time.
Gold operation suggestions:
1. Go long near 3325-3315, target 3335-3345.
2. Go short near 3340-3350, target 3330-3320.
Gold fluctuates near the resistance point, and the short positioSpot gold rose slightly in the European session on Friday (July 4), currently trading around $3,333/oz, up about 0.37%, and is expected to record a considerable increase of nearly 2% on a weekly basis. Behind this wave of gold price increases is the smooth passage of the massive tax cut and spending bill promoted by US President Trump in Congress, which has caused market concerns about the US fiscal situation. At the same time, the continued weakness of the US dollar index has further helped the rise in gold prices. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold continues to be supported by bargain hunting.
Despite the continued rise in gold prices, physical gold demand in major Asian markets has been sluggish. Due to high prices, consumer purchasing interest has significantly weakened. In India in particular, the reduction in gold imports has led to a narrowing of the market discount. The weak demand in the Asian market is in sharp contrast to the risk aversion in the global financial market, highlighting the complexity of the current gold market. On the whole, fiscal concerns caused by the US tax cut bill, the weakening of the US dollar and the potential impact of Trump's tariff policy are jointly driving the upward trend of gold prices. The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset is increasing, especially against the backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty. In the future, as tariff policies are gradually implemented and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy becomes clearer, the gold market may have more opportunities to rise.
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Maintain range fluctuations during the day?Gold has maintained a volatile pattern recently. As the US market is closed today for Independence Day, the market volatility is expected to be limited, but the volatile market will continue, but the volatility range may change. Yesterday's gold price fell mainly due to the news, and this decline usually does not last too long. From a technical point of view, gold prices are supported near 3310-3300, which is the key support level today. It is worth noting that on Wednesday, gold prices were under pressure in the 3340-3350 area, and on Thursday, prices formed support in this range, indicating that the area is forming a top-bottom conversion. Therefore, 3340-3350 has become an important pressure level today. It is expected to fluctuate in the 3300-3340/3350 range during the day. The impact of news on gold prices is usually short-term. When the fundamentals and technical directions are consistent, price fluctuations will be more obvious. When the two are inconsistent, price fluctuations will weaken, but will not change the technical trend. The rebound pattern established at the beginning of the week is still valid. After a short-term shock, gold prices are expected to re-stand above 3345 and continue to maintain the rebound trend.
Still short gold before breaking 3355After the release of NFP yesterday, gold began to fall sharply from 3352, reaching a low of around 3312; although it has gradually rebounded above 3340, the time span is not short, so the rebound is not strong; and the double top structure successfully constructed by gold in the 3365-3360 area in the short term still plays a technical suppression role in the short term, greatly weakening the rebound potential; and with the decline of gold yesterday, I think before gold recovers the 3352 starting point, gold will also be under pressure in the 3345-3355 area in the short term. If gold cannot successfully break through this area during the rebound, gold is expected to retest the 3330-3320 area again.
Because of the US Independence Day, the gold market will be closed in advance today. It is expected that gold will not have a breakthrough today, so it may be difficult to break through the 3345-3355 area in the short term, so we can still continue to maintain the trading rhythm of shorting gold in terms of trading.
So I think shorting gold still has a lot of profit potential. We can short gold with 3345-3355 area as resistance and look to the target area: 3335-3325-3315.
7.4 Non-farm payrolls exploded, and expectations for the Fed’s rOn Thursday, as the strong US employment data dispelled the market's expectations of the Fed's recent rate cut, the US dollar index rose sharply before the US market, returned to above the 97 mark, and once rose to an intraday high of 97.42.
Spot gold fell sharply, once falling to $3311 during the session, a drop of more than $50 from the intraday high, and then recovered some of its losses and remained near 3330 for consolidation.
The current upper suppression position of the daily line is almost here at 3350, and the lower support is located at 3320-25.
So if it is maintained in the range of consolidation, it is likely to be rectified at 3320-50.
Secondly, from the hourly chart:
It can be seen from the trend of 3247 to 3365.
The Fibonacci 618 position is exactly here at 3320.
Although the lowest point last night was pierced to around 3311, it can be seen that the entity still closed above 3320.
As long as 3320 cannot be broken, the best case scenario is to maintain it at 3320-50 for consolidation. If not, once 3350 is broken, the high point of 3365 will definitely not be able to be maintained.
Therefore, for today's operation, try to maintain the high-selling and low-buying range of 3320-50.