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Goldtrader

99% rate cut odds in election week? With both the election and an upcoming Fed meeting in focus, markets could face a surge in volatility this week. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are placing a 99% probability on a quarter-point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s policy meeting on Thursday, following a half-point cut in September. After the rate decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak. But, even if Thursday brings a clear election outcome, Fed officials are likely to sidestep any questions about potential policies from the next administration until the winner assumes office. Only then will they assess how campaign pledges translate into actual policy, watching closely to see how businesses, consumers, and financial markets react before making any further moves on monetary policy.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
XAU/USD: Final NFP before Election Americans continue to rank the economy as their top issue, and the final Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report before voting day, offers a crucial signal this coming Friday. September saw a gain of 254,000 jobs, but forecasts point to a marked slowdown, with expectations hovering just above the 100,000 mark. The expected downturn stems from several factors, including back-to-back hurricanes disrupting the Southeast of the country. For now, gold is trading below Friday’s close (but for how much longer?) as markets react to limited Israeli action against Iran. Tehran has indicated it won’t retaliate, easing geopolitical tension and potentially reducing demand for the haven asset.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
3 Technical Analysis Tools to Identify Resistance Levels on GOLD How to trade Gold when it is constantly setting new all-time highs? When Gold is trading beyond historical levels, technical analysis can help you to identify the next potentially strong resistance levels. In this article, I will teach you the only 3 technical analysis tools you need to find the next key resistances and predict future correctional movements on Gold chart. Tool 1 - Trend Line The first technical analysis tool that will help you to identify a potentially strong resistance is a trend line based on previous highs. Simply analyze the previous historic highs and try to find a trend line that was respected by the market at least 3 times in the past. It means that such a trend line should be based at least on 3 historic highs. Look at that rising trend line on Gold on a daily time frame. It is based on 3 historic highs, and it can be a potentially strong resistance. Tool 2 - Psychological Levels The second technical analysis tool is psychological levels. These levels are based on round, whole numbers. In our example, the closest psychological level is 2500 level. This level is based on round numbers, it is a multiple of 500 and 100. It can compose a potentially strong resistance cluster. Tool 3 - Fibonacci Levels The third technical analysis tool is Fibonacci extension and confluence. In order to identify a potentially strong resistance with Fibonacci extension, you should identify at least 3 last bullish impulses/waves. Above is the example of 3 significant impulse legs on Gold chart on a daily. Draw Fibonacci Extension levels based on these 3 impulse legs. Here are important Extension levels to consider: -1.272 -1.414 - 1.618 Above, you can see how I draw Fibonacci Extension levels based on all the impulse legs that we identified. Your task is to identify the point where the extension levels of 3 impulses match in one point. Such a point will be called confluence zone. This confluence zone will be the next potentially strong resistance. These 3 technical tools helped us to identify the resistances beyond all historical levels easily. Remember that there is no 100% guarantee that all the resistances that we spotted will be respected by the market. For that reason, you should strictly analyze a price action and a reaction of the price to these levels before you open a short trade. Alternatively, remember that these resistances can be applied as the targets for long trades. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
RSI Flags Gold Risks Before GDP, PCE Data? Gold is set to face two major US economic data points this week, following last week’s surprise 50-basis-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve: U.S. GDP figures on Thursday and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on Friday Danielle DiMartino Booth of Quill Intelligence argues the Fed’s larger-than-expected cut signals concerns over potential negative GDP revisions, casting doubt on the chances of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy. Jerome Powell is also going to be speaking on Thursday at the 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference. But his remarks may take a backseat to the data. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed above 70, signaling overbought conditions and suggesting caution for gold buyers. If the metal turns corrective, the price could test $2,613.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets