Best Price Action Pattern For GOLD Trend Following Trading
This bullish pattern is very powerful .
Being spotted on a daily/4h/1h, any time frame, it will help you to accurately predict a strong bullish movement on Gold .
In this article, I will teach you to identify a buying volumes accumulation on Gold chart and as a bonus, I will show you how I predicted a recent bullish rally with this price action pattern.
The initial point of this pattern will be a completion point of a strong bullish impulse.
At some moment, the price finds a strong horizontal resistance, stops growing and retraces.
The second point of the pattern will be a completion of a retracement.
It should strictly be a higher low - it should be higher than the low of an initial bullish impulse.
After a retracement, the price should return to a horizontal resistance and set an equal high , that will be the third point of the pattern.
Then, the price should retrace AT LEAST one more time from a horizontal resistance and set a new higher low.
After that, the price should set one more equal high.
3 equal highs and 2 higher lows will compose a bullish accumulation pattern.
Please, note, that the price may easily set more equal highs and more consequent new higher lows and keep the pattern valid.
Above is the example of a bullish accumulation pattern on Gold on an hourly time frame. The price set 3 equal highs and 3 consequent higher lows.
This pattern will signify the weakness of sellers and the accumulation of buying volumes.
The point is that each consequent bearish price movement from a resistance is weaker than a previous one. It means that fewer sellers are selling from the resistance and more buyers start buying, not letting sellers go lower.
In our example, we can clearly see the consequent weakening, bearish price movements.
This pattern indicates a highly probable breakout attempt of the resistance. A candle close above that provides a strong bullish signal.
The broken resistance will turn into support and will provide a safe point to buy the market from.
In our example, the market broke the underlined horizontal resistance and closed above that. It indicates the completion of a bullish accumulation and a highly probable bullish trend continuation.
You can see that Gold retested a broken structure and then a strong bullish wave initiated.
In a strong bullish market that we currently contemplation on Gold, this bullish pattern will provide a lot of profitable trading opportunities.
No matter whether you are scalping, day trading or swing trading Gold, this bullish accumulation pattern will help you to predict long-term, mid-term and short-term bullish movements.
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How to Find Key Levels on Gold XAUUSD Chart Easily
In this short article, you will learn how to find powerful levels on a gold chart.
I will explain to you what is a key level, how to apply it in trading. We will discuss key levels and different time frames, valid and invalid key levels. I will share with you a lot of useful trading tips.
First, let's start with a definition of a key level.
Key level is a single important historic price level on the chart,
from where a significant price movement initiated.
Usually, key levels are based on the edges of candlestick wicks.
Look at Gold chart on a 4H time frame.
I underlined a key level. You can see how strong was a bullish reaction to that. The price tested that level, bounced up and formed a long wick.
Key levels that are above current prices will be called resistances .
We will assume that sellers are placing their selling orders there.
Above is the example of a key resistance on Gold on an hourly time frame.
The price tested 2479 level, dropped rapidly and formed a long wick.
From a key resistance level, a bearish movement is expected.
Key levels that are below current prices will be called supports.
We will assume that buyers are placing their buying orders there.
That is the example of a key support level on Gold chart on a daily.
From a key support level a bullish movement is expected.
Key levels that are lying close to each other will compose support and resistance clusters.
Look at 2 key support levels on Gold on a 4H time frame.
These 2 levels are lying very close to each other and compose a support cluster.
3 key resistance above will compose a resistance cluster on Gold on a daily time frame, because these levels lye close to each other.
With time, the market tends to break key levels.
If the price violated a key support level and closes below that, it turns into a resistance level.
Look at a breakout of key support on an hourly time frame on Gold chart.
After a candle close below that, the broken key level turned into resistance.
If the price violates a key resistance level and closes above that, it turns into a support level.
Above is a recently broken horizontal resistance on Gold on a 4H time frame. After a breakout, that key level turned into support.
Key levels tend to lose their significance with time.
Key level that is broken by the buyers and the sellers or vice versa loses the status of a key level.
The underlined level was a significant resistance in the past.
However, the market stopped respecting this level and it lost its importance.
Remember that you can find key levels on any time frame.
But key levels are not equal in their significance.
Key levels that are spotted on higher time frame will be stronger than key levels that are spotted on lower time frames.
On the chart on the left, I underlined key support and resistance levels on a daily time frame on Gold.
While on the right, I market key support and resistance levels on a 4H time frame.
Daily structures will be considered to be more significant structures.
Hence, the market reaction to such structures tend to be stronger.
In comparison to support and resistance areas,
key levels provide the safest points to look for a trading opportunity from.
Once you spotted a confirmation after a test of a key level,
simply set your stop loss below a support or above a resistance.
You will have a very good reward to risk ratio.
Key levels play a crucial role in technical analysis of Gold.
No matter whether you are day trader, scalper, swing trader or investor, key levels is the first thing that you should always start your analysis from.
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Learn Supply and Demand Zones in Gold Trading
In this article, I will teach you how to identify supply and demand zones on Gold chart easily.
You will learn what are supply and demand zones and how to apply it in Gold trading.
In order to identify supply and demand zones on Gold chart, the first thing that you should do is to execute a complete structure analysis.
You should identify horizontal structures: support and resistance levels/zones; vertical structures - trend lines.
That's how a complete support and resistance analysis should look.
On a daily time frame, I have underlined all significant horizontal and vertical structures.
First, let's look for demand zones.
A demand zone is a specific area on a price chart that combines multiple key structure supports: horizontal or vertical ones.
Buying orders of the market participants will be placed within that entire area.
Our first demand zone will be based on a Horizontal Support 1 and a Vertical Support 1. A trend line and a horizontal support compose an expanding area.
We will call such an area a demand zone, simply because we assume that buying volumes will accumulate within that entire zone. And lower the price will move inside that area, more buying orders will become active.
Our second demand zone will be based on Horizontal Support 3/4/5.
All these structures are lying very close to each other. Some supports even have common boundaries.
These supports will compose a demand zone , a wide horizontal area where buying orders will be placed.
Vertical Support 2 is lying very closely to our Demand Zone 2.
A horizontal demand zone and a trend line will compose and expanding demand zone.
Now let's discuss supply zones.
A supply zone is a specific area on a price chart that combines multiple key structure resistances: horizontal or vertical ones.
Selling orders of the market participants will be placed within that entire area.
There is one supply zone on our Gold price chart. It will be based on a Horizontal Resistance 1 and Vertical Resistance 1.
Both structures are lying very close to each other.
We will assume that selling orders will be placed throughout that entire area and the higher the price moves within that, the more selling orders will become active.
Remember that you can identify Supply and Demand Zones on Gold on any time frame.
A bullish movement and a bullish reaction will be expected from a Demand Zone.
While a bearish movement and a bearish reaction will be expected from a Supply Zone.
Because Supply and Demand Zones are relatively large areas, it is very important to analyze a price action within these zones before you place a trade.
Thank you for reading!
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3 Technical Analysis Tools to Identify Resistance Levels on GOLD
How to trade Gold when it is constantly setting new all-time highs?
When Gold is trading beyond historical levels, technical analysis can help you to identify the next potentially strong resistance levels.
In this article, I will teach you the only 3 technical analysis tools you need to find the next key resistances and predict future correctional movements on Gold chart.
Tool 1 - Trend Line
The first technical analysis tool that will help you to identify a potentially strong resistance is a trend line based on previous highs.
Simply analyze the previous historic highs and try to find a trend line that was respected by the market at least 3 times in the past.
It means that such a trend line should be based at least on 3 historic highs.
Look at that rising trend line on Gold on a daily time frame. It is based on 3 historic highs, and it can be a potentially strong resistance.
Tool 2 - Psychological Levels
The second technical analysis tool is psychological levels.
These levels are based on round, whole numbers.
In our example, the closest psychological level is 2500 level. This level is based on round numbers, it is a multiple of 500 and 100.
It can compose a potentially strong resistance cluster.
Tool 3 - Fibonacci Levels
The third technical analysis tool is Fibonacci extension and confluence.
In order to identify a potentially strong resistance with Fibonacci extension, you should identify at least 3 last bullish impulses/waves.
Above is the example of 3 significant impulse legs on Gold chart on a daily.
Draw Fibonacci Extension levels based on these 3 impulse legs.
Here are important Extension levels to consider:
-1.272
-1.414
- 1.618
Above, you can see how I draw Fibonacci Extension levels based on all the impulse legs that we identified.
Your task is to identify the point where the extension levels of 3 impulses match in one point. Such a point will be called confluence zone.
This confluence zone will be the next potentially strong resistance.
These 3 technical tools helped us to identify the resistances beyond all historical levels easily.
Remember that there is no 100% guarantee that all the resistances that we spotted will be respected by the market.
For that reason, you should strictly analyze a price action and a reaction of the price to these levels before you open a short trade.
Alternatively, remember that these resistances can be applied as the targets for long trades.
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What is Structure Mapping in Gold Trading XAUUSD?
Structure mapping is essential for day trading, scalping and swing trading gold.
It is applied for trend analysis, pattern recognition, reversal and trend-following trading.
In this article, I will teach you how to execute structure mapping on Gold chart and how to apply that for making accurate predictions and forecasts.
Take notes and let's get started.
Let's discuss first, what is structure mapping?
With structure mapping, we perceive the price chart as the set of impulse and retracement legs.
Structure mapping can be executed on any time frame and on any financial market.
Look at a Gold chart on a 4H time frame. What I did, I underlined significant price movements.
Each point where every leg of a movement completes will have a specific name and meaning.
On a gold chart, I underlined all such points.
These points are very important because it determines the market trend and show the patterns.
When you execute structure mapping, the first thing that you should start with the identification of a starting point - the initial point of analysis.
On a price chart, such a point should be the highest high that you see or the lowest low.
If you start structure mapping with a high, that high will be called Initial High.
A completion point of a bearish movement from the Initial High will be called Lower Low LL.
A bullish movement that completes BELOW the level of the Initial High or Any Other High will be called Lower High LH.
A bullish movement that completes on the level of the Initial High or Any Other High will be called Equal High.
A bullish movement that completes above the level of the Initial High or Any Other High will be called Higher High HH.
If you start with the low, such point will be called Initial Low.
A completion point of a bullish movement from the Initial Low will be called Higher High HH.
A bearish movement that completes ABOVE the level of the Initial Low or Any Other Low will be called Higher Low HL.
A bearish movement that completes on the level of the Initial Low or Any Other Low will be called Equal Low.
A bearish movement that completes below the level of the Initial Low or Any Other Low will be called Lower Low LL.
Look how I executed structure mapping on Gold chart.
Starting with the lowest low, I underlined all significant price movements and its lows and highs.
You should learn to recognize these points because it is the foundation of gold structure mapping.
Combinations of these points will be applied for the identification of the market trend, trend reversal and patterns.
According to the rules, 2 lower lows and a lower high between them are enough to confirm that the market is trading in a bearish trend.
While 2 higher highs and a higher low between them confirm that the trend is bullish .
In a bullish trend, a bullish violation of the level of the last Higher High will be called a Break of Structure BoS. That event signifies the strength of the buyers and a bullish trend continuation.
A bearish violation of the level of the last Higher Low will be called Change of Character CHoCH . It will mean the violation of a current bullish trend.
In a bearish trend, a bearish violation of the level of the last Lower Low will be called a Break of Structure BoS . It is an important event that signifies the strength of the sellers and a bearish trend continuation.
While a bullish violation of the level of the last lower high will be called Change of Character CHoCH. That even will signify a violation of a bearish trend.
That's how a complete structure mapping should look on Gold chart.
With the identification of the legs of the move, highs and lows, BoS and ChoCh you can clearly understand what is happening with the market.
Gold was trading in a bearish trend. Once the level of our Initial Low was tested, the market started a correctional movement and started to trade in a bullish trend.
Once some important resistance was reached, the market reversed. We saw a confirmed CHoCH and the market returned to a bearish trend.
Structure mapping is the foundation of technical analysis. It is the basis of various trading strategies and trading styles. It is the first thing that you should start your trading education with.
I hope that my guide helped you to understand how to execute structure mapping in Gold trading.
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Best Lot Size For Scalping, Day Trading, Swing Trading GOLD
What is the best lot size for scalping, day trading, swing trading Gold XAUUSD?
In the today's article, I will explain to you how to calculate a lot size for trading Gold for any trading strategy and trading style.
As the example, I will measure lot sizes for 500$, 1000$, 10000$ XAUUSD trading accounts.
Scalping Gold
For scalping Gold, traders commonly apply 5m/15m time frames.
In order to calculate the lot size for 5 minutes time frame trading, you will need to back test your trading strategy and find at least 5 trades that meet the rules of your trading strategy.
But remember that the more trades you will back test, the better and the safer lot size you will calculate.
You will need to underline the entry point and a stop loss for each trade.
Then you will need to measure stop loss value of every trade in pips.
Then, find the trade with the biggest stop loss in pips.
In our example, the biggest stop loss is 353 pips.
Open a position size calculator for Gold.
As an example, we will apply some free position size calculator.
Fill all the inputs.
As a risk ratio, input 2%.
Our best lot size for scalping Gold on 5 minutes time frame will be:
0.03 lot with 500$ trading account.
0.06 lot with 1000$ trading account.
0.57 lot with 10000$ trading account.
With such a lot size, your potential risk will not exceed 2% of your trading account balance and the average risk will be close to 1%.
For scalping Gold on 15 minutes time frame, find at least 5 trades based on your trading strategy rules.
The biggest stop loss in 600 pips.
Please, note that the higher is the time frame, the bigger are the stop losses in pips. It means that higher time frame trading requires bigger account balance than lower time frame trading.
Apply XAUUSD position size calculator to measure a lot size for 15m trading.
Our best lot size for scalping Gold on 15 minutes time frame will be:
0.02 lot with 500$ trading account.
0.03 lot with 1000$ trading account.
0.33 lot with 10000$ trading account.
Day Trading Gold
Common time frame for day trading Gold are 30M and 1H.
Find at least 5 trading setups on 30 minutes time frame and measure stop loss in pips.
The biggest stop loss in our example is 997 pips.
According to XAUUSD position size calculator,
best lot size for day trading Gold on 30 minutes time frame will be:
0.01 lot with 500$ trading account.
0.02 lot with 1000$ trading account.
0.2 lot with 10000$ trading account.
The same logic will be applied on an hourly time frame.
Among 5 trading setups in the example above, the biggest stop loss is 1500 pips.
500$ trading account will not be enough to control risks below 2%.
You will need at least 1000$ for day trading Gold on an hourly time frame with such stop losses.
Using Gold position size calculator,
here are the best lot sizes for trading on 1H:
0.01 lot with 1000$ trading account.
0.13 lot with 10000$ trading account.
Swing Trading Gold
The main time frames for swing trading gold are 4H and Daily.
In our example, the biggest stop loss is 2800 pips.
1000$ account will not be enough for taking such a trade with 2% risk.
Taking the trade with minimal 0.01 lot, the risk will be 28$ or 2.8% of 1000.
Using XAUUSD lot size calculator, the best lot size for swing trading on a 4H will be:
0.07 lot with 10000$ trading account.
Before you start trading on a real account, you should know exactly your risks in pips. Knowing the biggest stop loss will help you to carefully measure the safest lot size for your trading style.
Make sure that you have sufficient balance to not exceed 2% risk per trade and analyze as many past trading setups as possible.
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GOLD Trading: 8 Mistakes Traders MUST Avoid in a Bull Market
The unstoppable uptrend on Gold may cause irrational and very costly decisions . For the past 6 months, we've seen an unprecedented surge, with new highs being set almost daily.
In this article, we will discuss critical mistakes that traders often make in the midst of such a bullish run and explore the strategies to maximize your gains.
1. Technical Indicators Lie
Always remember that technical indicators that measure the momentum or strength of a market trend, that show the overbought and oversold conditions, fail miserably in strong bullish or bearish rallies.
I am talking about such indicators as Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving average convergence/divergence, Stochastic, etc. The fact that one of these indicators show overbought condition or even a bullish divergence most of the time will be a false signal.
Above is the example of an overbought RSI on Gold chart on a daily.
After the market became overbought, it went 1000 pips higher before the first pullback.
2. It is Never too High
When the market starts setting new all-time highs, people typically start saying that the price is already "too high" and start closing their long positions or even open short positions.
Remember, that the notion of too high is very subjective.
Look at a bullish rally on Gold in 2020.
I well remember that when the market updated a yearly high in April,
People start staying that it is already "too high".
However, the market kept rallying for 4 consequent months, constantly updating the highs.
Such a market behavior may persist for a significant period of time, be prepared for that.
3. Beware of Overconfidence
Even though bullish rallies may be long, always remember that they can not last forever.
At some moment, correction or even bearish reversal will occur.
For that reason, open long positions carefully, setting realistic targets.
4. Protect Your Gains and Maximize Your Profits
When the market is trading in the uncharted territory, it is almost impossible to predict where it will find the resistance. With a take profit level, you may close the trade too soon.
If you see that the market is driven by euphoria and keeps setting new all-time highs, remove take profit and apply a trailing stop instead.
Keep that below the recent supports, use ATR or some other classic technical tool.
That will help you to benefit from the entire rally.
5. DON'T SELL BULLISH RALLY
When the market is driven by greed, euphoria or fear, never go against the market. The chance that you will accurately predict the turning point is close to 0.
6. Beware of Lower Time Frame Bearish Patterns
In a strong bullish trend, classic bearish reversal pattern have low accuracy, especially on minutes time frames.
Look at a sequence of double tops on 15 minutes time frame.
These patterns are a great example of manipulations and how smart money induce retail traders to start shorting.
In a such a strong bullish trend, the only strategy to rely on is trend-following trading.
7. Do Not Rely On News
In times of strong bullish/bearish rallies,
the data in economic calendar and important news releases stop giving the reliable signals.
In times of bulls/bearish runs, emotions become the main driver of the markets, not the fundamental data.
8. If You Missed It, Let It Go
I can imagine, how terrible you may feel yourself if you did not manage to buy Gold on a good price. It's sad, and it is painful to watch how the market goes higher and higher without you.
But always remember a simple rule: if you missed the rally, let it go. With each new high that the market sets, your potential gains drop dramatically.
I hope that these tips will help you not get burned while Gold is on fire.
Stay calm and patient, and do not let your emotions intervene.
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How to Analyze Daily Time Frame on Gold. 5 Important Things
There are 5 important things that you should analyze on Gold on a daily time frame to accurately predict long term, midterm and short term movements.
In this article, I will share with you a step-by-step guide for daily time frame analysis that you can apply on Gold or any other financial instrument.
1 - Identify the market trend
When you analyze a daily time frame, you should identify long term, midterm and short term market trends.
Long-term trend is based on the analysis of one year long price action.
In the example above, Gold is trading in a long term bullish trend because the price keeps setting new higher high and new higher lows during the year.
Midterm trend is based on the analysis of a price action for the last 4–5 months.
Above, we can clearly see that a mid-term trend is bullish because again, the price sets new higher highs and higher lows over time.
Short-term trend is based on the analysis of price movements for the last 2 months.
Short-term price action is also bullish on Gold, with a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
According to the trend analysis, long-term, mid-term and short-term trends are bullish.
2 - Identify the directional bias
The directional bias defines a highly probable future direction on the market.
In our example, we can anticipate that Gold will keep growing among all the dimensions: long-term, mid-term and short-term.
3 - Execute structure analysis
Identify important historic horizontal and vertical structures.
That will be the points from where you should look for trading opportunities.
When you analyze key levels, identify the structures that are lying close to the current price levels.
Make sure that all the structures that you spotted were respected by the market in the past.
4 - Look for price action patterns
Price action patterns are the language of the market.
Proper identification of the patters will help you correctly understand the intentions of the market participants.
You can see that a bearish breakout of a rising channel triggered a correctional movement on the market.
Gold started to fall steadily within a bullish flag pattern and after it tested a key support, the price violated the resistance of the flag.
5 - Analyze candlesticks
Candlestick patterns can provide extra clues and confirmations.
You can see that the market formed multiple rejections from key support, an inside bar formation and bullish engulfing candle.
Violation of the inside bar to the upside with a strong bullish candle is an important bullish signal.
Combining trend analysis, structure analysis, price action and candlestick analysis, and you can make predictions and look for trading opportunities.
You can also make your analysis even more sophisticated, for example, analyzing fundamental analysis or applying technical indicators.
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Best Technical Analysis Strategies for Trading Gold
If you want to trade Gold, but you don't know what strategy to trade, I prepared for you the list of 4 simple and profitable gold trading strategies.
Please, note that my list includes the indicator, swing, price action and smart money strategies, so you will certainly find the one that suites you.
Also, all the strategies will be strictly structure based.
It means that no matter which strategy you choose, you should start your analysis with identification of key levels on a daily time frame.
Example of structure analysis on Gold.
1. Breakout trading on a daily time frame
With that approach, we will be aiming to catch swing moves.
Your bearish confirmation will be a bearish breakout - a daily candle close below a key support. A bearish continuation will be anticipated to the next closest daily support then.
Your bullish signal will be a bullish breakout of a key daily resistance.
Then you can buy aggressively or on a retest, expecting a bullish continuation to the next strong resistance.
In the example above, bearish breakout of a key daily support was a strong bearish signal that triggered a massive selloff.
This strategy is based only on a daily time frame analysis,
the next 3 strategies will be more sophisticated and involve multiple time frames analysis.
2. Price action confirmation strategy
With that approach, you should patiently wait for a test of one of the key structures that you spotted on a daily.
After that, you should monitor the reaction of the price to that on 4h/1h time frames.
Your signal to buy will be a formation of a bullish reversal price action pattern on a key support, while your bearish confirmation will be a bearish pattern on a key resistance.
Once you spotted a confirmation, you can anticipate a bullish/bearish movement, at least to the closest 4h structure.
In the example above, Gold tested a key daily support. The price formed a double bottom formation on that. Its neckline breakout was a strong bullish signal.
A bullish movement initiated to the closest 4H resistance then.
3. Moving average confirmation strategy
For that method, you will need 2 moving averages: simple MA with 9 length and exponential MA with 20 length.
Once the market tests a key support, you should look for a crossover.
A simple MA should be above the exponential MA.
It will be your bullish signal.
After a test of a key resistance, look for an opposite crossover.
A simple MA should be below the exponential MA.
It will give you a strong signal to sell.
Here is how the MA crossover would help you to predict a bullish movement on Gold on an hourly time frame.
4. Smart money confirmation strategy
With that approach, you should look for a break of key daily structure on 4h/1h time frames.
After a violation of a key support, you should look for a bullish imbalance so that the price should return above the broken structure. That will be your signal to buy.
After a violation of a key resistance, look for a bearish imbalance. The price should come back below a broken structure. It will be your signal to sell.
After a test and a violation of a key daily resistance, Gold formed a bearish imbalance on a 4H time frame. It was a strong bearish signal.
All these strategies are very efficient. However, they will work after you learn to correctly identify key structures.
Let me know in a comment section which strategy do you prefer.
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