Goldtradingidea
4/25 Gold trading signal: Sell
Gold was shorted around 1987 today, and all profits were closed around 1977. At the same time, long trading began, and profits were completed again in 1990-1995!
At present, gold is near the support of 1986. The trend is not conducive to the bulls, and the bears have a greater probability of making a profit. The lower support is near 1969, and the upper resistance is near 1995-1998.
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Prediction on upcoming gold movements (XAUUSD)While XAUUSD has been bearish for the past few weeks, last Fri/Sat price entered into a strong interest level on the daily chart. I believe that after the big trends we've seen recently, added to the strength of the USD we will see gold start to consolidate around this level for some days until it eventually makes a move to the upside.
GOLD top-down analysis, UPDATEDHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
GOLD top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Gold Analysis: Breaking above 1765 may open the door for 1830What happened the last week?
Gold is on a hot streak! Last week, the yellow metal saw some relief as it went up against the U.S. dollar and other currencies worldwide. As a result, the gold has ended its three-week decline.
But will this temporary victory be more than just an illusion? With uncertainty surrounding global energy production brewing into what many fear could become another 2008-style crisis.
China Evergrande debt issue, tapering fears from Federal Reserve banks, and The U.S. political drama sent the gold price high in the last week despite the U.S. dollars positive economic reports.
In such an environment, investors may not want to risk tying their fortunes too closely with one element when they don't know which way things are going next month. But one thing we should not forget is that October is not suitable for gold buyers, and it is historically proven.
Last week, the FOMC was hawkish, and T-bond helped the USD; as a result, gold tested nearly 1722 price areas. Even FOMC members hint that the tapering may start soon, and rate hiking is expected in 2022. The U.S. economics reports were also positive than forecast.
But all positive factors for the USD didn't stop the rising gold price because of inflation expectations, the U.S. political drama, China Evergrande debt issue, tapering fears, and uncertainty on global energy production.
Great Britain is suffering from a lack of oil and gas. We also saw the oil and gas price jump up as a result. It means investors are concerned about inflation expectations.
What about the next week?
Several market move data will be published in the next week, including the U.S. job market reports. Last month's NFP report was too negative. It was supposed to, because august added a high number of jobs in the U.S. economy, and September's forecast was also a high number. Usually, it seemed a difficult position.
Anyhow, The next few days will be interesting for gold traders. The Chinese markets are closed on Thursday, which should allow volatility in Asian trading while they remain closed through Tuesday's US ISM Services PMI (which is informative).
Wednesday morning brings us ADP Nonfarm Employment Change which gives insight into America's job market growth rate before we see any indication from the Federal Reserve regarding tapering expectations towards monetary policy changes due out later.
The U.S. Department of Labor's weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will be drawing some attention alongside New York Federal Reserve President John William's speech on Thursday.
Friday brings in the all-important NFP data expectations for a better-than-expected print at 500K vs. last month's abysmal 235k figure. It indicates that what may have well-made progress towards meeting Fed Chairman Powell and Co.'s goal for maximum employment - it'll be closely eyed, no doubt.
The price of gold will remain at the mercy of market sentiment. Investors must keep their eye on what is happening in U.S. politics and how global energy crises are playing out. Investors will also keep an eye on the economic data from around the world, including emerging markets.
China has recently started investing more heavily in technology stocks rather than buying physical ones. They used to do it just because there's too much supply already causing inflation across all types of goods these days. So, be careful. Gold's price does not just depend on one factor.
Gold Technical analysis
Gold stuck below the descending trendline. Technically though, it is still in a downtrend. But I am a bit confused that the positive economic reports failed to send gold prices lower from the resistance level.
Usually, gold drops from such a strong resistance level just for a technical reason. But last week, that didn't happen. That means market sentiment favoring higher gold prices.
So, from the present rate, resistance and breakout area is identified at the 1765 price zone. If gold price can break above 1765, it may open the 1780/1785 price zone. I think gold will go for correction from the 1785 price zone.
But in case gold breaks above the 1785/1890 price zone, it is expected to hit again above the 18000/1805 price zone. And our final upside target is the 1830/1835 zone. I don't think gold will be able to break above 1835 easily. Even October is not a good month for gold buyers; it is historically proved.
On the other hand, if we see the global energy production crisis settled and the U.S. job market reports can fulfill the expectations, it is just a matter of time that the gold price will drop heavily. From the present rate, immediate support is identified at the 1750 price zone. Breaking below 1750 will open the door for the following support 1725/1720 price zone.
1720/1725 price zone may act as a retracement area for gold. But breaking below 1720, it is expected gold may hit below the 1700 price zone.
Gold Price Analysis: Market is waiting to test 1830 again. Gold has been making a solid comeback in the past week, and today it reached above $1800 for the first time since the first week of September.
This bit long-awaited move finally came after weeks of impressive gains made following Wednesday's upsurge, which saw gold preserved its bullish momentum. That is an important milestone that XAU/USD has reached above the $1800 price zone.
The reason behind such good fortunes? Falling U.S. Treasury bond yields seem to be fueling these advances with their recent poor performance weighing heavily upon USD prices.
N.F.P. came super negative, Market sentiment helping the gold price to up as well. Though yesterday C.P.I. printed positive today, PPI fades away. Last week before N.F.P., most U.S. economic reports came positive, but the USD outperformed against the gold.
The dollar Index falls below 93.80, nearly ten days lows; as a result, investors are seeking haven assets like Precious Metals. So, recent fundamental and market sentiment is helping the gold price to rise.
Technical View:
In one of my previous articles, I mentioned that breaking above 1865 may open the door for the 1830/1835 price zone. It seems that the gold market is heading to the 1830/1835 price zone.
From the present price zone, immediate resistance is showing at the 1807/1810 price zone. But keep in mind, every round figure play as a support and resistance. SO, 1800 price may play as minor resistance.
So, breaking above 1800, next target 1807/1810 price zone. After 1810 gold price may be headed to the 1830/1835 price zone. 1830/1835 price zone is a strong resistance zone and profit-taking zone. So, we may see a significant correction from the 1830/1835 price zone.
On the other hand, the gold price rose nearly 450+ pips since yesterday. So, it may be correct to lower if we see Retail Sales and Core retails print positive tomorrow. But I think it has less chance. But usually, it is showing overbought in R.S.I. SO, it may be correct too.
As long as gold's price holds above 1780, an uptrend channel's support. We should not go for short. Instead, gold may go up again after testing the 1780/1785 price zone. In case if we see gold price breaks below rising trendline support. We will go for short, and the next target should be the 1750 price zone. And finally, breaking below 1750, the last target to the downside is the 1720/1725 price zone.
Gold long opportunityEither gold will reverse right now and breakout or take support from the green trend line and then go to the red line and breakout.
Reason: reason for gold to be bullish is the FED interest rate hike on March,22 which will create panic in the stock market and make commodities ( silver , gold ) bullish
Gold Stuck Between $1830 to $1810. What is next? Fundamental Analysis
Gold is still holding its price above trendline support and below strong resistance at $1830/1832 price zone middle of trading today, Tuesday, January 18th, in the European session of the week, by about 0.20%, and is trading at levels of $ 1817 per ounce. Last week the USD was under pressure against all the major pairs. But at the beginning of the week, the USD is dominating again. But the gold is still holding above its immediate support of $1812, and the trendline supports the $1800 price zone.
The yellow metal is under pressure from the rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields at the end of last week, as the yield on the ten-year treasury bonds approached its peak recorded in January 2020, the highest levels of 1.84, by trading at the closing of the week at levels of 1.793, an increase of about 1.20%. Because of the U.S. 10 years, bond gold is under pressure.
In 2021, 10 years bond high rate was 1.773%, but in 2022, the bond's rate broke above the previous year's high. So if ten years treasury bond continues its uptrend, gold might have chances to drop again below the $1800 price zone. I don't find any other reason behind the dropping of the gold price and being unable to break above the strong resistance level of the $1832 price zone.
According to data released at the end of last week, inflation rose in the United States of America in December, according to data released at the end of last week, to 7%, recording the highest inflation reading in forty years.
It is also a supportive factor for the rise in gold, which is known as one of the most important tools and assets used to hedge against inflation, ignoring at the same time its extreme sensitivity against rising interest rates. The U.S., because it will increase the opportunity cost of acquiring gold.
On the other hand, cases of infection with the Coronavirus in its new strain, Omicron, continue to record levels worldwide, which constitutes support for the heights of assets and safe havens, with the yellow metal coming at the forefront.
The COT report issued by the Commodity and Futures Trading Authority, which reflects the concentrations of major investors and portfolios for the past week, showed a decline in the purchasing concentrations of gold, bringing the volume of concentrations to 199,737 thousand contracts, compared to 211.355 thousand contracts the previous week.
SO, overall it is still positive that the gold price has more room to go up. The only obstacle is us ten years treasury bond. But when inflation rises, it is also hard to raise the bond's rate. Even higher bonds are not good for the stock market as well. As investors are concerned about Coronavirus, inflation, and economic growth, that's why the ten years bond is rising, but I hope this rally in 10 years bond won't last long. Otherwise, the U.S. stock market has chances to collapse.
Technical analysis
Technically gold is holding above the trendline. Therefore, as long as the gold is above the $1800/1795 price zone, it will be considered an uptrend in the H4 chart.
$1830/1832 is identified as a resistance. Breaking above $1832 will open the door for the $1848/1850 price zone. From the present scenario, $1850 seems to trendline resistance. So, after testing the trendline resistance of the $1850 price zone, gold may go for another downside correction.
Immediate support is identified at the $1812 price zone from the present price zone. Breaking below $1812 may open the door to test the nearly $1800/1795 price zone. But as long as the gold price holds above the $1795 price zone, it will still chance to pull back to the upside. But in case gold breaks below the trendline support of the $1795 price zone, it has a long way to drop nearly $1750/1720
Gold is waiting to test $1900 as long as above $1800 price. Gold broke through a critical resistance area today after reports on inflation and the value of money. We've watched this zone closely because it was tested four times in summer, with no success until now.
Offers capped gold yesterday, but as fears rise about rising prices both governments want ($24 TBC) or need for survival (20 trillon$), investors are taking riskier approaches than ever before.
It's always worth watching what happens when everyone starts betting against your favorite asset class - especially since history doesn't offer us much guidance here at all.
The chart shows that today's move-up was greeted with buy-the-dip concrete action. The subsequent rise to the upside reached its highest $1868.57 today after CPI data, but it isn't over yet.
The critical level for this bullishness is located as a next target at $1876, which could signal where traders start looking toward swing highs if they break higher than currently expected prices of between 1900/1950 on these special gold prices mentioned above.
As long as the market holds above $1830/1835, it will be considered a strong buy. So, the market may correct this price. And even as long as the gold price will be able to hold its price above $1800, it won't change its uptrend.
So, soon $1900/1910 is expected upward move based on current situations.
Gold direction🤔 up or down?Gold made some massive bullish movement during the previous week, this movement was facilitated by the fundamentals underlying the USD either directly or indirectly (correlation effect). This week opens with a drag xauusd sluggishly dragging to the previous resistance around 1825-1828. This level has been proven to be a strong level following several reversal at the level. It is then logical to expect a bearish movement after seeing a momentum shift to the bears. Other the bulls might summon momentum and break this level then Gold probably breaks its strong resistance .
Kindly:
1. Gold is currently trading at a strong resistance, therefore expect a fakeout by the market maker
2. Patiently wait for a momentum shift if you're bearish on gold
3. Wait for a retest before entry
Kindly Share your opinion.
Gold 2021 bulls vs bearsThis is a personal dilemma since I do not trade gold just gold mines :)
Disclaimer: simply asking myself how we could see beginning of the 2021 and gold positioning in it so do not base your trading moves on this idea since I am a rookie and trying to only see how trends for gold will run next year...
Feel free to leave a comment what you think will be the direction, it is not a poll just curiosity to see how you see this crossroad of the end of the year :)
Happy trading everyone...
Gold Analysis: How Long Gold May Rise ?US-CHINA trade tension and Trump's tariff on Canadian aluminum industry, helping safe-haven to rise. Gold already broke historical high. Even USD in pressure against all the major currencies. SO, fundamentally Gold is in buy position there is no doubt here. But, all the technical indicators and tools are suggesting Gold are in an overbought condition.
We need to be cautious in this condition. Technically, as long as Gold is above the 2010.00 price zone, the Market still has a chance to test the 2050.00 price zone again.
Gold Sell Stop @ 2010.00
SL: 2050.00
TP1: 1980.00
TP2: 1940.00
Gold: Bouncing on SupportPotential bullish bounce pattern for Gold.
The buy zone is set where the two resistances cross ($1551).
Target levels are:
$1559
$1562
Stop:
$1548.7
Disclosure: My ideas contain statements and projections based on assumptions on capital markets, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.
Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
I am not a financial advisor.
XAUUSDCurrently Gold break above the 1480 very key level. We expect a huge upward move here now.
We can easily see that 4h re-test pin bar for entry the trend market.
However, if you miss that opportunity you can maybe wait for some 50EMA on 1h timeframe for a pullback to enter the trend market.
Our first target is 1532.360 and the second target is 1598.2
Good Luck!
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May we meet again.
-mecZpasha
Gold: Too Early for a Trend ReversalI was discussing with other traders in the Gold Discussion ChatRoom about the high volatility of Gold futures these days. My opinion, as stated in the linked idea, is still bullish. When trading commodities and stocks in consolidation phase or with high volatility, I usually check the "On Balance Volume" (OBV) Indicator looking for a divergence. This indicator bases on the fact that volume precedes prices. Divergences between OBV and price could help to identify a trend reversal (and they are a strong signal).
In the chart, I graphed the positive trend in green (starting from December 2019) and the recent retracement in red (last two days). OBV indicator is still high (showing bullish strength), and there is no divergence with the price level.
Disclosure: My ideas contain statements and projections based on assumptions on capital markets, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.
Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
I am not a financial advisor.