Sideway gold, selling strategy todayWorld gold prices increased with spot gold increasing by 21.5 USD to 2,350.5 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2.3716 USD/ounce, up 25.6 USD compared to yesterday morning.
Gold prices rose at the beginning of the week when the latest report showed that US manufacturing activity slowed for the second consecutive month. Specifically, the purchasing management index in the manufacturing sector decreased to 48.7% in May, compared to 49.2% recorded in April. This figure is weaker than the forecast of the world. expert. Disappointing economic data that raised the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates this year pushed the dollar to a three-week low and benchmark US Treasury yields fell. dropped to its lowest level in 2 weeks.
According to High Ridge Futures Chief Investment and Alternative Trading Officer David Meger, the positive trend in gold comes from strong expectations that interest rates will be cut at some point later this year.
Accordingly, the latest economic data makes investors believe that interest rate cuts will soon be implemented. Late last week, data released showed US inflation stabilizing in April. This has increased bets on an interest rate cut in September. Traders are currently pricing in around 56%. The possibility of cutting interest rates in September, increased sharply compared to before the report.
Goldtrend
Today's trading trend, entry buyLast week, world gold prices fell due to continued pressure from strong economic data and "tough" stances from US Federal Reserve (FED) officials.
According to experts, this week's gold price will have many fluctuations when the market receives a lot of important information such as the purchasing management index report in the manufacturing and service sectors, the number of applications for unemployment benefits and May non-farm payrolls. Besides, the Central Banks' decision on interest rates this week will likely cause the market to recalculate the timing of the FED's interest rate easing.
Marc Chandler, CEO at Bannockburn Global Forex, said that this week the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada are likely to cut interest rates. "Gold prices seem ready to go higher and the move above 2,372 USD/ounce is an indicator of precious metal prices conquering the 2,400 USD mark again," said Mr. Marc Chandler.
Sean Lusk, co-head of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said that short-term interest rates may have peaked, putting pressure on the USD and possibly causing gold prices to rise again.
According to Kitco News, this week, the majority of experts and retail investors expressed optimism about the short-term prospects of precious metals, with only a few of them keeping a neutral or bearish stance.
Specifically, 6 Wall Street experts (equivalent to 60%) think that gold prices will increase higher this week. 2 analysts (20%,) predict the price will decrease and the remaining 2 investors think the precious metal will move sideways in the short term.
Strategy at the beginning of the week, gold increased slightlyWorld gold prices tend to increase with spot gold increasing by 2.3 USD compared to last week's closing level to 2,329 USD/ounce.
World gold prices this week are forecast to have a lot of fluctuations when the market receives a lot of important information, including the purchasing management index report in the manufacturing and service sectors, and the number of applications reported. unemployment benefits and non-farm payrolls report for May. In addition, investors will also closely monitor developments and interest rate decisions of the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank. Central banks' decisions this week may cause the market to recalculate the timing and scale of interest rate easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Recently, in the context of economic instability, persistent inflation combined with geopolitical tensions and rising interest rates, gold prices have had a notable surge. At the end of May, this precious metal broke the record level reached in mid-April exceeding the mark of 2,400 USD/ounce. However, the price of this precious metal has turned down due to strong economic data combined with "hawkish" statements from Fed officials.
A recent article on CBSnews gave reasons why investors should buy gold when prices fall. According to the article, June is the right time to buy gold. Accordingly, after conquering the all-time high of 2,439.9 USD/ounce, gold has dropped more than 100 USD. The sharp decline in prices provides favorable opportunities for those who want to buy gold at a relatively lower price. Besides, short-term fluctuations in gold are difficult to predict. Therefore, it is unlikely that current price levels will last as gold prices could recover or even surpass previous record highs within days or weeks. Therefore, the advice is that investors should not miss the opportunity to buy gold at lower prices.
GOLD FORECASTThe current analysis indicates a Bullish trend for OANDA:XAUUSD , should continue on the secondary channel till 2369, and after that stabilizing above 2369 will continue the bullish trend till 2397. otherwise stabilizing below 2369 will try to reach 2334 and 2306.
Key Levels:
Bullish Lines: 2369, 2397, 2412
Bearish Lines: 2334, 2306, 2281
Gold price continues to decrease, strategy to sell todayWorld gold prices remained stable this morning as traders focused on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) report, the FED's preferred inflation measure, expected to be released this evening. can provide a more specific view on the timing and extent of interest rate cuts by the FED this year.
According to financial and securities market analysis site MarketWatch, inflation will increase by 2.7% over the same period last year. If this forecast is correct, it means that April inflation remained unchanged compared to March, that is, this inflation level is still much higher than the FED's 2% target.
A weaker dollar, lower yields and the recent stock market sell-off have provided bullish momentum for gold, said Kitco senior analyst Jim Wyckoff.
Regarding the outlook for precious metal prices, experts say that, along with central banks continuously adding gold to their reserves, demand from Chinese investors will continue to increase in the near future. coming will bring solid support for gold.
Today's trading strategy, sell XAUUSDWorld gold prices increased slightly with spot gold increasing by 5.7 USD to 2,342.6 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,364.5 USD/ounce, up 27.6 USD compared to yesterday morning.
Gold prices reversed to increase after the latest published data showed that economic growth in the US has slowed down from the beginning of the year until now. According to preliminary data on first quarter GDP released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on May 30 (US time), the US economy achieved growth of 1.3% in the first 3 months of the year, lower than the previous quarter. The previous forecast was 1.6% and down from 3.4% reported in the fourth quarter of 2023. Both the dollar and Treasury yields fell on expectations the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates this year increased after the report.
ActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista said that recently, traders' views have increasingly favored the scenario that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer, increasing the opportunity cost of holdings of the yellow metal and creating strong price resistance.
However, this expert said that gold has benefited from strong safe-haven demand due to fears of geopolitical instability and economic instability, as well as large state purchases. He hopes that these factors will likely continue in the near future.
Continuing downtrend, entry sell todayAnalysts say world gold prices dropped after an official of the US Federal Reserve (FED) commented on monetary policy. This person believes that high US interest rates will be kept stable, or even increased if necessary.
Immediately, the currency market reacted. The USD increased in price compared to many other strong currencies, putting pressure on gold prices today.
In particular, US bond interest rates suddenly increased to 4.6%. That means the value of bonds declines. This has motivated investors to increase their bond purchasing power to earn profits. As a result, very little money flows into precious metals. A sharp decline in world gold prices is inevitable.
Trading strategy today, continue to sell lightly and wait to buyWorld gold prices turned down sharply with spot gold down 24 USD to 2,336.9 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,336.9 USD/ounce, down 25.5 USD compared to yesterday morning.
The recovery of the USD, rising bond yields and "hawkish" comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have weighed on sentiment in the gold market, while investors wait. Look forward to the key inflation report later this week for more insight into the Fed's policy path.
A 0.4% rise in the dollar made gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies, while US 10-year Treasury yields rose to a nearly one-month high, increasing opportunity costs. hold gold. This week, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari emphasized that the US Central Bank should wait for evidence that inflation is decreasing before cutting interest rates.
Although gold is under a lot of pressure due to interest rate expectations, commodity analysts at UBS say that the precious metal's upward momentum is far from over with forecasts of prices rising to $2,500/ounce. in September and reach 2,600 USD/ounce by the end of this year. Previously, this Swiss bank forecast levels of 2,400 USD and 2,500 USD/ounce. USB also forecasts that gold price will increase to 2,700 USD/ounce by June 2025.
Still believe in gold, short-term selling strategyWorld gold prices continued to increase with spot gold price at 10.2 USD increasing to 2,360.9 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at $2,362.40 an ounce, up $9.90 from the bright spot.
The world's yellow metal continues to gain modestly, fueled by the weakening of the USD, while investors are still eagerly awaiting US emission data later this week for more clarity. about interest rate cuts. The US Dollar Index fell 0.2% to its lowest in more than a week, becoming bullish faster than other currency holders.
TD Securities commodity strategist Bart Melek said that the monetary policy dreams of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could very well create gold that cannot be closed and future forums are very negative. lots of data. However, this expert continues to maintain his optimism about gold.
The focus this week will be on the core US personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), the Fed's desired product quantity measure, which will be released on Friday.
Considered a hedging tool, gold benefited after minutes from the Fed's latest meeting last week showed that the US Central Bank did not discuss maintaining high interest rates for a longer period but also talking about the possibility of increasing interest rates in the context of finding that it is still "tough" and there is still a difficult path to achieving the 2% target. Traders are assessing the possibility of a rate cut of around 63% in November.
GOLD → the hello guys...
the short time frame broke down! so the price will touch the gray area and then go for the lower area like the blue one I drew!
but don't forget the main trend in the daily time frame is bullish!
so after touching the blue area, we will wait for confirmation for another upward movement!
___________________________
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A real-time operation of gold price before closing
Trading plan: Steady traders can wait until the market drops to around 2325 to buy directly. The target is 2341 or even higher. Aggressive friends can buy directly near 2332. The target is even higher near 2347.
TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1!
Trading plan: Steady traders can wait until the market drops to around 2325 to buy directly. The target is 2341 or even higher. Aggressive friends can buy directly near 2332. The target is even higher near 2347.
Gold trading strategy today, short-term sell entryWorld gold prices today (May 29) increased in the context of a weakening USD, while investors are still waiting for US inflation data later this week to judge when the Fed will cut interest rates. .
The US Dollar Index fell 0.1% to its lowest in more than a week, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Investors will monitor the US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index published on Friday (May 31). This index is considered the main inflation measure of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Military conflicts taking place in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war are continuing to cause geopolitical instability, reinforcing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Bob Yawger of Mizuho Bank said that according to some sources, a member of the Egyptian security agency was killed in a firefight with Israeli forces.
Additionally, central banks around the world have steadily increased their gold holdings over the past two years, with China's central bank being one of the most active buyers.
Gold trading strategy today, uptrendToday's gold price is trading at 2,352 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of 18 USD compared to the previous day's opening price of 2,334 USD/ounce.
World gold prices fluctuated in the context of data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC - US) showing that gold investment funds increased their buying positions by 194,000 contracts.
This information can make many investors expect the gold market to heat up. Therefore, they took advantage of putting capital into this precious metal. Gold price today has upward momentum.
On the other hand, the world geopolitical situation becomes more complicated as the military conflict between Israel and Hamas forces becomes increasingly tense. Since then, many financial institutions have increased their need to shelter capital in gold. Today's increase in gold prices in the world is understandable.
27TH MAY GOLD ANALYSIS1. Introduction
Gold prices are highly influenced by various global economic factors, including the demand from major economies such as China. As a member of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), China's economic strategies, including its moves to create a new currency to counter the US dollar, significantly impact gold prices. Currently, there are indications that the strength of buying gold in China is decreasing, which could have implications for the gold market.
2. Current Market Situation
As of today, we have identified two key selling zones for gold:
Sell Zone 1: $2347 - $2350
Sell Zone 2: $2365 - $2370
3. Impact of China's Gold Buying Strength
China has been a major player in the gold market, with its buying strength often acting as a significant support for gold prices. However, recent reports suggest a decrease in China's gold buying. This reduction can be attributed to several factors:
Economic Slowdown: China's economic growth has been slowing down, impacting its investment in commodities, including gold.
Policy Shifts : Changes in China's monetary policies and a focus on diversifying its reserves may also lead to reduced gold purchases.
BRICS Currency Initiative : As BRICS aims to create a new currency to challenge the US dollar, China may be reallocating its resources and strategic focus away from gold.
4. Implications for Gold Prices
The reduction in gold buying from China can lead to several potential impacts on gold prices:
Decreased Demand: With China being a significant buyer, a reduction in demand can lead to downward pressure on gold prices.
Market Sentiment: Market participants often take cues from major economies like China. A perceived lack of interest from China can result in bearish sentiment among other investors.
Geopolitical Factors: The BRICS' initiative to create a new currency may also introduce uncertainty and volatility in the currency and commodity markets, influencing gold prices.
5. Trading Strategy
Given the current situation, traders should consider the identified selling zones for potential trade setups:
Sell Zone 1 ($2347 - $2350): This zone represents a near-term resistance level where sellers might be active. Traders can look for bearish signals to enter short positions around this area.
Sell Zone 2 ($2365 - $2370) : This higher resistance zone could offer a more favorable risk-reward ratio for selling, especially if gold prices make a significant move upwards before facing resistance.
Optimistic about Gold, increased then decreased againWorld gold prices increased with spot gold increasing by 15 USD to 2,350.7 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,352.5 USD/ounce, up 18 USD compared to yesterday morning.
World yellow metal prices increased slightly at the beginning of the week as investors expected an important inflation report released this weekend that would change the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) view on cutting cuts. interest rates.
Recently, the Fed's positive interest rate stance has caused great pressure on the precious metals market. According to UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, gold has suffered from more hawkish comments from Fed officials and better-than-expected US economic data. Bullion has lost $100 since the precious metal hit a record high of $2,449.89 an ounce last week.
According to the latest Fed meeting minutes, US Central Bank officials indicated that it may take longer than expected to bring inflation down to 2%.
According to FXTM market analyst Lukman Otunuga, in the current environment, the gold market will be sensitive to inflation data. Accordingly, if the report shows downward price pressure, it may arouse hopes of cutting interest rates by the Fed and boost gold prices. On the contrary, if PCE is higher than market forecasts, it will deal another blow to expectations of Fed interest rate cuts and cause gold prices to fall even deeper. This expert said that the downward momentum could bring the price to the support level of 2,300 USD/ounce or lower.
Buying Silver at 22$ based on H.Marks Cycle theory.Risk and Time are in opposite sides of a coin. Meaning what is unknown equals risk. Markets are forward pricing mechanism, meaning when something is known - usually was already priced in (bought with risk).
H.Marks theory was you should buy things in advance, when there was hypothetical most risk; in practice it would be the least risk (as shown in graph). As long as there were hedges and drivers? You cant measure future demand?
Here key words were economic gravity and inflation trend (unknown). Once we saw inflation in mid-January -> we could start placing bets on silver (22$).
//Highest profit comes from buying in advance (combining w/ 200dma cycle?). When something is "risk-free" or certain -> it has 50-50 chance of profit and loss in both directions?; when something is "small risk", certain has small returns.
//this works as long as there is 1:5 potential.
Markets uneasy about Fed policy, OPEC policy meeting draws atten
Unexpectedly strong U.S. economic data made the market uneasy about the outlook for U.S. inflation and interest rates, which in turn affected gold price trends. A business survey released by S&P Global supported the view among many traders that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates higher for longer. This expectation has heightened market concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy, which is not good news for traders looking forward to a rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) pointed to stronger growth and the possibility of a new round of inflation, further undermining market expectations for a rate cut. The hawkish tone in the minutes of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting also suggested that policymakers were not confident in cutting interest rates, which pushed up U.S. bond yields and the dollar, affecting metals markets. While the current policy response is likely to include keeping the Fed's benchmark policy rate at current levels, the minutes also reflected discussion of possible further rate hikes, adding to market concerns about rising interest rates.
However, reserve buying in Asia remains a significant driver, which may limit gold's losses for the time being. As a safe-haven asset, gold still has certain appeal amid increasing global economic uncertainty. Investors need to pay attention to the development of the global economic situation, especially changes in U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy, as well as the impact of geopolitical risks and other factors on gold prices.
As a safe-haven asset, gold has been affected by global economic and political turmoil, and has recently experienced fluctuations against the backdrop of a strong U.S. dollar and strong U.S. economic data. On May 24, spot gold hit a two-week low and is currently trading around $2,338, falling for three consecutive trading days. One of the main reasons behind this fluctuation is that the US Federal Reserve's hawkish delay in cutting interest rates has boosted the US dollar, which is expected to record its largest weekly gain in a month and a half, while the US dollar's strength usually puts pressure on gold prices. Next week, gold will focus on the support level formed after the 1-hour downward trend line breaks through.
Have a nice weekend, if you like my analysis, please continue to follow me, thank you
Non-farm expectations increased sharply when the FED became hawk“If the PCE record is better than marketplace forecasts, this can be some other assault on FED hobby price reduce expectations, inflicting gold expenses to fall even deeper.”
Notably, Kitco News`s ultra-modern weekly gold survey indicates that greater than 3-quarters of enterprise specialists assume that gold expenses will pass sideways or lower this week.
14 Wall Street analysts consulted the Kitco News gold survey. Sentiment towards valuable metals has worsened. Only 3 specialists (21%) expect gold expenses will upward thrust better this week. There are 8 analysts (accounting for 57%) predicting gold expenses will lower. Another 3 majors (seeking out 21% of the total) are identified, trending sideways this week.
Meanwhile, 195 votes had been solid in the course of Kitco's on-line visit. Main Street traders have a greater bullish view on valuable metals. ninety four retail traders (or 48%) expect gold expenses will upward thrust this week.
Another 50% (equal to 26%) anticipated the rate could be lower. Meanwhile, fifty one people (equal to the ultimate 21%) expect expenses will stay strong this week.
❓ New ATH for GOLD? Multitimeframe context ❓Bullish confluence for GOLD on MTF, LTF and HTF
Expecting new ATH next week
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Trading strategy today, downtrendKitco News' latest gold survey shows more than three-quarters of industry experts believe gold prices have stabilized or will fall next week. Meanwhile, half of retail traders polled still believe the precious metal could move higher in the coming days.
ActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista said that information in the Fed's meeting minutes has caused traders to push back the expected interest rate cut from September to November. This change has helped push Treasury yields and the USD higher and put pressure on precious metals.
Market strategist Colin Cieszynski of SIA Wealth Management is neutral on gold this week. He said that the gold market will be quiet this week without important events.
Reports released this week include: Consumer confidence report, preliminary report on GDP in the first quarter of the US, weekly unemployment benefit applications, pending home sales, Personal consumption expenditure reports along with personal income reports in the US
Gold is expected to be quiet this week, entry sell todayWorld gold prices tend to increase with spot gold increasing by 2.4 USD compared to last week's closing level to 2,335.7 USD/ounce.
Last week, world gold prices continuously "plunged" after breaking all the records conquered in April. Kitco News's latest weekly gold survey results showed that more than three-quarters of experts believe gold prices are stable or will fall in the near term, while half of retail traders still believe the precious metal could move higher in the coming days.
Looking at gold's fluctuations last week, senior market analyst Darin Newsom of Barchart.com said that gold is likely to decline this week.
Sharing the same view, Bannockburn Global Forex CEO Marc Chandler also sees further downside risks for gold in the near future. According to Chandler, the reason gold set a record high early last week at 2,450 USD/ounce was because the market reacted to information related to the accident that claimed the life of the President of Iran. However, the strength of the USD caused gold to be sold off and plummet to nearly 2,300 USD/ounce.
Besides, the decrease in demand for gold from Chinese investors is also a disadvantage for this precious metal. Chandler forecasts that gold's initial resistance this week is at $2,375/ounce. Support is in the range of $2,275 to $2,300 per ounce.
Market strategist Colin Cieszynski of SIA Wealth Management is neutral on gold this week. He said that the gold market will be quiet this week without important events.