Gold Updates April 17th ahead of Unemployment Claims🧠 Updated Structure & Trend (April 17 – Pre-Weekend Trading)
✅ HTF (D1, H4): Price has made a new all-time high at 3357, extending the bullish run — but we're now deep in premium exhaustion territory.
🟠 M30–H1: First signs of distribution and internal CHoCH on M15 are showing. No follow-through above ATH. Price is stalling, likely waiting for NY volume.
⚠️ Volatility is low, and Friday is a market holiday, so any manipulation or rejection will likely happen today.
🔼 New ATH: 3357
This makes previous zones like 3333–3340 less relevant for traps.
Focus shifts to the true inducement zone:
🔻 3355–3365 → Main sniper short zone, valid only with clear M5 structure (BOS or reversal FVG).
🔻 Key Sell Zones (Updated):
3355–3365 → Final inducement / exhaustion zone near new ATH
3342–3345 → OB retest below weak high, valid only if confirmed with bearish PA on M5
🟢 Key Buy Zones (Same):
3284–3288 → OB + FVG + discount zone
3260–3265 → H1 equilibrium and last clean demand
3230–3235 → Deeper reentry zone if we get a flash crash before NY
📊 Trading Logic:
If NY session spikes again into 3355–3365, we're ready to snipe with precision.
If price fails to reclaim 3345 and breaks M5 structure, we target early shorts.
On a clean dump, we look for longs in the 3280–3260 range, with confirmation.
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
Goldupdate
XAU/USD 14 April 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed as per my analysis dated 11 April 2025 by printing higher highs which has repositioned CHoCH, which is denoted with a blue dotted line, much closer to current price action.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation by printing bearish CHoCH.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned in previous analysis that I will continue to monitor internal structure following the printing of a bearish CHoCH.
Due to the extreme bullishness of the market I will be mapping internal structure as it appears.
The reasoning behind this due to the fact of the increasing range of the internal structure. By mapping internal structure as it appears we are more likely to be in a good position to have an early warning of all HTF bearish pullback phase initiations.
Price has printed a double bullish iBOS since last analysis and we are now trading within an establish internal range where you will note that price has printed a double top and has been unable to close above weak internal high.
Intraday Expectation:
Technically price should target weak internal high priced at 3,244.340.
Alternative scenario:
Due to the narrowing of internal range, it could be a potential early signal that all HTF's are beginning their bearish pullback phase initiation. I would therefore not be surprised if price printed a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
Trump's tariff announcement will most likely cause considerably increased volatility and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 10 April 2025 Intraday Analysis H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 04 April 2025.
Since last analysis price has printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,187,835
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed as I mentioned in yesterday's analysis whereby I commented that it would be worthwhile to note that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS as H4 TF has printed a bullish reaction from discount of 50% EQ.
Price subsequently printed a bearish CHoCH, however, price quickly once again formed a higher high, therefore, I will apply discretion and not classify previous CHoCH in order not to distort internal structure as the move was most probably an outlier due to Trump announcing 90 day pause on tariffs.
Price has printed a further bearish CHoCH, however, I will continue to monitor price.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone, of which one is well positioned at 50% of internal EQ, before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,132.630
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
Trump's tariff announcement will most likely cause considerably increased volatility and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
WHY EURUSD IS BULLISH ?? DETAILED ANALYSISEURUSD has officially broken out of a clean bullish pennant pattern on the 4H chart, confirming the bullish momentum that has been building over the past week. After a sharp rally, price consolidated within a contracting range, forming the classic pennant shape. With the breakout now confirmed and price currently trading at 1.106, I’m anticipating a continuation toward the projected target at 1.143 — offering a potential 300+ pip gain in this move.
Technically, the breakout is supported by increasing bullish volume, strong impulse candles, and a clear structure of higher lows. The pennant served as a healthy consolidation zone, allowing buyers to regain control before the next leg up. Price has respected support at 1.096 and is now printing bullish continuation signals with momentum indicators pointing north.
Fundamentally, today’s market sentiment favors EUR strength, especially as the US dollar comes under pressure due to rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year. Inflation data in the eurozone remains sticky, supporting the ECB’s cautious stance on monetary easing. Meanwhile, weaker US labor market data and softening retail figures are weighing on dollar demand.
With both technicals and fundamentals aligned, I’m expecting further upside on EURUSD. The structure is solid, the breakout is clean, and sentiment supports continued bullish flow. I’ll be holding my bias firmly bullish unless the price falls back below 1.096, which would invalidate the setup. For now, all eyes are on 1.120 short term and eventually 1.143 as the full pennant projection completes.
WHY XAUUSD IS BULLISH ?? TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTALSXAUUSD is currently trading around the key psychological level of 3000, and as expected, price action has just completed a textbook retest of the previous breakout zone. The support level near 2960–2980 has held strongly, giving gold the momentum it needs for the next leg up. Price has reacted with a clear bullish bounce from this demand zone, confirming the structure and setting up for a potential continuation toward the 3100 target.
From a technical perspective, we’re seeing a classic bullish continuation move. The previous impulse to the upside was followed by a correction phase, which respected the support area now acting as a launchpad. This bounce, combined with strong candle formations on the 12H and daily charts, suggests bulls are regaining control. Volume is gradually increasing, aligning with the anticipated breakout from the recent consolidation.
On the fundamentals side, the gold market remains well-supported. Recent macroeconomic data shows inflationary pressures are still lingering, while expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year continue to weigh on the US dollar. Geopolitical tensions and increased central bank gold accumulation are adding further demand for safe-haven assets like gold. These drivers remain bullish catalysts as long as uncertainty stays elevated and real yields remain low.
With price holding above 3000 and a strong structure in place, I expect continuation toward 3100 in the near term. This is a high-probability setup supported by both technicals and fundamentals. I’ll be closely watching for higher lows and continuation signals above 3020 for additional confirmation. Risk management remains key, but the market structure strongly favors further upside.
XAUUSD Market Recap – “Sniper Entry + NFP Chaos = Full TP Party”📊 XAUUSD Market Recap – “Sniper Entry + NFP Chaos = Full TP Party” 🎯💣
✅ Sniper Sell @ 3135 – Textbook Execution
The daily plan's sell scenario from 3135–3145 played out perfectly:
Premium zone + valid OB
FVG rejection + bearish PA (M5/M15 CHoCH)
Three take-profits hit: 3120 → 3086 → 3054
Structure respected, price never looked back 🔫
🔥 Post-NFP Breakdown – April 5, 2025
📉 NFP (Actual): 228K vs. 140K Expected
📈 Strong surprise to the upside – job creation smashed expectations
📉 Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (vs 4.1%)
📉 Slight increase – softens the impact of strong jobs number
💬 Market Reaction?
Gold dumped hard post-data, as strong NFP spooked the market
Algorithmic move: sweep → push down → bounce on deep FVG
Market front-ran deeper demand (below 3054), tagging 3036 briefly
🔁 What Got Mitigated:
✅ Premium supply zone @ 3135–3145
✅ 3086–3100 OB demand fully tapped
✅ 3054–3040 imbalance filled
✅ Final reaction wick @ 3036–3038 bounced right off deeper imbalance
🧲 Still in Play / Unmitigated:
🟦 3029–2985 = untouched D1 imbalance
🟡 Small rejection gap @ 3081–3085 (may act as intraday retest zone)
🔴 Possible liquidity below 3000 still untouched
🧠 Summary:
✅ Plan respected
✅ NFP added fuel
✅ Gold respected PA structure to the pip
🎯 Sniper sell from 3135 = perfect execution
Market Update (No Buy/Sell Bias)🧠 Structural Recap: Why Gold Did What It Did
🔄 Mitigation & Reaction Zones Review
✅ Premium Supply Zone @ 3144–3160 (H1-H4)
— Price tapped into this key premium area and sharply rejected it. This indicates a successful mitigation of that supply zone.
— This zone previously aligned with the weak high and premium structure, adding to its weight.
🟦 Mid-Range FVGs @ 3120–3130 (H1)
— This area acted as the bounce point today after price wicked down aggressively.
— The strong wick from 3086–3144 confirms buyer interest post-news, filling imbalance and mitigating prior demand (on H1).
🟫 Mitigated Demand Zone @ 3086–3096 (H1-H4)
— This demand zone was pierced and fully tapped. We saw a textbook bounce with strong reaction, suggesting the zone is now mitigated.
— A notable EQ + strong candle from this zone created bullish displacement.
🔵 Unmitigated Discount Demand @ 3054–3080 (H4)
— This remains a key untouched demand. Price wicked close to it but didn’t tap.
— If we get another push down, this is still valid and unmitigated.
🧱 Below 3050: Unmitigated Macro Zone (D1)
— The large OB/FVG combo around 2970–3030 still hasn’t been mitigated. This remains untouched liquidity in a deeper pullback.
📰 News Review — April 3, 2025
Trump’s Conference Commentary
— Hawkish rhetoric around economic strategy but no clear monetary focus.
— Mixed signals caused initial DXY strength, but later market corrected.
US Jobless Claims & ISM Services PMI
— Slightly worse-than-expected numbers, showing cooling economy signs.
— This supported XAU recovery post-drop as rate hike sentiment weakened.
Geopolitical Noise (Middle East)
— Continued tensions are keeping safe-haven demand intact, especially below 3100.
🧠 TL;DR
Zones like 3144–3160 and 3086–3096 are now mitigated.
3054–3080 and 2970–3030 remain unmitigated, future bounce areas.
Today’s volatility was news-driven, but liquidity still sits lower.
We’re currently in mid-mitigation flow, with the market respecting PA zones well.
XAU/USD 24 March 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias and analysis remains the same as analysis dated 23 March 2025.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH following printing further all time highs.
Price is now trading within an established internal range. I will however continue to monitor price.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or nested Daily and H4 demand levels before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,057.590.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
As per analysis dated 19 March 2025 whereby I mentioned as an alternative scenario that internal range has significantly narrowed. All HTF's require a pullback, therefore, it would be completely viable if price printed a bearish iBOS.
This is how price printed, by printing a bearish iBOS.
Price has yet to print a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation, however, price has traded into premium of 50% internal EQ, therefore, I am happy to confirm internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price has traded in to premium of 50% EQ and has mitigated M15 supply zone.
Technically, price to target weak internal low priced at 2,999.465.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 17 March 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 16 March 2025.
Previous analysis and bias was not met as price did not target weak internal low.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to either trade down to discount of 50% internal EQ, or Daily/H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH confirming internal range, however, price has not in any way pulled back significantly enough to classify current internal high as an iBOS, should price print higher than current internal high.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 13 March 2025
Analysis and bias has not been met, largely due macroeconomic events, particularly the Trump trade tariff war, which is causing uncertainty within the markets which is supporting Gold price.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS.
Within the structure following the iBOS, price has printed a several bearish CHoCH's with very minimal pullbacks before continuing bullish.
In order not to distort internal structure range I will apply discretion and not classify bearish CHoCH without considerable pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Await for price to print Bearish CHoCH which is supported by a pullback relative to recent price action.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
AUDUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH ??? DETAILED ANALYSISAUDUSD is currently trading around 0.62900 and forming a **bearish flag pattern**, a well-known continuation pattern that suggests further downside momentum. After a sharp downward move, price action is consolidating within a parallel channel, indicating a potential breakdown. If the bearish flag confirms with a breakout below the support zone, we could see a strong move toward 0.60900.
Technically, the **0.62500 level acts as a critical support**, and a breakdown below it could accelerate selling pressure. The next key support zone aligns around 0.62000, followed by the ultimate target of 0.60900. Volume confirmation and a decisive close below the flag's lower boundary will strengthen the bearish outlook. Traders should watch for price rejection near resistance levels and any signs of increased selling pressure.
From a fundamental perspective, the **us dollar remains strong amid hawkish Federal Reserve policy**, while risk-off sentiment is weighing on the australian dollar. Factors such as weaker economic data from China, declining commodity prices, and lower demand for high-yielding currencies could further drive audusd lower. Additionally, expectations of **RBA's monetary policy stance** and global risk trends will play a crucial role in shaping the pair’s direction.
In conclusion, audusd is on the verge of breaking out of a **bearish flag pattern**, signaling potential downside movement toward 0.60900. Traders should stay alert for a confirmed breakout with strong bearish momentum, as this setup offers a high-probability trade opportunity.
XAUUSD Bullish Pennant Breakout: Gold Aiming for 3020XAUUSD is currently consolidating around 2920, forming a **bullish pennant pattern**, a strong continuation signal indicating potential upside momentum. Gold has been in a steady uptrend, and this consolidation phase suggests that the market is gathering strength before the next move. A breakout above the pennant resistance could push prices toward the psychological level of **3000**, with an extended target of **3020**.
From a technical perspective, a **bullish pennant** is characterized by a brief consolidation after a strong rally, typically leading to another upward surge. If gold **breaks out with strong volume**, it could confirm further bullish momentum. **Key resistance levels** to watch are 2950 and 2970, while **strong support levels** are at 2900 and 2880. A successful breakout could attract more buyers, fueling a strong rally toward the **3020 level**.
On the **fundamental side**, gold remains well-supported by **geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate adjustments**. If economic uncertainty increases or the Fed signals a more dovish stance, gold prices could gain further momentum. Additionally, a weaker **U.S. dollar and falling bond yields** could add fuel to the bullish case for XAUUSD.
In conclusion, XAUUSD is forming a **bullish pennant**, signaling a potential breakout toward 3020. **Traders should watch for volume confirmation and breakout signals above resistance levels** to enter positions strategically. If the breakout is confirmed, we can expect gold to gain further strength, presenting a great buying opportunity for traders.
XAU/USD 10 March 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 07 March 2024.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH according to analysis and bias dated 28 February 2025.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is now trading in premium of 50% internal EQ where we could see a reaction at any point. Price could also target H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 2,832.720
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 03 March 2023.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 28 February 2025, whereby price printed a bullish CHoCH but stated I would continue to monitor price.
On this occasion I have marked the previous bullish CHoCH in red as price did not pull back deeply enough to warrant internal structure breaks, additionally, there was minimal time spent .
Price has printed a further bullish CHoCH which is now confirmed. Price is not trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 2,832.720.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 04 March 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH according to analysis and bias dated 28 February 2025.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is now trading in premium of 50% internal EQ where we could see a reaction at any point. Price could also target H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 2,832.720
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 03 March 2023.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 28 February 2025, whereby price printed a bullish CHoCH but stated I would continue to monitor price.
On this occasion I have marked the previous bullish CHoCH in red as price did not pull back deeply enough to warrant internal structure breaks, additionally, there was minimal time spent .
Price has printed a further bullish CHoCH which is now confirmed. Price is not trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 2,832.720.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
JUVUSDT: Descending Channel – 120%-130% Gains on Breakout!JUVUSDT is currently forming a Descending Channel pattern, and it is looking for a breakout in the near future. The Descending Channel is a bearish technical pattern where the price oscillates between parallel descending trendlines, indicating that the price is in a downtrend. However, the pattern often leads to a breakout to the upside once the price clears the upper resistance trendline. With strong volume backing the pattern, the breakout could signal the start of a major bullish move, potentially driving the price up by 120% to 130%+.
The good volume behind the Descending Channel formation shows that the market is actively watching this level. A breakout from a descending channel often leads to a sharp rally, as many traders will jump in once the price breaks through the upper resistance. The growing investor interest in JUVUSDT suggests that the market is becoming more optimistic about the potential upside. This increasing participation could fuel the breakout, pushing the price higher and leading to the anticipated 120% to 130%+ gain.
The potential for substantial gains in JUVUSDT becomes more apparent as the price nears the breakout point. The Descending Channel pattern is typically followed by a reversal, especially when the price breaks through the resistance and gains momentum. If JUVUSDT can maintain strength at these levels and break above the upper trendline of the channel, a bullish phase could begin, driving the price to new highs. With the increasing volume and investor interest, the projected 120% to 130%+ gain is within reach.
Traders should monitor the price closely as it approaches the resistance trendline, looking for confirmation of the breakout. A successful breakout above the Descending Channel could result in a swift upward movement, providing significant returns for those who position themselves ahead of the move. The combination of a clear technical setup, strong volume, and growing investor interest makes JUVUSDT a prime candidate for those seeking high-potential trades.
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MOVEUSDT: Falling Wedge Pattern – 130%-140% Gains ExpectedMOVEUSDT is currently forming a Falling Wedge pattern, a bullish chart formation that signals the potential for a significant breakout. The Falling Wedge is a consolidation pattern where the price gradually narrows between converging trendlines, indicating that the market is coiling up for a possible explosive move. Although the breakout has not yet occurred, the setup is promising, and traders are anticipating a strong upward move once the price breaks through the upper trendline. With good volume supporting the formation, the breakout could lead to substantial gains in the range of 130% to 140%+.
The Falling Wedge pattern is a reliable indicator of an impending trend reversal, and the good volume accompanying this formation increases the likelihood of a successful breakout. When a price breaks above the resistance trendline, it often triggers a surge in buying activity, pushing the price higher. The growing investor interest in MOVEUSDT highlights that many traders are positioning themselves ahead of the anticipated move, ready to take advantage of the potential upside. With expectations of 130% to 140%+ gains, MOVEUSDT presents an exciting opportunity for those looking for high-reward setups in the market.
Investor confidence in MOVEUSDT is building as more participants notice the bullish potential of this setup. The volume accompanying the Falling Wedge formation suggests that there is enough market interest to drive the price higher once the breakout happens. If the price breaks above the upper trendline, it could see a sharp rally toward the projected gains, as further resistance levels are taken out. The current market sentiment, coupled with strong technical signals, positions MOVEUSDT as a strong candidate for an upward price movement.
Traders should stay alert and monitor the breakout point closely. Once MOVEUSDT clears the upper trendline with good volume, the move could trigger a chain reaction of buying, pushing the price toward the expected gain range. The combination of a well-formed technical pattern, solid volume, and increasing investor interest makes MOVEUSDT a crypto pair to watch closely for potential significant returns in the near future.
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XAUUSD Bullish Pennant Breakout: Retesting Before Targeting 3000XAUUSD is currently trading at 2934, with a target price of 3000, indicating a potential move of 66 points to the upside. This comes after the pair has already hit a 100% profit target following a bullish pennant breakout. The bullish pennant is a continuation pattern that typically forms after a strong price move, followed by a period of consolidation. After breaking the upper trendline of the pennant, prices often continue in the same direction, which in this case, is bullish. However, after the breakout, a small retesting phase is possible before the price resumes its upward momentum.
From a technical perspective, after reaching the 100% profit target, there is often a natural pullback or retest of the breakout point. This allows traders to re-enter the market with confirmation that the previous breakout was valid. The retesting phase is essential to ensure that support holds and provides a low-risk entry point for the next leg up toward the target of 3000.
Fundamentally, gold prices remain supported by a combination of factors, including ongoing inflation concerns, geopolitical risks, and central bank policies. With inflationary pressures still evident across major economies and global uncertainty around geopolitical events, gold remains a favored safe-haven asset. Additionally, the U.S. Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates will continue to play a significant role in shaping gold’s outlook, with lower rates typically supporting higher gold prices.
In summary, XAUUSD has successfully completed the bullish pennant breakout and reached the 100% profit target. A potential small retest before the next bullish move toward 3000 presents a solid re-entry opportunity. Monitoring global economic and geopolitical developments will be key to ensuring continued upward momentum for gold.
NZDJPY Bearish Flag: Retest Complete, Targeting 82.60NZDJPY is currently trading at 86.60, with a target price of 82.60, indicating a potential downward movement of 300+ pips. The pair is forming a bearish flag pattern, which typically follows a strong downtrend and is followed by a period of consolidation. This pattern suggests that after the breakout and a successful retest of the lower trendline, the price could continue its decline toward the 82.60 target.
Technically, a bearish flag is often seen as a continuation pattern, signaling that the downtrend is likely to resume after the consolidation phase. The successful retest of the breakout point confirms the market’s readiness to move lower. In this case, if NZDJPY breaks below the support level, it could accelerate the move toward the 82.60 target.
Fundamentally, the New Zealand dollar has been under pressure due to a weaker global risk appetite and softer economic data. In contrast, the Japanese yen benefits from its status as a safe-haven currency, particularly during times of market uncertainty. These fundamental factors may continue to support a bearish move for NZDJPY, especially if global market sentiment remains cautious.
In summary, the bearish flag pattern on NZDJPY suggests further downside potential, with a target of 82.60. Traders should watch for confirmation of the bearish continuation after the retest of the breakout level, as well as monitor global risk sentiment and economic data from both New Zealand and Japan.
EUR/USD Bullish Rebound Strong Support SignalEUR/USD is trading at approximately 1.0430. Your target price of 1.0630 suggests an anticipated upward movement of 200 pips, indicating a bullish outlook as the pair rebounds from a strong support level.
Technical analysis indicates that EUR/USD has rebounded off multi-month trend support, with the pair now trading unchanged for 2025. This suggests that a breakout may be imminent, with key resistance levels to watch at 1.05 and 1.0573/87. A decisive move above these levels could pave the way toward your target price of 1.0630.
Fundamentally, the European Central Bank (ECB) has implemented five interest rate cuts since June, with the possibility of up to three more reductions this year. This monetary easing stance aims to stimulate economic activity within the Eurozone. In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve has adopted a more cautious approach, indicating no immediate plans for rate cuts despite persistent inflation. These divergent monetary policies could influence the EUR/USD dynamics, potentially supporting a bullish scenario for the euro.
In summary, the EUR/USD pair is exhibiting signs of a potential bullish breakout, supported by technical indicators and contrasting monetary policies between the ECB and the Federal Reserve. Traders should monitor key resistance levels and stay attuned to central bank communications to make informed trading decisions.
XAU/USD 14 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024.
Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase.
Price Action Analysis:
Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity,
for two possible reasons.
1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855.
Intraday Expectation:
Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
Yesterday's Intraday expectation was not met with price failing to target weak internal high, printing a bearish iBOS. Internal structure has now aligned itself with swing structure.
This could potentially be an early indication that both Daily and H4 pullback phases are incomplete. It would also be useful to remember that Weekly TF remains in its bearish pullback phase.
Price subsequently printed a bullish CHoCH thereby confirming internal range and indication of bullish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday Expectation:
Price has yet to trade in to premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 supply zone. Expectation is for price to target weak internal low, priced at 2,656.880.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
THE KOG REPORT - WeeklyQuick update on our weekly chart:
As you can see we're above the red box on support which now needs to be broken downside for us to go lower. Most of our traders will recognise a pattern in this chart so we'll say we would like to see an attempt at the upper red box before a potential RIP.
Key level here 2703-16 resistance. 2665-55 support
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As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAU/USD 10 December 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024.
Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase.
Price Action Analysis:
Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity,
for two possible reasons.
1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855.
Intraday Expectation:
Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
Yesterday's intraday expectation was met with price successfully targeting weak internal high priced at 2,667.150.
Price has yet to print a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation. Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
We are currently trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Price has traded in to discount of internal 50% EQ.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation by printing a bearish CHoCH. Technically price to then trade down to discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 12 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024. Awaiting candle closure to confirm bullish iBOS
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
As highlighted in yesterday's analysis dated 11 December 2024, price was expected to print a bullish iBOS to narrow the internal range, and this is precisely how price printed.
Following bullish iBOS, price printed a bearish iBOS.
We are now trading within an established internal range. While price has not yet printed a bearish CHoCH, it has traded up to the premium of the 50% internal EQ.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is currently trading within the premium of internal 50% EQ. Technically, price is expected to target the weak internal low at 2,700.810.
Alternative Scenario:
Price may potentially seek further liquidity to complete a bullish iBOS on the H4, therefore, bearish momentum may face limitations.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
GOLD Every Rise Has Its Sunset- From 2000 to today, gold has surged by an impressive 1000%, a remarkable performance for the world's leading asset.
- Keep in mind, every ascent is bound to face a descent someday.
- I’ll skip the deep dive into politics and fundamentals, but the picture is clear: with Trump winning the election, peace could make a comeback. Gold typically rises when fears of war spike, but as those fears ease, its value tends to drop.
- As always, the chart tells the story. Take a look at the Fibonacci levels— a prime buying opportunity is likely to emerge in the $1200 to $800 range.
- i will post in comments my older Gold Analysis.
Happy Tr4Ding !