Will gold come back or continue to increase strongly?World gold prices tend to increase with spot gold increasing by 3.2 USD compared to last week's closing level to 3,362.9 USD/ounce.
Last week, the yellow metal posted modest gains as expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would loosen policy this year increased following weak economic data. Experts say that next week is an important time to decide whether gold will reach a new record or not when the market receives the April consumer price index and producer price index reports. Recently, The Fed emphasized that America's inflation war is not effective when inflation is still much higher than the target level of 2%. In addition to the consumer price index and producer price index, this week the market will wait for the US retail sales report, the number of weekly unemployment benefit applications, and the statement of Fed Chairman Powell in Amsterdam.
According to Larry McDonald, founder of the Bear Traps Report, the US is in a persistent inflation war, where all asset classes will see "significant" revaluations and as Therefore, capital flows in the market will gradually shift to hard assets. “This is the time when the Fed takes action, which creates a bullish scenario for hard assets,” he said.
McDonald believes that some metals have significant price increases and predicts gold prices will reach $3,000-3,500/ounce in the next 12-18 months.
Golgsignal
Xauusd:How much room is there for growth?
Today will usher in the most important data of the week-the annual and monthly rates of the U.S. CPI price index for October. Judging from market expectations, there is only a 3.3% growth rate, but the previous value is 3.7%, which means that everyone is generally optimistic about the U.S. inflation last month.
In addition, a survey by the New York Fed showed that inflation expectations after one year fell from 3.7% in September to 3.6%, inflation expectations after three years were 3%, the same as in September, and inflation expectations after five years will fall from 2.8% in September to 2.7%.
This is still far from the Fed's 2% target, and the pace of tightening may not stop easily.
Yesterday's gold was the same as I expected, rebounding in the first support range
Judging from yesterday's rebound, it is a short-term stop-fall signal. For today's market, we must pay attention to the trend of the US market. CPI data is an unavoidable risk point.Whether it is good or bad will have a big impact on the gold price.
If you avoid the CPI data, on the technical side, I personally think that the probability of continuing the rebound is greater. As long as the rebound continues, today's pullback will give everyone more opportunities.
Yesterday the lowest point was in 1931 and the highest point was in 1949, so today it needs to rise and must break through 1950.
We need to pay attention to the upper resistance point range:
1960-1965
1952-1955
Pay attention to the range of support points below:
1935-1940
1930-1933
So you can still buy gradually in the support range today, and strictly set a stop loss to prevent the unfavorable CPI data. You can also wait for the CPI data to be released before trading to improve your success rate.
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