Which way from here for FCEL?This is an interesting set up for Fuel Cell Energy. The trend is a “Go”, but we are struggling to match the recent high of the move. The top of the gap from the 2nd of December recently acted as resistance and so that will need to be cleared for there to be a rally back to $11.
The GoNoGo Oscillator is riding the zero line causing the climbing grid of GoNoGo Squeeze to rise to extremes. We will watch to see in which direction it breaks out to determine prices near term direction.
If the oscillator is able to break out of the Squeeze into positive territory then we can expect price to move higher, in an attempt to set new highs above $11.
Gonogo
More gains for Palantir TechA nice set up here on the 4hr GoNoGo Chart of Palantir Tech. A strong “Go” trend has been in place since the beginning of November at a price just over $10. Having run all the way up to over $33, we have seen a pullback against the trend. This has shown some weakness with the “Go” bars painting the paler aqua color.
Concurrently, the GoNoGo Oscillator has fell to the zero line for the first time on December 2nd and has been riding the zero line which has caused the climbing grid of the GoNoGo Squeeze to rise to extremes. On the last bar, the oscillator is breaking out of the squeeze to the upside which could suggest a renewal of the “Go” trend. With this, we see a green low risk entry signal under the price bar.
We would like to see the oscillator stay above zero and volume to pick up (this would be visible when the oscillator turns dark blue). Look for price to test the $33 level once more.
General Electric still looking strongIn our Monday morning Flight Path newsletter, we high-lighted General Electric as a company that may perform strongly into the end of the year as the rotation in equities continues into sectors such as Industrials.
This week saw price dip but end the week strongly with another bright blue “Go” bar.
The GoNoGo Oscillator has also managed to stay nicely in positive territory.
We would next like to see the oscillator continue to rally , and for volume to pick up (the GoNoGo Oscillator would turn darker blue), which would give price the momentum to test last week’s highs and perhaps get above $11.
Is big tech coming back?We've seen Tesla race to new highs in the last few weeks after moving sideways before that. This chart is a weekly chart of Apple, and shows that it has yet to follow suit. However, it does seem to be trying to break out of the consolidation it has been in.
The GoNoGo Trend is a solid "Go" and the GoNoGo Oscillator so far has been able to find support at the zero line and in fact has just triggered a low risk entry. This is very positive when in a "Go" trend. We would like to see volume come back in, (the oscillator line would go dark blue) and a significant move into positive territory on the oscillator. If that happens, we would look for price to move to challenge prior highs of around 138.
Bitcoin long term possibilitiesArticles abound with stories of Bitcoin target projections of over 300,000. Projecting so far out is an interesting intellectual exercise. But, let's look at a long term chart of Bitcoin using monthly data.
If this is an ascending triangle with an upside breakout, and if price can get above the all time high that is the high of the pattern, then a projected dollar move based on the widest part of the triangle is around 30,000.
Now, we are using a log chart because the price swings have been so large that it makes sense to do so. If we project the price move based on the percentage gains that span the width of the triangle, then we end up close to 100,000. If we take a projected move based on the size of the rally into the triangle, then yes, we are around 200,000. Could it be possible?
Bull flag low risk entry for Fisker!Happy Thanksgiving extra idea!
A lot of discussion surrounding the electric vehicle market is whether TSLA can hold on to its market share. Fisker, is a brand that is trying to eat into that EV pie.
Here is a classic bull flag as represented by the GoNoGo chart.
A "Go" trend is established, and we then saw a red short term counter trend correction arrow that alerted us to the consolidation against the trend. Today with the current bar, we seem to be breaking above that pattern and with it we see a green low risk entry circle.
Remember, the arrows and circles come from the GoNoGo Oscillators interaction with the zero line and therefore represent increasing and decreasing momentum. The green circle, in a "Go" trend, represents a relatively low risk entry point. You could use a measured move based on the move into the pattern as an initial target, around $24.
Bitcoin continues to push higherIn our Flight Path newsletter this week pre market on Monday morning, we highlighted Bitcoin among other assets as they approached multi year highs.
Bitcoin has continued to test those highs in the last few days extending a run that has seen the cryptocurrency rally from under $11000 at the last “Go” flag to over $19000 as we speak.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
ACB continues to consolidateWe looked at ACB a little while ago and noted that after a sharp rise, it was trying to find support at the breakaway gap from the 6th of November. It has since consolidated within the bounds of that gap which could now be support and resistance as we go forward.
We have been waiting for momentum to show its hand as the GoNoGo Oscillator was riding the zero line. This has caused the GoNoGo Squeeze to climb to its extremes.
We know that after an extended period of low volatility price can move quickly and so we will watch the oscillator as it tries to break out of the Squeeze to the upside. If this continues we would expect price to move higher.
Goldman Sachs attempting to breakoutOn Monday in our Flight Path newsletter we highlighted Goldman Sachs. We see outperformance in the financial sector as the market rotates into new leadership.
We mentioned that price has consolidated sideways in a range since the crash from the pandemic.
While a new “Go” flag had been displayed on November 9th we discussed that there was strong overhead resistance from the range and that price would need to take out those prior highs in order to see a sustained up trend.
We did think it was possible though as this rally was accompanied by strong volume as shown by the GoNoGo Oscillator.
Now, this week price has indeed rallied and we see it is making a serious attack on the resistance levels. If it can solidify its place at and above 225 then that bodes well for this Go trend to finally take hold.
A pause for PLUG?After another strong rally, we see a red counter trend correction arrow above price. This indicates a cooling of positive momentum and suggest that price may struggle to make new gains in the short term.
This has happened over and over again during this incredible run.
With the “Go” trend solidly in place we have seen the low risk entries (Green circles) at the start of each surge and then the red counter trend correction arrows signaling the consolidation.
If the pattern repeats, as the GoNoGo Oscillator falls to zero, we will look to see if it finds support again.
Long term "Go" flagged on General ElectricLast week flagged a “Go” trend for the first time since the crash in March on GE. We can also see that current price action has moved above the resistance set by the runaway gap.
The GoNoGo Oscillator led this change in trend by breaking above the zero line several bars ago and rallying into positive territory on heavy volume.
ACB looking to rally again from support levelsAfter the huge gap up on Friday, GoNoGo Charts signaled a red short term correction arrow at the end of Monday, suggesting that we may pull back for a few bars.
We have now seen that pull back as the GoNoGo Trend paints weaker aqua bars, but the “Go” trend remains in place.
It is very bullish that while staying in the “Go” trend, price has found support at the gap and rallied from there.
The GoNoGo Oscillator has also fallen to the zero line and is now riding the zero line. If the GoNoGo Oscillator can bounce into positive territory we will see a green low risk re-entry signal under price on the Trend chart.
Short term reversal, Shooting Star, for the S&P 500?The SPX shows a “Shooting Star” candle pattern. The shooting star candle is much like the “Inverted Hammer” but it comes after a move up in price.
This is a bearish candle for many reasons.
- After shooting higher, the bears were able to drive price all the way back below the open, near the low.
- Long wicks above the real body in candle charting therefore represent selling pressure.
- The close was near the open, creating a small real body.
- Small real bodies in candle charting represent indecision, uncertainty. This uncertain pause coming after a move up is not good for the bulls.
Adding weight to this perspective is that this candle pattern is formed at resistance of prior highs. When there are a confluence of events lining up then it allows an investor to have more confidence in the idea.
Also, interesting to note that the other major U.S. Indices are showing bearish candles. The Dow Jones Industrial is showing a similar candle to this, albeit just above prior highs, and the Nasdaq Composite is showing a “Bearish Engulfing” pattern.
Gold starts new "Go" trendOn Tuesday of this week we looked at Gold. Interestingly, it has broken above the resistance line that we had shown and is now a “Go”. This trend line now should operate as support. This is a fantastic example of polarity where resistance was support that is now support again.
The GoNoGo Oscillator has now also broken back above zero supporting the move in price.
Trend continues for Bitcoin!In our Monday morning Flight Path newsletter, we noted that we were bullish on Bitcoin. We analyzed the charts and discussed the strong trend in the digital asset and that investors looking for a lower volatility play could do well to look for an entry on a break out above resistance.
Now with Bitcoin trading above $15000 the trend is still a "Go" and the GoNoGo Oscillator is surging in positive territory.
Gold needs to find direction!Gold is rallying in the current bar. Does this say anything about the uncertainty in the stock markets? While the markets around the world have rallied today and U.S. futures suggest that the same will happen in America, Gold has painted an amber “Go Fish” bar, suggesting that the blend of technical concepts in the GoNoGo Trend are unable to find a trend.
At the same time, the GoNoGo Oscillator is testing the zero line from below. This should be resistance based on the preceding “NoGo” trend, but if the oscillator is able to break above zero into positive territory that would further signal the end of the “NoGo”.
TSLA trend change to "NoGo"In our weekly Flight Path newsletter this Monday we looked at several stocks reporting earnings this week. One was TSLA, and we noted weakness in the stock shown with an amber "Go Fish" bar.
Since then, this weakness has become a "NoGo" trend as we can see in the price panel.
The GoNoGo Oscillator has confirmed this price action with a sharp break below the zero line.
TUP showing exceptional strengthTupperware Brands Corporation is showing strength amongst the weakness of the general stock markets.
After consolidating sideways for a little over a month we saw a break out to the upside yesterday after a new “Go” trend was spotted 3 days ago.
This move sent price to a new high and closed above significant resistance of those prior highs.
At the same time, the GoNoGo Oscillator has broken back above zero, on heavy volume, confirming the bullish price action.
Renault is deliberating its next long term move!This is a long term weekly GoNoGo Chart of Renault. Interesting few weeks ahead. Note how the “NoGo” trend has bottomed and has formed an ascending triangle with higher lows. Price is nearing the upper bound of the triangle and as it does so has painted amber “Go Fish” bars, meaning that there is no recognizable trend currently.
The GoNoGo Oscillator is valiantly trying to significantly break above zero which would lead us to believe that a breakout might come to the upside.
However, if the oscillator falls back below zero we could see a break down below the lower bound of the ascending triangle. When an ascending triangle breaks to the downside we would likely set a target at the low of the beginning of the pattern. We will wait for the chart to tell us which way Renault is headed.
How high for Bitcoin?The NoGo outlined the crypto’s correction during the month of September and in early October we saw amber neutral bars signaling the trend may be changing. October 9th triggered the first Go flag and a bar later broke through resistance of the previous consolidation pattern. (Resistance that was support before) Now, we’ve seen a sharp rally and price has taken out prior highs trading up over $13000. Look for price to consolidate above $12500 in this new “Go” trend.
The GoNoGo Oscillator’s break into positive territory on heavier volume (dark blue of oscillator) helped confirm this price action.
EURUSD retested resistanceThe GoNoGo Chart of the EURUSD pair shows that price is still a “NoGo”.
We saw a retest of the resistance line that was once support for the “Go” trend.
During this time the GoNoGo Oscillator has been struggling with the zero line but now is back at zero. It will be important to see if the Oscillator stays below zero as it should if the “NoGo” trend is to continue.
Spotting continuation patterns (flags, pennants)There are many technical set ups that try to capture the specific market dynamics associated with trend continuation. We call them flags, pennants, buying the dips in an up trend or selling the rallies in a down trend, among other things.
The underlying market activity in these situations helps explain what happens.
In the case of a bullish move:
For some reason, a news event for example, there will be an influx of buyers causing price to move sharply up.
When this has happened price will consolidate as buyers take profits and some sellers enter. This is reflected in the chart by a short, slight, counter trend correction as both sides battle it out. During this time, there is likely to be reduced momentum and volume.
After a little while, buyers will overwhelm sellers and price will break out, above the upper bound of the consolidation.
The trend will resume, and price will move sharply again, typically in a measured move as large as the move preceding the consolidation.
GoNoGo Charts help identify patterns such as these. Above is a chart of $IEA
A Go Trend is in place, and when the consolidation happens we look for these things:
- The “Go” trend bars to weaken to an aqua color (latter part of shaded channel)
- The Oscillator to fall to zero on decreasing volume (paler blue of GoNoGo Oscillator)
- A low risk entry (green circle) to appear as the oscillator bounces off zero (we get two here)
- Volume to pick up as price leaves the pattern (dark blue of the GoNoGo Oscillator)
Lowe's testing resistance in an effort to set a new highIn our pre-market Monday Morning Flight Path newsletter, we noted that having been in a strong “Go” trend June through August, $LOW has consolidated sideways through September with rising lows and highs at the upper bound of the ascending triangle. We also saw upward buying pressure from the bulls pushing the lows higher. Additionally, a low-risk entry signal (green circle) had appeared on 10/1, suggesting that price might make an attack on the resistance above. The GoNoGo Oscillator found support at zero.
This week has seen price action follow the plan, with price now testing the upper bound of the ascending triangle and the GoNoGo Oscillator in positive territory. There may be resistance at these levels, but we'll be looking to see if the "Go" trend that is now in place with positive momentum can set a new high.