GoNoGo senses moment of truth for technologyWhat’s next for the technology sector?
Technology has been the leader this year, outperforming the S&P 500 throughout the volatile market reactions to Covid-19.
This week saw the sector fail at prior highs and yesterday’s price bar showed a weakening in the GoNoGo Trend.
Look to the GoNoGo Oscillator at this critical juncture. When in a strong trend, remember, the Oscillator should find support/resistance at the zero line. You can see this throughout the time period.
This is a non subjective level because it means that all momentum is neutral. In a strong uptrend for example, enthusiasm should pick up, and the GoNoGo Oscillator should rally off the zero line helping price make a new leg up.
If the GoNoGo Oscillator cannot stay positive and breaks below zero, then we expect price to struggle and the “Go” trend to really be threatened.
Gonogo
GoNoGo Charts sees short term SPX trend endingThis is a short term, hourly chart of the SPX. The “Go” trend that it has been in is being threatened.
The GoNoGo Trend indicator has painted mostly the paler blue bars as the market has moved sideways over the last day.
If you look at the GoNoGo Oscillator we can see that it has been struggling to stay above zero, as it should if the “Go” trend is healthy.
Pre market information is telling us that price will open significantly down. Most likely, this will break our upward sloping trend line and send the oscillator further into negative territory.
GoNoGo Charts: Will GBPAUD see a new leg down?How low can this pair go?
We’ve seen a strong “NoGo” since mid April. When we wrote our last analysis (4/22, linked) of this pair we were looking for a low risk entry in the form of a red circle after the “NoGo” trend was identified.
We got that on the 7th of May and now we see the GoNoGo Oscillator approaching the zero line from below again and in the upper panel the trend is showing signs of weakness with a couple of light pink bars.
If the downtrend is to continue, the GoNoGo Oscillator should get turned away from zero leading to a new leg down in price.
EURUSD looking to stay in "Go" trend: GoNoGo ChartsThis is a 4 hr chart of EURUSD.
After a strong “Go” move this pair has taken a pause, moving sideways and slightly against the trend after we saw a GoNoGo counter-trend arrow near the recent high.
During this consolidation, the GoNoGo Squeeze has climbed to its high, indicating reduced volatility as the GoNoGo Oscillator rides the zero line.
If we can come out of the Squeeze with positive momentum we’d expect a green re-entry circle and a new leg higher in the "Go" trend.
GoNoGo Charts sees Gold struggling to stay in channelThe left GoNoGo Chart is showing daily prices for gold. This is an interesting moment.
It appears that Gold prices are trying to break out below the lower bound of a trend channel. With this price action over the last few bars we see that the GoNoGo Trend painted a couple of amber neutral bars, suggesting that the “Go” trend is under threat.
in the lower panel, the GoNoGo Oscillator shows that after bearish divergence, momentum is negative and testing zero from below. Will prices fight to remain in the upward trend channel or is a drop coming?
On the right chart, we have a chart of Barrick Gold Corporation, the second largest gold mining corporation in the world.
Note how after breaking down out of its trend channel it painted several amber bars before flagging a “NoGo” and moving lower. The GoNoGo Oscillator led this change by breaking below and staying negative in the lower panel.
Will Gold follow suit?
GoNoGo Charts is a "Go" on ABEV with momentum and volumeFriday’s price has pushed ABEV above the highs of the consolidation range that we have seen since the lows of March.
The GoNoGo Trend Indicator is a strong “Go” and has been for a few bars. Initially the trend was flagged a “Go” but as it fought with resistance struggled to paint the brightest blue. It is a good sign to see the trend strengthening.
In the lower panel, the GoNoGo Oscillator has broken above zero and found support there, with renewed positive momentum as the price trend has strengthened.
It is also encouraging to see that the GoNoGo Oscillator has been dark blue during this recent price action, indicating that there is strong volume associated with it.
Positive momentum on GoNoGo Oscillator for SPXThis is the weekly GoNoGo Chart of the S&P 500. For the second week, it looks as if the GoNoGo Trend indicator will be painting a neutral amber bar, signaling uncertainty about the bearish conditions we’ve experienced since the drop in late February/March.
At the same time, a strong weekly finish would see the GoNoGo Oscillator crossing into positive territory for the first time since late February.
Positive signs, but the trend is not a “Go” until the GoNoGo Trend indicator is able to paint blue bars.
GoNoGo Charts sees Financials playing catch upThe financials sector looks as though its finally started to catch up with the overall stock market. This is a daily GoNoGo chart of XLF.
You can see that it has had a much longer, more drawn out recovery than most of the S&P sectors and has still yet to make up more than about half the fall.
Compare that to the tech sector which is right back, close to the highs of February.
The GoNoGo chart reflects this, with the GoNoGo Trend indicator flagging a “Go” most recently on May 26th.
The GoNoGo Oscillator is also now strongly positive and has been for several bars.
GBPJPY a "Go" to new high: GoNoGo ChartsThis currency pair has broken out of the GoNoGo Squeeze and established a “Go” trend.
After a few months of sideways consolidation a lack of momentum led to the climbing squeeze grid that we saw recently (grey arrow, lower panel).
The “Go” in price has made a higher high and looks set to challenge prior highs from earlier in the chart.
The GoNoGo Oscillator does show momentum at an extreme however, and so in the near term, there could be a countertrend reaction.
GoNoGo Charts: Gold looking to test upper bound of trend channelSince we last looked at Gold, it has been able to stay in a “Go” trend, making slightly higher highs and higher lows.
On the last bar, we saw a green re-entry icon, signaling that momentum went from neutral to positive while in a “Go” trend, typically a good entry point.
However, it is also true that overall, momentum has been falling and we can see that in the GoNoGo Oscillator panel below.
As long as the GoNoGo Oscillator can find support at zero, price should be able to rally and test the top of the trend channel that it is in.
GoNoGo Charts: Can Dominos Pizza break out?The daily GoNoGo Trend shows a “Go” for Dominos Pizza, and over the course of the last few weeks several re-entry green circles as the pizza giant keeps running up against overhead resistance.
The last bar shows a really strong effort to break out, and so we are interested to see what it can do this week.
Interestingly, the GoNoGo Oscillator in the lower panel shows momentum making lower highs with each attempt, so a significant rally off the zero line would be needed to confirm a break out.
GoNoGo shows pivotal moment on weekly timeframe for SPXHere we are, at a pivotal moment on the weekly timeframe for the S&P500.
The rally from the lows of March has allowed the GoNoGo Trend indicator to finally paint a neutral amber bar, rather than the purple/pink of a bearish market.
At this juncture, we wouldn’t say we are bullish yet on this time frame.
To make that case, we’d need to see the GoNoGo Oscillator break and stay above zero (showing positive momentum). So far, it has been riding the zero line having approached it from below and you can see the GoNoGo Squeeze with its climbing grid showing this in the lower panel. If the GoNoGo Oscillator breaks out of the squeeze with positive momentum, we’d finally see the blue bars of the “Go” trend in the price panel.
It's a "Go" for Bitcoin to test 10,000 againBitcoin has been ranging since the end of April. On the 4 hour chart, GoNoGo Trend has flagged a “Go” suggesting that it may try to test the higher end of the range soon.
The GoNoGo Oscillator shows increasing positive momentum and it is crossed above zero serval bars ago.
If this leads to continued price strength, look for 10000 to be tested once again.
10,000 has been strong resistance and a break of that is needed for the long term daily “Go” trend to continue.
GoNoGo Trend change for GE?Is the tide turning for GE?
For the first time since February 26th the GoNoGo Trend indicator is unable to paint a bearish color instead showing the amber neutral of “No Trend”.
This color change has happened on a gap and above prior highs.
The GoNoGo Oscillator hinted at this change as it broke above zero for the first time since mid February one bar earlier. This new positive momentum could lead to a “Go” in the price chart and a test of the prior highs around 8 dollars
GoNoGo Charts paints "NoGo" on EURBGP 4hr chartAfter a nice run that was highlighted by the blue “Go” bars, we see a change in trend on the 4hr chart.
A sideways consolidation broke our initial trend line and then the recent, shorter term support line was broken with an amber trend neutral bar.
The GoNoGo Trend is now painting pink bars, the first bars of a bearish trend.
This move came as price broke out of a volatility squeeze as you might expect. Look at the lower panel to see the climbing squeeze grid that reflected this stalling momentum.
The GoNoGo Oscillator is currently oversold, so we can expect a short rally back toward the trend line. However, the trend is now a “NoGo” in the short term.
GoNoGo shows ETHUSD is unable to trendWith Bitcoin falling back from 10,000 let’s take a look at Ethereum, one of the most traded cryptocurrencies. After rising since the last “Go” on April 16th, the coin has consolidated and traded sideways since the end of April.
During this time, we have noticed reduced volatility and reduced volume as we can see from the GoNoGo Squeeze and the Oscillator struggling with the zero line.
In the price chart, the current bar is amber, meaning that there is no trend identified. Remember, this often happens as a bridge between trends or in prolonged consolidation.
Look for the next move of the GoNoGo Oscillator to indicate the direction of Ethereum’s next move.
GoNoGo Charts sees bullish move for BW This is a great chart! Babcock and Wilcox Enterprises exploded into a “Go” trend on the 11th of May after having been hit really hard by the bear market we’ve been in.
Price consolidated in a pennant pattern after the initial move but looks to have broken out of the pattern to the upside.
It is encouraging that on the break, the GoNoGo Trend indicator has painted its first bright blue bar indicating the most bullish environment for the stock.
GoNoGo Charts sees Amazon looking to go higher As we noted in a previous idea, Amazon was ready for a move.
After the GoNoGo Squeeze highlighted reduced volatility we were expecting a move of the GoNoGo oscillator off the zero line.
Given that the trend was a “Go” we thought it was likely to move up.
Now that this has happened, we are testing resistance from prior highs and if we can stay above there may be room to run, especially as the GoNoGo Oscillator is not yet at extremes.
GoNoGo suggests Target is oversoldIs Target oversold? GoNoGo Trend is a “Go” but in all trends there are counter trend corrections. The red arrow above the last bar shows that the GoNoGo Oscillator was at an extreme and suggests that Target may move lower over the next few bars.
If this happens look for the GoNoGo Oscillator to bounce off zero and a green circle for a possible entry into the trend.
GoNoGo Trend change for Carnival Corp!Could it be? Could the trend be changing for Carnival Corp.?
After a precipitous crash due to the Coronavirus global pandemic, the cruise ship company has been floundering in a low volatility sideways correction since the end of March.
The GoNoGo Squeeze is really on, with the indicator climbing to its extreme a few times during this consolidation. Currently, the GoNoGo Oscillator is riding the zero line and for the first time since January we see a pale blue “Go” bar on the price chart.
Given the situation, I’d like to see the Squeeze end with the oscillator rallying strongly off zero to confirm the new “Go” we see in price.
Bitcoin to keep trying for 10,000 and above - GoNoGo ChartsThere really is a great deal of overhead resistance on the Bitcoin chart. Again turned away from around 10,000 price action has stalled causing the GoNoGo Trend to paint the weaker pale blue bars. The GoNoGo Oscillator reflects this cooling momentum as it has once again dropped to the zero line.
However, the GoNoGo Trend is still a "Go" and we are looking to see if the crypto can find support once more at the zero line. It should, and then we could expect price to push back up to 10,000 for another attempt to break above that level.
If zero doesn’t hold we could see price moving down and potentially a color change in the GoNoGo Trend indicator.
Amazon poised for a move - GoNoGo ChartsThe giant online retailer appears ready for a move. The GoNoGo Trend is a “Go” but it is currently weakening.
The GoNoGo Oscillator is at zero and looking to find support. The Squeeze is on and has been for several bars!
We need to wait for price to tell us which way it is going on this one. While the trend is up and the oscillator is finding support at the zero line, there are also reasons to be cautious.
First, there is bearish divergence where price is making higher highs and yet the GoNoGo Osicillator is making lower highs (grey downward sloping trend line in the lower panel. Secondly, price has made what appears to be a diamond formation which is a broadening pattern followed by a triangle. While the break from this pattern can be in either direction, it is a little more likely to go back where it came from!
Either way, we’d wait for the squeeze to be over and the oscillator to move away from zero.
GoNoGo Charts suggest US10 yields will retest March lowsThe stock market rally has faltered and perhaps with it is a decline in investor confidence. The reality of economic woes perhaps are sinking in.
When confidence falls, investors buy safe assets and the 10Y treasury yield is important to look at. As more investors start to buy this asset to protect their investment, price will go up and yield will go down.
During the so called corona rally we initially saw a bump in yields but this was not sustained as yields fell back and have been stuck in a consolidation pattern for just over a month.
The drop in volatility has been identified by the GoNoGo Squeeze as it climbed several times during this period.
The last price bar repainted in bearish purple and flagged a “NoGo”. If the move that follows the GoNoGo Squeeze is negative look for yields to retest the lows of March. Not a good sign for the stock market.