Google (Alphabet)
GOOG: Go long at market open...I'm initiating a position in $GOOG at market open tomorrow. There was some kind of glitch, and the chart looks really funny, so I decided to post it for posterity. The folks at Zerohedge were gloating, looking at the stocks limit down after this glitch, it's actually just that, and in fact, trades that might have taken place were reversed as far as I know.
Either way, price hit support -before charts got messed up- so it's a really reasonable place to enter a 10% long position in $GOOG once more.
For reference, this is the way the chart looked on close:
Happy Independence Day to all Americans, and remember to go long burgers... www.zerohedge.com
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Mister Google, is Donw now But,The giant is in trouble now already stumbled on his way over the 1000 points, but remember that while he stumbled and fell on the road, as every giant is powerful and can reincorporate again and continue on the road walking and recovered in the ;)
Possible GOOG (Google/Alphabet) Short OpportunityLet the price start to fall before shorting. I will enter on a retest of 900/Retracement somewhere.
These gaps do not hold!
Resisting the Temptation of GOOGL StockAlphabet's eight and a half years old uptrend appears to be nearing its end. The bears might drag the stock to $700 from now on.
The Up Trend is ToppingI prefer using log scale for high flying stocks. You can clearly tell Googl upward momentum is abating. We all know 250 advertisers dropped adds on youtube due to offensive content. Now googl is working on the issue but once you loose advertising you also loose pricing power. Getting advertisers back will likely come at a discount cost. Google faces lower add revenue will they seek to fix this issue.
We're Going Long GOOG For A BargainAlphabet's (GOOG) stock has been trending upward for quite awhile, and we've
been keeping a close eye on it. We've raised our risk level on most of the
massively expensive tech stocks due to our views on the overinflated prices
from the "Trump Trade" since the election. Already, our speculation of the
market correction seems to be in-effect dependent on the next few days'
price action with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
But in the meantime, we think the short term outlook for Google is bullish,
and this evinced itself when it continued its uptrend with the break of the
last up-fractal at $836.26 on Friday, March 9th. Although the option
liquidity is not our most favorite spread width, we saw a recent catalyst
occur as well with the introduction of Gmail money which will likely crush
the likes of Venmo and potentially Paypal.
Not to mention, Alphabet's subsidiary Waymo filed suit against Uber for stealing trade secrets through one of Uber's recently acquired autonomous car companies "Otto". After reading the details of what the suit entails, it revolves around a former Google employee stealing designs of proprietary LIDAR technology and using it for his autonomous truck startup (which Uber acquired). The lawsuit will likely be a hefty sum, and due to the somewhat "smoking gun" Alphabet has from email traffic showing the design in question, the odds favor Alphabet in winning the proprietary suit down the road.
From a fundamental standpoint, the Google news about the Gmail money concept will likely drive upward sentiment to execute a further uptrend following strategy. So how are we getting this at a discount?
Here's the trade:
Buy 3x Puts; 7 Apr 17 Exp; $845 Strike $10.04
Sell 6x Puts; 7 Apr 17; $850 Strike $12.37
Buy 3x Puts; 7 Apr 17; $852.50 Strike $13.85
Max Risk: $495.00
Max Sweet-Spot Reward: ~$855.00
Max Reward Passed $852.50 Strike: $255.00
Our trailing stop will follow our middle moving average currently at $825.14
and moving upward.
Why The Market Is Due to Crash in 2017 or 2018Those who do not learn from history are bound to repeat it. To us, 2017 is starting to look more and more like 1999-2001, with some B.S. from 2007 sprinkled in. Our evidence to support the argument is pretty substantial, but the only weakness lies in how long the music can continue to play. We don’t like to make predictions of stocks or market direction in-general, but when something smells like a turd, it’s usually a turd.
Our first point: Margin debt amounts are higher than they’ve ever been in history. Okay, so what’s the trigger? A short term consolidation. As in musical chairs, those buying into the market while it’s running are going to come out on the plus side, and man has it run since December. But what happens when news such as the potential for hiccups in conservative policy cause a halt to the speculative run that’s happened while Trump has been in office? The music stops. As a retail investor and trader, I can account personally for this, as margin is needed for your average investor who makes <$100,000 per year to buy into index funds like SPY when they’re over $200 per share. Even more so, who wouldn’t want to leverage themselves to buy into a higher risk equity or stock that has been in a >40% run, since December? The stock market is a rich man’s/woman’s game, and margin leverage is needed in order for traders to attempt to even make a dent in their account growth. When investment banks, commercials, news, or whatever are pitching “growth” securities, some of which trade at a price multiples times their revenue (ahem, Amazon (AMZN)), then the frenzy continues with financing until the music eventually stops. Then the proverbial #$#@ hits the fan.
Those who have bought on margin wind up closing their positions out of fear of losing more than they can afford, or worse, they wake up only to receive the margin call, not including their interest payments on the short term loan. Once that 2-3 day market consolidation happens, the market will likely tank back to where it was at least in December, if not further over the course of about a month due to fear.
Our second point: household debt has increased substantially, specifically with student loans and auto loans since 2007 and 2008 according to the Fed. Since the irresponsible banking sector’s sub-prime mortgage issuance up until the 2007 crisis, regulations forced the banks to seek other forms of interest revenue. Enter student loans and car loans. There’s a reason why car loan terms have increased from 4 years to almost 7 or 8 years since the mid-2000s. It’s easy money, and it’s tempting for the unassuming car buyer to want their monthly payment to be lower, not knowing they end up underwater at the end of the loan (not to mention the car likely being in terrible condition by the end of the 7 years). Not only are the banks responsible for this “free money” but also the auto companies themselves by allowing their lending arms to generate interest payments to their receivables as a hedge against lower sales figures.
As for student loans, it’s all in the numbers. The new President’s plan is a cap at 12.5% (an increase in 2.5%) of the borrower’s income, with debt forgiveness in 15 years with full payments. An average student loan is ~$10,000/year (in state) and ~$23,000/year (out of state). That’s $40,000 at a bare minimum at the end of the student’s enrollment. The average salary coming straight out of undergraduate programs is $50,000 a year, capped at $70,000-$80,000 for most jobs if the individual doesn’t have a Masters.
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$GOOG in short term Cup and Handle? Not sure and want confirmation. Would this be considered a cupandhandle entering a gapfill?
Divergence and shooting star monthly formationEarnings just came out and GOOG will gap down tomorrow. With only a few days left in the month, there is a good chance of an inverted hammer/pin bar on the monthly and a possible set up for an evening star/shooting star reversal pattern in Feb.
Break below 798 will confirm. Invalidate if today's high is broken to upside.
TP 700
Google - Sell this Bat pattern?Hey guys, google or Alphabet is gonna report their earnings next week.
With the S&P at a critical resistance, and a bearish bat(blue) on the daily chart of google, I expect a less than stellar earnings report from them.
If you decide to go short, do it before Jan 25th around current market price with your stop loss around 825.
Hopefully, a bad earnings report can kick start a correction for google back to 680 where Harmonic traders can go long on a bat pattern.
I do not try to predict news, I only trade based on Harmonic patterns and vanilla support and resistance.
If the earnings report comes out fantastic, price will breakout to the upside and this pattern will fail and hit your stop loss.
I will then continue to buy upon any retracement to this resistance turn support zone at 815.
More upside for GOOGBoth technical and fundamental analysis indicate a bullish stance on GOOG.
GOOG is trading above 20 and 60 MA. Cup and handle is forming. Let's see if it breaks $800.
And fundamentally both revenue and earnings growth continue to be strong.
