ALPHABET: GOOG Nature of the BeastALPHABET: GOOG
Alphabet has two habits: it makes significant double tops
quite often (3 times in this 2 year bull run so far) and when it
creates a gap at earnings season it usually comes back to fill
that same gap around 4-5 months later - and when does this it
tends to do it twice, creating double bottoms as well as
double tops. This is the one stock amonst the FAANGs that
displays this kind of repeat behaviour so clearly, with one
glaring exception, shown at the blue arrow. The biggest
correction in the run is 15% in early 2016. Taking 15% off the
highs = 1000. And 20% is 940, which coincides with fixed
support at 942 and the lower supporting parallel. Perhaps in a
panic it may spike this low but looking at past behaviour it
should find support again at 987 by the close if it does fall this
far first. Major suppoort exists at 904-900. It will take a close
below here to derail this train.
Google (Alphabet)
ALPHABET: GOOG Volatility = OpportunityAlphabet: GOOG Curious Case of the Unfilled Gap
Normally when Google beats earnings expectaions it tends to gap up and away for a couple of months or more and then,
eventually, momentum begins to wane and it comes back off to fill the gap. It's been that way for so many quarters now
and every gap has always been filled in the end - and notice when it does get filled that moment (that day, not minute as
with Bitcoin) presents the best buying opportunity you will find...every time....because it tells you in advance where the
low should be. Helpful if you're looking to build a long position in any FANG. Works every time. Except once. That red arrow
at 900 shows the one large gap here into new high ground that has never been filled. Friday's price action has led to a second
test of the last gap created during last earnings season. For those with a technical interest there is also a fabulous island
reversal showing at the very top of the rally with a tiny gap created to left of the red arrrow at 1160 followed by the
massive fracture which begins from the same level. The ensuing bear rampage takes price all the way back to that
same gap zone before it bounces again. Mind the Gaps. They are very interesting from a technical perspective and create
some great short term trading opportunities on the rare occasions when a stock like GOOG runs into a consolidation phase.
Having bounced from the gap zone GOOG has rallied to test the underside of the structure to its left at 1046-1050 and
come to a temporary halt at 1037. Nasdaq is likely to remain volatile next week, the environment we need to go out scalping
Maybe Goog can still make a getaway from the gap zone, just as it has always done in the recent past (bar1) - but if so it
still looks like it will need a retest to prove it. Whilst unable to move and hold up above 1046-1050 it's likely to retest
996-987 again. And if at any point on Monday 987 gives way it can be shorted back to 961. Then if this level in turn fails it
can be shortred a second (or third) time to 942 and most likely back to the lower parallels where it becomes a buy
again if struck with stops below for those who may have been waiting to buy Alphabet for the longer term. A 20% decline
would create a target at 948 and 21% at 937.
On the upside Goog has to move above 1050 and then hold up at 1037 on any retest to trigger a long but only if it holds up
well at 1037 and then moves up through 1050 with some volume behind it - then it can be followed up to 1080 but run
a stop up underneath it quite tight just in case it fails. The next near term long shot from here triggers from 1085 to 1120
and then from 1125 to the top of the gap at 1159.
As to the case of the unfilled gap...to fill the missing gap the parallel will have to be broken. Google likes to fill big gaps.
It's in its nature. It could happen eventually and if it breaks below 987 come Mondaythat will be the first signal that either
the parallel or the gap itself will become the final low. More as this move develops.
Market Pullback in Coming, Be Careful!If any of you guys have seen my last post about the NASDAQ, I showed a couple retractments I thought should make us all very weary. Well, I'm here to share another interesting piece.
It's obvious the normal graph of the NASDAQ has no long term support or resistance. It's impossible, too much compounding going on. However, using the log feature in order to limit compounding, We see a BEAUTIFUL channel that has formed within the NASDAQ.
This has nothing to do with Trump or Taxes, this was a 100% EXPECTED move. However, it is obvious the move has run it's course for now. Obviously the channel is still up, so like I said in my original post, we're still in a bullish market. Expect a pullback though, and use this to help optimize profits.
Speaking of which, $AAPL earnings failure will help confirm this top, and I think by now the news obviously points to an earnings failure.
Optimize and be smart!!!!
DR PEPPER REVISITED (DPS BUY)One of my very first pairs I posted- REVISISTED!
Here is a new plan, as I think now (and at a couple other lower prices) DPS is a decent medium term buy- meaning it's not going to be a day trade, but you're not going to be holding on to it for years.
Fundamentals: In this tricky market we have had towards the end of last week and in to this week, TECH stocks (FB, NFLX, APPL, AMZN, GOOG, NVDA, AMD, TSLA) have been all taking a beating, and stocks like DPS are being dragged with it. However, if this trend continues, people will likely SWITCH from riskier, more volatile stocks and go back in to the fundamentals such as food and beverage, utilities, energy, what have you. DPS has NO reason to keep going down, the company is the exact same company it was at >95$ a share.
Anyways, enough of the fundamentals. I'm putting in my buys and WILL UPDATE THIS CHART AS TIME GOES ON AS TO WHEN TO TAKE PROFITS! So if you're joining the ride, MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW ME OR BOOKMARK THIS CHART.
GOOG - Cautious Buy - Played via Selling Put Credit Spread GOOG has closed upwards of $1,054, forming a nice bullish candlestick!
So, despite the great candlestick formation, there are some worrisome signs brewing in the Bond & Gold Markets, as well as in the Volatility Index.
This means that if investors start heading towards safe havens like these, the stock market should take a pause and/or pull back.
As a result, the way I decided to play this bullish to neutral stance of mine on GOOG, is by selling the $1,012.5 / $1,010 Dec. 15 Put Credit Spread (18 Days out) for $0.27 credit, or $27 per contract ($2,700 for a 100 lot). This means that based on the ThinkorSwim platform, this is a Delta 15 put spread, which simply implies that the options market assigns JUST a 15% chance that this option spread will be ITM (In The Money) by its expiration. In simple terms, it is highly unlikely that we will get our options assigned to us.
To summarize, being long GOOG by selling this put spread, we stand to make more than 10% Return On Our Risked Amount in 18 Days and having an 85% chance that we will be right doing so! Pretty good odds for a really good return, in a short period of time! This way, we are allowing GOOG to drop MORE THAN $30 from its current levels and STILL be able to keep ALL of our premium.
Close your position when GOOG hits $1,080 (Profit Target), or Exit the trade, if the spread increases to $0.40 (Stop Loss), for a 2R.
Happy Trading
Lindosskier
Alphabet, price on resistance analysisThe price is on a short-term resistance with low bullish volume. The stock may retest the resistance and eventually create another pullback.
The informations and the strategies discussed are NOT recommendation to buy, sell or trade any securities. They are strictly for educational and illustrative purposes.
Alphabet, sideways channel & price on trendline analysisThe stock is consolidating in a sideways channel after a strong bullish movement. Now the price is on the mid-term bullish trendline. If the price continues higher and breaks the resistance level (987.00), the minimum target is around 1065.00. If the price breaks the trendline and the support it may start a strong bearish movement. The breakout must be confirmed by very high volume to avoid fakeouts or pullbacks.
The informations and the strategies discussed are NOT recommendation to buy, sell or trade any securities. They are strictly for educational and illustrative purposes.