Trouble in paradise Google is headed back down after getting close to the all time high. After thing past the 15 min. Looks good for a short. You can see with the arrows that this is over priced and headed back down to the 798 level. This is a multi-day trade set up. I don't see this catching on and becoming the floor so get in while you can.
Google (Alphabet)
FANGs - Wow. A lot goin on here.Busy chart, so bare with me. Bold call, but the more I look at the FANGs on a combined chart, the more I see an (incomplete) bump and run reversal (BARR) in blue.
A head and shoulders is present within a broadening formation in white, that gives room for the H&S to complete. Support in green, resistance in red.
Down.
TIME TO SEARCH in GOOGLEGOOGLE IS VERY STRONG, SO ANYBODY WANTS TO SHORT EVEN WITH OPTIONS MIGHT NEED TO HAVE IRON HEART AND GOD GIVEN TIME TO SEE THE DECAY OF THIS STOCK. BUT WHEN IT WILL FALL; IT MAY FALL HARDER BUT YOU NEED TO BE ABLE TO SEE THAT IT IS COMING AND IT MAY NOT HAPPEN ANYTIME SOON, SO HAVE patience. If it touches red line then probably good time to go short but it's monthly chart so you need to look in daily chart or weekly chart to pinpoint those zones as this stock is very volatile so you need to have iron fest. Green lines r historical support line so safe to buy but for short term unless it touches the green degree 1 line in relation to FIBONACCI.
Bulls getting bitten by the FANG tradeAn average of the FANG stocks tells an interesting story and serves nicely as a bellwether of market sentiment and investor's appetite for speculation. These stocks on average are trading very high price relative to forward earnings. Recent selling action suggest the market is beginning to doubt that these high flying stocks can live up to the expectations for future growth.
Technically it failed this month to reach the previous highs of last year. It's broken the lower trend line and rapidly approaching the 200 day average.
From here another 5% dropto the lower trend line seems likely
Exit from the short google call given today morning.
Dear Viewers,
The google movement to the downside happened as expected. But the price moved too quickly and I was unable to ask my viewers to exit at the 688.57 level. That is the level we were supposed to close the trade at. I apologize for the delay in posting the exit call chart.
Nevertheless, the price is still at 694.68 which is below the 697.50 at which we took the short. Exit the call.
I will make it a point to be more quick to post updates.
Thank you.
BUY GOOGLE @$711 - LOWER VOLS, VOLU & LOWS; HIGHER CORRS & HIGHSGoogle C-Class shares i am bullish over the 6-12m, hence I am buying any 5-10% pull backs from highs.
Goog has been moving sideways but i think it has just started a cycle higher, in which it is about to make a higher low at 710-15 before moving up again to 750+
715-750 is a 5% move hence i am interested in buying at this price with reward skewed something 1.5:1 with risk.
Coming into earnings, Goog has to make at least one bull run to highs at 770 and i believe this will be the set up for the run for several reasons:
1. since april earnings lows at 687 goog has moved in an upward trend of 688-722-700-736, the next cycle i approximate to be down to 710-3 (volume traded price) then up to 750+ (previous support turned resistance).
Also the Linear regression for the on graph prices is $723, so prices below this are below this cycles average - encouraging mean reversion upwards.
2. Goog volatility correlation is in its negative cycle - the last bull cycle to 768 began with a turn from positive to negative price-volatility correlation change.
- Plus goog's volatility is at yearly lows with VXGO at 17.. Low vols is something that imo is vital for any sustained bull run, as logically, more people want to own a stock that has a greater "normalised" return and risk profile.
3. Average Volume divergence - google volume is trading below its 6 month average, lower volume characterises goog's bull runs typically, as shown in the previous bull run. Since it signifies there are fewer structural sellers that are prepared to sell the stock, thus volume drops and the price is bid up until sell side liquidity is increased sufficiently to meet a new, higher, equilibrium price.
4. *please see last 3 price bars* - these bars have been highlighted as having a "topside range skew". What is inferred by this is that the candle has more activity at the higher prices e.g. the candle traded at its highs and open more than its close and low - thus this is a bullish signal as the open high and close data stayed in the upper percentiles of the candle.
- Even the first candle in question (the first bear candle), opened and closed at apprx the median price.. this is unusual. the first bear candle after a strong bullish run, usually shows heavy open-close downside skew e.g. the price opens and then closes close to the lows (rather than in the middle of prices traded) - indicating that time period closed with the price being driven/held at the lowest possibility.
If we were to see the opposite e.g. the candles closing on the lows, this would be bearish and indicate the price is wanting to push lower, since there was no difference between the low and close.
Fundamentally i am also long google, hence why i like buying any decent pull backs - especially when they have a strong set up.
LOWER VOL, VOLU AND LOWS. HIGHER CORRS AND HIGHS (GOOG BUY @711)Google C-Class shares i am bullish over the 6-12m, hence I am buying any 5-10% pull backs from highs.
Goog has been moving sideways but i think it has just started a cycle higher, in which it is about to make a higher low at 715 before moving up again to 750+
715-750 is a 5% move hence i am interesting in buying at this price with reward skewed something 1.5:1 with risk.
Coming into earnings, Goog has to make at least one bull run to highs at 770 and i believe this will be the set up for the run for several reasons:
1. since april earnings lows at 687 goog has moved in an upward trend of 688-722-700-736, the next cycle i approximate to be down to 710-3 (volume traded price) then up to 750+ (previous support turned resistance).
Also the Linear regression for the on graph prices is $723, so prices below this are below this cycles average - encouraging mean reversion upwards.
2. Goog volatility correlation is in its negative cycle - the last bull cycle to 768 began with a turn from positive to negative price-volatility correlation change.
- Plus goog's volatility is at yearly lows. Low vols is something that imo is vital for any sustained bull run, as logically, more people want to own a stock that has a greater "normalised" return and risk profile.
3. Volume average divergence - google volume is trading below its 6 month average, lower volume characterises goog's bull runs typically. Since it signifies there are fewer structural sellers that are prepared to sell the stock, thus volume drops and the price is bid up until sell side liquidity is increased sufficiently to meet an equilibrium price.
4. *please see last 3 price bars* - these bars have been highlighted as having a "topside range skew". What is inferred by this is that the candle has more activity at the higher prices e.g. the candle traded at its highs and open more than its close and low - thus this is a bullish signal as the open high and close data stayed in the upper percentiles of the candle.
- Even the first candle in question (the first bear candle), opened and closed at apprx the median price.. this is unusual. the first bear candle after a strong bullish run, usually shows heavy open-close downside skew e.g. the price opens and then closes close to the lows (rather than in the middle of prices traded) - indicating that time period closed with the price being driven/held at the lowest possibility.
If we were to see the opposite e.g. the candles closing on the lows, this would be bearish and indicate the price is wanting to push lower, since there was no difference between the low and close.
Fundamentally i am also long google anyway, hence why i liike buying 5-10% pull backs.
(D) Large trading range of 100 handles since mid October.Recently the trading range has narrowed between (700,750) with some resistance from 750 (or P pivot). Since then EMA50 has been nearly flat slope; hence sideways. Also, the difference of EMA50 and EMA200 has been decreasing with EMA50's slope marginally bearish.
If bearish momentum continues, a support retest of 700 is in range. Should 700 fail and OBV fails to hold it's EMA50(OBV), then 680 and 650 are not far below. Obey your rules.
Triple top pattern with broken line that is about to be tested Alphabet will have its earnings this week.
$GOOG chart has formed a bearish setup that can be used if you think $GOOG is heading down after earnings.
1. triple top
2. Daily resistance zone
3. Broken uptrend line about to be tested (resistance now)
4. 78.6, 88.6 Fibs are considered reversal levels.
Considering the low volume rally and the strong resistance, it is an interesting bearish setup however earnings can boost this stock above 800$ so be careful if you choose to trade it.
Tomer Jakov, The MarkeZone (@themarketzone on Twitter)
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NEXT WEEK'S EARNINGS: NFLX, YHOO, GOOG, OTHERSNext week brings in a bevvy of earnings plays, but not all are worth of a premium selling, implied volatility contraction play.
These are the best among the offerings currently to play either via short strangle or iron condor, although others could naturally come to the forefront if implied volatility increases dramatically immediately before earnings.
NFLX: implied volatility rank/percentile: 48; implied volatility: 57. Ordinarily, I look to enter these plays when the implied volatility percentile is greater than 70% and the implied volatility is greater than 50%, so I'd like to see vol a bit higher here. Announces earnings on Monday after market close, so look to put on a play shortly before the end of the NY session. Preliminarily, a 78% POP April 29th 94.5/130 short strangle is offering a $185 credit/contract, but it could also be played via iron condor for a smaller, although not insubstantial credit.
YHOO: implied volatility rank/percentile: 56; implied volatility: 42. The vol metrics aren't great here, but worth a watch for a small play. Announces earnings on Tuesday after market close. Preliminarily, a 72% POP April 29th 33.5/39.5 short strangle goes for $71/contract.
GOOG: implied volatility rank/percentile: 45; implied volatility: 29. Another one to watch, but the vol metrics aren't really there right now. Announces earnings on Thursday after market close. Preliminarily, a 76% POP April 29th 700/820 short strangle will bring in $788/contract, but due to the size of the underlying, I'd probably go iron condor here. The other drawback of the underlying is poor liquidity, so look for a fill of any setup up somewhat above the mid price.
Naturally, there are others that may pop at the last minute, so it's a good idea to watch all of them as their earnings come up one by one, keeping in what to look for in good earnings plays (See Posts Below).
3 Days and price still around 61.8%In the points A, B and C we see highest daily volumes. As we can see price has been dancing around $741 price level and didn't go in either direction. It seems like big players are accumulating their short position. I suggest to put SELL STOP order at $738.5, with SL = $745 and close position piece by piece at $727 (+1.89%), at $720 (+2.83%), at $711 (+4.05%), at $704(+5%).
waiting for GOOG price spike then will hit resistance perfectlyBefore GOOG can be shorted, wait for a pretty big price spike, since this is what happened the last 2 times this RSI resistance line was met. Also look for a pretty steep angle and acceleration on the RSI, since this is also happened during the last 2 ideal shorts in late 2015 and Feb 2016. Luckily I was able to short the Feb 2016 drop by using this signal. I hope to get the next short. I will be shorting in the next several days. More risky is to short now, to be safer, wait for the price and RSI acceleration.