Alphabet / Google (GOOGL) - DCF Model - Intrinsic ValueThis valuation analysis is based on a base case scenario DCF model.
Google DCF Model Assumptions:
Tax Rate = 16.2%
Discount Rate = 8.4%
Perpetual Growth Rate = 2.0%
EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x
Transaction Date = 05/02/2022
Fiscal Year End = 31/12/2022
Current Price = 2,865.86
Shares Outstanding = 662
Debt = 26,206
Cash = 20,945
Capex = 24,640
Base Case Scenario:
In addition to the above assumptions, the below DCF model is based on our base case scenario, which assumes a revenue growth over the next five years of 18%, 16%, 14%, 13%, 12%. These revenue growth assumptions are slightly below the analysts' forecasts at the time of analysis.
DCF (5Y) EBITDA EXIT MODEL:
Terminal Value
Final Forecast EBITDA (m) = $196,262
EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x
TERMINAL VALUE (m) = $2,453,270
Intrinsic Value:
Enterprise Value (m) = $1,986,779
Plus: Cash (m) = $20,945
Less: Debt (m) = $26,206
Equity Value (m) = $1,981,518
EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $2,992.69
DCF (5Y) GROWTH EXIT MODEL:
Terminal Value
Final Forecast FCFf (m) = $119,494
Perpetual Growth Rate = 2.0%
TERMINAL VALUE (m) = $1,902,831
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value (m) = $1,616,256
Plus: Cash (m) = $20,945
Less: Debt (m) = $26,206
Equity Value (m) = 1,610,995
EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $2,433.09
DISCLAIMER:
All information and analysis are based on the author's views, opinions, and assumptions at the time of writing. Bull Headed Bear makes no guarantees of the information's reliability and accuracy. The information is to be used for entertainment and informative purposes only. Bull Headed Bear and its authors reserve the right to change their views, opinions and assumptions due to many influencing factors.
Any actions taken based on this information is strictly at your own risk. All investments carry a risk of loss, and you could lose all your money. Consider seeking professional advice from a financial advisor. Bull Headed Bear and its authors will not be liable for any losses or damages from the information here or its website.
DISCLOSURE:
I/we have open long positions in GOOGL. We do not intend on altering this position in the coming weeks.
NASDAQ:GOOGL
GOOGL
GOOGLE STOCK MID TERM ANALYSISGOOGLE, just like virtually every other tech stock has had an outrageous run in 2020-2021, but is showing increased signs of weakness. Trend line is broken on both the weekly and monthly time frames, and technical indicators show bearish divergences across the board. In addition, growing fears of a Russian invasion in Ukraine don't make matters any better. Going short, this is another no brainer to me.
TP 1: $2200
TP 2: $1700
GOOGL: You must watch this KEY POINT closely!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how GOOGL is doing today!
In the 1h chart, it is a clear bear trend, as it is doing lower highs/lows. However, we have a key point to watch from here: The dashed line at $ 2,754.
This line was a previous resistance before the Monster Gap after earnings, and when GOOGL lost its strength, it worked as a support for the price. This movement follows the Principle of Polarity in Technical Analysis. Yesterday this line was our resistance again, and this is why this is the most important key point to watch.
Only by breaking this line, we would see GOOGL turning bullish again. What’s even more curious, is that when we look at the daily chart, we see two more resistances at the same price of the dashed line in the 1h chart:
Coincidence or not, the 50% retracement, and the 21 ema are both near the $ 2,754 area, making it a powerful resistance, indeed.
As long as GOOGL remains under this key point, nothing new will happen. However, if it does break it, we might see the end of this bearish sentiment on GOOGL, and possibly even a buy sign.
I’ll watch GOOGL closely from now on, and I’ll keep you guys updated on it. So, remember to follow me to not miss any of my future analyses.
Google (GOOGL) |The best area for correction♻️Hello traders, Google in daily timeframe , this analysis has been prepared in daily timeframe but has been published for a better view in 2 day timeframe.
The waves that we counted are the main waves 1 and 2 and the rest of the waves are related to the microwaves of the main wave 3.
From these microwaves, waves 1 and 2 are over and now we are inside wave 3.
Wave 3 itself forms Wave 4 at a lower level.
This wave has 4 triangular patterns, which is in its last wave, ie wave e, which has the ability to return from the same range and can even continue this downward movement up to Fibo 0.5.
To confirm further movement, it is necessary to break the current range (price 2660) downwards.
🙏If you have an idea that helps me provide a better analysis, I will be happy to write in the comments🙏
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
"OK Google, what is patience?"Since the pop on earnings and the split news I have been watching for a good pullback on Google NASDAQ:GOOG . I am operating under the thesis that the pre-split price action will signal a rally as in other past tech stocks. This rally may take a while because the July 15th split date is relatively far out. For the last several days I have been waiting for the price to come to the 2775 level it must hold to remain bullish to retest and break the high.
FAANG Dead? The NEW Tech Stock Leaders!With the disasterous earnings of Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX and Facebook NASDAQ:FB this past month it may be time to call for a new acronym of the still bullish and strong Tech Stock leaders of the market: Micosoft NASDAQ:MSFT - Apple NASDAQ:AAPL - Google NASDAQ:GOOG - Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN
Google (GOOGL) | The last target to climb🔥Hello traders, Google in daily timeframe , this analysis has been prepared in daily timeframe but has been published for a better view in 2 day timeframe.
The waves that we counted are the main waves 1 and 2 and the rest of the waves are related to the microwaves of the main wave 3.
From these microwaves, waves 1 and 2 are over and now we are inside wave 3.
Wave 3 itself forms Wave 4 at a lower level.
According to its current structure, this wave 4 has formed a complex pattern, ie double zigzag, and now the ascent is related to wave 5 from wave 3 to wave 3, and if it is confirmed that it will make another ascent, otherwise it is still inside wave 4 and the structure Wave 4 is a triangular structure that requires a half of the previous wave and a maximum of up to 0.50 Fibonacci to complete the minimum drop.
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
IS GOOGLE READY TO RECOVER FROM ITS CRASH ?I think that google is long for the moment, the stock could still crash again and go lower but then recover again, we can see that google is a very stable stock and his movements are perturbed by things going in the world these days
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you enjoyed this post and agree with me, a like and a sub would be very nice : )
If you have any other ideas or simply disagree, manifest yourself in the comments ⬇️⬇️⬇️
Stay updated for more content
Have a nice Day : ) Bye!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOGL post earnings and stock split announcementAAPL and TSLA did a stock split in 2020. So I use those to get an idea of what GOOGL can do after it's announcement. AAPL from announcement to stock split went up about 35%, and TSLA went up 80%. I don't know how much GOOGL will go up but I am going to buy bull call verticals for the next several weeks.
GOOG Alphabet Inc. 20-to-1 Stock SplitRuth Porat, Alphabet CFO: “The reason for the split is it makes our shares more accessible”
Alphabet Inc . 20-to-1 Stock Split on July 15 could lead to Alphabet’s listing on the Dow Jones Industrial Average , the indexs that holds 30 blue-chip companies.
And you all know how appealing were Apple , Tesla and Nvidia for retail investors after the stock splits!
My short term price target is the all time high, $3037.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
GOOGLE Stock Split - Big opportunity!Today on earnings NASDAQ:GOOG announced an upcoming 20 to 1 stock split. This is a major news event with a history we can look back on. There are three instances from the last two years (TSLA, AAPL, NVDA) where tech stocks announced splits and then proceeded to FOMO rally. Trade with proper risk controls but look for opportunity NOW in Google!
I talked about this trade last year with Nvidia when that stock did a split. It is the same trade. Check link below:
Alphabet (NASDAQ: $GOOG) Drops Stock Split + Strong Earnings!🤓Alphabet Inc. provides online advertising services in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America. The company offers performance and brand advertising services. It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments. The Google Services segment provides products and services, such as ads, Android, Chrome, hardware, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube, as well as technical infrastructure and digital content. The Google Cloud segment offers infrastructure and data analytics platforms, collaboration tools, and other services for enterprise customers. The Other Bets segment sells internet and TV services, as well as licensing and research and development services. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.
Google Pre-Stock SplitWith Google (Alphabet) announcing a 20-1 stock split it is not shocking to see Google back up at $2,900. However, looking at Tesla's stock trend prior to their stock split, my guess is that Google will hold around $2,900 to $3,100 for next 15 days. Google stock split will push Google back in front as the highest market cap company listed on the NASDAQ, yes ahead of Apple 3 trillion dollar market cap (or whatever it is at today). It is time to to move forward and see a nice bullish run heading into February and on into March.
GOOGL - Bounced off the demand zoneKey highlights:
1. Bounced off H4 demand
2. Trying to reclaim 200MA cluster
3. Volume climax
4. Bounced off previous swing level
5. Formed a bullish engulfing on daily
6. RSI oversold on daily and is curving back upwards.
Disclaimer : This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers!
Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick)
Google (GOOGL) | The best point to buy🔥Hello traders, Google in daily timeframe , this analysis has been prepared in daily timeframe but has been published for a better view in 2 day timeframe.
In the wave count we had, the first wave 1 and 2 were formed, and now we are inside the wave of the main 3 wave.
From this wave, waves 1 and 2 are formed and wave 3 of wave 3 is being formed.
This wave 3 is inside its wave 4 wave and the wave 4 pattern is not clear, but the probability we give is in its last wave wave and we expect it to climb to Fibo 2.27 after breaking the trend line and then a downward movement will be formed for wave 4 from wave 3. .
The basis of the ascent for us will be the breaking of the green circle and the trend line. Also, this ascent can be part of the correction, and it should be said that another descent to the previous price floor will probably take place before this ascent.
🙏If you have an idea that helps me provide a better analysis, I will be happy to write in the comments🙏
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️