GOOGL
Long TWTR into Earnings, Using Pull back to Add PositionsTWTR is likely to report a somewhat mixed quarter but monetization is likely to be good and a few new strategies could also excite investors.
Stock is clearly on an uptrend and being bought on any dips. The company for all its misgivings remains one of the most valuable properties of social media yet remains undervalued compared to most other tech majors. It is also the platform that has the most potential for incremental improvement.
The plan is to do PCS and long shares and sell ATM calls, a somewhat conservative strategy for being bullish.
Elliott Wave View: Alphabet (GOOGL) Impulsive Rally IncompleteShort Term Elliott Wave view in Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL) suggests the rally from December 21,2020 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from December 21 low, wave 1 ended at 1788.57 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 1696.10. Wave 3 higher remains in progress as another 5 waves of lesser degree. Up from wave 2 low at 1696.10, wave ((i)) ended at 1801 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 1711.65. Stock then resumed higher in wave ((iiii)) towards 1932.08 and wave ((iv)) pullback is proposed complete at 1859.16.
The stock still needs to break above wave ((iii)) at 1932.08 to avoid a double correction in wave ((iv)). Near term, while pullback stays above wave ((iv)) low at 1859.16, and more importantly above 1711.65, expect the stock to resume higher. If the stock breaks below 1859.16, then it’s doing a double three (w)-(y)-(y) and should find support at the next extreme area in 7 swing. As far as wave ((ii)) pivot low on January 16 at 1711.65 remains intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside.
NASDAQ Macro View#NASDAQ Macro View: History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes. Here we are in the last phase of the bull market, the blow off top. The gains seeing during this phase are unrealistic and a greed trap to get as many people in the market as possible at the top. The ultimate formula being a huge wave of new retail investors that aren't super educated in markets and unprecedented amounts of leverage.
With my predicted deflationary bust later this year, into 2022, I am seeing a potential drop of 80% in the index from the top. This would back test a major level of resistance from the dot com bubble and 2016.
If you have bought in the last few years and don't plan on taking profit along this phase, there is a high chance you will either sell at a major loss when your loss can't be managed anymore or you will be bag holding for a decade+ waiting to BREAK EVEN.
Big tech has pretty much stayed dormant since September and now appears to be breaking out to drive the indices higher for this last vertical leg. Highly advised to take profits and raise stop losses along the way.
GOOGL 1892: Reaching 2000 but Premium Sellers likely winnerGOOGL made a 345 points move from low to high around last earnings. This time, if symmetry holds, GOOGL will reach ATH to about 2000 or 2050.
At near 1900, half that move already happened. Premium sellers of the expected moves are likely winners.
GOOGL is the economy and the economy is not so hot. But youtube is killing it. Also, AMZN is getting an incrementally higher share of ad revenues through its vertical integration. So blow out quarter is less likely a scenario.
Very Positive to see the Mega-caps BreakoutAfter months of not participating in the market rally, its a real positive sign to see the mega-caps breakout last week. I'll still be looking for gains on higher volume to solidify this move, but this can be supportive of the overall market continuing the bullish rally from the 10/30 bottom.
AMZN 3292: Buy on dips to 3200, Long into E via PCS or ButterflyNFLX fired the first shot, would AMZN follow? Likely Yes. As a choppy stock, AMZN may pull back to 3200 in the next 10 days before earnings. 3200 or lower would be a nice launchpad for a long play, with PCS 3200/3150 or Call Butterfly as wide as one can to tolerate the risk (100 is my plan). Not a recommendation.
AMZN is killing it with market share gains, incremental margin, and ad revenue; as are GOOGL MSFT & FB. Always invest in monopoly or riding the winner horses as long as it works. Valuation is secondary or far down below in this new market paradigm that we now know as zero interest rate, huge money printing, and growth are all it matters.
TWTR: Long SHARES into Earnings but sell ATM calls to be safeTWTR has shown significant reversal technically and 1st target is 51.
It is after all a monopoly and monetization will be good, losing users from banning half of America is a short-term issue and is probably priced in. After all, most of the users on TWTR are leaning left.
Cheap compared to all other major social media names.
Charts don't lie, enough people want to own it and enough people are using it and enough cloud to be considered a monopoly for a long time to come.
Am inclined to sell ATM covered call to collect some premium just in case the user # is really bad and the street care, then they may not.
NFLX 565: After 2X EM Now What? 550 or 600? Mean Reversion?NFLX exploded after good earnings (projecting cash flow 1 bill). A 3-day continuation is a pattern for most of the outsized move then it chops.
NFLX has entered the chopping stage; reversion to means targeting 550, then 535. Stronger support is at 535.
NFLX also has a history given up post-earnings gain quickly.
NFLXNFLX is up 61 AH after reporting 8.5 million net new subscribers in its fourth quarter vs 2.2M reported in previous quarter. Netflix tops 200 million subscribers for the first time.
If NFLX can pull back in the morning and backtest the 557 level that can be a good entry to go long. Or you can wait for NFLX to break its previous ATH of 575 to go long.
AMZN 3120: Long into Earnings (NFLX replay) Target 3500Bulls may finally be rewarded on Feb 4, if the market holds.
AMZN has a very similar setup to NFLX, consolidated in a long triangle for months waiting for direction.
3100 is strong support, PCS 3100/3050 would be one way of participating in the earning move. Or 3100/3090 whatever the risk tolerance is.
Upside butterfly of 3300/3400/3500 also a good lotto. Nothing is guaranteed though.
Incrementally, AMZN is likely to see better comp than NFLX as all the small retailers have been wiped out and its cloud business is likely doing good in this anything digital conversion.
My other meg cap favor is GOOGL, youtube is killing it.
Good luck and mind your risk! Obviously, I am just a newbie talking loud myself and it is not any sort of advice as with all my charts.
$NFLX 500: Exploded to 565; Could AMZN follow the same path? Having missed the explosive earning move, I want to reflect if the chart had provided us with some clues but I missed.
Yes. The clues are:
1. A long rectangle box since July as the stock was being accumulated? The longer the rectangle, the larger the move, once breaking out the box.
2. A 3D Squeeze was fired and served as the launchpad for the explosive move post earnings (500 to 565) or 2X expected move.
3. STOCH/RSI is not overbought and somewhat in favor of buys.
Fundamentally, NFLX is benefiting from its pricing power as well as the Covid factor. There would be happy co-exist among the streamers still.
The message here is to pay CLOSE attention to stocks with long accumulation patterns and coupled with a squeeze (esp. the 3D).
AMZN is in a similar TA pattern so will pay close attention before earnings on Feb4.
Breakout could be underway Google held the range high support area and is bouncing strong today. If 1700 holds the stock could be headed to all-time highs. Google can face regulatory pressure but no where near the amount Facebook potentially will. The company also has many more levers to pull and in the worst case a breakout could actually be positive for the stock.
SPY 3760: More correction to come, 3600 and 3500 as SupportThe catalyst would be a change of power and market waking up to the fact the US would be less competitive overall in the world economy for years to come.
Then there is the tired bull that simply needs to rest and mean reversion. In the background though is the massive liquidity created to benefit the market mostly, sadly not so much the little people.
At the current level, the cost of hedging for a correction to 3600 and 3500 is very low. So Put Butterfly and 2ATR IC for some coffee money.
On my shopping list though, in a correction, are GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, COST, CRM, TWTR, BB, AEP, JPM and etc. Most are very well established companies with monopolistic businesses.
Peace and love to humanity.
TWTR 45: Use rally to exit as user base would be down this QI love TWTR and its monopoly position.
The co is losing users after giving fat fingers to 75 mil Americans who voted for the other ticket.
Technically it is oversold on RSI but not on MACD with increased volume on this decline.
Using rally as an exit opportunity but not shorting the stock as it is a monopoly and its long-term outlook is excellent.
I would be inclined to be a seller of PCS at 40 levels, hopefully, post earnings after all the bad news are priced in.
GOOGL is my favorite as a social media co as the educationally focused contents are immensely useful and valuable. Technically it is the best-looking mega-cap for which I would be eagerly going long on dips, perhaps PCS 1650/1600.
FB is still cheap compared to the market and the fervor of "digital stocks" so I would be buyers on dips too.