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GOOGL

Implied Volatiliy a Risk Pre and Post Earnings AMZN AAPL GOOGLI want to point out two things in this post: 1. The elevated implied volatility before earnings on blue chips stocks is per se a risk factor due to high call open interest and the following reduction in implied volatility post earnings. 2. The SKEW index is signaling increasing tail risk. The first point: As I’ve pointed out in recent posts, high open interest has been a tailwind for stocks as market makers are short calls and forced to buy the underlying without any other purpose but to hedge. Before earnings, implied volatility (IV) on stocks rises significantly. For out-of-the-money options, the delta rises with higher IV (this makes intuitively sense because higher volatility means a higher probability for the option to get in-the-money). As IV rises before earnings, the sum of the delta dollars rises. This is forcing market makers to increase their notional hedges, i.e. they need to buy more of the underlying when their net short calls (status quo) in order to stay delta neutral. Post earnings IV falls . This is a risk when market makers are long the underlying stocks, and traders long the options. When IV falls (all else equal) the market makers may sell the underlying stock no matter how good the earnings reports are. The second point: The SKEW Index is derived from S&P500 options, and measures tail risk, which is the risk for outlier returns. When the SKEW is 100, the option market is discounting negligible tail risk. As the SKEW rises above 100, the tail risk is increasing. The SKEW is not a timing instrument, but worth watching as it reaches extreme levels (now >140). In summary: The large cap stocks have had an amazing outperformance as I’ve highlighted in recent posts. Even though they may beat earnings expectations, the structure of the options market may be a headwind post earnings. The SKEW is signaling higher tail risk.
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by eirikb007
1
Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 5 GOOGLEHere is the culmination of my last 4 months of technical analysis of the stock market. I looked at important growth stocks of the past and where they are today. From that analysis, I applied the lessons learned to todays market. 1) Growth stocks break out of the mean channel of wave 1 to finish wave 3 and 5. Average stocks stay in the mean channel. 2) The following correction will take them back to the project mean of wave 1, maybe even below. The more they break above the mean the more they drop during the correction. 3) Head and Shoulders pattern usually describes motive waves 4-5 and the following corrective ABC wave. After a major correction several things can be learned 1) Some companies never really recover, assume they just had high prices because every company did (thing tech bubble) 2) Some companies recover but never become growth stocks again and grow but stay along a mean growth 3) Some companies are able to reinvent themselves and become growth stocks again (MICROSOFT) I can't say I did everything correctly. I took my best shot at it and at the minimum gives a solid idea what could be to come for stocks in 2020 and beyond. I broke this down in several idea posts. Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 1 GE Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 2 AT&T Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 3 IBM Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 4 MICROSOFT Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 5 GOOGLE Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 6 AMAZON Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 7 S&P 500 Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 8 NASDAQ Hope this helps and good luck.
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by Dr_Roboto
$GOOGL Options play of the month | New ATH!Technical look on $GOOGL with a huge potential options play through earnings Throughout Covid, Netflix has performed rather well since the first wave down, pushing 46% from lows. We are looking for Google to either retest previous ATH or straight rip, will probably play it safe and wait for the retest. If the setup doesn't look good enough for entry, we will simply sit on our hands and wait for the right time. The Play: GOOGL $1,600 Call 7/17 Estimated Time: 7-13 Days - Bullish - Breakout on the upside to make even more ATHs, looking to retest the previous channel resistance. This play will payout stupid but takes quite a bit of capital, congrats if you made a bag on this :) This is not financial advice nor am I a financial advisor DotcomJack (View other option plays below)
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by DotcomJack
Elliott Wave View: Alphabet (GOOGL) Resumes Higher in wave ((5))Alphabet (GOOGL) has broken above June 24 high, suggesting that the next leg higher has started. The stock has ended the correction from June 11 high in wave ((4)) as a Flat Elliott Wave Structure. Wave (A) ended at 1385.80 low, wave (B) ended at 1475.79 high, and wave (C) ended at 1351.65 low. This 3 waves move ended wave ((4)) pullback. From that low, the stock extended higher in wave 1, which ended at 1402 high. The pullback in wave 2 then ended at 1393.22 low. Afterwards, the stock resumed higher in wave 3, where the subwave unfolded as a 5 waves Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((i)) ended at 1406.50 high, wave ((ii)) ended at 1395.64 low, wave ((iii)) ended at 1448.48 high, wave ((iv)) ended at 1441 low, and wave ((v)) ended at 1488.52 high. Wave 4 pullback is proposed complete at 1468.55 low. The stock can push for another high before ending 5 waves rally from June 29 low in wave (1). A larger degree pullback in wave (2) should then follow before the rally resume again. As far as pivot at 1351.05 low stays intact, expect dips in 3, 7, or 11 swing to continue finding support.
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by Elliottwave-Forecast