GOOGL
GOOGL - When you arrive late for the party, how to trade.This is one of the trading situations I hate most - when I get too late for optimal entry, and I find that the asset has been trending already for quite some time.
In this case, the optimal entry would be around at 1020, on the left chart you can see the area has been circled with a black line.
This asset is a reliable company that has been growing for years, and every time I see this kind of chart, I always have the feeling I lost all the best part and that I'm too late and I can't profit from this.
Which is not the case, if this asset is trending for years, why would it stop now? So if you're a long term holder, which is the profile that buys this kind of blue-chip stock like AMZN, MSFT, APPL or GOOGL, what difference would it make for you if you traded this accurately and not only buying and holding.
I don't want to get too deep because that's not the point, but there are MANY things going on with the economy now that show a dangerous road ahead of us, US debt ceiling, the renewal of many futures and bonds...and the recent SPY "short recession", the difference between 10/30 yr bonds and intermediary bidders and much more.
So the point of having this edge is to minimize risk. By being patient and applying easy techniques you can almost trade this risk-free - of course, don't expect high returns from such a liquid asset(more liquidity, less volatility).
I use three timeframes, one huge one to give me context, an intermediary one to provide me with insights of possible faster trades, and the fasted one for precision entry.
Since I used the 120 timeframes, I was able to buy some around at 1184 on the Spectro Fibo Level bounce, pointed by a small green arrow.
Now I'm waiting for a cross on 1195 level to increase my position and have an avg price of 1189.5
The three targets are the most important ones because that's where I'll adjust my stop-loss once it gets there with some slack.
If you're a smart guy, you will see that I said STOP-LOSS and not take profit because this is a trending asset, so it tends to keep going up and up and up, no reason to make profits.
As you can see the M candles shows a stable channel that has been holding the move for over six years! So why bet against that?
Yes, there are the dangers I mentioned previously and that's the reason to be so careful with your entry.
Because by doing this, even if something bad happens, you will be on profit even if you get stopped.
My stop-loss is at 1181, on the D chart you will see it's the next closest Auto Fibo Level, and there's a good possibility of reaching 1181.5, so I'd reinforce my position at that price if we see it and I'd keep my stop-loss at 1181 nevertheless.
So by using this technique, you'll ensure that you're always buying on the lowest part of the channel, where the odds are in your favor twice as much(trend + lower region).
The R:R factor from target 3 to 1181 stop-loss is around 4, which is amazing.
Short it to the ground!Disclaimer: This is a trade that is set to last at least 6 months. Only for people invested in to consider selling, and those that do long term trades. Personally won't be shorting it. I lose my mind and start ripping my hair out if something takes more than 2 weeks.
End of the road for google. Their search engine is deteriorating. The markets globally are moving so irrationally. Dumb money for sure. Youtube is going crazy, discriminating people at random, killing videos, channels, they don't care about their creators because there is not much competition. Yet. But it is starting.
Not going to start a long explanation anyone can go check for themselves. Short version: Google products bad, bubble bad.
Remember what happened last year when the video game industry started abusing micro transactions and also getting "woke" and attacking their clients?
Right now it's even struggling to dead cat bounce, it actually looks like it's going to end up down 75% or more from ath.
Google 2008 linear chart:
Googl compared to video game companies:
What is the risk? The risk imo is the stock market, moving irrationally due to dumb money, has been going up for 6 months on trade war hopes, pulls a 1929 on us.
But even if that were to happen, doesn't mean google would go to 2000$. A stop loss at 1600$ would give much higher odds of winning, but not a great risk to reward. A stop loss at the previous high is a great risk to reward, but lower odds. So ye depends on every one strategy. I personally prefer RR 1 to 2. Lower than 1 you get really high winrates but it doesn't feel optimal and losers set you back alot doesn't matter in the long run but still, doesn't feel the best. And really high risk rewards are for idiots plain and simple.
For the next two decades whether it is wise to invest in googl or in their competitors (Yahoo/Verizon Vimeo/IAC etc) will depend on how googl adapts.
If they mess up and their leading position goes to their head and they refuse to adapt, then good night. Who cares about myspace or friendster now? What has their n°1 spot 20 years ago done for them? RIP.
It will also depend on their competitors. The whole company. Just 1 of their service growing is cute but the rest has to go along.
Also will depend on the charts, if supports are holding, if we see buying interest... Unless you're a pure value investor and don't care lol.
I still think it's interesting to look at the chart. What's the point of buying something of value cheap if no one is going to buy after you?
Maybe a whole new competitor emerges and tears google apart?
* Wait I'm seeing a pattern here. Every silenced/discriminated youtuber is a white man. Non profit channels to help handicapped children - that happen to be run by a white man - are getting hit (yes really... they got that dirty) handicapped children... are you serious... they literally could not be more evil... They're silencing channels about animals and stuff. Non political stuff, non edgy, non weird, non adult themed, just little children and animals.
Really? And what they all have in common is the youtuber has white skin and looks like a man. I didn't notice anything with the girls - except the non PC ones ofc - channels. And "trending" is full of black men and girls. OH MY this is it. This truly is what is going on. Wtf is wrong with these idiots? Discriminating a whole group because "we don't like it there is too many of them".
Isn't that how Hitler got started with the jews? Closing their stores with the SA in 1933?
$GOOG approaching R1 reversal zone. Price reversion area.We're coming to a major reversal zone on $GOOG, we've had a great run but the overextended NASDAQ looks to be cooling off, and this is a great place for a short entry or exiting a long on $GOOG/$GOOGL.
The R1 zone at $1209 pegs the October 2nd/3rd resistance level. There's likely to be strong selling pressure here (if we ever make it that far). A great entry point would be a sell order just below this level, if we get a small leg up it will quickly sell off and skilled traders will likely peg the top of this move.
The move down has two price targets, first, at the start of this move at $1147, and second, just below P at $1085. We're likely to tag the first target and depending on the velocity of the move the second as well.
Goog longs should understand that this is a significant resistance area, and likely to be met with a swift sell off. Cheers trading.
GOOGL PumpMoney keeps flowing into the market, so you know they gotta pump something other than chip stocks and bubble stocks. I venture to guess they're going to pump financials and retail as usual, and FAANG stocks finally break out from their earnings slump.
I said a couple of weeks ago $NDX (QQQ) was going to look like last May with a sideways drift, and I was sorta right. Guess what happened last June? Look at the charts....
GOOGL channel scalp LONGThere is a channel on the GOOGL chart, for learning purposes I'm keeping an eye on this to see if it is worth a long scalp.
I'm seeing an RSI at 30, it is low but not convincing. There is also a support that is proven a multiple times.
It could be worth the risk, these channels show up a lot so if I can see a way to make some safe profit on these they could be nice to trade.
Thanks for reading and please give me some feedback, follow or a like!
GOOGL Weekly OTM play: 25 pts with 3 days to go?Today NASDAQ:GOOGL —
-fights off pop and fade
-breaks out of 2-day wedge
-climbs channel, topside.
Still work to do, but holding Jan. 11 expiry 1110c @2.50 because:
-today's performance
-moving averages momentum
-QQQ outlook.
If Trump evening speech has any effect, it will be upside, because:
-manipulator-in-chief.
Nasdaq short term analysis: possible rally after Apple-led slumpNews came out that the US and China are starting negotiation on trade dispute, and Asia markets are mostly up despite slump in US stock market overnight.
With regards to China, the economy is rapidly deteriorating , with December PMI flashing below 50, the level that defines contraction and expansion. The US is the largest export country for China, so that the Chinese government is incentivized to make a deal with President Trump. The US, on the contrary, stock market is the pillar of capital market and personal wealth. The sever dropping in Nasdaq and SP500 will probably mount considerable measure to President Trump , as he considered the booming stock market as one of his great " achievements ". In light of recent turmoil and uncertainties, I'd say the US would also like to make a deal to prop up market sentiment.
Technically, the recent recovery is just a short covering practice. I expect more selling taking place, once the economy indicator worsen or trade talks run short of expectations.
What if GOOGLE falls?In this screencast I look at GOOGLE which is Alphabet, Apple, Netflix, Nvidia. The picture of meltdown is serious. Google is at a key level of congestion which could break down.
Overall the technology sector stocks which dominate Wall Street and other indices across the world could cause a domino effect.
Market looks constructive, but still a ways to go!!!Been a while since I've done a true VWAP analysis of the market here, but after today's rally, it seems like a great time.
Basically, the market has been oversold for a while and everyone knew a bounce was coming. Taking a short position this week was quite insane just because a face-ripper of a rally was imminent and the R:R just wasn't worth it.
Over the past month, we've had this major break down in price as the market consolidated towards the FOMC meeting and broke to the downside of the triangle after the event occured, leading to a major decline.
Today, we saw a nice rally up into the VWAP from the FOMC meeting. This is quite constructive, letting us know the market is retesting some very key points here. The main supply level that people should be highly aware of is the 250-255 level, and if you don't feel that's quite important (even though that's where the orange VWAP is which acted as resistance before FOMC and where the resistance trendline of the triangle is) you should absolutely be aware of the 258-262 level, which basically supported the market since October until we broke below it.
Anyway, it's tough to be short at the moment, at least in the near-term time frame just because of the levels of oversold the market has been. Rallies like this do happen in downtrending markets though, because of the heightened volatility, so still be protective of your capital!!
If you were to take a long position (which is far from a poor idea), keep an eye on the red VWAP which is the average cost basis since the open today. It's important that people who are buying into this rally remain profitable, because if that fact changes, panic could easily restart here in the markets.
In order for my overall neutral/bearish long term outlook to change, I would need to see the market get up to around 255-260 and bounce in that range for a little before breaking that green VWAP to the upside. First though, it must break this downtrending resistance line that's been quite textbook.
Real quick, before I end this post, here is a picture of the SPY over the long term:
Basically, trendlines are not SUPPOSED to (but can be) be perfect lines that price always bounces at. All you need to take from this is that the market is at a very very very long term Log trendline (and non-log trendline from 2008 if you prefer that), so this could possibly be the reversal point that was needed, but I would personally rather have the market not test support lines as I believe in theory that trend lines are weakened the more they're tested, contrary to the opinion that many think trendlines strengthen the more they're tested.
Anway, that's it from me. In the tradition of me always ending my post on some sort of advice to take away from this whole thing, all I can say is protect your capital!! Cash is a position, and everyone forgets that but right now it's more important now than ever to realize that if your confidence in the market is subpar, get out of the market! Try to think clearly and don't panic, but I once heard this saying in a podcast (I believe it was the one hosted by J.C. Parets), a pilot who was on that podcast said "There is a saying as a pilot, that you would rather be on the ground wishing you were in the sky, than in the sky wishing you were on the ground" and that saying could not be more applied to the markets in my opinion. You should never have 100% confidence in any move you make, just because that means your risk management skills are lacking, but you absolutely should be weary of allocating capital if you don't feel you're in the right mindset.
If you have any questions, feel free to leave them below. Thanks.
The Fall of Search Giant.Google has been grown exponentially since its inception.
However all big run comes to end.We should see a correction coming soon.
For google to stay bullish(unlikely) it should stay above 1014$ .However,if it breaks down then hell will break loose.(548 & 358)
Head And shoulder formation
5 wave completion of Elliot cycle
Breaking below historical log trendline.
Being an investor this is profit taking zone..
Being a buyer patience is the key here.
ALPHABET INC. (GOOGL) Crash Incoming (~20% Drop On Its Way)ALPHABET INC., Google's parent company, is no exception to what is coming to conventional markets. There are many very strong signals pointing towards a crash... and this crash is already on its way.
GOOGL has already dropped by over 18% since hitting a All Time High on the July 2018... More red is on its way.
Let's take a look at the signals for learning and entertainment purposes:
Let's start with the MACD. On the left hand side, you can see a red dotted line with an "X" in the middle... This is back in 2008. When the MACD crossed below 0, the price crashed really hard. When you look at the right hand side of the indicator, you can notice that the same event is taking place now. This is a strong bearish signal.
If you have been reading my analysis you should be pretty familiar now with the signal called "divergence"... This is going on here as well on both MACD and RSI (Bearish Divergence).
GOOGL broke and closed below EMA50. It was quickly rejected when it tried to move back up. If GOOGL breaks and closes below EMA100 (blue line), we can aim straight for our "MAIN TARGET" on chart.
RSI & MACD are bearish.
These signals are very strong and clear... ALPHABET INC. (GOOGL) will continue to crash. Others are also crashing...
Apple:
Bank Of America:
S&P500:
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Namaste.