Crash Zone highlighted in Red. Fair warning is given as well; "Sell Sell Sell"
Downward curving spiral channel. Equities crash when we hit the top of the resistance line. Likely stock market crash Q1/Q2 2023 given rate of increase. Short-term consolidation period expected Q2/Q3 '21 before final rip. GG
Risk strikes when least expected. Optimism peaks before a downturn strikes. Chart below shows remarkable spike in articles mentioning soft-landing before recession hits. Human brain is engineered to think linearly. Anything non-linear tricks the mind. Recession is non-linear which muddles up investor estimates of recession, its timing and impact. Count of...
Time for yet another update in this uncanny inverse relationship between the SG10Y Government Bonds and the S&P500 Index ETF, SPY... Recall that the SG10Y GBond yields are in apparent inverse correlation to the SPY. When there is a trendline breakdown on the yields, the SPY is bullish; and when there is a trendline breakout, the SPY is bearish. So far, it can be...
US Government Bonds 10YR Yield. Time-frame = 1 month. In 2005-2007 (red circle) - a double top was built (determined automatically by my script) from which the downward movement began for further accumulation. 2009-2019 (green rectangle) - long-term accumulation (balance). 2019-2022 (blue circle) - responsive activity (long entry by key players). 2022-2023...
As you can see for the past 9 years 30 year US government bonds was in positive correlation with S&P. The correlation is not 1:1 but about 80% of the times they move together. Two incidents where they were separated was March 2020 Covid event and the subsequent bull run. Even during most of the massive bull run they moved together but a drop in 30 year yields...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is on a 3 day rebound following a hit on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the natural Resistance, but if crossed, we can expect a long-term peak at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down pattern that started on the October 21 High. A closing below the 1D MA200 first,...
I'm both a bull and a bear on the 20yr treasury etf (TLT).. I created a long term buy analysis basis on the bullish cypher pattern I see forming at the conclusion of D leg. I like the yield of the 20yr treasury bond which is over 4%.. The dividend yield on the 20yr Treasury etf is 2.49% currently, and I expect it to rise. The dividend is paid monthly. I see the...
Hello Fellow Bond Investor/Trader/Global Economist, Here's our technical outlook for Indonesia 5 Year Government Bond Yield! Chart Perspective ID05Y is forming the symmetrical triangle and we will wait for the breakout as a confirmation of bullish bias ahead. The momentum Indicator made a golden cross, that signifies a potential bullish movement to the target...
Due to the rising inflation, the Fed has stepped in to reign in inflation. Jerome Powell has stated numerous times he will be aggressive with rate hikes just like Paul Volcker was in the '80s. Powell and Volcker are of the same school of thought. "Inflation emerged as an economic and political challenge in the United States during the 1970s. The monetary...
After yesterdays rally it could be that we have hit a possible top in the rise of 10Y Govt Bond Yield. If this is correct it could signal a possible continued rally in more speculative investments. If it breaks above and continues up this logic will be invalidated, and further downside to speculative assets may enroll. Not financial advise, just an idea, I...
bonds have been playing along with the aggressive selling in equities so far, but that looks as if it may be about to change for the near term. if risk off/conservative sentiment were really back in force for broader markets we would see government bond yield continuing to increase as the market drops. what the ten year has been telling me for the past week is...
Cup and handle about to complete and looking bullish.
With tech indices gaining much-needed momentum last week, lower bond yields helped push Palantir past a key level in price action. Since December of 2020, PLTR had been trending in a downward channel- with lower lows and lower highs being established. On June 2nd, the price seemed to have broken out of that channel and may indicate a reversal in price action if...
I see many people say on internet that the market is highly volatile and very hard to predict the trend. In my opinion, institutional investors (even including Fed) have different thoughts about where the economy is heading due to uncertainty. So, I want to guess what they are probably thinking so that it may give us some clues why the market is acting in this...
One of the hot topics in the market recently has been the rising bond yields. The US Government Bond 10 year yield traded this week inside a Zone that has formerly been (from 2011 to 2019) a long-term Support level as clearly illustrated on the chart. With the RSI on the 1W time-frame also entering its Resistance Zone (holding since 1996) and the MACD approaching...
Wait for the trend lines to break out. Interesting times ahead.
Yields are still currently low based on the long-term regression trend. What does it imply for RMB bonds if we expect a rate increase in the mid-term (independently of exchange rate movements)? - Avoid long-duration RMB government bonds, - Prefer short duration or floating-rate ones.