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GPS

GPS - Getting ready to break out of a 20 year base ?!I'm late to the party here but we have clean price action and wave count, we can therefore take advantage of the smaller mouvements not only the bigger ones. In this case, I'm waiting for the orange wave iv pullback to start initiating some longs that could yield some 20%-25% without much risk. Red wave iv will be the more interesting move afterwards. Btw this stock has been consolidating since 2000 and could get ready to breakout ! And you know the saying, the bigger the base, the bigger the breakout ! So, definitely keep this one on your watchlist and even think about putting it on your longer term portfolio. Another very interesting aspect is that Dividends could come back soon!
GLong
by ElliottWaveBelgium
THE WEEK AHEAD: GPS EARNINGS; KRE, XLE, EWZ, IWM/RUTEARNINGS: Only one underlying makes my cut for a earnings announcement volatility contraction play: GPS (25/70/14.9%),* which announces on Tuesday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Tuesday's session. To me, it's small enough to short straddle, with the pictured setup paying 3.72 (.93 at 25% max). Alternatively, go short strangle: the December 18th 22/29 was paying 1.25 (.62 at 50% max). Of a defined risk bent? Go iron fly with the December 18th 20/25/25/30 and get better than risk one to make metrics, with the setup paying 3.00 even as of Friday close (.75 at 25% max). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY BANG FOR YOUR BUCK (JANUARY 15TH EXPIRY): KRE (22/40/14.0%) (Yield: 3.43%) XLE (25/43/12.5%) (Yield: 6.15%) EWZ (17/43/12.2%) (Yield: 2.89%) GDX (13/37/11.7%) (No dividends) SLV (22/37/10.8%) (No dividends) BROAD MARKET RANKED BY BANG FOR YOUR BUCK (JANUARY 15TH EXPIRY): IWM (24/30/8.5%) QQQ (20/26/7.6%) SPY (18/23/6.2%) EFA (16/19/5.3%) * -- The first metric is volatility rank/percentile (i.e., where 30-day implied volatility is relative to where it's hung out the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied; and the third, what the December at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price ("Bang for Your Buck").
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by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: GPS; SLV, GDX/GDXJ, XOP, IWM/RUTEARNINGS: GPS (37/82/17.0%) is really the only earnings announcement that interests me from a volatility contraction perspective. Pictured here is a September 18th skinny short strangle, which was paying 2.03 as of Friday close. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR IMPLIED >35% AND WHERE THE OCTOBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE: SLV (50/61/17.4%) GDX (22/47/14.1%) XLE (21/37/11.6%) GDXJ (19/55/16.7%) EWZ (18/45/13.2%) XOP (14/49/14.0%) Juice as a function of stock price resides in SLV (17.4%), followed by GDXJ (16.7%), GDX (14.1%), and XOP (14.0%). BROAD MARKET: QQQ (23/28/8.2%) IWM (23/29/8.4%) EFA (17/21/5.6%) SPY (16/22/5.8%) IWM/RUT is where the premium is, relatively speaking, followed by the QQQ's. DIVIDEND YIELDERS: XLU (18/22/6.8%) EWA (18/22/7.8%) EWZ (18/45/13.2%) IYR (17/22/6.9%) EFA (16/22/5.6%) SPY (16/22/5.8%) HYG (15/13/3.3%) TLT (14/16/4.6%) EMB (11/10/2.8%) Brazil ... again?!
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by NaughtyPines
GPS Ascending ChannelHello Community! Before we begin please support my idea with a thumbs up and a comment. It'll be greatly appreciated and will motivate me to post a little more! Lets keep it simple. We see GPS Inc trading in an ascending channel on the daily. If it plays out perfectly it'll pass $15 to retest the top of the channel which is just about the same location as the next major resistance zone "Top Green Line". If it gets rejected there's a good chance it'll retest the bottom on the channel "Bottom Green Line" which is right around $12. Let's watch closely. This is not Financial advice. Safe Trading Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! Simplicity Wins
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by rnaofs
1
$GPS in a higher degree Impulse Wave 1 of 1 Disclaimer:  I have been trading in the markets for about a year.  After several months of charting various instruments, my eyes have gotten trained to recognize different candle formation patterns like Bear & Bull Flags, Head & Shoulders, and others.  This was good.  But, not enough for me to accurately forecast the next following moves and market structure after these patterns had been completed. For me my next evolution as a Trader came with a more fine-tuned approach to Market Structure, The Elliott Wave Theory.  There are two books that were recommended to me as I started this journey. 1.  Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior by Robert Prechter and A. J. Frost, www.elliottwave.com 2. Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading by Wayne Gorman and Jeffrey Kennedy, www.elliottwave.com I am still learning.  I accept the fact that my analysis may be wrong. But, these are my charts as I continue my journey.  I am open to all feedback on my analysis as I continue to improve.
GLong
by RicoConnects
THE WEEK AHEAD: HD, LOW, TGT, GPS, M EARNINGS; /NG, VIX, VXXEARNINGS: HD (24/21) (Tuesday Before Market) LOW (68/35) (Wednesday Before Market) TGT (66/37) (Wednesday Before Market) GPS (60/53) (Thursday After Market) M (97/67) (Thursday Before Market) Pictured here is an M short straddle at the 17 strike in the December cycle, paying 2.73 with 14/72/19.73 break evens, and delta/theta metrics of -4.49/3.77. Look to put on a play on Wednesday before the end of the New York session. In second place for ideal volatility contraction metrics is GPS (60/53). As with M, I would short straddle here, with the December 20th 18 paying 2.22 with 15/78/20.22 break evens, and delta/theta metrics of 1.29/3.06. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: TLT (42/12) EEM (40/17) SLV (29/20) EWZ (26/27) FXI (26/19) ... with the first expiry in which the at-the-money short straddle pays more than 10% of the value of the underlying: TLT, January '21; EEM, June; SLV, July; EWZ, March; and FXI, May. Both the rank/implied metrics, as well as the short straddle value metric indicate that it's probably a good time to hand sit on selling shorter duration premium here. BROAD MARKET: With VIX finishing the week at 12.05, volatility is at or near 52 week lows here in all the majors: SPY's in the 6th percentile; IWM in the 4th; and QQQ at 0. The first expiry in which the at-the money short straddle pays greater than 10% of the value of the underlying: SPY, Sept; IWM, June; and QQQ, June. Both the rank/implied metrics, as well as the short straddle value metric indicate that it's probably a good time to hand sit on selling shorter duration premium here. FUTURES: /6B (63/11) /NG (40/59) /ZS (30/20) /SI (29/19) /CL (24/33) As I may have mentioned last week, it's no surprise that /NG volatility is frisking up here. Generally, I play natty for seasonality, so look to get in with something bullish assumption at seasonal lows/peak injection, bail out of the long delta position in January or February depending on how Mother Nature feels, and then look to ride the elevator down in the opposite direction with a short delta position. I'm not keen on selling nondirectional premium (e.g., iron condors), particularly given what natty did last winter, so am sticking with my traditional, no-nonsense seasonality play. Another item of note: GVX (gold volatility) has dropped substantially here, finishing the week at 11.22, in the 23rd percentile for the year ... . VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: As previously mentioned, VIX closed the week at near 2019 lows (12.05), with the December, January, and February /VX contracts trading at 15.09, 16.60, and 17.50, respectively. Consequently, VIX term structure trades are still viable in the January and February expiries, but would probably beg off a December setup in the absence of a pop that runs that contract up to >16; the 16 strike is generally the lowest I will go with the short option leg of a VIX term structure trade. As far as derivatives are concerned, this definitely isn't the place to be adding shorts. While it may be that VIX hangs out at these levels for a lengthy period of time, shorts are most productive on VIX pops -- not at VIX lows, even if contango and beta slippage are really working in shorts' favor here. As we all know, both the current steep contango and low VIX levels can evaporate in a heartbeat. If anything, this may be one of the rare occasions to consider a small bullish assumption trade (e.g., a VXX December 20th 15/17/17/19 "Super Bull,"* paying a .20 credit, with max profit/loss metrics of 2.20/1.80 and a break even of 16.80 versus the 17.40 where VXX is currently trading). * -- A 15/17 short put vertical combined with a 17/19 long call vertical.
NYSE:M
by NaughtyPines
3
~10% 3 weeks or less. GPS Earnings run up.After a recent reversal and a history of higher low support GPS is poised to have a 10% run up into earnings. RSI and Stochastic give additional support. With a very solid P/E of 6.67, it's one of the lowest in the retail clothes sector. With minimal Debt/Equity of 0.34 and a Current Ratio of 1.50 We can even choose to hold through earnings for additional gains and with an attractive dividend of 5.73%. GPS is more than just Gap. Their Lulu Lemon-esque brand Athleta is expected to have a record year. Old Navy revenue has also been on the rise.
GLong
by TheGoatTrade
THE WEEK AHEAD: BBY, DE, GPS, LOW EARNINGS; UNG, XOP, NFLXIn spite of the shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, there are balls to hit out there ... . Earnings: BBY (95/57) (announcing Tuesday before market open): The December 21st 57.5/75 short strangle shown here is paying 2.42 with break evens near the one standard deviation line. I tried pricing out a defined risk iron condor, but it looks like some strikes need to populate post-November opex in order for me to price a setup where I'd want to set up my tent (i.e., short strikes between the 20 and 30 deltas, longs 3-5 strikes out with the setup paying at least one-third the width of the wings). LOW (78/40) (announcing Tuesday before market open): As with the DE play, I'm able to price out a short strangle -- the 80% probability of profit December 21st 80/105 pays 1.35, but not an iron condor due to the population of strikes around where I'd like to set up. I'll just have to wait until NY open to price a defined risk setup. GPS (87/54) (announcing Tuesday after market close): To me, it's small enough to short straddle, with the December 21st 26 short straddle paying 3.17, but I could also see going with the 23/29 (paying 1.05) to give yourself a little more flexibility with defense if you're not a fan of defending the straddle via inversion (which is generally what you have to do with a short straddle where the move is greater than the expected). Alternatively, the December 21st 21/26/26/31 iron fly pays 2.71 with a buying power effect of 2.29, which are the metrics I'm looking for out of an iron fly (risk one to make one or better; credit received at least one-fourth the number of strikes between the longs). DE (81/48) (announcing Wednesday before market open): The December 21st 135/160 is paying 4.53 with near one standard deviation break evens; the 130/135/160/165 iron condor in the same expiry pays 1.75. Non-Earnings Single Name: NFLX (69/54) still has some juice in it post-earnings. The December 21st 240/245/325/330 is paying 1.56 -- not quite one-third the width, but you're only working with 33 days until expiry. Exchange-Traded Funds: The top symbols: SLV (100/24), UNG (100/97), EEM (63/27), OIH (77/41), and XOP (77/42). Unless you've been living under a rock, UNG, OIH, and XOP "friskiness" are understandable here, with oil prices taking a header from more than $75/bbl. to a low $20 below that since the beginning of October. Conversely, a fire got lit under natty's ass due to seasonally early weather-related pressure, shooting up from a less than a 3.50 print at the start of November to 4.93 mid-month. It's eased back to 4.39 since then, but yeesh ... . Were it not natural gas, I'd be inclined to sell premium in UNG given the rank/implied metrics, but I'm patiently waiting for my standard seasonality play -- a downward put diagonal with the front month in Jan, the back month mid year. Since we're only in November with plenty of winter in front of us, I'm satisfied with waiting on more potential upside before pulling the trigger on that setup. With XOP and related products, I've been selling nondirectional premium, although I could see potentially skewing things bullishly, adding some petro underlying long delta to existing setups, or just taking an outright bullish assumption shot (e.g., /CL short puts, XOP/OIH/XLE short puts, upward call diagonals, etc.), since oil has been totally crushed here. Majors: SPY (31/21); QQQ (53/25); IWM (54/23); DIA (37/19). Temporarily, it looks like QQQ is where the broad market premium is at, followed by IWM.
NYSE:BBY
by NaughtyPines
4
THE WEEK AHEAD: BABA, GPS EARNINGS; TSLA, GDX, USO, GDXA quick, dirty of next week: EARNINGS WITH FAVORABLE METRICS FOR A VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAY BABA (86 rank/41% 30-day) announces on 8/23 (Thursday) before market open. Sept 21st 155/195 short strangle (16 delta), 3.68 credit. Sept 21st 150/155/195/200 iron condor, 1.32 credit. Notes: With the defined risk, you'll need to bring the wings in a touch more or use the same shorties to get the one-third the width of the wings in credit I ordinarily look for out of these. GPS (58 rank/46% 30-day) announces on 8/23 (Thursday) after market close. Sept 21st 31 short straddle, 3.26 credit. Sept 21st 28/35 short strangle, .91 credit. Sept 21st 26/31/31/36 iron fly: 2.78 credit. Notes: The flies can be pesky to manage if they go awry, so I generally opt for the naked short straddle over that if it's an underlying under $50. SINGLE NAME WITH EARNINGS IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR TSLA (85 rank/79% 30-day): Sept 21st 250/255/350/355 iron condor, 1.61 credit. Notes: Very nearly one-third the width of the wings out of this 20 delta. EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS GDX (76/31), GDXJ (56/33), USO (54/27), and EWZ (52/40) round out the top funds with ranks greater than 50. Notes: GDX and GDXJ may be amenable to bullish assumption directionals (short puts, short put verticals, upward call diagonals) while EWZ continues to have just Plain Jane premium that can you can skew directionally if you're so inclined (since it pretty much remains on its butt). USO has never been my favorite /CL proxy with XOP (18/28) being my go-to. MAJOR FOOD GROUPS QQQ has the highest 30-day (17), followed by IWM (15), SPY (14),and EFA (13). /VX term structure remains in contango with VIX at 13.10 as of Friday close versus the August /VX contract at 13.15, September at 14.40. The QQQ Oct 19th 168/172/2x188/2x190 "double double" (see Post Below) is paying 1.48 at the mid, although it's a little early for me to pull the trigger on an October setup (61 days 'til).
NYSE:BABA
by NaughtyPines
11