Grains
Wheat higher: droughts in the US, and trade tensionsWheat has been bullish since the beginning of 2018 and I think there is reason to expect to see it continue.
Some of the main drivers are:
1. Potential tariff introduction and major us trade partners like mexico moving to other wheat sources affect trade stability and commodities as a whole.
2. The developing drought in the US this summer
Watching for a move higher from the $5.00 level off the major support developed at $4.75. Probably not the most explosive move (unless the drought gets really bad, then watch for a boom!) and will expect a steady grind up into the $5.50-$5.85 through to the end of the year.
So what do you think? Is there a case for bullish wheat or will we stay sideways? Would love to hear your feedback, share with me your charts, ideas, and comments!
Peace, love, and sweet bamboo,
tbp
Note: All ideas expressed here are presented solely for learning and educational purposes only. Any gains or losses assumed by trading ideas presented by The Bad Panda are done so at your own risk.
Wheat flat to upI have a big picture tool I use that has been very good to me and it is now indicating shorting puts in wheat will be a good spot to take advantage of a sideways or climbing wheat prices. I will trade the 31 DTE options and will move down to the 30 delta strike put to give it a bit of wiggle room. Not a big trade but not much buying power is used either
Wheat 2618 Trade Opportunity 01/11/2016I previously shorted wheat 1 pip from the top and it was a very nice trade (although I closed too early around 3.99 or so). Price bounced from the .382 fib of the larger up move but the price action in the current area looks weak. I am looking to re-open shorts at the levels in the chart but only if no warning signs are present -- big bullish candles, oversold RSI , etc.
This is not meant to be a trading signal so please do not use it as one -- I still have very much to learn as a trader and none of my ideas are trading advice. That said I always appreciate any comments and feedback on my charts and ideas!
DBA weekly : have some patience...DBA had a retrace after breaking out of this declining wedge. I am now watching price behaviour around this base area and setting some alerts ( 21.00USD ). If the macro assessment is correct we should see Agrobusiness follow the pro-inflation-fear environment, which means that precious metals, commodities and Agrobusiness should provide considerabel gains in to 2017 and 2018. Long-term appreciation expected. However one has to have enormous patience. Once the big players catch up on this ( they did already in Gold and Silver ) we should be well positioned.