$GBINTR -U.K Interest RatesECONOMICS:GBINTR
(December/2024)
source: Bank of England
The Bank of England left the benchmark bank rate steady at 4.75% during its December 2024 meeting,
in line with market expectations, as CPI inflation, wage growth and some indicators of inflation expectations had risen, adding to the risk of inflation persistence.
The central bank reinforced that a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate and that monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further.
The central bank will continue to decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
Greatbritain
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate Above Forecasts (October/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.3%
October/2024
source: Office for National Statistics
- Annual inflation rate in the UK went up to 2.3% in October 2024, the highest in six months, compared to 1.7% in September.
This exceeded both the Bank of England's target and market expectations of 2.2%.
The largest upward contribution came from housing and household services (5.5% vs 3.8% in September), mainly electricity (-6.3% vs -19.5%) and gas (-7.3% vs -22.8%), reflecting the rise of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) energy price cap in October 2024.
Also, prices rose faster for restaurants and hotels (4.3% vs 4.1%) and rebounded for housing and utilities (2.9% vs -1.7%). Prices of services increased slightly more (5% vs 4.9%), matching estimates form the central bank.
On the other hand, food inflation was steady at 1.9% and the largest offsetting downward contribution came from recreation and culture (3% vs 3.8%).
Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased 0.6%. Finally, annual core inflation edged up to 3.3% from 3.2%.
GBPUSD - Daily Bullish signsOANDA:GBPUSD has recently passed an important support zone, indicating potential for higher targets. After a clear pullback to the 1.2830 area, the pair is positioned for a further rise.
The British Pound has been bolstered by a series of positive economic indicators and political stability. According to recent reports, analysts at Investec have raised their forecast targets for the Pound against the Dollar, driven by a more promising economic outlook and favorable political conditions in the UK. This aligns with the technical setup, where GBPUSD is poised for a continuation of its upward movement following the successful retest of the support zone.
Overall, combining the technical and fundamental perspectives suggests a bullish outlook for GBPUSD, with potential for further gains as long as the support zone holds firm.
$GBINTRS - BoE's Snowball - The Bank of England (BOE) decided to deliver its #inflation medicine in a bigger dose
at their recent monetary policy committee meeting.
The bank made the shock decision to raise borrowing costs a half percentage point,
taking the official rate to 5% ;
double the size of the increase anticipated by most economists.
BoE hiking interest rates to 5% ,
it adds further strain to millions of homeowners across the country.
The Central Bank Rates was upped by 0.5% from 4.5% previously
and remains at it's Highest Level since 2008 Financial Crisis.
GBPUSD - 4H rise opportunityGBPUSD has faced three significant bearish pushes right into a major support zone but has failed to break through.
This inability to breach the support, despite repeated attempts, signals strong buying interest at these levels.
Consequently, this consolidation and failed breakdown indicate a potential bullish reversal, with the expectation of a considerable rise from this zone as buyers regain control.
GBPUSDT → USD BECOME WEAK?hello guys...
do you think usd dollar will become weak?
I think the price is on QML now and it will do some corrections! however, it is not a strong Quasimodo pattern due to the head location! so the price will start an upward movement until the MPL level!
MPL level will make the price some (just a little) correction and then the price will go to 1.27$ level that is mentioned!
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$GBIRYY -CPI (YoY)The inflation rate in the United Kingdom remained stable at 6.7% in September 2023,
holding at August's 18-month low and defying market expectations of a slight decrease to 6.6%.
Softer price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages (12.1% vs 13.6% in August) and furniture and household goods (3.7% vs 5.1%) were offset by a smaller decline in energy costs (-0.2% vs -3.2%) on the back of a monthly rise in motor fuel costs.
Moreover, the core inflation rate,
which excludes volatile items such as energy and food,
dropped to 6.1%, reaching its lowest point since January but slightly exceeding forecasts of 6%.
Both of these figures have remained significantly above the Bank of England's 2% target,
further emphasizing the mounting inflationary pressures in the country and complicating further the task for policymakers who are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting.
On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.5% in September, the most substantial increase since May.
source: Office for National Statistics
GBPCAD SHORTSGBPCAD since the beginning of the week have been moving bearish and in respect to this, I plan to stick to the trend, the daily and the weekly also shows the bearish trend, and to follow this I expect this pair to retrace to the 50 Exponential moving average and we short to the 800 Exponential moving average.
GBPCAD LONGThis is GBPCAD and I expect it to go bullish, why?
1. The support zone at 1.64300 is a four hour support zone
2. I need price to come back to this support zone which supported price as of yesterday to come for a second leg buys.
This is one of the three pairs I've decided to be on till the rest of the year for psychological reasons, and I will try my best to drop daily update about these pairs.
GBPJPY LONG BIAS! (UPDATED)Hello everyone!
Hope you are all well! And had a great weekend!! :)
Some members in my Tel channel suggested me a couple of pairs to analyse, and so here's the first one!
GJ for me is looking tricky, I am against selling this pair for long period of time, as HTF shows long, with a clear target of 184.4.
I will be watching LTF and Daily for a strong Demand Zone to line up for a potential buy to 166 as a first TP.
I hope you enjoy the Top-Down analysis! Any questions? just DM me!!
Take care!
GBPCAD LongHI Everyone, looks like another good trade for next week... GBP showing some bullish momentum, according to Macd the price is changing in momentum as well the price is testing the 50ma which means the price is trying to change the direction to an uptrend.. Price touched the main support twice and pulled back, price will most likely break the resistance trend line and test the next resistance at 1.60 to 1.61. Try to get low as possible
Good luck
Singapore dollar weighing down the British poundThe Singapore dollar has shown great strength for the past 12 months against the Great British pound, underpinned by the Singaporean economy growing 7.6% and expectations for it to continue growing the rest of this year. Adding to the strength of the Singapore dollar in recent weeks is China starting to lift its strict lockdowns, as China is Singapore’s third largest trading partner.
Looking at the weekly chart of the GBPSGD, we can easily see the strength of Singapore weighing this pair down. The BGPSGD has recently taken out the low from June 2020 and is possibly targeting the March 2020 next.
With an Aroon indicator on the chart of GBPSGD, we can look at the portions highlighted within the two circles and their corresponding trends in the chart above. The Aroon indicator is typically used for spotting trends and the strength of trends by following the movement of an orange ‘Up’ line and a Blue ‘Down’ line.
Within the first circle, the rising Up and Down lines suggest a weak trend for the corresponding chart. As such, the uptrend quickly petered out and entered a period of consolidation and a quicker reversal.
Within the second circle, we can see the Down line cross below the Up before reversing its trajectory. This movement in the Aroon indicator corresponds with the attempted bullish push in the GBPSGD. Once the Aroon lines reversed, The bullish push disappeared, and a strong bearishness entered the GBPSGD, and did so until the start of May. Currently, we can see that the two Aroon lines are separated by quite some distance. It may be worth keeping track of the Aroon lines to determine how close the GBPSGD wants to move toward that March 2020 low, if its downward trend holds.