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Greed

Should I Hold Longer Or Close With Profits....?Hello Traders 🙋‍♂️ I wanted to go over a valuable lesson in market psychology that I have learned repeatedly in my own experience. This is not an 'end all be all' strategy , advice, or lesson but perhaps an idea that you can take and make it what you want in your trading analysis. Its really easy to theorize about markets and what they should do, wether its a pattern your following, indicator, or institutional concepts. We can all look at charts and spot gigantic moves and think "WOW! Imagine those profits you could have had!" , in fact we can see this daily in our pursuit of our trading goals. But the reality is that in the exact moment of being in profits nothing is guaranteed! How many times have you said to yourself "Self - I'm holding this trade till the end of time" when your up 20 pips, only to have to smash back down and either stop you out at break even, or even worse, go negative and hit your stop loss? My guess is that if your reading this (or writing this) then the answer is all too often 🤣 So here is a solution... Psychology 1) Just agree with yourself that consistent and steady profits is better then "what if" 2) Find your signature exit for how you trade - "When do I know for certain I should close all positions" Practice & Reality Since its pretty easy to catch 20 pips in the FX world you should capitalize on this and take it over and over and over , compounding your profits, and minizing your losses (assuming your strategy is profitably) and to satisfy our greed and "what if" then leave a small partial open to see what happens, which leads me to the third and final part of this solution.... 3) Close 90% of your position at 15-20 pips - Move stop loss to break even & Leave 10% open for "What If" and to satisfy our greedy side. Making this agreement with yourself can and will increase your profits! I have written this statement 1) as a note to self after this week I "Could have had" 65+ pips , and 2) as an idea to myself others that its ok to make a living picking and chipping away at the huge mountain of gold in front of us piece by piece, rather then all at once I hope you find this useful, if you do please give a thumbs up and follow for more!
by renegadeforex
2
What goes up must come down. BTC has taken a ride since 2015, I watched from the sidelines as more and more people became overcome with the excitement of this new currency. The “gap” up’s when it took hold and blasted off to north of 20,000 then 30k then 40k, were unprecedented. I’ve been involved with investments since 1997 and I have seen nothing like this and won’t ever again. I do think bitcoin will eventually make the 100,000 mark, when that happens is any bodies guess. Healthy investments do not skyrocket to all time highs and stay there like this seems to have done. The “gaps” this needs to fill are down in the 11,000 range I believe? If these “gaps” per say don’t get filled, any move higher becomes incredibly dangerous for a landslide melt down. Every market in the world has seen this sort of behavior. Here is how big money managers think “buy when it’s low and sell when it’s high” I know that may seem Cliché, but it’s true in any investment market. What holds this coin price at its highs is continuous buying but not only continuous buying but a stable source of new buyers. When bitcoin reaches a high of highs after racing upwards that of a Saturn rocket it will surely endure the consequences of a parabolic climb which is a generational meltdown. We must remeber that China has been mining some 80% of the worlds bitcoin over the past 10 years..if this doesn’t scare anybody I don’t know where you live. If any populous or economy invests more than an alternative invenstment weighting in bitcoin or any other speculative investment, they risk destroying their entire economic system and collapsing. If one doesn’t see the automatic buying and selling movement and electronic support countermeasures big miners or holders of the coin take to ensure this parabolic soar to inevitable highs you aren’t looking close enough. Everybody risks losing and losing big. It seems the masses want bitcoin to reach enormous highs, preaching it will replace modern currency driving the price upwards of 100,000 per coin. I am a realist and while I do believe bitcoin and other crypto currencies will achieve great value and use in the future it will not replace the worlds fiat currencies. Be careful and realistic. If you’ve been hoddling your coins for years you have done very well for yourself yes, however, remeber how one “locks” in profits, they sell and hold “cash” or what ever stable fiat currency they live with. This is not a free ride and not everybody running this massive machine has good intentions. If China decides to capture and lock in profit at any given time, it will cause a cataclysmic disaster and melt down of an entire system. Don’t be caught holding the bag at the top. When PayPal said they were all in processing bitcoin it seemingly shot north with supersonic speeds. People who wouldn’t invent in an index fund for it was too much risk are now investing millions in something that seems too good to be true. I am not saying bitcoin will not be useful or even saying it won’t survive, I am simply saying be CAFEFUL and REALISTIC. This bubble has consequences just like the real estate financial bubble of the early 2000’s. The USA had the means at that time to inject trillions into a collapsing system...we have no more levers to pull or safety valves to open. I predict a gap cover in the 10,000-11,500 range before then skyrocketing to new highs in the 40-50,000 range before starting the fibbinaci cycle all over again. The last up cycle will be very evident by which the volume of sellers will spike to all time highs within minutes. That may be next month next year or in 5 years IDK....but it will happen. The stock market has stop gaps to ensure panic selling doesn’t destroy a healthy market, bitcoin has no such stop gaps or safety valves to ensure complete and total collapse of a system. And...the most important one. Bitcoin has no centralized governing body or enforcement to ensure criminals can’t steal or destroy a system in which so many have put faith. It’s the ultimate Dichotomy, Bitcoin excites so many because of its decentralized governing systems however those same Reasons we all “love to love” bitcoin could very well be the same reasons it sets up to cause global economic catastrophe. My prediction again is this...falls to fill CME gaps with fake trend reversals costing traders millions chasing the bottom but. Dollar cost average your buys and lock in your gains. 11,000 back up to 50,000 then back down to 24,000 before pushing up to 75,000. 100,000 is the price that triggers a global sell off meltdown and bring financial devistation to the greedy. Be careful out there. Diversify and have a plan.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by renderfy
1
There are no emotional problem in reality...???There are no EMOTIONAL PROBLEM in reality. The problem, you are facing is you do not have any back-tested STRATEGY/SKIL L of identifying what if I do will I get the trades. Another words, you are trying to search a fallen needle in entire city in a limited time. You don’t know what to trade? Which stock(trade) to go for shorting? Should I have to select Short selling or long? Even If I Select at what time should I enter & then exit? => But time is ticking away , worry, concern, , apprehensiveness, consternation, uneasiness, fearfulness, disquiet, fretfulness, agitation, angst, nervousness, tension, stress, misgiving, foreboding, suspense etc.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Trade-Technique
19
Tutorial: PC-Indicator - Spar_maDeutsche Version Unterhalb. English version: This indicator is supposed to be another tool to recognize when a panic movement has begun and also ended. Of course, there are other indicators that work very well, but this can also help to identify the timeframe. Description of for using the indicator with the example of the panic sell-off in March: Before the selloff started, two areas can be identified in which the market is being tested. This is when at the same time, the price intersects with the 21 moving average and the put / call indicator. This indicates that something could be wrong (no guarantee, just an indicator). This happened first (marked with 1) when the virus was discovered: Few who had been informed had any idea what might happen. The second "drop" (marked 2) happened when it was publicly announced that such a virus existed. The third time the panic broke out (marked 3) long after the virus was known. The portfolios should have been hedged here at the latest. Shortly before the yellow marking the virus was reported daily and maximum panic were spread. This was the point at which the hedge could theoretically be ended (if you have the courage to do so). However, I myself waited until the 21st and the indicator were clearly broken. This indicator could have helped to save a loss in value of the portfolio by at least 17%. I hope this indicator can continue to perform as well. Please leave a like and subscribe if you are interested in further trading ideas from me. Name of the indicator: “PC-Indicator - Spar_ma” That’s my opinion and should be treated like it. No trade advice! ______________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Version: Dieser Indikator soll ein weiteres Tool sein um erkennen zu können, wann eine panische Bewegung beendet ist. Natürlich gibt es weitere Indikatoren die sehr gut funktionieren, dieser kann jedoch zusätzlich dabei helfen zu erkennen wann es soweit ist. Beschreibung des Indikators an Beispiel des Panischen sell-offs im März: Bereits vor beginn sind zwei Bereiche zu erkennen, an denen der Markt getestet wird. Dabei kreuzen sich gleichzeitig der Kurs mit dem 21-gleitendem Durchschnitt und dem Put-/Call- Indikator. Das lässt darauf zurückführen, dass etwas kommen könnte. Dies geschah zuerst (mit 1 gekennzeichnet) bei der Entdeckung des Virus: Wenige die Informiert wahren, jedoch ahnten was passieren könnte. Der zweite „Drop“ (mit 2 gekennzeichnet) geschah als öffentlich bekannt gegeben wurde, dass ein solches Virus existiert. Beim dritten Mal brach die Panic aus (mit 3 gekennzeichnet), lange nachdem dieser Virus bekannt gewesen war. Spätestens hier sollte das Konto gehedged worden sein. Erst kurz vor der gelben Markierung wurde täglich vom Virus berichtet und maximale Panic verbreitet. Dies war der Zeitpunkt an dem theoretisch der Hedge beendet werden konnte (wenn man den Mut dazu hat). Ich selbst habe allerdings noch gewartet bis der 21ger und auch der Indikator klar durchbrochen wurde. Dieser Indikator hätte dabei helfen können einen Wertverlust des Kontos um mindestens 17% ersparen zu können. Ich hoffe dieser Indikator kann weiterhin so gut performen. Bitte lasst ein like da und abonniert mich, falls Ihr Interesse an weiteren trading-ideen von mir habt. Name des Indikators: “PC-Indicator – Spar_ma” Dies ist nur meine persönliche Meinung und sollte auch so betrachtet werden. Dies ist keine Handelsempfehlung.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by spar_ma
HODL! but not to your crypto...It is just an addition to my previous BTCUSD idea which was more based on RSI indicator. Here we have not 1, not 2 but 4 different resistances: the first and the most obvious one comes from the previous ATH, the second and the third one comes from the upper levels of the upward channels 1 & 2. The forth resistance presents itself in the RSI - currently we are stuck at 84 value. But wait, there's more: Greed and Fear index is 95 which is crazy even for Bitcoin (this index has never seen bigger numbers). And hey, we still have to see at least 25% correction and touch 20 weeks MA.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Detri_Mantela
Baghodlers wiped out at the bottom as usual + time to go to ath***************** Part 1: An expensive but valuable lesson for Bitcoin bulls ***************** I have not heard much from Bitcoin "investors" in the past 12 months. This is what I kept repeating back then (2018-2019): " The bear market is not over/2019 is a fake bull market (hundreds of them laughed at me) They will refuse to sell until Bitcoin goes into panic mode and there is extreme violent selling, THEN they will disappear (maybe a bit before maybe a bit later) You won't hear again from them They will miss the actual next bull market " And what did happen? Haven't heard from them since then 😏 A few people had youtube channels so we can see them closing them, also not posting anymore, and a few have at least made a goodbye video. I think the bulk really left in Q4 2019 - Q1 2020. Mostly during the scaaaary selling. I am not making this up. You can view my past ideas. Here is the last BTC idea that got a lot of attention from haters calling me an idiot. Feb 21. 54 comments. After this it stopped. I was not getting dozens of hate comments anymore. They just went poof. Who's the idiot now? Checking some profiles, no ideas in 7 months I wonder why. Oh someone is bullish on alts that are down and never going up. I posted an alarmist idea in March 2019 when Bitcoin was really down and bagholders were very scared. The amount of hatred I got was interesting. I got even way more than usual. They were in anxiety mode. And they are all gone. Markets are very good at finding peoples breaking point. Bitcoin found crypto investors breaking point. A very valuable lesson. Some of them might return to trading in the future, like some people came back "older and wiser" after getting burned during the dot-com bubble. And the cycle will repeat itself endlessly. This is actually the most Bitcoin has falling in 24 hours at least since 2013. On Bitfinex, bottom 2 was more scary. Still, the March 2020 scare was a 50% drop in 24 hours and this never happened before as far as I know. Not only was it brutal but there was a first part with a massive drop in a couple of hours then a break where baggies were relieved for sure "the worse it over", and then just a few hours later they got hit with another brutal candle that went much further down. The 2013-2015 bear market ended with 30% drops "only". For sure Bitcoin bulls panicked and saw it going straight to zero "this is it", "it's the end". They clearly were an over emotional bunch. Glad most of them are gone. I want to look at it one more time. It feels good to. You know I tried catching the bottom but that was ridiculous Posted these ideas 3 days apart (Bitcoin going to zero and Bitcoin going to 10,000 when it was at 8300): ***************** Part 2: Bitcoin long target reached ***************** Follow up to this: Got to target but does not mean it is over. European regulators banning bitcoin cfd right when the bagholders were about to make some money 👍 So typical and therefore so predictable People can keep criticizing me insult me but I will keep being right Already 8.5R here! This means it would cover 8 losses. I could be the biggest fool and lost 8 times in a row and still come out ahead. And it's just the start imo. Because I am waiting for the vertical move and I have no seen it yet. My trailing stop is at 4R right now.
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by MrRenev
5
Bitcoin Dominance Answers: Altcoin SZN, or another DEAD SZNHey! This is price action analysis for BTC.D (bitcoin dominance over altcoins). During next couple of month there is an opportunity for short-term alt season, but we need to see all options. So importance level are at 66.66% dominance, if price going to break one we going to see huge dump of alts, I can say -50% from current prices over couple of months. Another hand is more likely we will get an short alt season if btc.d% break down from 65% towards 62.20% this will make alts huge pump. Speaking from my experience it might be over 2x-5x on certain coins/tokens Check the chart and if you like the visuals, let me know by pressing like. Stay tuned! BR, Artem Shevelev
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by ArShevelev
11
BTC Long Closed To anyone reading... I have sold all my BTC yesterday/today. While it is an exciting time, we must not forget what the world is currently dealing with. “Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.” Remember, when the rug pull happens, all will scramble to sell, and this process can take some time. We were right, and BTC has produced great gains for me many times. In my opinion, we will run out of steam soon, considering all the economic events coming up. Tomorrow could be the final blow-off top, and if one thing is certain, you do not want to end up on the downside of BTC. Look at your profits and be content and proud; it is always better to have your profits safe as the feeling of watching it go is truly hard to take. Before greed and ego take over, remember there is no true get rich quick scheme and if there was, we would all be rich. Whenever the feeling of greed takes over, sit back and think about how long the money has taken to accumulate whatever the career. It is not easy come easy go it is only easy to go in this world. Looking back at 2017, it is easy to go wow, they made so much money, but what about those who didn't sell or couldn't sell in time. Optimism is great, but reality hits much harder. GL to all and hope you find success
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by KML6
6
The adventures of leveraged naked ootm option sellersAh the famous "free money" option sellers. Ah the famous strangle strategy. Option sellers. Ok. Naked option sellers. Sooo...? Way out of the money naked option sellers. Let me think... Way out of the money strangle naked option sellers. Getting good. Ultra Leveraged Way Out Of The Money Strangle Naked Option Sellers. Oh boy. Ultra Leveraged Way Out Of The Money Strangle Naked Option Sellers That Never Cut Their Losses. Not fair for other Darwin award contestants!. They have to be doing it on purpose. A strangle is an absolutely garbage strategy where the writer sells (slightly) out of the money options on both sides. The maximum profit happens when the price stays between both strike rates. Not going to make a full explanation and a drawing, but what is important is it involves option sellers that take small premiums win very often but are at high to unlimited risk. The premium basically means that even if the price goes against you a bit you are still in the green. Out of the money means you have even more breathing space before the price gets to a losing area, and then additionally you have the opposite side premium as additional "breathing room", which in all means the price has to move very much for you to even start being worried. But when it goes that far... careful. Depending on how out of the money the option is the premium can get pretty low... So the option seller won't make alot of money. There is no free lunch. A summary of those strategy is "Picking up pennies in front of freight trains." Ok here is a drawing xd A few people use this, and I know it is taught by Tom Sosnoff that runs a brokerage. You might recognize him in some old documentary & interviews about the 1987 (he was a market maker obligated to buy people bags and "add to loser" and they all were running out of liquidity & had to beg banks for more money so the whole system would not collapse). He is the creator of thinkorswim that he sold to TD Ameritrade for a big bag of money. He published a video recently where he bashed the robinhood effect where down synd- er I mean young credulous investors (and legends like Portnoy) are getting enabled to gamble on risky & complex products they do not understand. Oh wait no he praised it all, said it was wonderful and a new paradigm. Sad. "Hurray optimism" (until the suicide). Not sure what my opinion of him is right now. On the long run those strangle work, and ... well I can't say any idiot can do those clearly with all the clowns blowing up ... but it does not require any prediction ability (you are better off if you can predict low volatility thought), it is maybe complex to understand for novices at first but rather "easy". Someone running such a strategy will often win, and get consistant profits, but the profits are just... small. And funds or individuals using this strategy have to be prepared for big moves that sometimes happen and have a plan to hedge at some point. Tom Sosnoff tells people to "trade small trade often" (another broker telling people to trade often gee didn't expect that). Since this strategy makes little profit, fools have a tendancy to use leverage, sometimes alot. Warren Buffet once said, or more than once, way more, that leverage was the best way to wipe out your wealth. Especially when mixed with ignorance. He uses leverage himself, but not like this, not like these guys... The only way I see leverage maybe making sense with those strategies is say you make 1% a year, so you'd put 90% of your money in a mix of equity indices & risk free with low correlation, then use 10 leverage on the remaining 10% that is used to write options, keep risk managed, so then you make 10% on the 10% and if something goes real wrong you have deep pockets, 9 times the amount... Using a bit or even 2-3 times more capital and more leverage too would not even result in getting wiped out for those that did. They REALLY asked for it. There are plenty of naked option sellers that got wiped out, included hyped or famous ones. Naked selling means you do not own the underlying (so if you never buy until the client exercises his right you will have to first buy the asset at whatever price, or have to buy it from him if he is short potentially at a much higher price than the market price). James Cordier from OptionSellers dot com, Victor Niederhoffer, Karen Supertrader, LJM Preservation And Growth Fund (HAHAHAHA they have a great sense of humor). James Cordier used way out of the money options, so it would look something like that: Wow! We found the holy grail! You cannot lose! He really got zero sympathy, and even his clients did not get much. They either knew it was risky or did not bother how to even put this they did not even bother looking at was option selling was somehow? James Cordier was making tiny profits with huge risk, had very high winrates, and because he made little profits he used extreme leverage to get any significant amount out. He is the epitome of the concept "Picking pennies in front of a freight train". They should use his picture in encyclopedias. Those leverages aren't even poor risk management at that point we reached another stage. Seriously this guy is an absolute psychopath. Victor Niederhoffer used to be a rather famous fund guy, he worked with Soros, he was rather popular I think he wrote in big journals, probably was on tv regularly. He was "one of the best" making 30% a year for 20 years, famous people held him in high regard, he was sort of a mentor to guys that are famous today. But he missed a few braincells. He sold a big amount of naked puts in 1997 then the market crashed. Rekt. Another "myfxbook" loser. Maybe he was just bad all along and got lucky for 20 long years. Outlier. He probably whine that it was just "20 sigma bad luck". He blew up again 10 years later 😂. Rekt by the trash securities crisis of 2007. Oh ye another "free money one". If you saw the movie "the big short" you might remember scenes where bankers were laughing and partying at the "idiots that bought options against CDO/MBS". He was not a banker himself so Bush did not use taxpayer money to bail him out. He was not unlucky actually, he was very lucky to have lasted 20 years the previous time. Dumb people often have Dunning Kruger... Karen Supertrader was a random old lady that got into the Sosnoff noob strategy. It is very hard to lose money while keeping it small with that one, so idk I guess this is why he pitches it to complete noobs that would all become day traders and lose their money quickly. Hey they'd just lose their money otherwise, at least here they are making a little. It is true, can't even blame him he is maybe saving noobs. Should just let natural selection do its job just like getting rich slow is actually not slower, helping people is not actually helping. She was an outlier in a normal distribution, mistook that for greatness, and started a fund managing to get idiots to invest hundreds of million. 150 I think. She ended up losing if I recall a good 50 million, hide the losses as unrealized (which she rolled over each month and used new positions to offset), while still collecting fees. I remember seing her interview on how great she was and thinking "ye give it a little while" and then doing some research, and oh ye blew up haha. Didn't see that coming. I don't get people brains. If people use certain strategies, it is mathematically impossible, literally impossible, they can get certain returns without taking huge risk or committing fraud. Why is it so hard for the creatures on this planet (especially regulators) to comprehend? It is physically impossible. Proven. This is not economy or climate science where randos come up with their ooga booga opinions and apocalyptic calls, mathematical PROOF means it is true period. Really blows my mind. How are all those mouth breathers even alive? If a strategy no matter what is contained in Upper Bound Lower Bound and we are outside of the bounds it's not because of divine intervention or a parallel universe. I don't even know how they think. Lmao I crack up when I try to imagine their thought process. It's like the market moves 10% in a month, and someone tells you they simply bought & held, made 60%, and used no leverage. And some people are stupid enough to think this is possible??????????????????????????????????????? Wow. LJM Preservation And Growth is just the funniest. "Preservation" in the name, then goes to the option selling casino with infinite leverage. People trusted it blindly because it has preservation in the name? XD Reminds me of some groups in the USA self proclaimed "good guys". Idiots that fall for this get the karma they deserve. You can find stories and read about it on the internet it is all over the place. The best bits is how they always find excuses. The fund came up with "there is no way we could have predicted the 911 attacks". The stupidity of this excuse is really beyond. I don't even know where to start. Well I don't think I need to explain. They clearly were in the wrong business entirely. "Oh no there are risks in the business" 😂 One of optionsellers client shared a google doc of his 1 million (in total) portfolio, here it is, it goes from left to right day by day so you can see how the positions evolve and how James Cordier holds onto his losers forever, until death pulls them apart. docs.google.com You can find the second to last idea James Cordier published on seeking alpha here: seekingalpha.com He got all excited at the "free money" (greed & euphoria) and then sh** his pants (fear), held the bags, blew up. The he was less excited (pain regret sorrow etc). Emotions -> Emotions -> Emotions. Mistakes -> Mistakes -> Mistakes. Like a baws. And the guy had 20 years experience or so. His last idea was a short on coffee and he was very right. Should have just went short for real with leverage since he was gambling anyway rather than sell for "only" 1.8 million. The website has his ideas since 2009. You know these people I think they just hate losing. He probably was right often enough but I am not going to backtest his ideas got better things to do (got a new zombie game to try haven't been able to play games in weeks because idk they bore me but at the same time I really need a distraction I must be alone having to force myself to play games rather than the other way around). It is not the case for all of them of course, but I am sure alot would make money without having to use 50 leverage if they just applied their analysis and accepted to take the risks, rather than look for some really stupid trick to always win. As a speculator you get rewarded for absorbing risk/volatility. Sometimes down sometimes up, but on average more up than down. How can some people be in the business, and not as market makers or arbitragers or brokers, for 20 or 30 years and still look for "sure thing" strategies and be afraid of taking a loser? Who cares if the portfolio moves a bit in 10 or 20 years the end result is what will matter. It is clearly not for every one. They should know better and be prepared for the "big events", but they go pavlov brainwash and emotional and feel good about it, as long as it has not happened they think it won't (and even once it does some don't even learn and think they really fell under the wrath of god and did nothing wrong as demonstrated by Victor Niederhoffer, seriously how dumb is this guy? I don't have a quarck of respect for him.) If you are able to survive those big events, accept small drawdowns and they do not cause you to make mistakes, you are already ahead of many. Another obstacle to be making money in this game. When you "have it" it really seems like a no brainer, but yes there really are alot of people unable to climb that obstacle. Aren't 90% of casual investors bagholders? With "strong hands". So afraid to take a loss. Strong hands ye right, weak chins. The receding chins are using computers now so they don't piss themselves, but I don't think the computers will be able to do everything, just the small day trading. If we get to the point computers can go THAT far to predict the future weeks away (not just M5 stat arb etc) we won't even need markets anymore anyway, and we'll be too busy visiting other galaxies xd Imagine science without all the dogmas and politics. Imagine politics without all the politics. And so on. I ain't worried. My tip to profitable speculators: learn to invest, find a passive income stream, you never know if you'll still be making money in 10 years, but don't be too worried all opportunities just disappear (unless communism). Yes you never know if it is a pullback or the end, it is easy to look at it in hindsight compared to being in it and think "oh it just goes up".
Editors' picks
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by MrRenev
6
BRACE! TESLA: may correct soon. Pure greed has driven TESLA to ridiculous heights. Robinhoods are in this market. Most of them from China. Parabolic expansions tend to fall - sometimes very quickly. Stay tuned. Stay safe. Wash your hands and face! 😂 Eat veg! LOL. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, or miss opportunity, kindly sue yourself.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Captain_Walker
6
Hope. 🙏🏻 Fear. 😱 Greed. 🤑 Welcome, guys! 😊Today I wanna talk with you about our feelings and emotions💋💋💋 💥 Fear of falling prices provokes a sell , and the opportunity to lose chance to make monney leads to an unreasonable buy .💥              ⚡Such pernicious emotion like greed is a manifestation of the trader’s arrogance and his thirst for a good income as soon as possible, which also provokes the unfoundedness of transactions.🤷🏻‍♀️         Many psychologists and scientists do a lot of research in the study of human emotions and feelings, the results of which show the ability to control their emotions. 💪🏻 In trading, managing emotions is a very necessary. 💪🏻 Let's consider three seemingly simple emotions on which a trader’s work in the market depends in more detail: 📌Fear 📌Hope 📌Greed 😱 The role of fear in trading 😱         In fact, fear plays a significant role in the market. Fear often deprives the trader of the opportunity to earn money, but also saving him from making fatal decisions. The emotion of fear often serves as a kind of "brake" for the trader.        A frightened trader is obsessed with the adverse aspects of trading. Fear of losing money generates a lot of other negative emotions in your head. 🤑 Trader's greed would destroy. 🤑 Greed is a disastrous and dangerous feeling, especially for a trader. The prevalence of greed rarely can help to achieve the desired result. It depriving people of the ability to think soberly and objectively. Often, having felt success, a trader wants to earn more and more by making the following mistakes: ❗ Untimely exit from the transaction ❗ Hold position more then you need ❗ Overstatement of risks 🙏🏻 Hope is the last thing to die 🙏🏻 Of all three emotions, most market participants live with hope. This emotion is completely opposite to fear, because its presence affects the positive thinking of the outcome of the trade. In moments of hope, the thinking of market participants is aimed at making profit, not losing it. People trade in order to achieve success and financial stability, taking income from the market. The circle of such people was divided into optimists and pessimists, absorbed in hope, fear and greed, only to different degrees. One way or another, an overabundance of these emotions can lead to losses . The best option is to find the “golden mean” and learn how to manage your emotions.💪🏻💪🏻💪🏻 😊😊I hope you enjoyed my post, don't forget to support me with like 🌞, subscribe,for don't get lost!💋 Below are links to my previous ideas👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 Stay with me🌞 Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
23
Riding the Bears For a Little TOO LONG :( - 04/30/20 RECAPHi traders, Thursday was a pretty decent up day, ruined only by a bit of greed from my side in the AMD Short trade. But even after missing the best exit of the day, I squeezed a little extra from my typical RRR setting. The Trades: 1) NEO - LONG @28.35 - Unusual situation that I decided to go LONG into on the breakout pattern above 28.32. Sadly after the market pushing lower, NEO eventually gave in. -1.1% 2) AMD - SHORT @53.08 - A typical breakdown formation that stopped 2 cents shy of my hard-set PT so I exited manually before close. +2.24% *In my ID trades, I risk 1% of the account per trade and go for 2% (2:1 RRR ). Sometimes I adapt a little bit as you can see in the trades' description.* Total PnL for the day: +1.14% Total PnL for the week: +1.09% Good trades, Tom | FINEIGHT
AMEX:SPY
by Fineight
"Be greedy when others are fearful" Warren Buffet - SPXLately, I have been feeling quite greedy because I see fear across all markets. I stand by what Warren has to say about the markets. Ask yourself "if 70% of people are bearish for a great depression 2.0 will it happen yet?" Ask yourself "Do I feel fear or greed when others are fearful?" I bet he's buying entire companies right now and you guys are panic selling your retail investments. I have a diagram showing the simple truth about market psychology (smart money vs dumb money) So again ask yourself "Who am I?" Stay safe stay healthy and stay profitable. - Dalin Anderson
TVC:SPXLong
by High_Altitude_Investing
12
The Secrets to Forex & Protecting Your CarryYou must read the prior articles first. If this was a video game you would probably be trying to skip the conversation boxes at this point. Don't try to speedrun this, you'll die at the boss. --------------------------------------- I'm sure you're tired of all the poetry and want to get straight to the money. Money, after all, is the best form of entertainment. Now, last time we left off with timeframes and carry conditions, key components of the overall risk management message I want to get across. I figured that most retail traders operate on multiday/multiweek positions. Most know next to nothing about carry risk or other unique risks present only for non-intraday traders. If you intend to hold positions across several weeks/months (see pt. 3 for the definition), then this section is the most important of all the articles to come. In addition, I recommend doing additional research, especially if you have a job, are in schooling, or other responsibilities; because understanding this risk (and potential reward) can be very beneficial for those with limited time to spend. Part 1: Country-level Assets All wealthy people own assets. Assets can appreciate. If you 'own' a lot, you are, by default, wealthy. At least, for a brief moment in time. When you trade in forex, you are investing in a type of asset underwritten by a 'country' and paired with a similar underlying. The country creates the supply, and sets minimum standards in demand via tax law. Like businesses with stocks, countries with currencies and bonds can default, and flatline, leading to a breadline utopia. Inversely, they can also grow, and produce something of market value; and then provide returns to everyone that bet something on them. Some countries are flailing about, some countries are stable, and some are growing with seemingly no obstacles in sight. Which one would you want to invest in? Remember the dividend question? Before some median-salary economist gets in a huff, yes it's not always as simple as 'growing country = growing interest rates.' But here's what's important for retail traders: Central banks manage these 'country-level' assets with an evolving toolbox to variable acclaim. I recommend doing your own research into that topic, because it's too far outside the scope of these articles, and there are no unified verdicts on the 'science' behind any of it. The important thing to understand is that when you invest in these country-level assets, some countries demand a fee rate, and some offer a dividend rate. THAT'S IT. Room temperature or higher IQs will get this. Part 2: Free to Play vs Fees to Play You can find these rates by googling: 'central bank interest rates.' Those negative rates are FEES TO PLAY. Zero or higher is FREE TO PLAY. If you hold currency at a broker, these rates are realized and charged or credited to your market position at the daily rollover event. This occurs at the end of the 24hr cycle set to City time. So if you hold positions over 24hr cycles, you will be charged or credited REAL MONEY (no delivery gimmicks). Now, you can't trade currency in isolation in forex, it's always in the form of a pair. In case you haven't figured this out yet, the forex trader is the type of player these articles are designed for. This means, in lazy phrasing, that you are betting on the demand for the money (investor appeal) of one country AGAINST another. If you want to invest in a country as is, you can opt for national or municipal bonds, but note they do have slightly different carry conditions. But to stay on target, what do you think happens when you match a higher rate with a lower rate? The USD is a higher rate than the JPY. The USD is free to play, the JPY charges a fee to play. When you open a position in the market, you are FUNDING one of those currencies (basically against the other). This means you are liable to the interest rate gap. Brokers have an unnecessarily complicated explanation for why they HAVE to pay you money (or take your money) even though price action may not technically move from 23:59 to 00:01. They want to balance the books in a way they are comfortable with, because they have lots of liabilities with major liquidity providers. The net takeaway is that most brokers will generally charge or credit based on the interest rate gap between the currencies in your selected pair. So carry conditions are relevant accross most brokers unless you have a based Islamic account. Note that most brokers have a separate fee (usually .25%), which means if the interest rates are equal then you still get charged at rollover. There are other subtractions brokers will make as well (never in your favor), sometimes cutting deep in the rate gap. Unsurprisingly, they want to pay you as little as possible; in some cases, you can be charged on rollover regardless of gap or position direction. This is why you need to check the 'specification' of the pair in your MT4 to see the swap (or use a calculator provided by your broker.) Some brokers have special rules for emerging currencies with high rates like 8%, other brokers may offer advantages for trading these depending on their business structure. Wed to Thurs rollover is a x3 event , basically to make up for the lack of a rollover event on Sat and Sun night. You're probably wondering why these 'small percents' matter. After all, you're in forex to make highly leveraged internet magic money, not some quarterly dividend payment like your boomer parents. Part 3: Make America Think Again But it's just pennies a day right, who cares? Carry conditions can cost or credit you pennies a day or thousands of dollars a day, depending on the size of your position or the pair in play. On some pairs, you can make 15~ USD a day with just 1 lot in the market. That's over 5k a year USD. That's the equivalent of 540 pips a year, WITH 1 LOT ON 1 PAIR. And all you have to do, is fund a high rate currency bet against a low rate currency on a popular broker. That's it. No technical moonworshipping required. No stalking some coin startups social media for pump and dump schemes. No staying up all night worrying about the West going to war with Iran because you longed the Euro before dinner. It's the opposite of the coin flip, its coin printing. Many retail traders are from developing and emerging countries, it can be an excellent opportunity for men and women of all ages. Its like working at Wall Street and sending the remittances back, all from the ease of your home; without any political, religious, cultural, or economic barriers to get in your way. Sure it's not really that convenient. But the analogy would've been really cool if it worked. So what can happen, for example. At .40 lots for a full position, you would net 1.80 USD a day. Assuming 2 weeks to fill a position at optimal entry points (we'll talk about this later), and a remaining 2.5 month duration (5 fortnites), you net about 130 from carry credit payments during that trade period (1/4 a year), and be able to close with a very profitable or at least at a net-positive price level. Keep in mind, the average yearly takehome is anywhere from 2k-10k in developing countries. 1.8 a day can represent significant supplimentary income, and you only need 100-250 (in USD equivalent value) to support margin at most brokers. You could reinvest those winnings over the course of the first year and start the next year earning 7-8 USD a day. Now some of you might have more cash to waste. With a career in a developed country, maybe you have 25-50k to responsibly throw around in your 20s, no family, STEM job, good rent contract, little student debt, etc. We can upgrade that position size to 4 to 8 lots. 18-37 USD per day. You'll be doubling (before tax) your initial capital every 4 years. Part 4: Fields of Pink But wait, what if you have the opposite position? You fund a low rate currency against a high rate currency, or your trash broker demands fees on both. Your inverted head and shoulders 4h pattern looks (and smells) great, and you're ready to long the EURUSD. You plan to hold this one for a month at least, until it hits some absolute number like 1.200 (because it's the fifth wave in some model a statistician invented 40 years ago), and therefore, must happen. You decided your 'RR' would be 3 to 1, a 150 pip stop loss and a 450 take profit. You're already taking a tendie loan out at KFC in anticipation of a big win down the line. Meanwhile, you're losing 13 dollars a day (or let's say 0.5-2 pips worth of loss), guaranteed. Because you're paying a fee to play, while taking a bet that fails at a near 50% rate (much higher for retail), while throwing away weeks/months of time in anticipation of a result/delivery (capital opportunity cost). Now, if you had ten thousand years of nutritionally deficient ancestors, I can't blame you for this decision-making. But most of us haven't. So here it is, another forex secret: Quite simply, there are pairs the vast majority of you shouldn't be trading, and that includes majors with poor carry conditions (losers both ways with rollover). Pairs like CHFJPY, or any pair that has you longing the JPY or CHF (and usually EUR). Betting against the USD is another insured risk, when looking at majors. It doesn't mean you should never fund a low rate against a high rate, but you need to think in terms of FEES. Is it worth paying a daily fee to make this trade? Now, for the greedy. You'll need to do your own research, to decide if hunting extremely high rates on emerging/exotic currencies is the best course for you and your margin, of if settling with minimal (but not negative) rates on crosses or other majors is good enough for your strategy. My guidance is to look into emerging currencies if you don't have much time to trade daily (someone with a full-time job or family) or you don't intend to sink 1,000s of hours into mastering the intra-day trade (nightmare mode). Part 5: Washington Consensus Trading with carry conditions in mind can even be advantageous compared to other asset classes (like stocks or corporate bonds). It's like trading a high yield junk bond, only you have far less risk from defaults. What's a safer institution? Some 5 month-old, toothbrush-sharing, 10 slide company with 8 employees, or the full might of a nationstate? Sure, a few nationstates have defaulted in modern history. The upside is you usually have lots of heads-up, because default tends to be political in nature. That is, if you're a nation in need of cash, you can always get a loan. It's simply a matter of if the terms are politically acceptable for your faction. This all factors into the 'heads-up' period, alerting you to pull out or reverse your position. The US tends to sanction them beforehand (conveniently) kicking you out of those markets ahead of total economic disaster. The complete opposite occurs with some shady junk bond at 15%, where the company disappears overnight. Companies fail for the smallest things, they fail all the time, and the world goes on. A country failing is always geopolitical in nature and market rules about fair play are thrown out the window. This is an intrinsic advantage to forex and global macro tradables in general. I'll talk more about the future risk of national defaults and the utility and primacy of forex as an asset class in the final article. So beyond the obvious consideration, which is to fund a high rate currency against a low rate; what pairs should you trade and how else could you mind carry conditions while holding a long term position? Should you stick to emerging (exotic) currencies against safe-haven currencies? IE, you only short the EURMXN or fund against the CHF? And what indicators/models (from article pt.2) should you use to achieve the safest average price entry? Part 6: Not All Edges are Sharpe Forex is highly volatile, so you may have an advantage in the carry conditions, but suffer a net loss from a poor initial position when you decide to close. A currency with a negative rate could move against you, bigly. Remember, the future holds unlimited risk. But the distinction here (as mentioned in the prior article), is the resilient value in understanding that contracts can have insured risk outcomes. Cost/benefits that are legally settled (from the past) at the point of opening position and at the rollover event, even if brokers tinker with the point payouts, the 'deal' is still there in some form. Here's a poorly kept institutional secret, greed often drives the price in the direction of the higher interest rate currency in a pair over multi-month periods, so this doesn't really matter. Wealthy investors are greedy for higher payouts from emerging countries: where labor is cheaper, new factories spring up all the time, and real estate can be opportune. Part 7: Bat Soup vs the Fortune 500 Old school risk theory in markets argues that high volatility = high risk, but in recent years it has evolved beyond such mathematical explanations, especially as consecutive market challenges broke paradigms. Boomers are slow learners, but they adapt quickly when they start losing money. The subprime crisis cost them big time. And it's true today for our sniffle pandemic. It's simple: On high timeframes across longer-term positions, macroeconomics and geopolitics reign supreme. This isn't just a forex rule. This has been true since the dawn of markets in human society, it is true today, and it will be true in the end. Regulation and interest rates are variables that follow those leaders (not precede). That is, their behavior is shaped by the first two; macro and geopolitics. Think about COVID-19. Look what a few bats and one strange wet market did this world. Macroeconomics and geopolitics produce basic patterns in the human brain that propagate through our societies as two different frequencies: the short wavelength called fear or the long wavelength called security (interpreted in complex ways by players in markets). These are filtered by timezones, languages, civilizational and organizational biases, technology, individual upbringings, and the incumbency of delusion and greed. Nanoseconds, or years later, this all gets represented as a market outcome on a chart. Amazing that people spend so much time analyzing the chaotic patterns of some shit on a floor instead of what was on the menu last night, when they try to understand what went wrong. So if you can understand markets during these strong periods of psychological stress, and during soft periods of algorithm auctioning and market making (call it ranging), then you can sail all the seas and survive all the storms. This is where concepts like seasonality, ATR, regressions, psychological origination, hedging, news trading, major moving averages, and others come into play. In the coming weeks, I'll start to break down the major components of those, and where the center of price gravity and extremes are for these higher timeframe, longer-term positions. So you can find the optimal entry opportunities for longer-term trades, while also taking advantage or hedging against carry conditions. It's time to start charting the course.
Education
by CountofCoins
dump befor pump :)This route can happen !! In the current situation it can support 4800 lambs and then resist resistance 6950 I predict that later power gain in the 4800-5200 level could break this important resistance. And enter channel 7000, the important resistance of channel 7500 that can emotionally up to 8200 after that we After these steps, everything will be ready for a bigger crash and it can be said that the range of 3300-2600 will not be out of the question. I'm updating the chart to see when the main crash happened And I think the next uptrend is going to be eroding lets see whats will happen fear is every where put stops and be safe trader ;)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by avidena079
PURE ADDICTION! To be exploited. Yep - the algos play out the addicitons of their masters to cheap money: low interest rates, REPO pumping, and the implicit guarantee from the FED. But an itty bitty virus that disrespects world leaders, has everybody flummoxed and reaching for safe havens. In this screencast I show a bit of algo action and some smaller time frame trends which can last for over a day - quite lucrative. I've adapted to the vacillations of the market as I can't see the sense in waiting ages for decent profits when there is loads of lovely volatility within trend envelopes to exploit in lower time frames. If I can exploit a move of 100 - 200 points in a day or two I think that's fair enough. The greed and hope in these markets have created lovely opportunities - which can be exploited with the right level of discipline.
FOREXCOM:US30Short
by Captain_Walker