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NZDUSD: RBNZ On The WayThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely give the Kiwi a boost of volatility in the upcoming Asia session with its latest statement on monetary policy. Expectations are for no change this month as recent economic data has been net positive, and as they wait to see the full extent of damage the COVID-19 is set to do to the world economy. The scenario to watch out for is a more dovish-than-expected RBNZ and reversal pattern back to the downtrend after the event for the bearish market. For the bullish bias, any rhetoric lowering the odds of a potential rate cut this year will likely draw in buying support for the Kiwi, at least for the short-term as recent sessions have shown global positive risk sentiment as the main driver for the financial market. One news which might have earlier sparked some volatility on comdolls could be "WHO's Tedros, the first vaccine for COVID-19 (coronavirus) could be ready in 18 months".
by jessi061
GBPUSD: Market Outlook, Plan and Probabilities Future Price MoveU.K.’s first GDP reading, which is expected at 0.0% after a 0.4% reading in Q3 2019. If weak expectations then we could see GBP/USD drop below its 1.2875 weekly lows (weekly pivot s1 level) and maybe even make a run for the lower s2 or beyond. This is still possible given Cable’s daily ATR and its move so far today. If today’s data dump allows the BOE to avoid the dove camp for a while longer, then Cable could revisit its 1.2970 broken support before submitting to other economic catalysts. Speaking of, Fed’s Powell will talk economy in D.C. during the U.S. session. He will likely repeat the Fed’s growth optimism and concerns over low inflation but traders will also want to hear about the impact of Coronavirus and maybe his reaction to Trump’s latest calls for lower interest rates.
by jessi061
ridethepig | EUR Spot Commentary 2020.02.03After managing to retrace most of Friday's rally we are going to open up the Weekly flows for EURUSD; EUR saw notable month end demand as smart money understands the shift behind the curtain at the ECB. The highs in this are going to be capped at the 1.12 handle with main targets 1.125x and anything beyond this would have to come from the USD side at this point. Before we dig any deeper into the flows lets quickly recap the charts we are tracking: On the Macro side: For the Long-Term Technical diagram: For the Mid-Term Technical diagram: The DXY Monthly chart: The virus driven risk via growth slowdown in China is showing no signs of abating, it will impact Europe directly and mean we need to run further reviews on the impact before making a decision around whether outlooks need changing. The PBOC are attempting to stop the bleeding, technically this should reach 1.125 as a minimum flow. It will be difficult to make any concrete changes in the mid and long term charts without understanding more around the impact. For now the levels to track are 1.104x and 1.125x. Good luck all those in EURUSD, I remain bullish and lean towards the 1.125x move completing. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
AUDUSD Long Bias Trade Plan and IdeaTraders are in big-time risk aversion mode as more bad news on the Coronavirus outbreak continues to hit the wires. Most notable that seems to have traders running to safe havens. Safe havens like the Greenback have already benefited in the session, while risk currencies like the Aussie (and the major currency most likely affected by this outbreak given Australia’s strong economic ties with China). AUD/USD which has already made more than a full daily ATR move lower since the week open (0.6814) before bottoming out around 0.6765. This week, the US Federal Reserve is scheduled to have its first meeting this year and expected to decide on its monetary policy. The key interest rate will apparently remain intact, but that’s not 100%. One for the more prudent traders who like to go after higher risk-to-reward returns on this major pair will not hesitate to risk and we all know "No pain... No gain! meaning no risk no profit!"
Long
by jessi061
ridethepig | AUD Strategy NotesThe main and secondary functions of the next swing. How it behaves, when it strikes and becomes impulsive, and how it does when put under pressure from the defender. The function of the zig-zag and impulsive wave is to immobilise our opponent. The retrace is a tree-shaker, it itself tends to be very flexible. And yet it is common for retail to display signs of considerable over-exposure and lack of flexbility. Namely: (1) From the Macro chart: (2) A potential CB short-circuit: It seems that on the longer term charts AUD has already packed its bag and set out on its travels. (a) the journey looks promising; buy the dips and look to cover positions into resistance. (b) if it returns to the starting point of the journey to squeeze early buyers (c) if RBA is in a position to take care of the monetary side. It is crystal clear that RBA have previously hinted at the idea of a Feb cut, the protection here comes from the RBNZ surprise hold. Although it may not seem so, the RBNZ lead is of great importance; it shows how little elasticity the RBA & RBNZ have. For the details on the cross I keep digging deeper in AUDNZD, we are approaching key value levels and RBNZ has shown signs of distress with NZD at this level: In this simplest of all swings, AUD sellers will take a short holiday and allow the break of 0.692x. There is a clear head and shoulders technical setup with 0.684x neckline. Should we lose these lows (unlikely) then the move towards 0.675x is unlocked. Assuming employment data holds on Wednesday then RBA will remain on hold and market will be caught out of position. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. Jump into the conversation with your charts, ideas and questions!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Dollar Weekly StrategyWith DXY sitting at resistance, I don’t see room for any further near term gains in Dollar. More importantly we are approaching key value levels for sellers from the last Q and large corporates have been spotted on the offer in USD. I have made the Dollar chart available and will publish it with al the more pleasure, since it is particularly interesting as we are sitting in the age of the Aggressive USD devaluation. So here is the chart: Sellers are not afraid of the flank attack because strong macro forces are in play in the monthly chart. The play is centralised; buyers must begin to be felt and in addition the prospect of a breakout down is driving the desperation of the exchange: This illustrates nicely the struggle that USD buyers face. Motto: first position, then defend, and finally breakdown. Markets starting to find their footing for 2020 after clearing NFP. Focus this week shifting to a round of important US macro prints, a key week for those trading USD pairs. Good luck all those on the sell side in USD, major moves in play and important chart updates coming in the next few sessions. I will have live coverage as usual in the Telegram . Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
Australian Dollar and Kiwi Strengthens As Risk Appetite ResumesOn Friday, the Australian dollar , along with its New Zealand counterpart, led improvements among major currencies in the FX market. The upsurge was due to the easing of geopolitical conflicts in the Mideast. Investors bought riskier currencies after the comparatively upbeat U.S. economic data this week, also promoting sentiment. Meanwhile, the greenback was firm against a basket of other currencies. Moreover, it is on track to record its best week in two months. The possibility of war in the Middle East subsided as the United States and Iran backed away from further conflict. In a statement, a currency strategist at Credit Agricole in London, Manuel Oliver, stated, “Risk sentiment is back to easing geopolitical tensions and hopes of an interim trade deal between China and the U.S. as early as next week.” Meanwhile, the Aussie added a third of a percent to $0.68755. Its strength diminished on escalating bets of an interest rate cut as early as February. The rate cut was due to weeks of bushfires that have cast a shadow over the stronger economy. Also, the Kiwi dollar inched up 0.2% to $0.6622. This week, the greenback has roughly outperformed the G10 FX. The information has also put a floor under a recent dwindling of interest rate differentials between U.S. and European bonds. The spreads between U.S. Treasuries and equivalent German debt for 10-year maturities were trading near 210 bps. National Australia Bank’s head of FX strategy, Ray Attrill, said, “There’s nothing fundamental to drive people out the U.S. dollar at this stage.” On the other side, the greenback increased by 0.6% versus a basket of its competitors. It is the most significant weekly upswing since early November. Moreover, it has held firm at 97.44 today. However, moves in other major currencies were moderate, with traders focusing on December job-market data. The consensus forecast expects 164,000 extra jobs in December, in the wake of a mega 266,000 counted in November. This week, the Chinese yuan is another robust performer that has climbed to a five-month high. The upsurge was despite the geopolitical turbulence, on rising optimism as the January 15 date for endorsing the Sino-U.S. trade deal nears. The currency last traded at 6.9315 per dollar in the foreign exchange market. Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the Phase 1 trade deal with China would receive signatures on January 15. However, on Thursday, according to some spokesperson, the deal could be signed “shortly thereafter.”
by Financebroker