Greenback
AUSSIE Likely To Slump Towards 0.6700 Level. A SHORT SWING TRADENow that The RBA has cut its interest and the economy not doing so well we could see this pair slump to 67 cents!
Bare in mind that the 0.7000 level is a very crucial resistance at the moment and any upward momentum is unlikely to happen as the trade war persists putting pressure on the AUD.
0.67000 level is another crucial support that has been drawn from the monthly charts and in my view this where the price is headed next. so below are the trade details. shall there be any updates i will update them below
TRADE ENTRY LEVEL: 0.69100
STOP LOSS: 0.71100
TAKE PROFIT: 0.67000
RR: 1:1
TRADE TYPE: SHORT
CHEERS
USD/CHF DAILY HEAD AND SHOULDERS, BREAKOUT READY!Price Action (Technical Analysis): Daily Head and Shoulders formed & ready for a Breakout . Bearish weekly pin bar formed giving us a heads up bearish pressure isn't going to be fading away, bears are in control. I'd like to see a 4H or Daily candle stick breaking & closing below our Head and Shoulder Neckline to confirm our high likely analysis.
Fundamental Analysis: None.
GBP/USD HEADING TO ALL TIME LOWSPrice Action (Technical Analysis): Making sense of what we currently see in the market would be acknowledging monthly impulse retracing into the 38% & since then seller haven't been cutting the bulls much of a break. The ideal entrance into this pair would be to allow price to test our monthly support & receive various confirmations around our psychological level 1.20000 whether to expect flow to continue short or an entry of buyer waves rejecting price from pushing any further down.
Fundamental Analysis: The Pound needs a serious recovery after the Greenback has been highly appreciated lately, we have plenty of USD news upcoming this week, letting our analysis play out in one way or the other. GBP/USD is netted-long 79% by retail traders, a lot of times the majority gets dumped on so that's why we anticipate price moving to our desired area of entry & speculate price action at our rally point 1.20000
XAUUSD - Trade IdeaXAUUSD has a potential to form a bullish triangle which is a continuation signal. However it needs to retouch first the support area at 1390 before any further rise.
How to trade XAUUSD:
Sell and target 1390. Once the price reaches our buy zone and we get a rejection, we buy and target 1440. Or, just wait for the price to reach the PRZ (price rejection zone/buy zone) and open a trade targeting 1440.
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USDJPY HARMONIC COMPLETEDThe USDJPY currency pair took a nose dive over the past week due to to global trade wars currently underway. The USDJPY pair fell over 100 pips on Friday afternoon, May 31, 2019 which completed the BC leg on this identified bearish Gartley. I have also identified a bullish Gartley on the 5m-15m timeframes confirming the bulls entering the market after the massive decline Friday afternoon.
My exact entry was performed on the 15m timeframe chart.
Happy Trading and ALWAYS Manage your risk.
Location and Momentum Bull SetupPrice in Monthly Chart had tested the Monthly Demand area printing the long-tailed Hammer which aligns with the trendline from 2016 and 2018 Demand zone.
This alone give the strong conviction for Bull run
Like wise , Weekly chart perfectly re-aligns being tested the Demand zones which printed the Doji Last week.I expect the weekly112-114 area to be easily absorbed by the bull movement and target the 116 weekly untested fresh Supply area.
As Daily Price has already Took out The Daily Supply CP and formed the Daily demand 110-109 area printing the CP where i will place the buy limit order .THis
Yen Making A Come Back? - Ichimoku USD/JPY Sell TradeThis pair had been in a consolidation zone for over a week (shown as the blue box) and we've finally broken out below it. I am now looking for a confirmed bearish kumo breakout to enter a sell. I've drawn my entry point at a flat area on the kumo that also lines up near the end of the wicks of the failed bearish moves we've already had. My longer term target was drawn out previous price structure and a flat kumo, as well as a kumo twist. If we fail to get the breakout or close below the flat kumo we want for entry, this setup may become invalidated.
Seems like the greenback will be heading down!They always say nothing good seems to ever last forever. This is also apparently true in the currency world as well. The green back USDJPY pair has been held strong due to the strength of the DXY(USD) but due to inflation the fall of the DXY(USD) is inevitable, and unavoidable.
Here my long term technical analysis illustrates that over the course of the next 16 weeks we are in for a decline in the value of the USDJPY trading pair. I am expecting that today 4/16/2019 will be the beginning of that declination.
Take a look at my illustration and give me your feedback
DO NOT BUY USDJPY Until the Wedge breaks! Initial Target 114.000This pair has broken all the vital levels technically, furthermore fundamentally its easily on the course of hitting the next resistance that lies at 114.00 level after which it might likely further target 118.00 level! However even though USDJPY seems it might HIT 114.00 level by next week or the week ahead, technically we are confined in a very concrete wedge that has been respected on a numerous occasions!
Have a look at the main chart for weekly TF. The upper trendline of the wedge is clearly acting as potential resistance which needs to be broken (the weekly candle needs to close outside this trendline) for us to have technical confirmation to go LONG!
Markets are currently on a RISK ON appetite mood and it will likely intensify in the coming weeks which would drag the yellow metal down and other safe haven pairs such as eurjpy and usdjpy. Its an excellent opportunity to take this trade LONG whilst the markets are in RISK ON mood.
Have a look at the image above taken from the daily TF of this pair. H & S Patterns are reversal patterns however in some cases they act as consolidation patterns! Here we see an inverse H & S present on the DAILY TF, a break of the neckline would likely propel the price to break the LONG TERM trendline on weekly charts. After this is done we can wait for the price to retrace slightly before entering a LONG position.
THIS JUST REPRESENTS MY ANALYSIS ON THIS PAIR AND SHALL THE CRITERIA MEET I WILL POST THE TRADE DETAILS IN A NEW POST. Please if you like my analysis give it a LIKE and FOLLOW me if you would like to receive more analysis. cheers
Second stage of EM rally?After previously tracking the reversal (see attached: "Another key reversal in play in USDRUB") finally the break of 65 has come. From a technical standpoint this was important as it unlocked the 62.5 lows.
Russia has been one of the out performers on the currency board so far this year and I continue to see scope for more gains, irrespective of the very near term reversal in dollar.
The risk here to the setup is coming from sanctions related risk. Russian authorities have been quick to take measures to insulate the economy (reaction to DASKAA bill).
Best of luck all those trading EM and thanks for keeping the likes and comments rolling
Sell the Green against NOKWhat are we trading here?
Norway is outperforming in the G10, unemployment falling while inflation exceeding expectations. As a result, interest rates are moving in favour of NOK. The hawkish surprise earlier in the week from Norges Bank suggested that more hikes are necessary has been supportive of the currency.
A key risk is Oil prices holding firm around current levels (starting to look less likely) and Norwegian data softening (not expected)
Best of luck all and thanks for the support with likes, comments and etc.
Short USD/JPY via risk=> Here we are isolating the Yen once more and expecting a worsening outlook of US assets to continue which will raise the prospect of asset repatriation out of the US.
Whilst risk may be rebounding temporarily as the FED attempts a dovish shift, and US-China trade tensions are likely to continue de-escalating, USDJPY will still like remain on offer amid broader USD weakness.
Here we also expect the rebound in risk sentiment to be temporary rather than fixed, meaning JPY will see some inflows. If Japanese banks tighten conditions further we will have a greater incentive for real money to reduce their exposure in the US.
The only risk here is if risk on sentiment stays supported and the US macro outlook improves.
For those interested in more details on the "flash crash" please see our previous USDJPY weekly chart!
Good luck and all the best for those invested in the US.
EURUSD bears in control Here expecting EURUSD to break down from its four-month range to the downside over the coming hours.
All of the Euro push up factors (growth expectations, improved politics etc) have all left the picture and now we are back to the same story before the rally towards 1.25.
Europe, particularly on a risk adjusted basis has worsened. Poor growth and inflation are pushing back any expectations of a hike from the ECB, while European equities continue to underperform the US.
This is not to say I expect a test of parity, rather that there is significant downside risk at a time when both actual and expected return differentials have moved sharply in favour of the US in a flight to quality (whatever that means).
From a technical perspective, a test of the 61.8% fibonacci retracement from December 2016 lows to early 2018 highs seems impossible to avoid now and as a result we are entering short ahead of the Fed minutes.
Wishing all those trading this one in live the best of luck, please continue to keep your support coming in with a like and comment.
Thanks
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) Showing Signs of Exhaustion! With the crucial 97.00 area rejected and acting as a concrete resistance, DXY is showing signs of exhaustion both technically and fundamentally!
Looking at the fundamental picture, the FED has already signaled that its pausing its rate hike, moreover the trade war among the two largest economies in the world is just putting to much pressure on the greenback. FED signaled the economy is stable however the signs of slight economic slowdown are already visible with china imposing high tariffs on US goods. Today's core durable order and Philadelphia manufacturing index both came below expectations and as we wait for the existing home sales report later today it would not be a surprise if the reading is below expectation. Even considering the future economic calendar releases most of the readings will likely be below the forecast as well considering if a trade deal has not been reached. In short at the moment its not looking that good for the greenback at the moment fundamentally!
Looking at the technical aspects, the crucial 97.000 level was the key resistance that was rejected and now if the trendline is violated the price might head towards the next support that lies in the 93.00 region.
If the trendline is violated we should be prepared for a big drop in the DXY. Certain pairs that are highly correlated with the DXY such as EURUSD can be traded with added confluence.