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Greenenergy

Saga Pure trading at 175-194 % of NAV (price target 2.2-2.9 NOK)Saga Pure ( OSL:SAGA ) is an investment company focusing on renewable and clean energy. Their investments are in both publicly traded companies and in private companies. The largest shareholder is Øystein Stray Spetalen. The company was previously named Saga Tankers and owned stocks in S.D. Standard Drilling, an indoor sport arena and other smaller investments. Prior becoming an investment company the company owned various tanker vessels that was sold in 2011 and 2012. The company launched a new strategy in the fall of 2020 where investments would focus on renewable and clean energy. With a new strategy they divested what they considered outside the Company's main investment focus (except Vistin Pharma and Element), hired a new CEO (Bjørn Simonsen) and have issued shares a number of times to fund future investments. According to my calculations, Saga Pure is currently trading at 175-194 % of net asset value. My price target is 2.2-2.9 NOK per share. The company published a prospectus 11th of January 2021 as they are doing three subsequent offerings after the a number of private placements. According to my understanding of the prospectus: Net asset value as of 15th of January 2021 before execution of subsequent offerings: Sum listed investments (fair value, market price): 325.94 MNOK Sum investment in private companies (investment value): 65 MNOK Net cash-liabilities: 517.1 MNOK Cash received from partial divestment of Everfuel ASA: 13.3-101.5 MNOK NAV: 921.34-1,009.54 MNOK In addition to the assets listed above they have an nine-month option for a 30 MNOK investment in Bergen Carbon Solutions. NAV per share: Post private placements (469,149,831 shares), NAV 1,96-2,15 per share Post private placements + CEO options (484,149,831 shares), NAV 1,96-2,15 per share Post private placements + CEO options + Subsequent offering I (488,149,831 shares), NAV 1,97-2,15 per share Post private placements + CEO options + Subsequent offering II (493,049,831 shares), NAV 1,98-2,15 per share Post private placements + CEO options + Subsequent offering III (497,849,831 shares), NAV 2.00-2.17 per share If we assign the cash holdings with a value 20-50% above NAV the price target for Saga Pure is 2.2-2.8 NOK per share. If we value investment in private companies (executed in 11th and 28th of december 2020) at double the investment price target is 2.3-2.9 per share. Investments: Everfuel ( OSL:EFUEL ), 1.8 million shares, listed on Euronext Growth, market price as of 15th of January 2021 153 NOK, fair value 275.4 MNOK Vistin Pharma ( OSL:VISTN ), 2,284,280 shares, listed on Oslo Stock Exchange, market price as of 15th of January 2021 20 NOK, fair value 45.69 MNOK Element ( OSL:ELE ), 970 thousand shares, listed on Oslo Stock Exchange, market price as of 15th of January 2021 5 NOK, fair value 4.85 MNOK Horisont Energi ASA, 35 MNOK, not listed, fair value at investment date 35 MNOK Bergen Carbon Solutions AS, 30 MNOK (+option agreement with the right to invest additional 30 MNOK in a nine-month period), not listed, fair value at investment date 35 MNOK Sum listed investments (fair value, market price): 325.94 MNOK Sum investment in private companies (investment value): 65 MNOK Capitalization and indebtedness adjusted for post-balance sheet events, private placements and investments: Cash: +537.2 MNOK (including private placements, excluding potential proceeds from subsequent offerings) Trading securities: +18.1 MNOK Long term debt: -0 NOK Other current financial debt: -38.2 MNOK (including 35 MNOK investment in Horisont Energy) Net cash-liabilities: 517.1 MNOK Other noteworthy changes in balance sheet: Saga Pure has divested 700,000 shares in Everfuel between 29th of October 2020 and 6th of January 2021. Bringing their investment from 2.5 million shares to 1.8 million shares. The price for the 700,000 shares sold is unknown. The market price per share has a low of 19 NOK and a high of 145 NOK in the same period. This will have a positive effect on their cash holding by 13.3 - 101.5 MNOK. Private placements since 20th of October 2020: Number of shares prior 20th of October 2020: 286,149,831 54,000,000 (2020-10-20), gross proceeds 70.2 MNOK, cost 1.5 MNOK, net proceeds 68.7 MNOK 34,000,000 (2020-11-30), gross proceeds 54.4 MNOK, cost 1.2 MNOK, net proceeds 53.2 MNOK 35,000,000 (2020-12-14), gross proceeds 73.5 MNOK, cost 1.3 MNOK, net proceeds 72.2 MNOK 30,000,000 (2020-12-21), gross proceeds 87 MNOK, cost 2.0 MNOK, net proceeds 85 MNOK 30,000,000 (2020-12-29), gross proceeds 123 MNOK, cost 2.0 MNOK, net proceeds 121 MNOK Number of shares post private placements: 469,149,831 Number of shares available in subsequent offerings: 4,000,000, price 2.1 NOK per share, potential gross proceeds 8,4 MNOK (bringing the total number of shares to 473,149,831) 4,900,000, price 2.9 NOK per share, potential gross proceeds 14,21 MNOK (bringing the total number of shares to 478,049,831) 4,800,000, price 4.1 NOK per share, , potential gross proceeds 19,68 MNOK (bringing the total number of shares to 482,849,831) Subscription period ends on 27th of January for all three subsequent offerings. Number of shares the board has allocated to share options (25 million shares authorized to allocate for options for employees and key persons): 5,000,000, strike 1.5 NOK 5,000,000, strike 2.0 NOK 5,000,000, strike 2.5 NOK 10,000,000, authorized but not allocated Other information from the prospectus: Saga pays a fee on a total of NOK 200,000 ex. VAT each month to Ferncliff Holding AS for consultancy services carried out by Martin Nes and Øystein Stray Spetalen. Ferncliff Holding AS is a company owned and controlled by director and main shareholder in Saga, Øystein Stray Spetalen. The Company pays on a hourly basis for back-office services such as accounting, and a monthly fee for rent of office premises and common costs.
OSL:SAGAShort
by Klemmeringen
2
Will these Green Energy Stocks Gained 400%-1300% in 2021?With the prospects of the green infrastructure plan by Joe Biden, green energy sector has seen a resume of interest from the investors and traders. Five green energy stocks with strong momentum have been selected from from the AMEX:PBW ETF (Invesco ETF Wilderhill Clean Energy), which are potentially near the buy point based on the technical analysis with price action trading and volume spread with Wyckoff analysis. Check out the trading plan of each stock with entry point and stop loss based on either breakout trading or simple pullback trading strategy for these stocks - PBW, NASDAQ:FUV , NYSE:NIO , NASDAQ:TSLA , NASDAQ:ENPH , NASDAQ:IEA .
ILong
by mingjong
24
Possible Trend Continuation via Symmetrical TriangleSunrun is currently nearing the end of a symmetrical triangle formation, recently making its 3rd higher low and 3rd lower high in the previous trading sessions. A break of the top trendline would be a continuation of the uptrend into new highs. Bullish bias as TAN and other solar names have been getting lots of attention through Biden getting elected, and the proposed Green New Deal + re entry of the Paris Climate accord. Plan accordingly as the days lead up to break out of the triangle range.
NASDAQ:RUN
by tsxshawn
1
The Green decade has begun [ETF trades setup ICLN/SPY]A detailed analysis on the subject of the expected green revolution in this decade. I won't dwell into the chart technicals' instead I will focus my attention on the fundamentals, in three key bullet points: A) Firstly, I chose ICLN since it's by far the largest by volume and assets, green ETF. Interestingly it has had quite an abysmal performance relative to SPY for the past decade, as well as an appallingly negative Sharpe. Since 2018, it's performance has picked up and relatively stabilized wrt the SPX. Despite of the negative dividend yield carry of about -1%, ICLN (0.62%) vs SPY(1.59%), it's negligible compared to the price appreciation component of these ETFs. Moreover, it seems that the pandemic has been a positive catalyst overall, since it increased the odds of Biden winning the U.S. elections, and we all know the Democrats stance on environmental policy as compared to Trumps non-existent one. The Biden-Harris odds realized last week, which was followed by a bull-run. Considering the current pace of the momentum channel, ICLN is undoubtedly in a parabolic formation. B) Another indication, is the price appreciation of precious metals used in production of sustainable energy products, such as lithium, palladium, nickel to name a few. Relative to gold, these metals generally have a positive market beta since their demand is largely influenced by economic growth, especially from some of the developing countries in the past decade(India, Indonesia, China etc). Palladium: Lithium ETF : Nickel: Essentially, the price appreciation of these metals certainly is an indication of the growing demand, and therein the growth potential of the whole renewables sector, also an indication of the ecologically friendly premium corporates and governments are willing to pay. Naturally, if the cost of inputs becomes too high, implying a demand gap, but also lack of supply as it becomes more difficult to extract these metals, which in fact might produce more pollutants than the gain from utilizing these metals in developing sustainable products. However, it seems that this discussion so far is not in the news headlines, so therefore the current trend isn't threatened for now. C) It is important to distinguish between the types of market participants wrt to their portfolio preferences, biases and why they are willing to pay for an ecological and/or CSR premiums. The general consensus is that CSR investments lately have outperformed sin stocks on a relative basis. One of the explanation is CSR branding, and the idea that consumers will pay a premium to be associated with such a brand, therefore the stocks that score highly on the ESG scale, are simply better investments despite their high multiples. ESG/SPY: I think in general, it boils down to three types of market participants in ESG assets: 1. Investors that genuinely care for the environment, and are extremely elastic in terms of the ESG premiums they pay. 2. Investors that are seeking "warm glow", i.e own these assets for the sake of feeling better about their choices. In this group I'd add investors that hold these assets for their reputational benefits. 3. Traders looking to profit off the current momentum channel, without any views on the environmental issues that we're facing. In summary, it's clear that the sector principally benefits from governmental subsidies/investments, which is perhaps the only way to deal with this issue. With the Biden/Harris catalyst, as well as increase awareness of the emerging economics, specifically the example of the Chinese governments' willingness to transition their infrastructure investments more and more into renewables, the renewables sector is expected to boom for at least the entire decade. One could say that we're looking at the start of the next bubble- "The Green Bubble". Parallels can be drawn to the Japanese bubble of the early 90's, and the tech bubble of the 2000's. However, since this is governmentally induced sector growth, it is also a permanent price shock that will be sustained by governments green infrastructure investments. This is it for the upcoming green revolution. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well-informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details , every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! Disclosure : This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
NASDAQ:ICLNLong
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
5
Multi-year bear market end or not?? Prologue: This pair has been in a multi-year bear market and all that could change soon. This year alone, the price hit a multi-year low of 0.80189. The price has recovered to a year high of 0.90110. However, since July, the price slid into a zone between support and resistance that have kept the price ranging for the past few months. It's important to note that the pair aggressively rejected the March support at the 0.382 fibonacci retracement level of the previous multi-year bull run from January 2009. This support zone has held the price above the 0.382 Zone for the past 5 years as the pair corrects. The price can continue lower to test this zone again. However, I'm not motivated by a further downside as I will explain in this idea. Price Action this year. Price gained 12.37% from the March 16th Low till July. Currently, the price is still ranging and has already rejected the 0.382 fibonacci retracement level twice. The pair has formed a higher low whenever the price tested the level pushing the pair into a pennant pattern against multi-year trendline. It's still possible for the price to reject the major trend line and create another swing downward. In the past few weeks, price has broken above a strong resistance which it's currently testing. I expect a bullish push in the medium term but the pennant holds it against a long term bullish impulse. The Oil Demand Wild Card So, why I'm I bullish on the long term? Simple, heading to 2050, many countries around the world will have achieved their net-zero emissions target. This time it's different as countries in the G20 are pushing for a green energy development as a strategy to stimulate the countries after the 2020 recessions. In addition to this, the corporate world is also looking to reduce emissions from supply chains. Support from many people around the world will push the demand for oil down. The OPEC Wildcard With falling oil demand, the OPEC members will certainly manipulate supply of the blackgold in order to stabilise prices as their economies are still highly dependent on oil. This is the only thing that might stop the CAD from weakness. My Sentiment Personally, I feel that the oil demand narrative will take hold and that the pair may exit the multi-year bear market as the CAD has a high correlation to oil prices. However the OPEC manipulation of oil supply might keep the price stabilised. Peak oil is coming sooner and green energy will be cheaper than the fossil fuel in supply chains. In the meantime, I expect price to keep ranging as demand of oil will be low with new lockdowns in Europe.
Long
by GrizzlyBearBee
UUUU Can Benefit Long Term LongThere are several stocks that are worth considering in this bottoming of the Uranium cycle. Some have better looking charts than others, and some have held up better than others. Yet, I've decided to go with $UUUU, even though it has not held up best thus far. Technically, we may have just seen a capitulation-esque move, setting up the last best chance to get in. I was able to average in on January 31 for $1.41... (bringing my average entry to $1.71) but am posting this now at $1.68. There is bullish divergence set up on this weekly chart with MACD and RSI printing a higher low, coinciding with the most recent low in price. Also, see the yellow line for average volume, which has clearly ticked up since 2017 levels and the notable spike since June 2018. This all looks very bullish to me long term. I don't have a target in mind yet, but buying and holding unless and until there is a monthly close below $1.20. Fundamentally, Energy Fuels (UUUU) not only can benefit from the long term resurgence of Uranium, but also is positioned to benefit from its Vanadium. These prospects are increased all the more by the global push for the 'green' economy... regardless of the actual merits behind such push. A recent short video from Francis Hunt is titled " Oil is Dying ". Why fight the big money? May this post be of use to you. In God's Will UIOGD - JMJ
AMEX:UUUULong
by Procinctu
AVL Elliot WaveAVL has had a really nice run up in price finishing off last year on a high. Buy range around the 50% fib level point "c" after the Weekly RSI cools off. MACD is the most diverged its been in a long time and the BULL volume is Decreasing setting up for a pull back to give us a better entry price for Long positions. Interesting area to watch is the middle uptrend line where we may see a bounce before seeing further upward movement. If we break look for a long entry in the .036-.032 range. The fundamental's of this company look solid with the Vanadium Re-flow battery market getting a lot of attention lately. With some recent positive news we may just see a bounce off the middle trend line and some more continuation. news: smallcaps.com.au Lets see :)
ASX:AVLLong
by gillman_hugh