Grocery
DNUT - Krispy jumped and then got a sugar high LONGDNUT from no where on a 15 minute chart moved late on Monday and then continued on
Tuesday, the trend indicator is thick suggesting continuation again for another day. Donuts sold
good for St. Patrick's Day. I am in this since yesterday. Added at the opening bell and the
lunch hour. It is risk free as the stop loss is above the average entry. Looks like more
bullish continuation tomorrow.
WALMART may be approaching the end of this rallyWalmart Inc. (WMT) has been rising since the low of the June 13 2022 weekly (1W) candle. Along the way it broke above the key Resistance of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and after it held the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), it has established both as Support levels long-term.
There are however two longer term patterns to consider that supersede those MA periods, and those are the Megaphone pattern since November 2020 and the Higher Lows trend-line/ Zone since November 09 2015.
As the 1W RSI enters the Resistance zone that is holding since 2016 and only broke once, we have to start considering that the top is near especially as the price is approaching the Higher Lows zone of the Megaphone. As you see since 2016, every major test of the 1W RSI Resistance Zone hit at least the 1W MA50. This suggests that if you bought Walmart a few weeks back, you may start looking to book profits and re-buy lower either on the 1W MA50 or even a little lower, the closer to the Higher Lows trend-line, the better.
If the price breaks first above the Megaphone's top (Higher Highs trend-line), it is an instant buy and a new bullish pattern will emerge.
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ACI Looking Weak Earnings are scheduled to be announced on the 28th for ACI.
Very poor technical setup for ACI, anything less than a phenomenal earnings report should send the stock tumbling down to support at the 21 level. I'm entering a short on ACI as soon as I see a retest of 26.00 and then a follow-up confirmation of lower price action.
$BJ: Budding $COST competitor?Wholesale and membership models have really stood the test of time as we've seen with $COST reaching new all time highs. The Fed doesn't seem too concerned with inflation which could be giving the green light to some of the strong inflation players once again. Wheat threatens a breakout at the time of writing. Good luck traders!
Valued at USD 5.5 Bn in US IPO Debut, On June 29, online groceries e-commerce company Dingdong Maicai (DDL:NYSE) went public in New York after raising USD 96 million in an initial public offering, a dramatic cutback from the original projection of USD 357 million.
Dingdong Maicai had initially planned to raise up to USD 357 million by selling 14 million ADSs, priced between USD 23.5 and USD 25.5. But its updated SEC filings disclosed that the company shrank the IPO target to 3.7 million ADSs priced at USD 23.5 each, which was in the lower end of the indicative price range. The market value of Dingdong Maicai reached USD 5.54 billion based on the issue price.
The shares of Dingdong Maicai opened at USD 28 and quickly jumped to as high as USD 29.99, 25.5% ahead of its IPO price. However, the stock later backed down to close at USD 23.52.
In 2019 and 2020, Dingdong Maicai achieved CNY 3.88 billion and CNY 11.336 billion revenue, respectively; for 2021 Q1, the revenue increased by 46.0% to CNY 3.802 billion from CNY 2.604 billion in the same period last year. From 2018 to 2020, the GMV of Dingdong Maicai jumped from CNY 742 million to CNY 13.03 billion with a CAGR of 319.2%.
OG.V -- Rapidly expanding, profitable organic grocerOG (Organic Garage) is reporting 12th consecutive month of sales growth. It has just announced entering plant based cheese and butter market which is a multi-billion dollar space. Chart is primed for another leg up following the bullish MACD cross and gap fill yesterday.
Kroger BearishI am not licensed or certified by any individual or institution to provide financial or investment advice.
I believe Kroger (KR) is in a downtrend. I have marked what I believe to be the support and resistance with purple trend lines. As of this writing (December 30, 2020 4:00pm) I am not in any positions, bearish or bullish, in KR. If KR continues up to the Resistance and then bounces down, or if it fails to reach Resistance and just continues down, I may buy some Puts.
Consumer staples are the best of all possible worlds right nowSo we've got macroeconomic forces pulling in a couple different directions right now. One the one hand, the Fed is talking about pumping trillions of dollars more liquidity into the market, which should further inflate equity prices. On the other hand, with coronavirus cases continuing to rocket, we're starting to see economic data fall off a cliff. Consumer staples and metals are the natural havens.
Today, the University of Michigan measure of US consumer sentiment for July came in at 73.2 versus the consensus expectation of 79. This was the largest negative surprise on record, and it's going to have a big negative effect on the consumer discretionary sector. And what's bad for retail is also bad for banks, as CMBS delinquency reached 10.32%. We also got a large negative surprise on housing starts today, up only 2.1% vs. the 4.9% consensus expectation. Home building has been the one bright spot in the economy as Americans flee the cities for the suburbs, so this is a concerning deterioration in that market. The ECRI leading index has been flattening, and mobility is falling as scared consumers remain at home even in states that haven't reclosed. California's reclosure this week was a huge deal, since the state accounts for nearly 15% of US GDP.
Consumer confidence chart:
twitter.com
Mobility chart:
www.dallasfed.org
Meanwhile, the Fed's balance sheet grew this week for the first time in four weeks, which means that liquidity-- and the accompanying asset price inflation-- is on the upswing again. Congress is actively working on as much as $3.5 trillion in new stimulus, and Lael Brainard of the Federal Reserve is signaling that the Fed may get more aggressive about trying to hit its 2% inflation target, even to the point of "overshooting" that target to make up for years of weak inflation. (Current CPI is about 1.2%.)
See Brainard's remarks here:
www.federalreserve.gov
With economic data starting to sour, I don't really want to be in equities. But with more liquidity coming, I don't really want to be out of equities, either. My solution is to hide out in metals and consumer staples. A fall-off in mobility will be bad for nearly every sector of the economy, but it should be bullish for consumer staples and grocery store stocks, some of which report earnings in the next few weeks. That makes the consumer staples sector a natural safe haven as California recloses and frightened consumers stay home. Consumer staples also pay dividends, and they're a little more reasonably valued than technology, which is the other sector that might conceivably benefit from reclosing. As you can see on the chart, staples recently made a bullish trend line break (which I alerted before it happened), and they have continued to strengthen since.
Consumer staples look poised to outperform this earnings seasonWe've now had five early earnings reports from the consumer staples sector in the last couple weeks, including today's reports from General Mills and Constellation Brands. On average, EPS for these companies beat analyst estimates by 12.5%, revenue beat by over 3%. That suggests that analysts have underestimated both demand and profit margins for this sector in Q2. I think we'll see strong performance from the sector as we head into the July earnings season. The risk for this sector is that companies won't issue guidance for Q3. We've already seen weak post-earnings stock reactions from Kroger and General Mills as a result of their failure to issue guidance.
In addition to earnings outperformance in Q2, consumer staples may benefit from any news of economic "reclosing" as we go into Q3. Bank of America reported today that "The percent of businesses open relative to the baseline (pre-covid) levels has stalled at around -20% to -21% and the number of hourly employees working remains down around 23%-24%." Likewise, Goldman Sachs "calculates that 40% of the US has now reversed or placed reopening on hold." If consumers continue to stay home, then consumer staples sales will remain strong in Q3.
Consumer staples testing trend line on reclosing & stimulus newsConsumer staples tested and got rejected from a critical trend line this afternoon. The sector has been strengthening due to demand for groceries as economies reclose. Today it also got a bump thanks to news that people with incomes less than $40,000/year may get a second round of stimulus checks. This ought to help juice consumer demand a little. I've also been impressed with the staples sector's performance on earnings reports so far, and I'm expecting the sector to continue to beat analyst expectations.
The staples sector has been beneath a downward sloping trend line since February, but it has tested the trend line three times in fairly rapid succession and may be gearing up for a breakout. I've set an alert on the trend line and will be watching for a cross with good volume as my buy signal.
Weis Markets $WMK "uncorfirmed double bottom"$WMK will try to break $49.84. To confirm the double bottom needs to hold above it.
12 months Consensus Price Target: NA
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$SFM can fall in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea.
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc., a healthy grocery store, provides fresh, natural, and organic food products in the United States.
The demand for shares of the company still looks lower than the supply.
This and other conditions can cause a fall in the share price in the next days.
So I opened a short position from $22,28;
stop-loss — $22,54.
Information about take-profits will be later.
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Triple Bottom or Inverted H&S?I have placed 3 green arrows representing the triple bottom, which is also the head of an inverted H&S.
The RSI looks healthy, I see no reason why Costco won't perform bullishly going forward.
A triple bottom is a visual pattern that shows the buyers (bulls) taking control of the price action from the sellers (bears).
A triple bottom is generally seen as three roughly equal lows bouncing off support followed by the price action breaching resistance.
The formation of triple bottom is seen as an opportunity to enter a bullish position.
The triple bottom chart pattern typically follows a prolonged downtrend where bears are in control of the market. While the first bottom could simply be normal price movement, the second bottom is indicative of the bulls gaining momentum and preparing for a possible reversal. The third bottom indicates that there's strong support in place and bears may capitulate when the price breaks through resistance levels.
An inverse head and shoulders is similar to the standard head and shoulders pattern, but inverted: with the head and shoulders top used to predict reversals in downtrends
An inverse head and shoulders pattern, upon completion, signals a bull market
Investors typically enter into a long position when the price rises above the resistance of the neckline. The dark Blue line on the chart represents the neckline.
Grocers to benefit from eat-at-home due to coronavirusAs coronavirus pandemic spreads, consumers will continue to work at home and eat-at-home. Prime beneficiaries will be grocers. Sobeys in Canada (owned by Empire Company) is also reducing costs rapidly and has a 'smaller' store format strategy across Canada. Synergies from its acquisition of Safeway's Canada stores continue.