ACC Ltd (NSE: ACC) Weekly Chart Analysis🔹 Channel Support and Resistance
The stock has been moving within an ascending channel since early 2022, creating a structured uptrend. Currently, it’s trading near the channel’s lower boundary, around ₹2,357. This zone has historically acted as a key support level, making it an area to watch closely for potential buying interest.
🔹 Descending Wedge Breakout
Recently, ACC broke out of a descending wedge pattern, a generally bullish formation, which suggests the potential for an upward move. The breakout is still in its early stages, so continued momentum will be critical in confirming the trend reversal.
🔹 Price Targets
First Resistance: ₹2,592.75 – If momentum sustains, this level aligns with a prior high and could act as a short-term target.
Channel Resistance: If the stock gains further strength, the upper boundary of the channel could offer the next significant resistance level.
🔹 Cement Industry Tailwinds
According to brokerages, Indian cement firms, including ACC, have seen successful price hikes in September, and there are plans for further hikes in October. This is generally positive for margins, adding fundamental support to the current technical picture.
🔹 RSI
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows an oversold condition that’s starting to turn upwards, suggesting possible accumulation at these levels.
📈 Conclusion: Watch for sustained support around ₹2,357 and an upward move towards ₹2,592. A close above ₹2,592 could indicate renewed bullish strength, especially with ongoing industry tailwinds from price hikes.
Growth-stocks
MULTIBAGGER Series - Stock 5Hello everyone!
I am back with 3rd company of the multibagger series.
The company is Gensol Engineering Ltd. Gensol Engineering Ltd is engaged in the business of Solar consulting & EPC. The company is among the top 10 EPC players in India and the top 5 in terms of independent EPC players. It has Solar Business, EV Lease Business, EV Manufacturing and Green Hydrogen Business. As of Q1 FY25, the company has a total order book of Rs. 5,025 Cr. The company has shown phenomenal rise in terms of revenue and profit.
Risk factors are that the company has very high debt, promoters are reducing their holding and the pledged shares by promoters stands at 79.8% which is not a good sign for the comapny. So investing in this company can be connsidered very risky due to these factors.
Investing in such companies will make our portfolio diverse and as they are smallcap company, chance of giving multibagger returns are more from such companies.
Investing in such companies bring a high risk factor so please do your own analysis before investing.
Hope you learned something new from this post.
Do like, share and follow me. Thank you!
DigitalOcean ($DOCN) | Cloud Computing Powerhouse - AWS for SMBsNYSE:DOCN
DigitalOcean remains the only pure cloud computing company for small-to-medium-sized businesses (SMBs), offering a robust solution similar to AWS, but with a specific focus on cost-effectiveness and ease of use for smaller enterprises. The introduction of GPU droplets further strengthens its position in the market, catering to the growing need for AI and machine learning workloads.
Despite struggles with corporate governance, the company’s technology is top-tier, making NYSE:DOCN an attractive acquisition target for larger tech players. The stock has doubled in volume recently, indicating bullish momentum is building, and we believe this sets up for a breakout.
This is a long-term hold for those looking for high growth in the cloud sector. GPU droplets could accelerate this growth, positioning DigitalOcean as a critical player in a market poised for massive expansion. It is not too late to enter as we are just beginning to breakout. Should macro-driven events pull down the market, especially SMBs, we will be adding at key levels.
Our entries: $24.50, $31.50, $35, Breakout over $39
Targets: $50, $70, $80
DigitalOcean is not just a small player in the cloud space; it has a specific niche that positions it for explosive growth. As SMBs increasingly adopt cloud technologies, and with GPU droplets creating a new revenue stream, DigitalOcean is set to rise. While near-term volatility exists, the long-term growth story remains intact. Investors should look at this as a multi-year play, with opportunities to accumulate during any market weakness.
$JMIA | First on the Scene, Aiming for 5x-10x BaggerNYSE:JMIA
Jumia, often referred to as the "Amazon of Africa," presents a unique opportunity for long-term investors to tap into the rapidly expanding e-commerce landscape in Africa. Our analyst, Shay Boloor, was one of the first analysts to recognize its potential, and while the company has faced challenges, the long-term thesis remains intact. We have been scaling into position between $3.50 and $4.50 as well as adding Jan 2026 $5 Calls. Trading under $5, this is a steal for investors willing to endure the volatility that comes with small caps in an emerging market. For those with patience, the reward could be substantial, with the potential for a 5-10x return over the next five years.
Key Strengths and the Opportunity:
Capital Strength: Jumia has raised $200 million in capital, significantly reducing solvency risk, which now stands at near zero. This financial cushion provides the company with the flexibility needed to continue its strategic growth.
Long-Term Play: The stock might take time to reflect its true value as the narrative shift, much like we saw with companies like Snowflake and Unity Software, unfolds. Jumia's expansion will need time, but the thesis remains unchanged.
Small Position Allocation: Due to the inherent volatility of small caps, Jumia is a small position. However, it offers massive upside potential for those who can ride out the short-term fluctuations.
Market Context and Timing: We are currently in a phase of seasonal market weakness, where investors shift focus toward large-cap, defensive stocks. This shift makes small caps like Jumia more volatile and higher-risk in the near term. However, for the long-term investor, this is the moment to accumulate a position while others stay on the sidelines.
Range to Watch:
$5.40 to $14: This initial range represents the next key resistance levels as Jumia works its way up.
$14 to $21: Liquidity zone where price can move quickly.
Above $21: Should the stock break above this level, expect significant movement with liquidity zones extending to $27, $33, and potentially $40+.
This stock has remained a high-conviction play. Although Jumia remains a volatile stock, it is well-positioned to capture long-term growth in the African market, making it an excellent buy-and-hold for patient investors looking to capitalize on the next big e-commerce wave. This is a prime opportunity to snag the bottom for the next run-up.
Rotation - Growth Stocks > Value Stocks Growth Stocks:
Growth stocks are shares in companies expected to grow at an above-average rate compared to other companies in the market. These companies typically reinvest their earnings to accelerate growth in the short term rather than paying dividends.
Value Stocks:
Value stocks are shares in companies that appear to be undervalued by the market. These companies typically have stable earnings and often pay dividends. They are often found in more established industries like finance or utilities.
In different economic conditions, one type may outperform the other, leading to rotations between growth and value in the market cycle.
Analysis:
The stock market is currently experiencing a unique situation where major indices like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones are setting new highs, but this growth is primarily driven by a small number of large tech companies (the "Magnificent 7"). This has led to a significant divergence between growth and value stocks, with growth stocks outperforming.
Nvidia Stock Eyes Apple’s 2nd Spot After Monster 30% Gain in MayChip giant racked up nearly $700 billion in market cap last month and is on track to become the world’s second-largest company.
If you’ve been extremely online and following the headlines for a while, you know how this blog will kick off: Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ) crushed, smashed, and shattered all expectations while reporting record profits and revenue. The artificial intelligence (AI) bonanza is so strong it’s literally no-froth-gains-only out there.
Not that much in the loop? Let’s catch you up. For the fiscal first quarter, Nvidia reported record revenue of $26 billion, up 262% year-over year. Along the way, shares of the AI-focused company soared past $1,000 a pop and the stock is now threatening to overtake iPhone maker Apple (ticker: AAPL ) as the world’s second-largest company .
Blink and You’ll Miss It. You Blinked, Right?
Not that long ago — in March 2019 — Nvidia was a little-known GPU provider with its niche found in the gaming sector and the crypto mining corner. And, worth mentioning, it was chugging along as the 84th company in the world by market cap with shares changing hands at $30 a piece.
Fast-track to nowadays, Nvidia’s market cap hovers near $2.7 trillion after gaining a monster 3,755% from its March 2019 lows. It also swooped in as the third-biggest company globally, replacing Amazon (ticker: AMZN ).
Nvidia’s Big Gains Could Dethrone Apple
The AI mainstay picked up more than $700 billion, or 30%, in valuation over May as its shares hit a record high of $1,160. The big leap positioned the company’s market cap less than 10% shy of Apple’s $2.95 trillion. This said, another $250 billion and Nvidia will become the second-biggest company in the world, trailing Microsoft ( MSFT ), valued at $3.2 trillion. That is, if Apple stays where it is now.
The iPhone maker, on the other end of the spectrum, is having a rough year. The victim of a monopoly lawsuit , Apple is witnessing its shares linger around a 3% gain for the year, compared with Nvidia’s 130% rise.
What’s more, spiraling iPhone sales in China added to the brewing troubles.
Can Nvidia Sustain Its Bonkers Revenue Growth?
Looking forward, Nvidia expects to rack up revenue of $28 billion for the current quarter . Recent quarterly performance shows that this type of guidance is not only being met, but it’s being comfortably exceeded.
That’s what happens when you have big tech companies lining up to be your loyal customers. Nvidia is happily selling its hot hardware to the biggest and baddest out there — Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ), Google (ticker: GOOGL ), Tesla (ticker: TSLA ) and privately-held ChatGPT parent OpenAI are all scrambling to get their hands on the powerful chips made by Nvidia.
These heavyweights usually pre-order the good stuff and sign contracts worth billions and billions of dollars, allowing Nvidia to predict how much revenue it will bring in over a quarter.
Coming for That Margin
Investors poured hundreds of billions into Nvidia as they sought to capture the AI train. What this has done to the industry is to propel a single company to the forefront while leaving a huge gap for the rest of the companies that a) have ample amounts of cash to invest, and b) are looking to get a piece of the AI action.
Here’s Nvidia’s weak point: it boasts a huge profit margin. For the past quarter, Nvidia churned out a net income of $14.88 billion on its $26 billion revenue. That’s a clear invitation for other players in the ecosystem to swoop in and attack that profit margin.
Rivals such as AMD (ticker: AMD ) could be looking to get involved in the battle for margin and launch a product that’s slightly better, slightly faster, and slightly cheaper than what Nvidia is making. The incentive is there — the question is when will a rival roll out a competitive product worthy of attention?
Let’s Hear from You!
What’s your take on Nvidia and the AI race? Do you own Nvidia shares or maybe AMD shares? Join the discussion below.
$TSLA Might be About to Make a Big MoveTSLA has been compressing into a multi-year squeeze on the charts.
Whether it's the global economy going into a rough patch, the uncertainty of the 2024 US presidential election, or multiple wars happening in the East there seem to be a lot of potential market forces possibly pushing high multiple stocks down for the near future.
But Tesla as a company is on track for 50% YoY growth, completely dominating the global EV market while traditional OEMs pull back their EV efforts, Chinese OEMs struggle with margins, and other pure EV companies struggle to turn a profit at all.
Personally, I think TSLA will have a rough winter as the market hedges their bets on a market level, after which it will be primed for a huge upward breakthrough once the dust settles on the other side.
Investors Await Q1 ReportKey arguments in support of the idea.
▪ UNH stock has come under pressure from a series of adverse events,
though Q1 earnings may improve investor sentiment regarding further
UNH business growth potential.
▪ A good moment for buying, both fundamentally and technically.
Investment Thesis
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) engages in the provision of health insurance,
software, and related consulting services. UNH is the largest provider of
healthcare plans in the US.
In Early 2024, UNH’s Stock Came Under Pressure from Several
Adversities at Once . First, it is a cyberattack on Change Healthcare
services, that led to a temporary freeze on payments from medical
organizations. At the time of finalizing this report, UnitedHealth informed
that services were restored, and that it did not expect big implications for
financial results. However, market participants fear a one-time negative
impact on profitability in Q1 2024.
Shortly after the cyberattack, it was reported that the US Department of
Justice had initiated an antitrust investigation for examining the strength of
relationship between UnitedHealth’s insurance and medical business
divisions. The impact of the investigation is uncertain, and we do not
believe it to influence the stock in the short term.
Investors Were Disappointed by CMS’ Final Decision on Medicare
Advantage (MA) Payment Rates. On April 2, MA plan rate rises for 2025
compared to 2024 became finally known. The payout rate remained at the
proposed level of 3.7% y/y, disappointing investors looking for a bigger
increase. This caused a negative market reaction: UNH, the largest player,
ended the April 2 trading with a 9.3% drop. Some other major stocks
reacted that day accordingly: HUM (-13.4%), CVS (-7.2%), ELV (-3.3%).
The worsened MA business revenue expectations for 2025 are already
reflected in prices. However, the Optum segment’s organic growth
(OptumHealth, OptumInsight, and OptumRx) remains a strong point of the
Company and may support its Q1 2024 results that will be released on
April 16.
Expectations for Q1 Report. We think that investors will be focused on the
guidance for 2024. Management’s confirmation or improvement of the
existing guidance could dispel investor worries. Besides, we expect a
detailed commentary on the impact of the cyberattack and the MA rate
decision on financial results.
Now Is a Good Time to Buy. The P/E NTM ratio has decreased to 15.8,
which is lower than the Company’s all-time average of 18.8. The RSI has
dropped below 30 points, signaling a likely reversal. We consider UNH
shares’ current weakness as a good opportunity to buy, assuming that (1)
the impact of the approved MA 2025 rate is already reflected in prices, (2)
the cyberattack will have a one-time insignificant implication for UNH, and
(3) there is still a high demand in the MA market, and UNH remains the
largest and growing provider of healthcare plans.
The target price for UNH over a 2-month horizon is $495, which
corresponds to P/E NTM of 18. We recommend Buying and setting a
Stop Loss at $415.
SPX 🗝Diversify YOUR Portfolio: EVERYONE Needs to Know❕📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈
HAVE YOU EVER CONSIDERED DIVERSIFYING YOUR PORTFOLIO?
Given the high risk nature of trading, having a finger in every pie is a good idea. Stocks generally are less volatile than crypto, and index funds are a great way to gain exposure to a variety of top notch stocks.
If you have ever wondered about trading stonks, today's update is for YOU. Cryptocurrencies are the largest part of our focus, but that doesn't mean we don't consider other markets such as forex, commodities and stocks. So today, let's take a look at the SPX / S&P 500.
Index investing, especially in the S&P 500, streamlines stock market engagement. Investing here means tapping into America's corporate giants, offering long-term returns and simplicity, often outperforming active stock picking. Since 1957, the S&P 500 has offered a global economic snapshot, including key international corporations. Its careful selection process reflects market trends, focusing on criteria like market cap and liquidity.
The top 4 stocks in the SPX by weight are :
1) Microsoft Corporation / NASDAQ:MSFT
2) Apple Inc. / $AAPLE
3) Nvidia Corp / NASDAQ:NVDA
4) Amazon.com Inc. / NASDAQ:AMZN
# Company Portfolio%
1 Microsoft Corp 7.14%
2 Apple Inc. 6.36%
3 Nvidia Corp 4.24%
4 Amazon.com Inc 3.65%
To put it into perspective, the last 4 stocks are:
500) NASDAQ:NWL / Newell Brands Inc. Producer Manufacturing
501) NYSE:DXC / DXC Technology Company Technology Services
502) NYSE:AAP / Advance Auto Parts Inc. Retail Trade
503) NYSE:TPR / Tapestry, Inc. Retail Trade / with a market cap of 4,017,225,400
(There are actually 503 stocks in the S&P500).
From the above, we can clearly conclude that what happens in those top 4 markets, holds quite a lot more weight than the rest. This should give you a clue which ones to look at if you want to invest in additional stocks and not necessarily a fund.
To correctly identify the macro phase is to have power - this will eliminate fear and greed, and cancel out the noise you hear from news and "influencers". Looking at SPX from a monthly perspective, we can clearly identify a strong bullish trend as the market loses makes what seems to be UP ONLY and keeps on making higher highs.
By using the S&P 500 or the AMEX:VTI , you can more easily spot the macro trend of the stock market, and which way MOST of the stocks will go, especially the top few.
If you found this content helpful, please remember to hit like and subscribe and never miss a moment in the markets.
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CryptoCheck
SP:SPX NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AMZN
2U (Is e-education the future?) I stand before you to discuss the transformative power of e-education and its pivotal role in shaping the future of learning. As we navigate the dynamic landscape of education, e-learning emerges as a beacon of innovation, offering unprecedented opportunities for learners across the globe.
In this digital era, e-education transcends geographical boundaries, providing accessibility to knowledge regardless of one's location. The future of learning lies in the integration of technology into education, fostering a culture of continuous and personalized learning experiences.
Consider the vast potential of e-learning in reaching the global youth population. With an estimated 2.2 billion children worldwide, the digital realm offers a scalable solution to meet the diverse educational needs of this burgeoning demographic. E-education becomes a catalyst for inclusivity, breaking down barriers and ensuring that every child has the chance to access quality education.
The e-tech era has ushered in a wave of innovation, offering interactive and engaging platforms that cater to varied learning styles. Virtual classrooms, online resources, and collaborative tools redefine the educational landscape, preparing students for the demands of the digital future.
As we embrace the e-tech revolution, let us recognize the power it holds to democratize education. It empowers learners to chart their unique educational journeys, fostering a sense of ownership and curiosity. The future of e-learning promises a world where education is not confined to the classroom but extends beyond, seamlessly integrating into our daily lives.
In conclusion, let us champion e-education as the harbinger of a brighter, more accessible future of learning. Together, let us strive to harness the potential of technology to shape a world where every child, regardless of their circumstances, can embark on a journey of discovery and knowledge. Thank you.
Cross-Checking News Trading with Technicals on CARR-USDDear Esteemed Investors,
Everyone asked me to write an analytics on CARR. Although my forecasts achieved some success with this stock, let me remind you it's only a very small percentage of my portfolio. I can measure my exposure in hundreds of thousands, which is relatively small compared to my gold exposure, which I measure in millions. With that, I care about every one of my investments, and I hear your expectation to read analytics about this stock. Here you go.
Chart and Technical Indicators
CARR hit the target level of the last bullish forecast ($59.21 resistance), and technical indicators like MACD and RSI turned bearish. Under the chart, MACD shows bearish progress. Both MACD and RSI have a bearish cross on them. These are typical confirmations of resistance, and CARR hasn't defeated it yet. However, RSI still moves on the more bullish side of its chart, and MACD shows only a slight bearishness. It's not too late for CARR investors to continue the rally. Signs of continuation would be if RSI made a bullish cross again and MACD turned bullish. If they can break the mentioned resistance, a target of $61.12 is possible. With that said, the risk-reward ratio of a long isn't excellent here. So, I've taken profit of my long position from the last forecast. I estimate to open a new long if the price confirms support again around the $51.74 level. Breaking this support would suggest a downward trend rather than a healthy retracement. Downwards, the price can fall to lower trendlines below $48. If I open a new long, I'll use a tight stop loss setting.
News Trading: AI Natural Language Processing
Carrier Global has consistently delivered strong revenue growth in recent quarters, driven by higher demand for HVAC and refrigeration products. The company's recent acquisitions of Viessmann Climate Solutions and Honeywell's Global Access Solutions business expand its market reach and product portfolio. Carrier Global has a healthy balance sheet with a solid financial position. The company has the flexibility to invest in growth initiatives. The global HVAC and refrigeration markets can steadily in the coming years, driven by population growth, urbanization, and rising environmental concerns.
On the other hand, the ongoing supply chain disruptions have impacted Carrier Global's production and delivery of products, potentially affecting sales and profitability. Escalating inflation could put downward pressure on consumer spending on discretionary items such as HVAC and refrigeration products. The HVAC and refrigeration industry is highly competitive, with several players vying for market share. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential for global recession could dampen demand for Carrier Global's products.
Despite the potential headwinds, Carrier Global remains a well-positioned company with a strong track record of growth. The company's focus on innovation, strategic acquisitions, and expanding market reach should support its long-term growth prospects. However, investors should carefully monitor the company's ability to manage supply chain disruptions, inflation, and competitive pressures.
Disclaimer:
The success of my historic forecasts don't guarantee your future results. It's not an investment advice. Do your esearch. I wrote the analytics for entertainment purposes.
Kind regards,
Ely
India's Non-Stop Bullet Train - TEXRAIL - Choo Choo Train :)TEXRAIL turned out to be a Multi-bagger in 2023. The initial call was given at 64 for a target of 116, 136, 157. It blasted all 3 targets in less than 8 months resulting in a profit of more than 2.75x - Amazing Isn't it
Recently the Indian Govt has announced major investment of more than 1 Lakh Crores into Railways & Infrastructure and among the Railway Themed Stocks - TEXRAIL plays a prominent Role.
Our Multi-Timeframe Analysis shows following results
1. Monthly - Huge Cup & Handle BO done with targets of 240, 290
2. Daily - Even on the Shorter Term - It looks Super Bullish above 180 resistance levels. Another Smaller Cup & Handle BO done at Daily TF with target of 215
All we need is a strong close above 181-185 WCB for the Choo Choo Train to Blow its Horns and Chug along :)
Disclaimer:
Stocks-n-Trends is NOT a SEBI registered company. We do not provide Buy / Sell recommendations - rather we provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi--timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes. We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide" and consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions.
If you like our detailed analysis, please do rate us with your Likes, Boost and share your comments
-Team Stocks-n-Trends
UBER - ATH likely in 2024
I must admit despite all the TA I have tried with this name, profit has eluded me because most upward action has bee around ER. I have tried not hold big positions into ER, but this name has proved me wrong last three times.
Bounced off of 60 VMA nicely an caught fire. another test of 45 or flag above would set this up nicely for 60.
despite sluggish volume, this has help up really well. Suggests institutional ownership is high and when market conditions improve, this is likely to blast off.
No position
Pfizer's (PFE) Ulcerative Colitis Pill Etrasimod Gets FDA NodPfizer PFE announced that the FDA has granted approval to its oral, once-daily pill called etrasimod to treat moderately-to-severely active ulcerative colitis (UC). The oral, once-daily, selective sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) receptor modulator will be marketed by the brand name of Velsipity (2 mg dose).
The approval for etrasimod was based on data from two pivotal phase III studies, ELEVATE UC 52 and ELEVATE 12. These studies evaluated the safety and efficacy of a daily 2mg dose of oral etrasimod in UC patients who had failed treatment with a JAK inhibitor. Both studies achieved their primary endpoint of clinical remission over placebo and all key secondary endpoints.
An application seeking the approval of etrasimod is also under review in the EU, with a decision from the European Medicines Agency anticipated in first-half 2024.
Velsipity (etrasimod) was added to Pfizer’s inflammation and immunology portfolio with the March 2022 acquisition of Arena Pharmaceuticals.
The oral, once-daily pill for UC, a chronic condition, is an advanced therapy, which, if approved, will offer patients an opportunity to achieve steroid-free remission.
Pfizer’s stock has declined 37.4% so far this year against an increase of 8.5% for the industry.
Unveiling Alibaba's Secrets: A Technical Analysis of Its Future NYSE:BABA
Based on the weekly ElliotWaves analysis , BABA is currently in a corrective wave structure. The corrective wave structure is a complex wave pattern that can take many different forms. However, the most common corrective wave structure is a three-wave ABC pattern.
BABA appears to be in the wave B of the corrective wave structure. Wave B is a retracement of wave A.
We can expect to see BABA continue to move higher in the coming weeks . However, it is important to note that wave B retracements can be sharp and volatile, so we may have a final push on the downside, before the long-term uptrend begins.
Therefore, it is important to be cautious when trading BABA during the wave B retracement and a stronger price confirmation is needed.
BABA's RSI is currently at approx. 50, which is neutral territory. This suggests that BABA is neither overbought nor oversold. However, the RSI is trending higher, which suggests that BABA is likely to continue to move higher in the coming weeks.
BABA's MACD is currently above its signal line, which is a bullish signal. This suggests that BABA is likely to continue to move higher in the coming weeks.
Potential Direction of BABA on a Weekly Timeframe
Based on the ElliotWaves, RSI, MACD, and other technical tactics, BABA is likely to continue to move higher in the coming weeks. However, it is important to note that the market is unpredictable and there is always the possibility of a trend reversal. Therefore, it is important to be cautious when trading BABA and to use a stop-loss order to protect your profits.
I hope this post is helpful.
This analysis represents is based on the information at the date it is posted.
This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice.
You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
Any feedback is encouraged and appreciated. Thank you and have a nice day!
NASDAQ 100’s special rebalance On 24 July, the NASDAQ 100 Index conducted a special rebalance to reduce the concentration of the so-called ‘magnificent seven’ in the index. The seven stocks whose strong performance this year has driven the index are Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, and Meta.
The index is typically reconstituted annually in December, with additional rebalancing opportunities each quarter. A special rebalance outside the usual schedule is only happening for the third time in the index’s history, with the first two having been in December 1998 and May 2011. According to NASDAQ, a special rebalance may be triggered if the aggregate weight of companies individually accounting for more than 4.5% of the index tops 48%. Based on this, NASDAQ announced its plan to rebalance the index on 7 July. The new weights were applied before the start of trading on 24 July.
What happened in the past?
Strong rallies in tech stocks were behind the special rebalances both in May 2011 and December 1998. In 2011, Apple was among the stocks that saw its weight being reduced notably following a period of strong performance. And in 1998, it was Microsoft1. Performance of the index following the two rebalances does not give much to go by. Following the rebalance in December 1998, the NASDAQ 100 continued on its upward trend while the index was weighed down following the rebalance in May 2011.
What it means for investors
For investors looking to position themselves tactically to benefit from this development, arguments can be made to support both bullish and bearish cases. Passive money tracking the NASDAQ 100 Index will be forced to sell the biggest names on Wall Street which have made a significant contribution to the index’s performance this year. This could create some volatility in the short-term especially given the special rebalance has happened in the middle of the earnings season and market sensitivity to announcements may be heightened. Already in the week of 17 July, when Tesla and Netflix announced their earnings, markets reacted adversely to their cautious outlook for the third quarter. This also means that it would be hard to completely isolate the impact of the rebalance on stock prices. A dip in prices may, however, may be seen by some investors as an entry point.
But while the move from NASDAQ is aimed at reducing the concentration of the biggest tech names in the index, the special rebalance does not mean that the NASDAQ 100’s risk profile has changed materially. The index follows a modified market capitalisation methodology which means that, subject to some limits of influence, the biggest companies will still occupy the largest weight. The index, therefore, continues to give investors a way to capture the sentiment in growth stocks, bullish or bearish.
In some of our recent blogs, we have also emphasised how the NASDAQ 100 is not a way to capture specific tech megatrends such as artificial intelligence (AI), despite investor sentiment towards AI driving the fortunes of some of the top names in the index. Dedicated AI strategies, such as the NASDAQ CTA Artificial Intelligence Index, tend to have relatively low overlap with the NASDAQ 100. Again, the rebalance does not fundamentally change this.
Closing word
The NASDAQ 100 Index was launched in 1985. This is only its third special rebalance in almost four decades. For an index which is focused on growth stocks, it signifies how contributors to performance have been concentrated right at the top this year. For tactical investors, there may be opportunities in the short-term resulting from this. For others, it may be a reminder of the need for diversification.
Sources
1 Source: CNBC report from 05 April 2011
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Displacement Technology Watch: $QSWith a lot of attention ahead of its earnings report, NYSE:QS had a volatile reaction to the report yesterday, but it is one of several companies vying for dominance in Solid State Battery technology. Auto parts are a niche sub-industry of Electric Vehicles to pay attention to for both short term and long term.
From the weekly chart: The stock is building a bottom after a huge speculative run up after it IPO'd and is now in a basing bottom formation.
QuantumScape was on the NASDAQ Private Market before it IPO'd. Plenty of banks underwrote it and many Preferred Clients, aka Giant Buy Side Institutions, invested during its NASDAQ Private Placement. So it had a respectable amount of investment money to start moving forward faster.
On the daily chart, we can see NYSE:QS had a pre-earnings run that hit resistance which was followed by profit-taking ahead of the report. Pro traders started the run up out of what looks to be a Dark Pool Buy Zone and smaller funds chased, which is often a precursor to a volatile earnings reaction. The stock has a low Percentage of the Shares Held by Institutions at this time, which is another factor that contributes to heightened volatility, but it's one to watch as the EV landscape expands.
Discounted GrowthRev Growth YoY and FWD are 50 and 23% respectively and 307 and 167% above the sector respectively while PE GAAP TTM and FWD are 71 and 65% below sector! This implies a huge discount in growth.
Gross Profit does lag behind the sector by about 12%, but the valuation combined with the outsized growth substantially off-sets this disparity.
On a technical note, there is an intermediary "W" pattern. Confirmation of this pattern would be realized once the SP closes above the midpoint peak of @25.75 along w/ substantial volume, 3 day rule, etc. Pattern and targets are also correlated with Fibonacci retracement levels and Fib Time series.
Undervalued GrowthCOHR caught my attention for a few reasons.
1st. It is ≈11% of total holding of Scion Asset Mngt holdings, one of the best performing funds since 2008.
2. Technical: SP trading in demand zone, appearing to possibly be in process of forming a double bottom- confirmed on 3 day rule, vol, etc. passing 46.46 area.
3. Valuation: Currently at steep discount to competitors despite continual growth in earnings. significantly below sector by almost every metric... EV/EBITDA TTM 16% below; FWD- 40% below, P/S TTM/ FWD- 63/65% respectively, Price/ CF- 79% below. Trading about 50% below 5 year PB and 55% 5 year P/Cash flow.
4. Growth: Rev Growth YoY 177% above sector; FWD-116% above sector, significantly above sector by almost every metric besides ROE.
Strong Revenue Growth, Outstanding Execution!Morning*'s valuation implies 2024 EV/Sales multiple of 5.5x.
Forecasted Revenue growth 24% annualized rate over next five years!
TTM Rev Growth YoY was 43%; 206% above sector median! Rev FWD growth is 26% or 142% above sector median.
Expected to become profitable on adjusted OpMargin basis next year and GAAP profitable in 2027 in line with current models as long as Okta continues to execute its growth strategy via investing in sales and research divisions.
The purple area target is my own personal target within time frame expected based on probabilities.