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Inflation Update. Possible first wave?CPI-U is reported at 8.5%. The alternate CPI-U from 1990 has inflation around 12%. The alternate CPI-U 1980 has inflation around 16.5%. This has triggered the markets sentiment that inflation is over to go hog wild on it's Goldilocks targets and head higher on the SPX. To bring inflation down to the target of the FED now becomes the discussion. The market is seeking the fastest way to get the tightening cycle to stop. Like an addict searching for their next hit the question is how thick will the sugar coating get before the sun rays from the new recession and its implications dissolve the deep snow pack. Boy is it a blizzard coming down. The two paths from here are #1 does the market whine that inflation is coming down fast enough now so the FED over did it tightening rates and this recession is bad so please print me some dopamine. Or #2 is inflation going to come down fast enough for growth to bottom out and rebound higher so the FED can stop and print me some dopamine to stimulate the bottom of the trend to have the downturn be as short as possible. Either way the next 6 months will be the market trying to cajole the FED into please print some more money. The wider trend after that is the classic hyperinflation trend. A small inflation wave that wakes up the public to inflation. Followed by a small deflation wave to catch market participants off guard and make money. Followed by an over correction and printing of currency resulting in a bigger second inflation wave. Followed by a second larger deflation wave with further over correction and printing. Finally causing a rollercoaster crash into hyperinflation where inflation jumps from 20% to 700% in a month. This takes years to play out and is by no means guaranteed but definitely a model to keep in mind. If such a rollercoaster crash plays out hard assets are the name of the long game while volatile assets are the name of the short game. Real estate, and gold, with Bitcoin and ETH as insurance purchased at the bottom of deflation waves just as the FED pivots. Short term moves into and out of energy and food commodities for 3-6 month positions during inflation waves depending on market information. Stay safe out there. See you on the moon.
SP:SPXShort
by GreatScottTheMoon
1
$HDSN Review: 5/5 ⭐️In 11 months, I’ve turned $680 into $1660 with this stock so far. I think this stock is still incredible & I am holding because it has these factors: REVENUE GROWTH: ✅ NET INCOME GROWTH: ✅ EPS GROWTH: ✅ SMALL CAP: ✅ NO LARGE EXTERNAL FACTOR? ✅ Join my “Long-Term Stock/Crypto” group chat if you want to discuss more about my current rating of this stock. Too much to post here -Shared from PersonaFi iOS App “See what the best traders, backed by portfolio performance, are buying and selling in real-time.”
AMEX:DITLong
by Catman122
Looking for higher highs?, $GDYN has themGrid Dynamics accelerate digital transformation of Fortune-1000 US enterprises. They specialize in customer experience, data analytics, and cloud. They compite with the likes of NYSE:EPAM , NASDAQ:CYBR and NSE:INFY . The price made its lowest low in mid March and since then has made a good bull run. Now $GDYN is making a good looking descending triangle, the only bad things is that it price is below the 50-day. Still, as we are currently in a bear market, this is the kind of charts that I'm looking for. RELATIVE STRENGTH is the name of the game now. Combine this with the good fundamentals it has and it should be a next leader. I'll wait and see.
NASDAQ:GDYNLong
by dpuleo19
DUOL Overview and Prediction In the most recent two-quarters, DUOL has sold off ahead of earnings and then rebounded sharply after reporting earnings beats. Coming into this quarter price action is reversed. DUOL has experienced a strong rally from a quarter ago, clocking in over a 50% gain from the lows of their Q1 2022 earnings in May. This bullish short-term momentum might just be stomped out by this quarter's earnings. The technical picture for DUOL is somewhat poor, especially in recent trading days. The support trend line has held nicely with three consecutive touches and rebounds. However, with a major event coming up (earnings on 8/4), DUOL may slide well below this support trend line and revisit support zones at/around 84.8, 75.4, and 66.55. The recent bull run makes me increasingly confident in this thesis, as earnings would have to be out of this world positive for any substantial upside gain in my opinion. Fundamentally, DUOL appears weak. Simply put, Duolingo is overvalued and generates negative profits. There are way too many macroeconomic/geopolitical issues for tech and growth to perform well (at least for the coming 2-3 years). The idea that DUOL, an IPO with no earnings and expected revenue for this year at 267 mil should be valued anywhere near 4 billion dollars seems a bit foolish. Duolingo's weak technical and fundamental health combined with an unprecedentedly problematic global macro picture prompt me to predict the following: It is a matter of time until this stock falls and eventually forms new lows. It may not be this quarter's earnings that trigger DUOl's stock to move lower, but it will happen eventually... unprofitable growth is the wrong place to be in this environment. As always this is not meant to be trading advice. Good luck!
NASDAQ:DUOLShort
by Gooby_Trades
Mid-Cap Growth This is a 6-month chart of iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF (IWP) relative to the performance of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). IWP tracks a market-cap-weighted index of growth companies. The yellow and orange lines are the exponential moving averages that form the indicator called the EMA exp ribbon. The EMA exp ribbon usually acts as support when price hits it from above, and usually acts as resistance when price hits it from below. To break the EMA exp ribbon, and reverse the trend, usually, a single candlestick must pierce through the ribbon (moving averages) with high volume and strong momentum. In this case, the EMA exp ribbon held up as support. Here we see that mid-cap growth stocks have corrected on the longer timeframes and will likely start to move back up relative to SPY. If this holds true, we can expect that mid-cap growth stocks will begin to outperform the broader index over the long term. For those who invest on longer time horizons, this could be a great time to consider legging into IWP. If you're conservative, you may wish to wait for IWP to breakout above the daily EMA exp ribbon before entering a position. The current 6-month candle, which started on July 1st, is showing a long upper wick, which indicates that capitulation is still occurring. Capitulation can be seen in candlesticks that occur after a long downtrend, and which have long upper wicks. These long upper wicks after a long downtrend indicate that there are people selling, or shorting, into strength. These market participants usually need to exit before a major bullish breakout occurs. For the month of June, IWP/SPY printed a bullish spinning top candle (which is a bottom reversal candle). So it's likely that we're in the final stages of capitulation, and soon enough a bullish breakout will occur, (assuming that the relative performance chart accurately predicts price action).
AMEX:IWPLong
by SpyMasterTrades
NDX 100 WARNING: ABC wave C may reach 10500 or even 9500Since last week I have been warning that there will be a short oversold rally after FED testimonies in Congress & Senate but the worst is not yet over despite retailers rushing to buy the dip & exchanges trying very hard to keep BTC above the impt 20k in order to prevent mass selling. NDX Nasdaq 100 has been making a downchannel since it turned down after completing wave B @15265. The most probable support is at 10500, which is a 36% crash from ATH. 10500 (double my yellow box) is also a confluence of the 0.618 retracement from pandemic low to ATH & the weekly wma200 level. If 10500 fails then the pre-pandemic top @9500 will be the maximum pain, which is a 42% drop from ATH of 16764. After ABC ends, the target levels for take profit will be 12k & 13k respectively indicated by blue arrows. Not trading advice
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by xtremerider8
3
AAPL new low broke 133 Fib 0.618 & weekly cloud; next stop @120AAPL failed to hold 133 the Fib 0.618 level. It also closed slightly below its recent low & the weekly cloud. This turns the 133 from support to resistance if AAPL does not reclaim it quickly. The next support zone will be the 120 to 117 green box, very near wma 150. Coincidentally, 120 will also be a 200% retracement of the last rally from 150 to the high of 179.35. The capitulation started last week from 152 may not be over yet, with AAPL forming a steeper down channel targeting 120 instead of the previous channel targeting only 133. A big M-pattern may be forming making wave 4 a running flat. Not trading advice
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by xtremerider8
GOOGL WARNING: If 2025 is lost, 1786 will be very fastGoogle is still in a big red channel downtrend sine the ATH at 3042 failing to hold even the median line last week. The lower red channel at 2025 will be tested. If Google loses the 0.50 Fibo retracement, there will be a totally blank space (green box) until the next Fibo 0.618 at 1786. The decline will be very very quick. This capitulation most likely to happen after some impt catalyst event. Then a reversal will follow after 1786 holds. BULLISH CASE: if the black VWAP from pandemic low holds (also near 2025), Google will most probably just bounce off the lower red channel making a divergence with a slightly lower low before rally. Not trading advice
NASDAQ:GOOG
by xtremerider8
Farewell to Growth? Not so soon! ☝🏻INVESTMENT CONTEXT The evacuation of Ukrainian troops from the Azovstal plant in port-city Mariupol suggests that Russia may be taking the final steps to seize control of the area McDonald's (MCD) and Renault (RNO) announced the full exit from Russia. MCD will sell its operations in the country for USD 1.2-1.4bn write-down, whilst RNO assets in Russia were nationalized Negotiations are stalling to persuade Turkey not to veto the entry of Sweden and Finland to NATO. Turkey resents both for refusing to extradite Kurdish dissidents Shanghai's lockdown measures may ease, as the city has reported no new COVID cases for the third consecutive day Sri Lanka’s new prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, said the country has reached its last day of fuel supply, as default on international debt looms Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) scooped USD 3bn Citigroup (CITI) stock PROFZERO'S TAKE Analysts are seeing a remarkably dovish tone in the words of President Vladimir Putin, who said the proposed NATO enlargement posed “no direct threat for Russia”, and that he had “no problems” with either Finland or Sweden joining. ProfZero's eyes are now looking above, chasing further reconciliation signs from the other half of the heavens After ploughing more than USD 51.1bn in U.S. stocks in Q1 2022, particularly in energy (Occidental Petroleum, OXY) and Value-style technology (IBM, Activision Blizzard, ATVI) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) binge on Value continued with a USD 3bn bet on Citigroup (CITI). All this, while Saudi Aramco overtakes Apple as the world's most valuable company, feasting on +82% net income on Q1 2022 vs. one year before. ProfZero sees the capital flow as possibly marking the end of an era for at least the frothier fringes of the Growth segment. Still, it's challenging to imagine the post-pandemic, post-war world without innovation in the driving seat on all fronts - energy (smart grids), finance (digital currencies, decentralized exchanges), healthcare (applications of genome mapping), transportation (smart cities, sustainable movement). As hard as it is to call for an opportunity now - is it really by chance that inflows to Cathie Wood flagship ARK fund are up USD 1.5bn since the beginning of the year, right while it was snapping 860,000 more Coinbase shares (COIN)? After TerraUSD project collapse, nervousness remains high in the stablecoin space. Ever since Tether briefly lost its peg to USD on May 12, over USD 7bn positions were pulled from USDT, sending the market capitalization of the project down by 9%. ProfZero remains convinced of the importance of stablecoins as mediums to bridge and create confidence between the legacy transactional world and fully embracing cryptocurrencies as means to exchange value - one of the rare wedges where Regulators could meaningfully step in and act concretely to establish investors' trust BTC is trading range-bound around USD 30k gravity. Albeit it successfully shrug off the risk of further meltdown below USD 25k in the wake of LUNA collapse, it is not supported by sufficient buy-side pressure to call the bottom. ProfZero still believes the eventual point (C) of a bear Elliott wave sits just below USD 30k, which could function as platform for a ramp to reclaiming USD 40k in the near term, before a final capitulation in the low USD 20ks. To ProfZero discouraged readers - BTC has seen multiple 80% peak-to-trough plunges, the last one no later than in Q1 2020. Another disruption of that magnitude would locate the next min at ca. USD 13k. Would that undermine the wealth of blockchain as the technology for the next era? Iron Maiden used to sing "Fear of the Dark"; not "Fear of the Future"
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
2
ES - Logical area for shorts to step back 200 DMA on 3D chart near 3840 should offer solid support could squeeze, but given how intense selling has been, I don't think the bottom in yet. One more R2G capitulation move below 3840 is what I think would take for a real relied rally. Growth names started selling before the indices did, and now select a few growth names are showing strength, so I'd watch for follow through before Index catches up. target 4020/30 on the current move, pullback and retest of the lows around 3860.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CheelooTrader
AMD - A Mighty Decline... to $18NOT SO BULLISH CASE AMD today announced decent earnings and had a very good bounce off a small decline recently. Aided by less hawkish noises from the Fed mulling a 'soft landing', the market lapped it up - with AMD rallying almost 10% for the day. The reversal was quick and pronounced. With perhaps more juice to squeeze out of this green lime, it would need to reclaim and begin and sustain a new uptrend above $120 if the bull-trend is to continue. BEAR CASE With all that being said, there are many more reasons to be bearish . I therefore favour a short position in the region of $105, with a $120 stop-loss. Here is why: 1. TOP OF EXPONENTIAL CHANNEL Firstly, there are an awful lot of similarities here when comparing us to May 1985. Beginning a recent breakdown below the 50 week MA trend line in the main chart, after a parabolic decade. We're also moving downwards generally from the top of the exponential channel. In the past, these movements have coincided with significant corrections for this stock as we'll explore. We recently lost the 50 MA, we've now just re-tested the underside of that, providing us with a great risk-reward entry of 8:1. The bottom of the channel currently sits at $13 and a prior horizontal pivot point (dotted line) of $9 should also provide good support. Getting all the way to $13 would still represent a 82% decline from today's prices and 88% from all-time highs. 2. RSI BEAR ZONE You'll also notice the 2nd indicator below, showing the RSI has just commenced and triggered a new bearish zone. Dropping below 40 on the weekly chart for the first time since November 2017. In future posts I will go into further detail as to how & why these custom indicators work. In the absence of this, it's still abundantly clear to see from prior periods in the RSI bear zone, that these have triggered significant declines over the years: 86% - May 1985 to November 1990 (5.5 years) 86% - July 2000 to October 2002 (2.5 years) 92% - May 2006 to December 2008 (2.5 years) A decline of 82% from $105 to $18 should not be unexpected. 3. FRACTAL Taking the same bar pattern from the 1975 to 1985 period and condensing it down into fewer years - we have generated similar logarithmic gains from 6 years instead of 10. This would also suggest a quicker but still slow'ish grind to the downside, potentially to as low as $18 by December 2025. 4. FUNDAMENTALS With such huge shipping disruptions forthcoming in Asia, the market may still be unaware of the forthcoming impact on availability of product and therefore their manufacturing/foundry capabilities for the quarters ahead. On AMD's website discussing Supply Chain Responsibility, they reference that 80% of their manufacturing is done in Asia still to this day. They are very much dependent upon Taiwanese subcontractors. Even without any further deterioration in the conditions and the lockdowns in that part of the world, I would argue this as well as any other geopolitical issues have not been priced in to their forward performance. AMD is still priced to perfection. Below are some of the risks they mention on their annual report, including many others (removed for readability): Global economic and market uncertainty may adversely impact our business and operating results. The loss of a significant customer may have a material adverse effect on us. The ongoing novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic could materially adversely affect our business. The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical and has experienced severe downturns. IT outages, data loss, data breaches and cyber-attacks could compromise our intellectual property or other sensitive information. Uncertainties involving the ordering and shipment of our products could materially adversely affect us. If we lose Microsoft ... our ability to sell our products could be materially adversely affected. If we cannot adequately protect our technology or other intellectual property... we may lose a competitive advantage and incur significant expenses. We rely on third parties to manufacture our products, and if they are unable to do so on a timely basis in sufficient quantities and using competitive technologies, our business could be materially adversely affected. If essential equipment, materials, substrates or manufacturing processes are not available to manufacture our products, we could be materially adversely affected. SUMMARY As uplifting as the above sounds, there's an opportunity here for us. Let's come back and revisit this one in 6 months time. Even if you're not short, avoiding such a bad time to go long is advised! Crossing below the top of the green channel recently indicated to take profits and now we've just got a sell signal...so it's time to take it...
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by DigiDavid
5
$SE Wild swing +/- 30$ up to earning report. now at 120Recent 3 peaks rejected from the red cloud as expected. now if it can go up thru that cloud and close above 135-136 again then targets will be 140-156-175 and can be extended to 210-230 if earning report surprised investors. ER will be at 22-5 ... from other side, support at 110-104-95 gap closing will works good as bounce levels. If break below 95 then possible to make lower low between 65-70 which is wild bearish target and will give investor very strong entry point for long term investment but unless market melt down this is not probable . more likely its for uptrend but could take sometime.
NYSE:SELong
by WinnerTrader99
2
#UBER fib leveles #UBER so if the fib levels are correct from our most recent swing low we wicked that .768 level and bounced off for a potential short term opportunity for calls to the upside at the 34, 35, 36 strike as there is a huge level at 37.50, looking at some flow data 35 strike for the 20th of may has 67 thousand OI sitting on it now 40 has 41 thousand both of which are interesting to me. looks like most short dated contracts are looking at that May 20th date or the Jan 2023
NYSE:UBERLong
by Stock_Hustle21