JOB MARKET in 10Y : what to expect in a stagflation environmentHere's my take on the multiple outcomes the job market. Looking at the REAL data, not the bullshit cooked numbers of the labor bureau ! The U6 numbers are the closest one to the reality. So these are the ones we'll study here along with interest rates, market valuations and growth potential.
Growth-stocks
NIO stock analysis using my boxes strategyToday I am taking a look at a Chinese EV manufacturer NYSE:NIO stock price movement.
NYSE:NIO stock price has been moving mostly sideways since the end of last year.
Price was trapped in between two major supply and demand areas: 30.5 and 54.5. This area is outlined by a big box.
The only exception was the breakout on January 2021, but price quickly reversed after rejection from the trend-line at 66.7 level.
Key points of analysis:
Boxes capture consolidation of a price range or simpler a sideways movement.
Stock price trends after a box breakout to test support/resistence.
When you see this kind of movement in price the best strategy for a shorter-term trading is buying at the support levels and selling at the next resistence.
My outlook for the stock:
I believe it will go higher in the shorter term to test 47-49 levels.
Trade wisely and good luck!
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Disclaimer!!!
This is not financial advise.
Our Globalized WorldNow that Q3 earnings season it is time to return to the fundamentals. In light of the current turmoil in the middle east, today we will talk about globalization. One of the most interesting things about global financial markets is that they are all connected in one way or another. I like to compartmentalize globalization into two general categories supply chains and political influences. In today’s episode, we will focus on supply chains.
When providing context into supply chains, I do not think there is a better example than Apple’s iPhone. Of course, the iPhone was designed back in Cupertino, CA, but the supply chain runs into multiple different countries. The complexity is mind-boggling, there are over 175 individual components. Additionally, the design and assembly of these components also happen in distinct parts of the world, in the US and China. The complexity is all done in an attempt to reduce costs by outsources cheap parts and labor but it also comes with associated risks. If one link in the chain breaks then the probability of success is essentially broken. A perfect example of this is the automotive industry. Following the reopening of countries around the world due to the COVID-19 induced shut down, assembly lines around the world were closed. As things ramp back up, a delay in a single component, no matter how minimal, can cause significant disruptions.
Another inlet to the supply chain is shipping channels. Back in March 2021, there was an incident with a cargo ship that became barged in the Suez Canal. If you are unfamiliar with the Suez Canal, it significantly reduces travel time from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic. The bargain is not only delayed the individual ship but every ship behind it. This created delays throughout the global shipping community that results in months and millions in delays. This is example is not limited to boats but can be seen in any transportation medium, such as the hacking of the Colonial Pipeline which created petroleum shortages across the East coast. Supply chain disruptions could hit any industry at any time.
The most significant feature of this trend is that shipping rates have been rising for over 30 years and there is no end to the trend. Even in the COVID-induced recession shipping rates rose. As companies optimize costs through increased globalization, the risk of supply chain disruptions also increases a counterproductive tradeoff.
Personally, I like and own the company $GSL which will benefit from the crosswinds either way. The company owns and operates shipping vessels around the world. As volumes increase their pricing power expands. In the unlikely scenario where volumes begin to decrease they will still maintain market share and become cash flowing machine. Additionally, if the industry consolidates then decreasing shipping rates will incentivize companies to continue to invest abroad. The company had a couple of problematic years due to the increased political tension during Donald Trump’s tariff-friendly administration but has been on the rise ever since. If there is a continued globalization-friendly administration the stock could continue to outperform. In particular general performance to the DJT (Dow Transportation Index), it has been a laggard. Potential for mean-reversion?
Is Amazon.com Ready to Break Out?Amazon.com has consolidated since last August. Now it may be ready for a breakout, especially with the Nasdaq leading again.
Friday’s close of $3,510.98 was AMZN’s second-highest close ever. It was also the highest close since September 2, a potential sign of investors accepting prices above $3,500.
Next, consider that last peak 10 months ago. It marked a frenzied peak in both AMZN and the broader Nasdaq (amid stock splits by Apple and Tesla.)
This is evident with the help of our Distance from MA custom script. It shows that AMZN was more than 50 percent above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) last summer, the highest reading since November 2009. It took the bulls 9-10 months to regain their energy after that earlier push. If that precedent holds, it would suggest prices are now due for another breakout.
Another precedent could be fellow large-cap growth stock Nvidia. Notice how the semiconductor stock approached its old peak on May 24 and had a slight pullback, followed by a breakout to new highs. AMZN’s price action last week resembles the recent behavior in NVDA.
Finally MACD has been steadily rising on AMZN’s weekly chart.
Apart from the technicals, AMZN is starting a new chapter with Andy Jassy replacing Jeff Bezos as CEO. It’s also set to report quarterly results around July 29. Given its history of strong numbers the last several quarters, the approaching event could provide a tailwind for the shares.
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Are the Bulls Finding a Home with Zillow?Like many small growth stocks, Zillow pulled back hard between mid-February and mid-May. And like many small growth stocks, it’s now showing signs of returning to life.
Notice ZG’s basing pattern above $105 in the last two months. This is a sign of stability as selling pressure abates and buyers get comfortable with triple digits.
Next are the closes above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in three of the last four sessions. That marks a charge for ZG, which had been trapped under that line since early March.
The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has also risen above the 21-day EMA, a sign of shorter-term momentum getting more bullish. Again, it’s the first time this has happened in a lasting way since early March.
Fourth, notice how MACD has been rising steadily for the last month.
Finally, you have the falling trendline along the highs of March and April. ZG has recently been breaking free of that resistance as well.
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Is $CHWY a $100 stock?
*Before reading the information in this please understand the risks associated with both the stock market and investing as a whole. ALWAYS do your own research; invest with conviction, rather than emotion.*
*Please understand I am in no way a professional and offering investment advice, all ideas shared are simply opinion.*
*I work with a team of individuals that does research into potentially undervalued publicly traded companies. We use a mix of fundamental and trend analysis to formulate a trading plan for our securities.*
My team and I have had our eye on Chewy ($CHWY) for some time, and in its current bullish trend we believe this pet-good provider has potential for both short and long term growth. Their most recent earnings report was a breath of fresh air, going against analyst expectation of reported loss. We believe that in its current operations, Chewy could potentially control their market simply based on the large variety of products they provide, as well as the level of convenience they bring their customers. Their lack of a brick-and-mortar setup allows convenient direct-to-consumer distribution, cutting out the middleman of a company such as Petco ($WOOF).
The Coronavirus pandemic shifted consumer wants and needs, many consumers are searching for convenience in the delivery of their goods, and Chewy's operations have been set up to provide that convenience since its founding. Many companies have had to shift their operations to meet this demand, while Chewy has been able to grow in its operations in the past year; the company is in the midst of a 70% growth spurt from in a one year period. We believe this company is worth a share price of $100, and we believe its current valuation of $80 per share is low. My team secured an entry on Friday afternoon.
ENTRY: $80
STOP LOSS: $70
TAKE PROFIT 1: $95
TAKE PROFIT 2: $100
TAKE PROFIT 3: $110
Check out my team over at @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
Members of our team are followed there.
$QS PT $32 (up to $39) [End of Year]There has been a lot of negative media around $QS but this is because they adjusted their approach to developing those batteries, transitioning to a safer and more practical method of battery development. With that said, QuantumScapes CEO stated in an interview on April 28, 2021, that his firm expects to have major deliverables by the end of the year.
Fundamentally, $QS is a sound start-up that continues to meet milestones; financials and operational cash-flow is healthy, suggesting higher intrinsic value than what is present. There is much more information but for the sake of time, they are meeting the major criteria to be considered a quality stock.
Technically, they have stepped into accumulation phase with buy signals coming from the bollinger band, oscillators, RSI, and MACD. As well, volume depletion has weakened, suggesting that buyers will re-enter the market soon!
Happy Investing!
When both technicals and fundamentals confluence$MP, the rare earth materials company, has reported great quarterly reports in the past year, and this year that proves it is pacing firmly to become a very sound investment in the course of electrification and the global clean energy campaign. After a 55% decline, the price became ripe for a good entry if you missed the train in the first place or add to an existing position. Today, a bounce from the 200 SMA confirms that $MP is on its way to higher targets namely: 39, 48, 64, 69, 89, and 97 in the coming months and years. This is a promising and pretty much a safe bet for those who are patient and want to surf on the wave of electrification regardless of the sector or the companies that fight for it to get a good share of the billions of dollars spent in the next 5 to 10 years. My target for the next 12 months was around $40, but if we continue with the momentum that we have seen in the past few days in the growth stock, we should be there this year. This is not investment advice, DYODD!
What's next for DKNG? Part 1What's next for DKNG? I'll be providing two other posts, please make sure you check those out as well after reading this. There's a lot of juice behind this stock right now.
As you can see from the chart, DKNG had a clear breakthrough below the 200 day SMA. This line of support had massive volume (VPVR) at the 51 level, the 200 day SMA line at 51, as well as massive psychological support at the 50. All broken through yesterday. Right now, the play is to find the bottom, but where is it? Are we too soon?
For the retail bros, it looks like all is lost, and this shit is going to zero. But... check out RSI and my follow up post.
First global 5g/4g global satellite network and Lassonde curve.First ever global 4g/5g cellular phone network beeing built by $ASTS seems to follow similar market mechanisms and psychologies as that of junior mining operations: The Lassonde curve, with it’s two waves of share price increase.
Only competitor so far (possible duopoly) is Lockheed Martin and Omnispace cooperstion.
Technology is proven with Bluewalker 1 satellite. Huge TAM, small market cap. Founder shares in lockup for 12 months.
There was an manipulation down starting April 6, which is in steep reversal presenting an excellent entry opportunity. Well timed public offering in first wave means first phase fully financed.
Institutional ownership increasing signals exit of orphan period, entering development phase of Lassonde curve. Optimal entry.
NIO correction about to be overThe chart is self-explanatory.
Previous "Bear Market" for this stock was -61% ---> this is considered normal, for such a growth stock
(Go check historical corrections of AAPL, and see that regardless of large percent corrections, the stock did new highs).
If the price will go to $26 we would expect the price to hold that level and try to test for the high.
As with the previous patterns, RSI was below 30, now we want the price to confirm with upward momentum.
PUBM in wedge pattern but burning a lot of cash in SG&A expensesPUBM is in a wedge price pattern but a lot of cash is being used and not for R&D. A growth stock with a lot of revenue, but it doesn't show in the R&D budget. I don't see input factors that can push this stock higher currently. Will need to wait till the next quarter.
PD: Still as bullish as ever. Best entry into the name since NovPD is still one of my favorite picks in 2021. The recent sell-off in high multiple names has wrongfully been aimed at PD. PD has a modest multiple when compared to other software names/peers. The stock dipped into the oversold region of RSI and is now just barely above it. Also very bullish that it held the 200SMA. Please look at my earlier PD notes to see my full thesis on the name.
Optimistic on GOMRFWe do not generally trade this, but this is an enticing looking chart to sink your teeth into. Do your own DD.
Never advice.
We wager that this run across the MED is a signal of big things to come.
They recently signed a Letter of intent with Everwin Magnetics to start producing magnets other rare metals products for the potentially booming Energy efficient market.
finance.yahoo.com
They have also proven concept recently and are potential leaders in the rare Earth recycling market.
finance.yahoo.com
--> Info on Recycled Rare Earth: www.recyclingtoday.com
Not advice.