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Crude Oil Breakout Struggling for Follow ThroughWe started this week off with a massive gap higher from WTI crude, but where is the follow through? The jump from Friday to Monday makes sense on the OPEC production cut news, but the EIA reporting US strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) hit their lowest levels since the week of Nov 25, 1983 barely offers a hiccup of demand-backed bullish interest. It could be that today's ISM service sector report from the US has revived recession concerns and thereby curbed the demand picture on a higher level, but intraday price action doesn't really give much weight to that view for me. Seeing inside days on very narrow range sessions after a massive gap higher is striking. Keeping an eye on the 82.50 range high that stretches back to November and then the 38.2% Fib of the bull run from April 2020 low (cutting out the inversion) to June 2022 high at ~83.15. And just above that we have the 200-day SMA at ~84.30. Are technicals overriding fundamental drive?
NYMEX:CL1!
by JohnKicklighter
What is Non-Farm Payroll and How to Trade It? 📚 Hey traders, This week, on Friday, we are expecting Non-Farm Payroll Report. In this educational article, I will try to explain to you why that fundamental data is so important and I will share with you the insights how to trade it. Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most important indicators for forex and stock markets in the economic calendar. Being released on the first Friday of each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), it shows the number of new jobs created by the US economy during the previous month, excluding farm sector, government and not for profit organizations. NFP accounts for 80% of the US gross domestic product work force. The non-farm payroll is used by analysts to determine the current state of the economy and to predict the future activity levels. For that reason, its release usually triggers volatile movements across all Us Dollar related financial instruments. Being crucially important, remember that NFP is not the only figure released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. NFP is the part of the Employment Situation Report that also contains: Unemployment rate, Average hourly earnings, Labor participation rate, Average workweek. The main reason, why newbie traders fail in trading NFP release is the fact that they completely neglect the figures of the Employment Situation Report. Here are some tips how to properly interpret the figures in the report: 1) Non-farm payroll numbers. It reflects the new jobs' creation pace. Higher than predicted rate is usually positive for the US stock market, while the weak rate usually affects that negatively. 2) Unemployment rate. It reflects the number of unemployed people in relation to a total workforce. Low unemployment rate is usually very positive for US Dollar, while higher than expected unemployment quite negatively affects on USD. 3) Average hourly earnings. It reflects the change of the labor cost. The fast increase in the labor cost is usually positive for US Dollar, while the slowing increase is considered to be a bearish indicator for USD. 4) Average weekly hours. It reflects the average amount of paid working hours. The increase in average weekly hours is considered to be a very positive factor for US stock market, while its decrease is considered to be a negative one. Trading NFP report, the one should consider all the figures from the Employment Situation Report. All the numbers should be weighed properly and only then the predictions should be made. Remember that volatility is higher than usual in the hours of news release, for that reason, be careful and never forget to set a stop loss.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
7
💮Review of the Aptos(APT) Project💮Hello! Today, let's review one of the ✴️cryptocurrency projects✴️ which is the talk of the town these days, the Aptos Project. Today's project name is 💮 Aptos Project, shown as APT token💮. As I have said before, I evaluate crypto projects based on various factors .👇 I have already introduced each of these factors with a brief explanation, so today, I will be looking at Aptos (APT) . 🔥Let’s get into it: 🔰🔰🔰🔰🔰🔰 ✅ Project Goals : Aptos is a Layer 1 Proof-of-Stake (PoS) blockchain that employs a novel smart contract programming language called Move, a Rust-based programming language independently developed by Meta (formerly Facebook)’s Diem blockchain engineers. The Aptos blockchain aims to achieve the following: Scalability: To support a large number of transactions per second (TPS) and to minimize transaction💴 costs without sacrificing security. Aptos can theoretically achieve a throughput of over 150,000 TPS. Security: To provide a robust and secure infrastructure that can protect against various attacks, including 51% attacks and other network disruptions. Developer-friendly: To offer a user-friendly😊 interface and a suite of developer tools that make it easy for developers to build and deploy dApps on the Aptos blockchain. Interoperability: To ensure that the Aptos blockchain can interact with other blockchain networks and traditional databases, allowing for greater interoperability and flexibility. By achieving these goals, the Aptos blockchain aims to enable a new generation of decentralized applications to operate more efficiently, securely, and transparently than traditional centralized applications. This is why I have scored Aptos’ project goals 7/10. ✅ Founders : Aptos was founded by Mohammed Sheikh, also known as Mo Sheikh, and Avery Ching. Mo holds a Master's in Business Administration, and his resume includes BlackRock, the Boston Consulting Group, Ethereum builder Consensys, and Meta (formerly Facebook). Avery Ching holds a PhD in Computer Science🖥 and has spent most of his career working as a principal software engineer at Meta, which is one of the highest positions in the company. This is why I have scored the Aptos founders 8/10. ✅ GitHub : Aptos Labs has a public GitHub repository that contains the open-source code for their Aptos blockchain platform. The repository includes various software components, including the core blockchain protocol, smart contract libraries, and various developer tools. The Aptos Labs GitHub repository is a valuable resource for developers interested in building decentralized applications (dApps) on the Aptos blockchain. The repository is regularly updated with new features, bug fixes, and other improvements, and developers are encouraged to contribute their own code and ideas to the project. In addition to the open-source code, the Aptos Labs GitHub🌐 repository also includes documentation and tutorials that guide how to use the platform and build dApps on top of it. This makes it easier for developers to get started with the Aptos blockchain and to take advantage of its unique features and capabilities. The Aptos GitHub repository currently has over 400 contributors with more than 17,000 commits which made our experts score Aptos’ Github 8/10. ✅ Inflation Rate : Aptos launched its Mainnet with an initial total supply of 1 billion tokens in October. With new tokens minted through transaction fees and staking rewards, the total supply of Aptos has reached 1.024 billion during the past 6 months. This means Aptos has had 2.4% inflation over 6 months, and knowing this, I can say that the $APT token inflation rate is at least 4% annually. This inflation rate isn’t awful, but it also isn’t very great looking at Bitcoin’s current 1.8% inflation or Ethereum being deflationary, which is why I have scored $APT token’s inflation rate 6/10. It's important to note that inflation rates can change over time as the underlying blockchain protocol is updated or as market conditions shift, so it's possible that the inflation rate of the $APT token could change in the future. ✅ Community : Aptos team has been actively working to grow their community through social media activity and other methods. The Aptos Twitter account has over 375K followers, their Discord channel has almost 150K😈 members, and they are also active on platforms such as LinkedIn and Medium. Therefore I have scored the Aptos community 7/10. ✅ Whitepaper : The Aptos whitepaper explains the founders’ vision in detail. It talks about the new smart contract programming language called Move, which is based on Rust. Also, the logical data model for Aptos is thoroughly explained in the whitepaper. The technologies used in Aptos, such as parallel transaction processing for achieving higher throughputs, are also explained in the whitepaper. The Aptos Whitepaper being complete and detail-oriented, has made our experts score it 8/10. ✅ Developers : Since the project was founded by people with great experience in tech companies, its developers can only be up to their standards. According to the Aptos website, more than 350 developers are currently working on the Aptos blockchain. The GitHub repository for Aptos also shows more than 400 contributors submitting commits. But you should also know that even though the devs claimed that the Aptos blockchain could process 150,000 TPS, on the day of its Mainnet launch, only 4 transactions were getting confirmed per second, and the blockchain was facing a lack of users. This is why I have scored the Aptos developers 7/10. ✅ Tokenomics : Aptos launched its Mainnet with an initial total supply of 1 billion tokens, of which 510 million were distributed to the community, 190 million to core developers, and the rest to the Aptos Foundation and private investors. Tokens held by private investors and core contributors are subject to a 4-year lockup schedule. The Aptos Foundation holds 410 million tokens, which will be released over the next 10 years, with 125 million available initially to support ecosystem projects, grants, and community growth initiatives. Rewards for token holders who stake their tokens start at 7% annually and decrease to a lower bound of 3.25%. Community sentiment has been critical of the large allocation for developers and also the Aptos team has not been transparent about their tokenomics and average retail investor has to really dig in to find some valuable information, so I have scored the Tokenomics for Aptos 6/10. ✅ Venture Capital Investors : Aptos collected $350 million from VC investors in a funding round. The investors included Tiger Global Management, Andreessen Horowitz, Paxos, BlockTower Capital, Circle Ventures, Multicoin Capital, PayPal Ventures, and more. But what raises concern is that Aptos could collect such capital before they had released a whitepaper or provided any details about their tokenomics. This is why I have scored the VC investors of Aptos 6/10. ✅ Competitor Comparison : What makes Aptos separate from all its competitors such as Solana, is its novel smart contract programming language Move. Solana’s founder has reportedly admitted in an interview that the Solana team is really concerned about a competitor L1 with a new execution layer. This, along with the fact that Move is a very developer-friendly language, could mean many devs leaving the Solana ecosystem in order to build on Aptos. Another difference between Aptos and other L1s that I should mention is that tokens on the Aptos blockchain are apparently controlled by the entity that issues them. This means that any token on the Aptos blockchain can be frozen, burned, or minted at will by whoever created it. This is an intentional design choice as the Aptos founder mentioned in a panel discussion that the Aptos blockchain can comply with regulations. This point creates concerns about censorship and the decentralization of the project, which is why I have scored Aptos compared to its competitors 7/10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 🔔 In conclusion , Aptos obtained an overall score of 7/10 which is decent but there are a few concerns about this project that you should keep in mind if you’re considering investing in it. The biggest concern is the ridiculous disconnect between the supposed quality of the project and its transparency and organization. Aptos has technically been in development since 2017 and has had access to unlimited resources for research and development for years. It raised $350 million without a whitepaper or tokenomics, while Aptos Labs had 350 employees supposedly. So why didn’t Aptos completely hammer out the tokenomics of its $APT token? Aptos still lacks a YouTube channel; no information is available on who runs the validator nodes on the Aptos blockchain. There is also no information on which wallets belong to Aptos Labs and Aptos Foundation. These are all concerns that anyone should consider before inventing.
by pejman_zwin
2
Bitcoin broke the resistance above into April #EasterBullRun !!!I have been following bitcoin for the past 3 months trying to catch the bottom and top of this rally, It's not an easy task so I urge you to take my word as an Easter gift because #BTC just broke the line resistance line above 28K. #EasterBullRun #EasterBullish As usual, We all know it's not possible to catch the top or bottom of any market but 80-90% accuracy is enough to make you win big !! Just buy $BTC and hold till 100k !!
Long
by Kayycoins
Long AI Short HypeFighting innovation is a fool’s errand. Getting entangled in hype is no less. Generative AI is drawing attention. ChatGPT skyrocketed in popularity since launch last November. With its intuitive responses, it has become the fastest-growing app in history reaching one million users in five days and 100 million in two months. In contrast, Google took 12 months and Facebook required four years to get there. The virality highlights the potential disruptive power of generative AI. Disruptive innovation is not new. Railways in 1800s to Blockchain in the recent past provide ample history. As observed before, innovation takes time to mature. Yet the hype cycle races ahead only to plunge in time to normalise. This paper uses iShares Exponential Technologies ETF (XT) as a proxy to cutting edge innovation. XT invests in global firms with exposure to exponential tech, which displaces older tech. It invests across nine themes comprising of firms in both developed and emerging markets that create or use exponential tech. This paper argues for gains to be harvested from sinking hype using a spread trade. A long position in CME Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures (MNQ) combined with a short position in XT will deliver a compelling 1.49x reward to risk ratio. HISTORY OF HYPED INNOVATION Gartner hype cycle graphically depicts disruptive innovation journey. First comes the climb to peak hype. Second, fall to trough of disillusion. Third, slope of enlightenment followed by plateau of productivity. Using Google Trends as a proxy for hype cycle, it shows that market mania around AI is not new. AI searches surged in 2011 with the launch of Siri, Cortana, and IBM’s Watson. With natural language processing tech still in infancy, practical applications were limited then. And soon, the frenzy fizzled. Innovation in new machine learning algo such as convolutional neural networks and deep learning led to the launch of ChatGPT. Its potential is clear. Yet the tech is in early stages requiring a lot more work before it can mount serious challenge to existing tools. Tech parity will take considerable time let alone the meaningful monetisation which requires legal and ethical AI use hurdles to be cleared. One of the foremost examples of Gartner’s Hype Cycle is the boom in US Railways between 1840-1860. Hopes of ever-increasing returns attracted large scale investments only to result in eventual disappointment. Illustrations from recent past (Crypto, IoT, and Blockchain) shows similar fate of over-hyped tech. CURRENT HYPE IN XT, C3 AI, AND BEIJING DEEP GLINT A 23% surge in price in iShares Exponential Technologies ETF since mid-October last year is emblematic of Gartner’s hype cycle. This is even more evident in the share price of C3.ai. Founded by legendary entrepreneur Tom Siebel, this company was named C3 Energy when formed. It changed its name to C3 IoT in 2016 and then renamed again to C3.ai in 2019 to ride the waves of hype. US equities cannot claim monopoly over hype. Equities elsewhere get swayed too. Shares in Beijing Deep Glint Technology also rallied 80% spurred by ChatGPT. However, last week, the company announced challenges in offering ChatGPT-linked products causing its shares to tank 10%. ROAD AHEAD FOR GENERATIVE AI Generative AI is here to stay. Infancy for now but the tech will mature. Competition will rise. Winners will emerge. But monetization is another story altogether. Favouring innovation while frowning on hype fuelled by inflated expectations, this case study proposes a spread trade. A long position in CME Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures (MNQ) combined with a short position in iShares Exponential Technologies ETF (XT) delivers a compelling 1.49 reward to risk ratio. TRADE SET UP Why a spread trade? In the short term, elevated levels of uncertainty have left experts puzzled on whether we are in a bull market or a bear market rally. Hence, to extract pure alpha (by neutralising beta) of securing gains from diminishing hype, this case study proposes a spread trade. The spread will gain in a bullish market when MNQ rises relative to XT. Similarly, the spread will gain in a bearish market when XT falls more than MNQ. CME’s Micro E-Mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures expiring in June 2023 (MNQM2023) provides a notional exposure to $2 x Nasdaq-100 index. With MNQM2023 settling at 12,525.50 on February 17th, the futures provide a notional exposure of $25,051. XT settled at $52.58 on the same day. A spread requires notional value of both the legs to be identical. Therefore, this requires short selling 476 units of XT for a short exposure of $25,028. • Entry: 238.218 • Target: 255 • Stop: 227 • Profit at Target: $ 1,760 • Loss at Stop: $ 1,180 • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.49x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description. REFERENCES www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CME_MINI:MNQM2023Long
by mintdotfinance
18
seize the opportunity of trading in the gold volatility range!After yesterday's rally and closing positive, gold has so far emerged from a bottoming and rebounding market today, reaching a minimum of 1958.75. It is currently trading near the 1966 position. Judging from today's short cycle, gold prices have not achieved a breakthrough and have been under pressure. In the falling market, gold did not fall to the 1930 area again, and the 4-hour range fluctuation is still there.It is expected that gold will fluctuate in a large area from 2000 to 1950, which is a high probability. From the fundamental point of view, although the banking crisis has been alleviated, the economic recession and the geopolitical risk-averse market are still there, so it is destined that gold will continue to be in a high and volatile market. Short-term trading reference: 1.Sell gold near the 1973-1974 position, stop loss level 1979, take profit level 1960-1955 2.Buy gold near the 1952 position, the stop loss level is 1949, and the take profit level is near 1966 In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Short-term-king
Best Passive income cryptocurrencyMany of us have crypto store money in our bank accounts. Many ventures are exploring passive income options. It doesn’t matter what approach you take, the goal is to put your spare funds to work for yourself. One way to do this is with crypto. Let’s look at the 10 possible ways you can use crypto. Let’s quickly say that you can makepassive income from cryptocurrencies in 10 different ways. You may not always succeed. High volatility in cryptocurrency investments is a risky investment. You can lose 100% of your investment even if there is no volatile market factor such as bearish or inflation. There are eight ways to generate passive income from crypto. Many of the most popular cryptocurrencies can be used to generate passive income. It is crucial to research thoroughly and speak with financial professionals before making any investment decision. Here are the top passive income cryptos. 1. Staking cryptocurrency 2. Yield farming 3. Proof Of Work. 4. A crypto interest account. 5.Lending Platform 6.Dividends Tokens. 7.Airdrops and Forks. 8.Affiliate program. 9.Masternode cryptocurrency. 10.Decentralized Finance (DeFi cryptocurrency):
Education
by carripayvideos1988
⚛️Review of the CryptoGPT(GPT) Project!!!⚛️Hello, today, let's review one of the cryptocurrency projects in the field of Artificial Intelligence(AI)🤖 from the fundamental point of view. The reason for choosing this field is people's high acceptance of artificial intelligence🤖 in the new year; cryptocurrency projects also use this opportunity, but always check any project before investing💎. Today's project name is ⚛️CryptoGPT(GPT)⚛️ . As I have said before, I evaluate crypto projects based on various factors.👇 I have already introduced each of these factors with a brief explanation, so today, I will be looking at CryptoGPT(GPT). 🔥Let’s get into it: 🔰🔰🔰🔰🔰🔰 ✅ Project Goals : CryptoGPT is introduced as a ZK Layer-2, allowing you to monetize your data with AI. Well, first of all, GPT stands for Generative Pre-Trained Transformer, which is basically how an AI language like ChatGPT gets massive databases pre-trained to enhance its services. So CryptoGPT is no more related to ChatGPT than being a rip-off chasing the hype around ChatGPT. Also, well-known L2s like Arbitrum and Optimism launched their tokens after their Mainnets were up and running when the users required governance control. Whereas CryptoGPT has launched its $GPT token already and states in its roadmap that the Layer-2 Mainnet Beta will launch in Q4 of 2023. So $GPT is currently no more than an ERC-20 token. The clout chasing done by this project has made our experts score the CryptoGPT project goals 2/10. ✅ Founders : There is little information about the founders of CryptoGPT. On their main website, Jamila Jelani is listed as part of the marketing team, whereas on some unofficial websites, she's introduced as the project's founder. CryptoGPT provides an AI language model called Alex, and when I asked Alex about the founders of CryptoGPT, I got the answer: "I'm sorry, but I don't have that information. However, you can visit the CryptoGPT website or do a quick online search to find the founders' names." The fact that there is no proper information about the project's founders and the website owner is using a service to hide their identity is a huge red flag, so I have scored CryptoGPT's founders 1/10. ✅ Github : The project claims to be an AI-to-earn just like the play-to-earn games that were hyped in the crypto space during the end of 2021. Basically, how this works, according to the CryptoGPT website, is that you can turn your daily activities into data using AI and then sell it as something they call "NFT Capsules". They claim to be the only sustainable "to-earn" crypto project while also being a ZK L2 on Ethereum. But as of now, the only thing that exists is the $GPT token on Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain (BSC). There isn't a GitHub respiratory available for the project, at least none our team could find. Therefore I have scored CryptoGPT's Github 1/10. ✅ Inflation Rate : The $GPT token has a maximum supply of 3,000,000,000 (3 billion) tokens; no information is available on the circulating supply. Since there is no necessity for a project with these goals to have a token in the first place, I have scored the Inflation Rate of CryptoGPT 1/10. ✅ Community : CryptoGPT's Twitter account has 240K followers, its Telegram channel has more than 90K members, and its Discord channel has 20K members. Even though these numbers seem good for a crypto project's community, you should keep in mind that these are newly created accounts. For example, the Twitter account for CryptoGPT was created in February 2023, and gaining 240K followers in a month seems shady. That's why I scored CryptoGPT's community 4/10. ✅ Whitepaper : CryptoGPT doesn't have a Whitepaper yet and only provides a Litepaper for the project. In this Litepaper, the team states their goals and compares daily active users with other L2s on Ethereum, like Optimism and Arbitrum. The question is, how can they compare their users when the CryptoGPT Mainnet does not even exist yet? The thing about crypto projects is that they can claim to be unique and solve many issues in their Whitepaper, but the real thing is what's happening in the backend and coding of the project. Since this project doesn't have a whitepaper, I have scored CryptoGPT's Litepaper 3/10. ✅ Developers : The team only introduces 3 people as developers on their website. Of the three, only one is a backend developer, Emanuel Junior from Brazil. According to his LinkedIn profile, Emmanuel is a computer science graduate from a University in Brazil with more than 5 years of work experience. But just one developer isn't sufficient for a ZK Layer-2 since other L2s have huge teams of skilled devs working to improve their protocols. Since I couldn't find information about other devs working on CryptoGPT, I scored the developers 2/10. ✅ Tokenomics : According to CryptoGPT's Litepaper, the $GPT token distribution is as follows: 20% goes to the Public, 20% is allocated to Liquidity, Staking, and Market Makers, 3% goes towards the project's Marketing, 25% is allocated towards Data Mining Incentives, 16% for the team, 6% for partners and advisors, and 10% is allocated to a Development Reserve. But according to etherscan, the top 10 wallet addresses hold more than 85% of the $GPT token supply, which is extremely shady. That's why I have scored CryptoGPT's tokenomics 3/10. ✅ Venture Capital Investors : CryptoGPT has not done any funding rounds yet and therefore doesn't have any VC investors. The team might have decided to fund the project by selling their $GPT tokens which again is another red flag for investing in the project. This is why I have scored CryptoGPT's VC investors 1/10. ✅ Competitor Comparison : Compared to other ZK rollups on Ethereum, like Starknet and zkSync, CryptoGPT is basically already dead. Since these projects have amazing teams working on improving their projects and overcoming milestones, but a project like CryptoGPT just seems to want to use the hype around AI and ZK technology simultaneously without any actual creativity. Therefore I have scored CryptoGPT compared to its comparison 1/10. 🔔 In conclusion , CryptoGPT obtained a total score of 1.9/10. Does this score mean that the $GPT price will never rally? Definitely not. The $GPT token price can rally, but that doesn't change the project's fundamentals. Investing in CryptoGPT is extremely risky, even compared to other cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum. That's why if you want to invest in this project, it's best only to put in an amount you're completely comfortable with losing.
Education
by pejman_zwin
12
Crudeoil bears are working hard again, where will crudeoil fall?There may not be a shortcut to success, but there must be a way.Give up what should be given up, grasp what can be grasped; only insist on investing in your own investment standards. Yesterday's short crude oil orders reaped very good profits, and the current crude oil is creating favorable trading opportunities for us. At present, the U.S. Secretary of Energy has hinted that the country is in no hurry to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), exacerbating concerns about oversupply in the market.In addition, Russia's continued supply of crude oil to the global market has also increased the pressure on the oil market, causing oil prices to fall again. At present, crude oil has fallen as low as 66.8.Judging from the trend of crude oil, the rebound of crude oil has been blocked for two consecutive trading days, and a longer upper shadow line has been left, forming a secondary pressure, so the suppression of resistance above the 71 position is still relatively obvious.I also mentioned in my article yesterday that if oil prices are delayed in regaining the 72.4 position, there is a technical need for a second bottoming demand, which will increase the short-term bearish signal. In the short-term treatment, the upper side initially pays attention to the pressure near 69, and the lower side pays attention to the support near 66.8. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILShort
by Short-term-king
[Watch] MARA versus Bitcoin 2️⃣7️⃣| RSI building up New Day Team NASDAQ:MARA Let's congratulate the new Pine Wizards Tradingview in 2023. They have many great tools to enhance your trading and maximize every opportunity. Let me share the link with you: www.tradingview.com We now have 3 buy signals on the daily chart. And I think we are a critical test against the 200-EMA that I haven't seen since July 2022, when the stock price went as high as 160%. Trade smart and Trade to Win...! All Together; Por la Victoria J.R. Jaén Risk Disclaimer: 1️⃣Past Performance is not indicative of any future performance. 2️⃣Trading and Investing are risky. Only trade and invest with resources and capital; you can afford to lose, and it will not change your lifestyle or family situation if you do not make the returns you wanted or if things go wrong and you lose everything. 3️⃣I can and will have a position in MARA anytime because I like the stock and company. 4️⃣Never go All-In. You do not have to buy with your rent money; you do not have to believe with all your savings because NO one is asking you to do so. This video is a video log, a journal, and a path to share with others how they can gain exposure to Bitcoin without the need to invest 20,000 dollars immediately.
NASDAQ:MARALong
by josericaurte.jaen
[Watch] MARA versus Bitcoin 2️⃣6️⃣| 4H Chart Price Action Morning Team NASDAQ:MARA It is another sunny day in Zagreb. Let's take a look at the price action in the 4-hour chart because as long as prices trade above the 200EMA, you can count on a push higher in the next 4 weeks. Trade smart and Trade to Win...! All Together; Por la Victoria J.R. Jaén Risk Disclaimer: 1️⃣Past Performance is not indicative of any future performance. 2️⃣Trading and Investing are risky. Only trade and invest with resources and capital; you can afford to lose, and it will not change your lifestyle or family situation if you do not make the returns you wanted or if things go wrong and you lose everything. 3️⃣I can and will have a position in MARA anytime because I like the stock and company. 4️⃣Never go All-In. You do not have to buy with your rent money; you do not have to believe with all your savings because NO one is asking you to do so. This video is a video log, a journal, and a path to share with others how they can gain exposure to Bitcoin without the need to invest 20,000 dollars immediately. NASDAQ:MARA
NASDAQ:MARALong
by josericaurte.jaen
When Chips Are Down, They Rebound Slowly But StronglyWhen Chips are down; invest if you can and hedge if you must. Having soared in 2020 & 2021, semiconductor shares tanked brutally as tremors from geopolitics, sinking consumer confidence and bloated inventory struck. Q4 overhang is dragging the industry down in the near term, which might have set a bearish outlook in the short-term, but times are changing. Structural forces and business cyclicality are now becoming robust tail winds for semiconductors, bringing a bullish outlook in the medium-to-long term for the sector. Therefore, this case study argues that an asynchronous time spread in CME E-Mini PHLX Semiconductor Sector Futures ("CME Semiconductor Futures") could potentially deliver a 2.8x reward to risk ratio by first taking a short position in futures expiring in March 2023 followed by a path-dependant long position in futures expiring in September 2023. INDUSTRY ON THE CUSP OF A SUPERCYCLE Chips everywhere. Semiconductors are ubiquitous as products become sophisticated. Rapid growth of mobile devices, emergence of EVs, and rising cloud adoption have created endless demand for higher processing speeds and larger memory. Chipmakers have benefited from this trend. Anticipated exponential growth in consumer durables, IoT, gaming, EVs, and AI/ML will translate into strong sustained demand for chips. Speaking at World Economic Forum, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella asserted that AI would go mainstream not in years but in months. Emergence of generative AI will form a fresh stream of demand for chips. EVs require twice as much chip content than traditional ones. Rising cloud usage will amplify demand from datacentres for graphics processing units (GPUs). In short, semiconductor industry is on the cusp of a demand super cycle. DEMYSTIFYING THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ("SOX") is a market capitalization-weighted index comprising of the top thirty (30) semiconductor firms listed in the US. Top names include Nvidia, TSMC, and ASML forming 48% of SOX. The top ten comprise 80% of the SOX. SOX rallied 202% from its low in March 2020 to its high in November 2021. As monetary policy shifted from QE to QT, SOX plunged 46% in 2022 touching its lowest level in October 2022. Since then, it has bounced back 43%, outperforming both NASDAQ-100 and S&P 500 which are up merely 10% during the same period. A CYCLICAL INDUSTRY Semiconductors industry is inherently cyclical given the considerable time lapse between spotting fresh demand and matching them with new supply. In a recent report, JP Morgan cited that semiconductor stocks are close to a cyclical bottom. Each time the industry hits a bottom, it recovers impressively. In one-year and three-years following a cyclical dip, shares in this sector spike 40% and 95% on average, respectively. While short term demand looks bleak on waning consumer confidence, the USD 600-billion industry's long-term prospect looks resolutely bright. LET THE AI WARS BEGIN Revolutionary AI: ChatGPT made its debut in November. It sprinted to a million users in just five days. The excitement in generative AI is palpable. It will revolutionise content generation while delivering vast productivity gains in others. Inflection ahead: AI is approaching an inflection point. Its usage is going mainstream. Expect tech giants to invest heavily to outcompete. If this marks the start of AI wars, the semiconductor firms that make AI work will harvest outsized profits. Shovel makers hit jackpot: During the gold rush, it was the shovel makers that got rich more so than the diggers. In this AI gold rush, the shovel makers (i.e., the semiconductor stocks) are set to reap enormous gains. Nvidia already shining: Nvidia is the market leader in GPUs whose parallel processing capabilities form the core for delivering AI. ChatGPT adoption alone could bring incremental revenues of up to USD 11 billion over the next year, Citigroup estimates. TSMC & ASML well positioned: Nvidia GPU production depends on two firms - (a) the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC), and (b) ASML Holdings (ASML). Berkshire stake in TSMC: TSMC recently announced stunning Q4 earnings. Its net sales grew 42.8% YoY, while its net profits & EPS were up 78% YoY contributing to an ROE of 26.4%. Little wonder that TSMC was one of Warren Buffett's recent investments where his firm acquired USD four billion of TSMC shares last November. ASML dominance: Meanwhile ASML commands a monopoly on key tech (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography or EUV). EUV is used in producing cutting-edge nano chips that AI requires. ASML is set to secure a windfall on rising AI adoption. CHIPS ACT TO RESHORE PRODUCTION Supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic exposed the vulnerability of over-reliance on globalisation. Russia-Ukraine conflict caused adverse impact with Russia being a major supplier of Palladium and Ukraine being a key source of Neon gas. To reduce over-reliance in a key industry, US last year legislated the CHIPS Act which is aimed at reshoring production on US soil supported by more than USD 150 billion of grants and tax incentives. NO PAIN, NO GAIN IN A V-SHAPED PATH AHEAD Supply ramped-up but a little too late: Clogged supply chains plus demand spike during the pandemic fuelled chip shortage. Ramped up production which always takes a long lead time arrived but at a time of pale consumer demand (PC demand down 28% YoY) late last year. Frail consumer sentiment: Persistent inflation, recession fears, and uncertain outlook, meant lower consumer durable sales. This has slashed demand for semiconductors resulting in one of the largest inventory corrections in the industry. The sector is cooling faster and getting colder than expected. Firms face a tough market saddled with excess inventory compounded by frail end-markets except for automotives. Downgraded chips: Intel reported a loss for Q4 last year and expects a weak first half this year with return to growth in second half. Earnings from other industry majors point to significant headwinds. Analysts have downgraded several chip stocks. Fund flows in ETFs: Fund flows into and out of leveraged ETFs this year show investor activity is moving in tandem with these macro shifts. The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x ETF (3 times long exposure to SOX) suffered net outflows of $341 million while the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x ETF (3 times short exposure to SOX) gained net inflows of $1.1 billion. Insiders are Net Sellers: Insider Activity among majors show that they have been net sellers over the last three months except for Qualcomm, Intel and Applied Materials. Bullish Price Targets: In sharp contrast to this gloomy outlook, analysts covering the top stocks anticipate an average +15% price gain over the next 12-months. TRADE SET-UP This case study proposes a two-legged calendar spread as set out below. Each CME Semiconductor Futures contract provides exposure to twenty-five (25) index points approximating to USD 75,000 in notional with required margin of USD 5,900. TRADE LEG 1 : A short position in the contract expiring in March 2023 will provide exposure to the short-term correction. Entry: 2978 Target: 2571 Stop Loss: 3180 Profit At Target: $10,175 Loss At Stop: $5,050 TRADE LEG 2 : A long position in CME Semiconductor Futures expiring in September 2023 will provide exposure to recovery in the latter part of the year. Entry: 2710 Target: 3718 Stop Loss: 2410 Profit At Target: $25,200 Loss At Stop: $7,500 Aggregate Reward-Risk Ratio: 2.8x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
TVC:SOXLong
by mintdotfinance
2
Valuing a stock - ROIC/PE - an interesting ratio As I am both a longer term and shorter term investor and trader the notion of the best way to estimate if a stock is undervalued or over valued interests me. There seem to me a number of ways to go about doing this but I was interested to see if I could combine two traditional metrics that people look at into one measure and see if that told me anything interesting. The two measures I am interested in are P/E ratio - typically used as an indicator of whether a stock is under or overvalued in terms of its price to earnings and of course sometimes reflecting also the expectancy of future earnings growth or reduction. The second measure I was interested in is ROIC - Return on Invested Capital - a fairly good measure of how well a company martials the capital it has invested into producing returns. So I decided to start checking a ratio of these two measures for a series of companies. The ratio I am using is ROIC /PE. When price goes up if EPS and ROIC are same then this ratio goes lower - and vice versa. When ROIC goes up if PE and EPS are the same then this ratio goes higher - and vice versa. When EPS goes up if ROIC and Price are unchanged then this ratio goes higher - and vice versa. When PE ratio goes up then this ratio goes lower - and vice versa. I found an interesting interplay of these factors across a range of stocks and ratios varying from below 1 up to in the twenties. I'm still thinking about what this ratio is really telling me. Here are two current examples which were correct for prices I think it was early last week. NVDA ROIC 12.3 PE 137 ROIC/PE RATIO - 0.09 ON SEMICONDUCTOR ROIC 22 PE 18.23 ROIC/PE RATIO - 1.22 Based only on this ratio and looking at the ratio for various other stocks then NVDA looks very overvalued compared to say ON Semiconductor. Some stocks cam out with really high ROIC/PE ratios and its left me wondering if these are stocks that are really undervalued. Of course the confounding factor in this that a high PE may be there because of expectations for strong future growth. But you'd have to have really strong growth in either ROIC or EPS - or a drop in stock price - for NVDA to come into ratios more like other stocks. Im interested in any thoughts people have on this ratio as a pointer to overvaluation or undervaluation of a stock. Thanks. ( Its my first public post - be gentle lol.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by wjduncan
5
AAPL earnings todayAAPL Q1 earnings are today, 2/2 at 4:30pm. Apple (AAPL) reported Q4 September 2022 earnings of $1.29 per share on revenue of $90.15 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $1.26 per share on revenue of $90 billion. Revenue grew 8.1% on a year-over-year basis. The company said during its conference call it expects first quarter revenue to be less than $134 billion. The current consensus revenue estimate is $121.65 billion for the quarter ending December 31, 2022. Here's an AAPL 1 week chart with the past 8 earnings reports PE, EPS, revenue, cash & debt data indicators. Plus 2/3, 2/17 and 3/17 expiry options data. Q1 December 2022 Consensus: EPS = 1.95 Revenue: $121.65B P/E = 23.83 Q4 September 2022: EPS = 1.29 beat +1.24% Revenue = $90.15B beat 1.54% Cash = $21.48B Debt = $109.707B Q3 June 2022: EPS = 1.20 beat 3.86% Revenue = $82.96B miss -0.01% Cash = $23.82B Debt = $94.7B Q2 March 2022: EPS =1.52 beat 6.21% Revenue = $97.28B beat 3.49% Cash = $21.95B Debt = $103.323B 2/3/23 expiry options data: Put Volume Total 133,490 Call Volume Total 185,439 Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.72 Put Open Interest Total 236,507 Call Open Interest Total 258,742 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.91 2/17/23 expiry options data: Put Volume Total 50,165 Call Volume Total 51,491 Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.97 Put Open Interest Total 628,578 Call Open Interest Total 456,492 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.38 3/17/23 expiry options data Put Volume Total 42,446 Call Volume Total 30,838 Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.38 Put Open Interest Total 495,668 Call Open Interest Total 531,159 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.93
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Options360
2
Strong bulls and no bears, gold trend is expected next week!During the US stock trading session, gold rose sharply due to the sentiment of the banking crisis in Europe and the United States, and finally closed at US 1988.3 per ounce.Judging from the current strong bullish energy of bulls, the bullish sentiment of retail investors is high, so gold still has room to rise. On Friday, gold still rose after the shock, and continued to expand its gains, thus touching the vicinity of 1937. The rally still failed to slow down. After the correction of the shock above, it failed to form a downward trend. Instead, it took advantage of the situation to continue to go up the high line, breaking multiple resistance in a row, but in the process of rising, it fell slightly after reaching the 1987 dollar line.After the rally went higher, the short-term high was suppressed, but the trend structure failed to change, and there is still some room for the increase to rise. In the short term, it is not easy to guess the top. Before reaching the key layout stage, it is not easy to participate against the trend. The short-term structure is still strong. Take advantage of the trend and wait for the opportunity to step back and go long while not chasing the high.If there is a large pullback, then another shorting plan will be laid out.After maintaining a high level for a short period of time, the volatility is still higher after the correction, and the bulls are still strong, breaking through the previous high of 1960, so the current increase trend structure is still a strong trend.Short-term expectations are temporarily suspended. In terms of the layout of gold next week, we should first look at the decline. The 2000 integer mark has a certain pressure. Yesterday, the US market touched near 1990 and then fell below the shadow line. The market rebounded again in the future. The upward trend is still under pressure. At present, with the closing situation on Friday, the short-term high of the closing line at the end of the week is expected to withdraw again. First look at the fall and then look at the rebound.In general, the short-term bullish trend around the strong link remains unchanged, and the gold operation thinking next week will still be based on low and bullish. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Short-term-king
4