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The SVB Collapse and Why It Matters To YouInteresting situation with the collapse of SVB (SIVB), the people have yet to realize we control the market not the central planners. and the collapse of SVB is a realization of that power. So , here is what i know from the very little articles and podcasts that I listen to and I will give you guys the why its important. From what i know is that SVB business model was somewhat risky in the first place, and their main consumer base was startups, and tech startups. hence the name Silicon Valley portion of Silicon Valley Bank. Now a little money education... in the world of money and currency (remember currency as current it will become important later) there is a concept called the velocity of money, basically the volatility of money. for my stock traders think the VIX. when the VIX is low there is no money to be made because money is not moving. but when the VIX is high there is plenty of money going around so why not use your dollars as napkins, right or "fun coupons"! this is the velocity of money the faster a person can make money move the more money they stand to make. the banks know this. So when you go to the bank and deposit your check your money is already out the door into something else before you're able to but your wallet in your bag or pocket. this happens because of what is called as the "fractional reserve system" and to be honest its a "F"ed up idea but has worked thus far. what this system means for every dollar you put into the bank, the bank can lend out 10$. A bank is a business it makes its profits by lending money, and when you save your money it cost the bank money, because of your .01% interest rate. the reason for the big push for open accounts is because the more open accounts the bank has means the more money they have liquid, which means the more they can loan out, which means the more they stand to profit. now as an insurance policy the US government makes the banks keep a fraction of their total account balances on site incase of what they call a "bank run" happens (get to what a bank run is later) Now, normally you dont notice this or even care because when you go to the bank and want to pull 100$ from your account its no big deal whats a 100$ when your dealing with 100s of thousands. you want a 100$ you get 100$ instantly. But want to see the system become a problem for you, if you have more than lets say 25,000$ or more in an account go try to pull ALL that money out and see what type of road blocks you encounter. they will make you give ID, reasons for shutting down the account, basically your first born child and your blood type. partly is because they really want to know why you're closing the account, because thats profits walking out the door. but the main reason is, they have to reach out to sister branches and other banks to pool that money together to be able to give it to you and this typically happens like over night. so if you think you're about to waltz into your local bank and demand a 25,000$ check right then and there you're sadly mistaken. the same exact process happens when you take out a mortgage, now your talking $200K and up so now there are more road blocks. whether you're the buyer or the seller. you sell your house for 500K and you think that check you deposited is there right when you get it... yeah its not! back to the currency comment money is now a currency it has to keep moving to keep its value. think of it as a river, mostly you can drink water from a river and be okay because bacteria cannot grow in moving water but drink water out of a pond and you just might catch Syphilis (sarcasm intended). money is the same way, the faster you can make it move the more you stand to make and the healthier the money is, if take money out of the river and stick it in your pond as a savings account inflation will eat it alive making it very unhealthy. Even historically before all this crazy inflation started happening the savings rate in a savings account was like 0.01% and inflation was around 2 percent. Now the importance of this lays with the SVB. When looking at their business model it seems solid... "invest in high beta companies, or higher risk endeavors, then to off set this risk we will load up on the safest paper assets money can buy... the US 10Y bond." Officially the US hasn't defaulted on loans before... i mean we will print more money before we default. I mean it sounds like counterfeiting if you ask me, but who am I just a low key, low level, low volume trader with a computer living in my moms basement :) sarcasm... or is it?! Well from the looks of it it would seem SVB bought a ton of these 10Y bonds in 2021 when the economy was ripping and roaring. So, when bond yields are down their prices are way up. So in the full swing of the "roaring 20's" yields were around 1.12X or keeping it simpler 1.1XX. so that must mean the value must of been sky high. My only rational thought for this type of purchase was the risk manager must of thought he could off load the bonds in the bond market for a nice profit thinking good times were going to continue. On the surface it seems okay high risk business model with a low risk counter weight. But "We the People" were leaving SVB, and going back to what i said about taking your 25,000$ savings out, and they were running out of reserves and their bonds were worth less than the paper they were "printed" on, so they filed a loss on their report. on the surface this was fine, because only die hards read a companies 10Q or 8A but all it takes is one... and there is always that one Guy... and not this Regular Guy either. I personally dont like the instability of the tech industry. i mean i do believe we will make a full blown terminator but i dont want to gamble on which company that is regardless of what the gain is... might as well go gamble in my opinion. So, because there was a mass exodus of accounts they were having a hard time fill orders so file your 8A detailing you're offering more stocks to drum up some money and it falls flat. people read said 8A and see that you dont have cash so the word got out and the consumers made a bank run. Dont get it twisted either this can happen to any commercial bank JP Morgan, BofA, Chase, Citi, Credit Suisse and the like. a bank run is when the majority of depositors want their money back now and they do it in close succession of each other forcing the bank to say "we dont have your money" so they in essence "run" to the "bank" to get their worthless paper. Now, what i just learned is back in '08 our amazing government passed legislation basically stating they will no longer bail out banks. (honestly if you guys know the piece of legislation please post it in the comments) I agree with this legislation because when I lost 15k on a bad USDCHF trade 7-8 years ago the government didnt bail me out. that was all my money... just gone in a matter of seconds. So the US government came out and said " we will make sure all depositors will get their monies back... How? step in Bail-Ins And again a bail in is something i literally just learned about... i swear at this point were just making -ish up at this point... ok so we know what a bail out is... basically the US government funnels all this cash into a failing business(s) and the tax payer picks up the tab. so what is a bail-in?... glad you asked a bail-in is when the depositors pick up the tab... How? well the FDIC picks up the first $250K and anything over that 250K is now funneled into bank to help offset the loss. so if you have $500K in the bank the first $250K is yours... uncle sam gives it back via FDIC (which that money has been long gone spent, so i dont know where theyre going to pull money from to keep this facade of the FDIC up) and the next $250K is the banks... So congratulations you have just become a unwillingly silent partner of a failing bank. -ishy news is that the current administration is trying to give more power back to the IRS and bring it back to its glory days like it was in the 80's so you wont be able to claim those losses on your taxes, if you had a business friendly administration you might actually have a fighting chance. i have a feeling the whole world is watching what is about to happen, because the entire banking system relies on high value accounts. if the US says tough luck that might send uneasy shock waves to all the high income earners and might make them want to pull their funds out of the banking system... there is a very interesting article on Credit Suisse that i want to read so ciao!
TVC:US10Y
by ARegularGuy
1
Momentum vs Business Valuation"The momentum guys take it up to the moon, the value guys pick it up off the floor. Just watch out for the space between the two." -Confucius the trader have been reading up on the Turtle Traders and their momentum strategy. They would have bought anything as long as it meets their break out rules. Fascinating statistical strategy based on both 20 period price action and 55 day price action. Im sure they love the action in NVDA right now. However, in the valuation books. The oldies but goodies books (Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, Beating the Street by Peter Lynch) they would be less enthusiastic about the current valuation. Most useful would be Peter Lynchs PEG ratio, where growth rate is used to allow paying a higher price than normal for growth stocks. The roughly 30% growth rate annual expectation in this case would mean if NVDA falls below 30pe, it would be attractive. Its almost twice that now. Thats not necessarily a reason to sell a quality stock. it just means that investors have already market up the stock and are buying it ahead of the future growth being expected. In this case, 2026s future growth. Traders gonna trade. They dont care about the future value of a stock. they care about Profit this week or this month and then on to the next one. however the investors do care. They are looking for getting a deal on something that can swell up with earnings and juicy future value dividends. Investors want a discounted price today, and 20 years of accumulated earnings so they can milk the future dividend payouts. Any who, just watch out and be aware. Its a fast horse, its also a popular one.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by optionfarmers
Good chance to get in now......with this still unknown Blockchain company instead of investing in Bitcoin! I have been working intensively with this company for more than four weeks and see a unique opportunity to get in right now. Based on the company's recent acquisitions, I expect that growth will be significant this year and that the break-even point will be reached or even exceeded. However, this is only an idea and not an investment recommendation. Penny stocks are subject to a large volatility. For more information about this company, visit their website at: wellfield.io
TSXV:WFLDLong
by DX-Trader
RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES There are several risk management strategies that can be used to help mitigate potential losses and increase the chances of success in any investment or trading endeavor. Here are a few common risk management strategies: Diversification is an essential risk management strategy that involves spreading your investments across different markets, asset classes, and securities. The goal of diversification is to reduce the overall risk in your portfolio by minimizing the impact of any single investment or market on your portfolio. When you diversify your portfolio, you spread your investments across different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and commodities. You also diversify across different markets, such as domestic and international markets, and across different sectors, such as healthcare, technology, and consumer goods. By diversifying across different asset classes, markets, and sectors, you can help balance out potential losses in any one area. For example, if you have all of your investments in the stock market, you are vulnerable to a significant loss if the stock market experiences a downturn. However, if you have some investments in bonds or commodities, those investments may perform well during a market downturn, helping to offset your losses in the stock market. Additionally, diversification can help you take advantage of opportunities in different markets and sectors. For example, if the stock market is experiencing a downturn, other markets, such as commodities or international markets, may be performing well. By diversifying your investments, you can take advantage of these opportunities and potentially improve your overall returns. It's important to note that diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss, but it can help reduce the overall risk in your portfolio. However, diversification requires careful planning and ongoing management. You should regularly review your portfolio and make adjustments to ensure that your investments remain diversified and aligned with your goals and risk tolerance. Diversification is a critical risk management strategy that can help reduce the impact of any single investment or market on your portfolio. By spreading your investments across different markets, asset classes, and securities, you can help balance out potential losses and take advantage of opportunities in different areas. Setting stop losses is a vital risk management strategy that involves setting a predetermined price point at which you will sell a security to limit potential losses on any given trade. Stop losses are commonly used by day traders and other active investors to protect their portfolio from large drawdowns and minimize potential losses. The concept of a stop loss is relatively simple. When you buy a security, you set a price point at which you are willing to sell the security if the price drops to a certain level. This level is known as the stop loss level. If the security's price reaches the stop loss level, the security is sold automatically, limiting your potential losses. The main benefit of using stop losses is that they allow you to manage risk effectively. By setting a stop loss, you limit the amount of money you can potentially lose on any given trade. This can help prevent large drawdowns and protect your portfolio from significant losses. Stop losses are also valuable because they help you avoid emotional trading decisions. When you have a predetermined stop loss level, you can take the emotion out of trading decisions. This can help prevent you from holding onto losing trades for too long, which can result in even greater losses. However, it's important to note that setting stop losses is not foolproof. In fast-moving markets or markets with low liquidity, a stop loss order may not execute at the desired price, resulting in losses greater than expected. Additionally, setting stop losses too close to the market price may result in the order executing prematurely, potentially missing out on gains. Setting stop losses is an important risk management strategy that can help protect your portfolio from significant losses. By setting a predetermined price point at which you are willing to sell a security, you can limit potential losses and avoid emotional trading decisions. However, it's essential to use stop losses carefully and adjust them as needed to ensure that they are aligned with your goals and risk tolerance. Position sizing is an important risk management strategy that involves determining the appropriate amount of capital to allocate to each trade based on the level of risk involved. Position sizing is critical because it helps you manage the risk in your portfolio and avoid overexposure to high-risk positions. The idea behind position sizing is to ensure that the amount of capital you allocate to each trade is proportionate to the level of risk involved. For example, if you're taking on a high-risk trade, you'll want to allocate less capital to that trade to limit the potential losses. Conversely, if you're taking on a low-risk trade, you may allocate more capital to that trade. Position sizing can be calculated in various ways, but the most common method is to use a percentage of your account balance for each trade. For example, if you have a $100,000 account and you decide to risk 2% of your account on each trade, you would allocate $2,000 to each trade. By carefully managing position sizing, you can limit the impact of any single trade on your portfolio. If you allocate too much capital to a single trade, you run the risk of losing a significant portion of your portfolio if that trade goes wrong. On the other hand, if you allocate too little capital to a trade, you may miss out on potential gains. Position sizing is also essential for avoiding overexposure to high-risk positions. If you have too much capital allocated to high-risk trades, you run the risk of suffering significant losses if those trades go wrong. By carefully managing position sizing, you can ensure that you have a well-diversified portfolio with appropriate levels of risk. Position sizing is a critical risk management strategy that helps you manage the risk in your portfolio by determining the appropriate amount of capital to allocate to each trade based on the level of risk involved. By carefully managing position sizing, you can limit the impact of any single trade on your portfolio and avoid overexposure to high-risk positions. The risk-reward ratio is an important risk management tool that can help you make more informed trading decisions. The ratio measures the potential return on investment against the amount of risk involved in a particular trade. By focusing on trades with a favorable risk-reward ratio, you can increase your chances of success and limit potential losses. The risk-reward ratio is typically expressed as a ratio of the potential reward to the potential risk. For example, if you're considering a trade where the potential reward is $2,000 and the potential risk is $1,000, the risk-reward ratio would be 2:1. A favorable risk-reward ratio means that the potential reward is greater than the potential risk. By focusing on trades with a favorable risk-reward ratio, you can increase your chances of success. This is because you're only taking on trades where the potential reward outweighs the potential risk. This means that even if some trades don't work out, you can still make a profit if the majority of your trades have a favorable risk-reward ratio. One of the benefits of the risk-reward ratio is that it helps you avoid emotional trading decisions. By focusing on the potential reward relative to the potential risk, you can take the emotion out of trading decisions. This can help prevent you from taking on trades with too much risk or holding onto losing trades for too long. It's important to note that a favorable risk-reward ratio doesn't guarantee success. Even trades with a high potential reward relative to the potential risk can still result in losses. However, by focusing on trades with a favorable risk-reward ratio, you can limit potential losses and increase your chances of success over the long run. The risk-reward ratio is an essential risk management tool that measures the potential return on investment against the amount of risk involved. By focusing on trades with a favorable risk-reward ratio, you can increase your chances of success and limit potential losses. It's important to use the risk-reward ratio in conjunction with other risk management strategies to ensure that you have a well-diversified and balanced portfolio. Staying informed is an essential risk management strategy for day traders. It involves keeping up-to-date with the latest news and developments in the market, both on a macroeconomic level and for individual securities. By staying informed, traders can identify potential risks and opportunities and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. There are many ways to stay informed as a day trader. One of the most important is to keep an eye on financial news sources, such as Bloomberg, CNBC, and The Wall Street Journal. These sources can provide valuable insights into market trends, company news, and other factors that can impact your trades. Many day traders also use social media, such as Twitter and Reddit, to stay informed about the latest news and trends in the market. Staying informed also means staying up-to-date on changes in regulations, economic indicators, and other macroeconomic factors that can impact the market. For example, changes in interest rates, trade policies, or fiscal policy can have a significant impact on market performance. By staying informed about these factors, traders can adjust their trading strategies accordingly and make more informed trading decisions. In addition to staying informed about the market, traders should also stay informed about their individual securities. This means monitoring earnings reports, company news, and other developments that can impact the price of a particular security. By staying informed about individual securities, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy, sell, or hold a particular security. Staying informed is an essential risk management strategy for day traders. By staying up-to-date on the latest news and developments in the market, traders can identify potential risks and opportunities and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. Staying informed involves monitoring financial news sources, social media, macroeconomic factors, and individual securities to make more informed trading decisions. Overall, effective risk management involves a combination of these and other strategies, as well as careful planning, discipline, and a commitment to a sound trading strategy. By using these techniques and remaining focused on your goals, you can better manage risk and increase your chances of success in any investment or trading endeavor. STAY GREEN
AMEX:SPYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn37963351
Tight Consolidation in Lam ResearchSemiconductors have outperformed lately as investors get excited about demand from artificial intelligence (AI). Today’s chart considers equipment supplier Lam Research. The first pattern is the rising 50-day simple moving average (SMA). LRCX has consolidated in a tight range around that line during the last three weeks, a potential sign the intermediate-term uptrend remains in effect. Next, roll back the clock to mid-January when the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA. That kind of “golden cross” may suggest the longer-term direction has turned more bullish. Third, the recent lows were near a 50 percent retracement of the rally between late-December and early February. Finally, prices are back above the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), which may suggest bulls are taking control over the shorter term. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:LRCX
by TradeStation
1
Interpreting the Silicon Valley Bank Incident After the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve used monetary policy to fight the pandemic, and household savings deposits reached about $1 trillion, with broad money M2 growing by over 25%. Many people were bullish on the US stock market, believing that these huge amounts of idle cash would one day enter the market as stocks. Obviously, many people forgot the double-entry accounting principle - for every credit, there must be a corresponding debit. For Silicon Valley Bank, with deposits of over $100 billion, all of its depositors are the largest and bluest venture capital companies and technology newcomers in Silicon Valley, including Peter Thiel's Founder's Fund. Since the Federal Reserve interest rate is zero, they bought the world's safest assets - short-term US bonds, and even earned some interest. However, the good times did not last. By the end of 2021, US inflation began to soar, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began to lose control, causing short-term US bond yields to soar, leading to the biggest US bond market crash in over 200 years in 2022. Suddenly, the world's safest asset became the storm's eye, and the US bond holdings in Silicon Valley Bank's account began to bleed. Even if they haven't sold yet, accounting requires mark-to-market valuation. The Silicon Valley market price loss has exceeded its total equity. Rating agencies wasted no time in preparing to downgrade Silicon Valley Bank's rating. However, deposit rates remain close to zero. Americans don't want to be harvested like this, so they began to withdraw their bank deposits and buy money market funds that now yield nearly 4%. If Silicon Valley Bank significantly raises its deposit interest rates, its interest margin income will be reduced, and it will have to pay additional liquidity. At this time, Silicon Valley found itself in a dilemma. Investment bank Goldman Sachs saw commission opportunities and began to suggest that Silicon Valley sell part of its US bond portfolio and sell $2.25 billion of its stocks to replenish capital. This idea was really bad: data disclosed during the roadshow showed that Silicon Valley's customers were withdrawing large sums of money, causing a significant loss of deposits. If it weren't for the roadshow disclosure, the market wouldn't know the details. Now, the market believes that Silicon Valley is about to go bankrupt, accelerating the run on the bank. Since Silicon Valley's customers are all big clients with deposits far exceeding $250,000, more than 95% of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits are not covered by the US deposit insurance limit of $250,000. There must be many other regional banks using similar methods for cash management. Today, they are bound to face the same risks as short-term US bond yields soar. This also explains why the market unilaterally believes that the Federal Reserve will soon stop raising interest rates. Their actions determine their fate. Of course, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy must now consider the impact on the US banking industry. Chairman Powell has recently been saying that he needs to "consider the totality of data." Last night, the market hid in the short-term US bonds out of safe haven demand, causing yields to plummet. Many people continue to be indifferent to the historic inversion of the US bond yield curve. In fact, the inversion of the yield curve is a distortion of risk, which is not sustainable. Its reversal will cause a cataclysmic event. Although long-term risks are stable, short-term risks are high. We need to survive the short term to see the long term. "But such long-term predictions are of no use for the present. In the long term, we are all dead. Economists have it too easy, because their work is useless. At the onset of a storm, economists can only tell us that the storm will pass, and that the ocean will be calm again." - Keynes Now, the global market is concerned: Will Silicon Valley Bank be rescued? Many experts believe that if the US regulatory authorities do not intervene, Silicon Valley will become the second Lehman, which will bring down the US financial system. The market needs to see three measures for rescue: 1) Small depositors with less than $250,000 should receive full payment; 2) Depositors with deposit insurance limits over $250,000 should receive partial payment, and it should be ensured that in the future, depending on the sale of Silicon Valley Bank assets, these large depositors can receive most of their payment (such as 80%); 3) Let one of the four major US banks take over Silicon Valley Bank. The problem now is that less than 3% of Silicon Valley Bank deposit balances are below $250,000. Others are large and blue, including Silicon Valley venture capital companies such as Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, a16z, and GGV Capital. Many Silicon Valley companies involve funds ranging from hundreds of millions to tens of billions. No wonder Silicon Valley was squeezed for more than $40 billion before being taken over. Under such pressure, almost no bank can survive. Unfortunately, US law may not allow it. If the Federal Reserve intervenes, the Silicon Valley crisis must meet the definition of "systemic risk" and there must be "broad-based" risks, and it cannot only benefit a particular company. At the same time, the Federal Reserve cannot intervene in bankrupt companies that have already been taken over. The US Treasury cannot use unlegislated funds without congressional approval, and now there is no money left. In the end, it seems that FDIC has to bear the burden alone. The process of selling Silicon Valley assets to pay large depositors has already begun. It is reported that hedge funds have offered to buy Silicon Valley Bank's deposits at 60%-80% of their value. In times of crisis, Silicon Valley assets can be realized for 60%-80% of their value, and after the panic in the US market subsides, the price should be even higher. After all, US Treasury bonds trade up to $650 billion every day. Will the Federal Reserve open the floodgates again because of Silicon Valley Bank? In fact, Silicon Valley's bankruptcy is precisely due to the Fed's unbridled printing of money, which caused a sharp drop in US bond yields and a surge in savings deposits. If money is printed again using Silicon Valley as an excuse, the Fed's only remaining credibility will be gone. When Lehman collapsed, its assets were worth $640 billion, and its associated derivative contract amounted to trillions of dollars. It was indeed a decisive moment. However, the assets of Silicon Valley Bank this weekend were only $220 billion, and it still held a large number of highly liquid US Treasury bonds. Previously, the market believed that the US economy would not decline, but the Federal Reserve's decision to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, and even stop them soon, made the combination of economic and policy expectations logically hard to convince. During this cycle of rate hikes, Federal Reserve officials maintained a dovish stance until the end of 2021, believing that inflation would be a "transitory, temporary phenomenon." They then changed their tune in 2022, saying that this round of inflation will be "higher and longer." In both recent history and ancient times, the Federal Reserve's forecasting record seems to be lacking. Overnight, the two-year US Treasury yield skyrocketed by more than 5%, the first time since 2007. The degree of inversion of the US Treasury yield curve is the most severe since 1981. Many people mistakenly believe that the inverted US Treasury yield curve is terrifying. In fact, it is more terrifying when the yield curve returns to normal from inversion because this is the moment when the US economy officially enters into a recession. Follow me and you'll get more interesting investment information! Plus, I'll share real-time trading strategies during trading hours, including stocks, gold , crude oil , forex, cryptocurrencies, and more!
S
by EagleEyeStrategy
2
What impact will there be after bankruptcy for SVB? The main reason for SVB's problem this time is liquidity. The banking industry is different from other industries, where the importance of liquidity is far greater than profitability. In the past few decades, there have been too many banks that have experienced extreme risks due to liquidity issues, and SVB has fallen into the same trap. The management was aware of the bankruptcy, as the CEO cashed out $3.6 million in stocks two weeks before disclosing the losses. The exaggeration was that a few hours before the announcement of bankruptcy, the company still distributed bonuses for 2022 to its employees. It is a stark contrast between those who received the bonus and thinking about how to spend it, and those who cannot withdraw their deposits and are worried about the situation. The market is concerned about the possibility of systemic risk and a Lehman-like crisis. As discussed earlier, based on the data, the liquidity risk of large banks is manageable, and the Federal Reserve is providing a backstop. However, there are around 5,000 banks in the United States, and more than just SVB may face liquidity risks in a high-interest rate environment. (Based on the data, there is a significant amount of unrealized losses for the four largest banks in the United States. The risk depends on the ratio of "hold-to-maturity investments/total liabilities." The ratios for the four banks are 22%, 12%, 12%, and 17%, while SVB's ratio is as high as 47%. Overall, the risk appears manageable.) The bankruptcy of SVB has the deepest impact on technology companies, as Silicon Valley Bank was set up to provide financing to technology companies, so many technology companies also keep their cash in SVB. Many companies have already disclosed the amount of their deposits in SVB over the weekend, and the impact on the technology industry is indeed significant. In theory, the money in SVB is safe because the asset problem is not significant, but due to the mismatch of terms, it takes six months or even a year to pay, which is a huge pressure for some technology startups. Those who have started a business know that every day they wake up, they have to pay rent and salaries, and liquidity is the core support for company operations. Hedge funds in the United States have already begun to look for opportunities to enter this time-limited money-making opportunity. Today, a hedge fund proposed to buy the startup company's deposits in SVB at a price as low as 60% of face value. It is indeed taking advantage of the situation to buy at this price, and if the asset confirmation is no problem, the portion due in a year, which is a 5% discount rate, is highly likely to be recovered by more than 90%. The bankruptcy of SVB has had a significant impact on financial assets, and the US stock market has fallen for two consecutive days mostly because of this. The US bond yield has also fallen for two consecutive days, and the flight to safety sentiment is beginning to spread. In the final analysis, the reason for SVB's bankruptcy this time is the Federal Reserve's rapid rate hike. Many contradictions will be highlighted in a high-interest-rate environment. The United States may still be relatively stable, and the greatest volatility may be in Europe and emerging markets. The follow-up is to pay attention to whether there will be further impacts and the Federal Reserve's further actions. The Federal Reserve has confirmed that it will hold an emergency closed meeting of the Federal Reserve System Board of Directors at 11:30 am local time on Monday, and we await the outcome of the meeting. Follow me and you'll get more interesting investment information! Plus, I'll share real-time trading strategies during trading hours, including stocks, gold , crude oil , forex, cryptocurrencies, and more!
S
by EagleEyeStrategy
ETH: Waiting for a rebound opportunity to go shortETH: Judging from the 4-hour chart, the market has shown a three-wave downward structure, of which the third wave has been extended, and the continuous strength of the bears is still continuing. In terms of operating ideas, the market continues to rebound and short. ETH: 1480-1500 empty, near the target 1370 In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by Blessed_V
5
TSLA SHORT TSLA up trended well from a double bottom to close out 2022 to a head and shoulders pattern through February and is now in a downtrend. Within that downtrend, there have been some small pullbacks. The MACD indicator suggests with the lines crossing under the histogram, that a pullback will soon occur. I see this an opportunity to buy put options with mid-May expiration at a strike midway between current price and the retracement zone from the January up trend. Fundamentally, competition in China and maybe the USA with Lucid, continue to challenge Telse as does union efforts in the NY solar panel plant, the delays in Cybertruck and rising interest rates. Demand has been soft lately TSLA dropped its prices to stimulate interest and revenues could stall one way or another. This suggests the downtrend may maintain its momentum.
PYTH:TSLAShort
by AwesomeAvani
The prices of these coins will soar all the way in 2023 1. AI coins ChatGPT is the next big thing because it can quickly solve difficult tasks.It has passed a major medical exam in the United States, cooperated with Microsoft, and is attracting competition from Google. Therefore, crypto AI technology is booming, driving the bullish momentum of coins such as $FET, $AGIX,$GRT,$RNDR and several AI coins. 2. ZK Rollups Ethereum stores global transaction data, but high gas fees make it difficult.ZK-rollups uses encryption tools to reduce the Ethereum blockchain space and expand the network. This is a promising technology extensibility solution for Ethereum. The following is a list of coins with ZK summary: $LRC,$IMX,$MINA,$MATIC will release the beta version of the zkEVM mainnet. 3. Mobile pledge tokens on decentralized pledge services The SEC plans to ban pledge services in the United States, which has threatened the cryptocurrency pledge industry. Kraken was fined US300,000 and ordered to shut down its pledge service, and coinbase is also preparing to fight the SEC's crackdown. Liquidity pledge tokens are on the rise, because decentralized pledge services may replace centralized platforms that may face bans in the United States. The following are some coins that are bullish after the event: $LDO,$RPL and $ANKR. 4. Chinese coin Narrative HongKong will officially legalize Crypto buying, selling and trading for all its citizens in 2023.This also includes institutions in mainland China. As a result, Chinese currency is bullish. LINA: Cross Chain Exchange from Hong Kong, Binance Launchpad KEY: Enabling Crypto Payments in Hong Kong MDT: Monetizing Data Coin from Hong Kong ACH: Enabling Crypto Payments in Hong Kong SAND: Building Hong Kong's Metaverse Backed by Animoca Brands 5. Bitcoin ordinal According to coinmarketcap, the BTC ordinal number is "sats" or satoshis, which has been sorted and engraved with a piece of information, such as text or images.This piece of information makes sat unique and turns it into a de facto NFT. In this kind of hype, what coins have soared? Stacks' $STX token soared to a nine-month high of US1.0491 due to increased interest in Bitcoin NFT driven by the ordinal project. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Blessed_V
2
Non-farm payrolls data is about to bearish the gold market!Today, the U.S. February quarter-adjusted non-farm payrolls data will be released. Everyone knows that this data will play a key role in the gold market, because the performance of non-farm payrolls will directly affect the fundamental sentiment, which will determine the direction of the gold market in a short period of time.Does the non-farm payrolls data to be released today benefit the gold market or suppress the gold market?Let us make a bold prediction. On Wednesday, the announced value of ADP employment in the United States in February was 242,000, the previous value was 119,000, and the forecast value was 200,000, while the actual announced value of 242,000 was much higher than the previous value and the forecast value. To a certain extent, it shows that the U.S. economy is strong and supports the dollar, thereby suppressing the gold market. On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish speech suppressed the gold market. However, after Fed Chairman Powell mentioned on Wednesday that the rate of interest rate increases in March depends on the data, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States released on Thursday was 210,000, higher than the previous value of 190,000 and the forecast value of 195,000, reflecting that the tight job market in the United States has still not eased, causing the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March to cool down, US bond yields fell sharply, and the dollar was dragged down, which benefited the gold market. And today's non-farm payrolls data show that the market expects the number of new jobs to be 205,000, compared with the previous value of 517,000. Judging from the ADP data guidance, the non-farm payrolls data show that the market expects the number of new jobs to be higher than the expected value of 205,000, and the number of initial jobless claims in February remained at a comparable level. Although the number of people applying for unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week was as high as 210,000, overall, the number of new jobs in the month will not have much impact, so I think the non-farm payrolls released today will be higher than the expectation of 205,000, thereby suppressing the gold market. It should also be noted that the position of SPDR, the world's largest gold ETF, decreased by 3.47 tons to 903.15 tons on Thursday, a new low since the end of January 2020, suggesting that institutional and professional investors are still inclined to bearish the gold market. It can also be seen from the trend of gold. Although gold has recorded a strong rise in the short term, the strong pressure above still exists. Therefore, the early rise of gold is most likely to be to prepare for non-farm payrolls data and reserve room for the decline of the gold market.Then everyone thinks that the non-farm payrolls data to be released today will benefit the gold market or suppress the gold market?Everyone is welcome to come and discuss. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Blessed_V
3
GBPUSD, SELL 4HDisclaimer: We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided by our Forex signal provider. All information provided is intended for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice. We are not responsible for any losses that may incur as a result of using our signals. It is the responsibility of the user to do their own research and make their own decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
by gbaraka6
Show me a chart that matters more than this?The chart I've created here shows yield on the US 10 Year Treasury Bond. The white line shows its percentage change over the last 12 months. The red line shows the S&P 500. It shows the S&P 500 over the last 12 months. What more needs to be said? The S&P 500 is red over the last year while the yield on bonds continues to rise. REMEMBER: with every increase in bond yield, the risk for things like stocks becomes more difficult. A bond will pay you close to 5%. Apple, on the other hand, will pay a 2% dividend. If Apple does not grow at all, or increase buybacks or new products, or if a recession hits, then the bond yield is indeed the better trade. The further these two assets widen, the more difficult the trade off becomes. HOWEVER, that's not to say that stocks and bond yields cannot go up at the same time. Actually, in prior bull markets, they have risen together. If innovation continues, if economic growth continues, and if inflation starts to get under control, we very likely could see this gap shrink in an instant. I am watching insider transactions to see how much faith top directors, teammates, and employees have in their respective company. Several CEOs have recently bought large chunks of shares out of their own bank accounts. What do this say? Thanks for reading!
AMEX:SPY
by scheplick
2
LANDSHARE HAS THE STRONGEST AND THE BEST POTENTIAL.This is my technical analysis for this great project called LANDSHARE where a real asset are tokenized specifically real estate. The project offers an investment into the real estate " TOKENIZED ASSET " for only 50$ . This project has a great potential to reach 600$ based on the technical analysis and on the other hand the fundamental analysis say it has the potential to reach 1000$ . Also the crypto space may get involved in the real estate businesses where LANDSHARE will be the face of it. The team behind LANDSHARE project are doing amazing things to improve the project and developing it in the right way. Not financial advice.
Long
by hgpvfd132
3
The Seven Major Factors Affecting Gold.Firstly, the demand for gold commodities affects the price. In addition to its use as a daily decorative item, gold plays an important role in industry, occupying an irreplaceable position in industries such as dentistry, electronics, and others. As a hedge tool, the price of gold is influenced by demand, and the supply and demand relationship directly affects the price of gold. Changes in production will also affect the gold price, such as the demand for teeth in Japan and the demand for jewelry in India, both of which directly affect the monthly price trend of gold each year. Secondly, the gold output determines the supply-demand balance of gold. The production of gold-producing countries directly affects the supply-demand balance of gold. Currently, China has the largest gold production, followed by South Africa. Any unexpected event, such as strikes and other special situations, will have an impact on the gold price. Thirdly, international interest rates and exchange rates directly affect the gold price. Interest rates and exchange rates have a direct impact on the gold price, especially the trend of the US dollar. The international status of the US gold price directly determines the status of the country's international finance, and the price of the US dollar also directly affects the price of gold. As the US dollar, which also has investment functions like gold, it directly affects the gold price. If the investment trend of the US dollar is strong, gold investment will be relatively less, while the opposite is true for the US dollar in a weak investment market, where the role of gold as a reserve asset and a hedge will be stronger. Fourthly, inflation stimulates the gold price. When the consumer price index rises and inflation affects investments, gold is no exception. When the price fluctuation of a country is severe, and the inflation rate is high, and the price fluctuation is severe, people's panic will intensify. When purchasing power declines, people will worry about future security and choose to buy gold to hedge, which will cause the gold price to continue to rise. Although the current role of gold in fighting inflation is not as significant as before, high inflation will still stimulate the gold price. Fifthly, political situations such as wars can stimulate the gold price. Political instability promotes the rise of the gold price, and war causes a rise in commodity prices, leading to a rise in gold prices. Similarly, as a critical strategic material, the price of gold has a remarkable correlation with the price of oil. When the price of oil rises, the gold price rises as well. Conversely, when the price of oil falls, the gold price also falls. Sixth, as a safe-haven demand, gold is the first choice Due to the small total reserves, the price of gold is relatively stable, and because it has served as a currency, it is an excellent tool for hedging and hedging. As an important hedging tool, gold has strong political sensitivity. Jewelry in prosperous times, gold in troubled times, when the economy is in recession, investment will favor gold more, and it will also directly affect the price of gold. 7. Investors’ psychological expectations The psychological expectations of investors are an important factor affecting the price of gold, but they usually do not act alone. Instead, they often change in conjunction with the variations in the aforementioned factors, amplifying or reducing the expected value of gold and causing significant differences in its price. Following the footsteps of the market, respecting the market, and aweing the market is to follow the market Pay attention to me and you will discover that trading is so simple and enjoyable!
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by Ice_and_Fire1
Amplitude: 2021 IPO Comeback Kid $AMPL $COIN $SNOWDoesn't look like there are many buyers for $AMPL, a peer of $COIN $SNOW 2020-2021 IPO cohorts, though business results look promising in the long-term. I'd say anything above $10 is a good entry for this as a long-term tech stock that can outperform in future cycles. Amplitude Inc (NASDAQ:AMPL) The 8 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Amplitude Inc have a median target of $17.50, with a high estimate of 20.00 and a low estimate of 15.00 . The median estimate represents a +32.28% increase from the last price of 13.23. In the chart above, I have 3 bullish scenarios. All 3 are negated if the price drops below $10 As of now, it looks like there's still a lot of post-IPO sell pressure and aside from price defense at $10 late this year, not much new insti investor interest. "We're so early!" - Famous Last Words
NASDAQ:AMPLLong
by Sticky9000
1
UniDex: a DeFi aggregator for traders🟢 Here is a project that is off the radar in its embryonic phase, whose intention is to be an aggregator of Swaps, Options, Perpetual Contracts, etc. The risk is very high: the token is not yet on any CEX. Only traded on the Ethereum network and Arbitrum network. 📝 Definition "UniDex's primary mission is to provide the most seamless trading experience by aggregating anything & everything. We aim to be the Nasdaq of DeFi. UniDex is a DeFi platform that aims to provide a hub for traders to access the best rates for financial instruments within the ecosystem. We envision UniDex as a platform similar to NASDAQ, where traders can place orders for any type of financial instrument, and UniDex will route the order to the best available rate against hundreds of sources & matching orders. In the short and long term, UniDex plans to offer a range of trading tools to support this experience, including... Options Aggregation Swap Aggregation Perpetual Aggregation Cross-chain trading Exotic leverage trading pairs Advanced analytics and many more opportunities to come " 📈 DeFi For now, the token can be traded on Uniswap (Ethereum network), and on TraderJoe (Arbitrum network).
ULong
by andre_007
Value, Growth or neither?Looking at equity markets as a conflict between Value stocks and Growth stocks has become a reflex for many market commentators. ‘Growth is beating Value’ (or the other way around) is always a good headline. Value stocks are defined as basically cheap stocks and it is, therefore, possible in any index, to point to the Value side of that index. Growth stocks are defined as stocks with above-average growth prospects. So again, it is possible to look at an index and point to the growthiest stocks. The main index providers have done exactly that by splitting their main indices in two down the middle, a Growth and a Value version, as early as the 1980s. Using Value and Growth to explain the last ten years While simplistic and playing into human’s love of false dichotomies, it is true that this narrative explained the last ten years of equity performance pretty well. From the overwhelming domination of Growth stocks, in a negative interest rate environment where investment was cheap, to the start of a Value revival last year, on the back of the most aggressive tightening cycle in decades. What about the other factors? Didn’t Quality perform better over that period? However, most things in our world can’t be reduced to a simple choice. Academics have demonstrated over the last five decades that multiple other factors can be used to slice and dice the markets to create outperforming portfolios. In the 90s, Fama and French introduced their 3-factors model using Value but also Size and Momentum to explain market returns. More recently, they added Profitability (often called Quality) and Investment in a new 5-factors model. Looking at the performance of the seven leading factors over the last ten years, we note that while Growth beat the market by 1.6% per annum and Value underperformed by 1.9% per annum, the strongest factor was, in fact, Quality with an outperformance of 2.3% per annum1. Is Quality Value or Growth, then? Using Quality as a third lens, we observe that companies in the Value index are, on average, less profitable than those in the benchmark, and that those in the Growth index are, on average, more so. 23% of the S&P 500 Value exhibit less than 10% in return on equity (ROE) versus less than 5% for the S&P 500 Growth. And 25% of the S&P 500 Growth has more than 50% in ROE versus less than 5% for the Value index. However, what is fascinating is that in the Value index, there are still some very profitable companies and in the Growth index, there are still some unprofitable companies. In other words, the Value/Growth dichotomy is very different from the High Quality/Low Quality one. The market could therefore be split not into two indices (Value and Growth) but into four: High-Quality Value High-Quality Growth Low-Quality Value Low-Quality Growth Historically, High-Quality Value has outperformed High-Quality Growth Using academic data, it is possible to splice US equity markets since the 60s into groups by fundamental data. In Figure 3, we focus every year on the 20% of the universe with the highest operating profitability (that is, High Quality in Figure 3). That group is then split into five further quintiles depending on their valuations (using price to book (P/B) as a metric) from the cheapest to the most expensive. We observe that picking profitable companies with high P/B would have outperformed the market since the 60s but would have underperformed profitable companies in general. On the contrary, picking cheaper High-Quality companies would have outperformed both the market and the overall High-Quality grouping. In other words, Quality Value has outperformed Quality Growth over the last 60 years in US equity markets. Looking at other geographies, such as Europe, we find similar results. At WisdomTree, we believe that a well-constructed Quality strategy can be the cornerstone of an equity portfolio.High-Quality companies exhibit an ‘all-weather’ behaviour that offers a balance between building wealth over the long term whilst protecting the portfolio during economic downturns. However, in 2022, secondary tilts were incredibly important. Value stocks benefitted from central banks’ hawkishness, leaning on their low implied duration to deliver outstanding performance in a particularly hard year for equities. Among Quality-focused strategies, the one with Value tilt delivered outperformance on average, and the one with Growth tilt tended to underperform. Looking forward to 2023, recession risk continues to hang over the market like the sword of Damocles. While inflation has shown signs of easing, we expect central banks to remain hawkish around the globe as inflation is still very meaningfully above targets. The recent coordinated communication plan by Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee members is a further example of this continued hawkishness. With markets facing many of the same issues in 2023 that they faced in the second half of 2022, it looks like resilient investments that tilt to Quality and Value that have done particularly well in 2022 could continue to benefit. Sources 1 Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. From 31 January 2013 to 31 January 2023. Growth is proxied by the MSCI World Growth net TR Index. Value is proxied by the MSCI World Value net TR Index. Quality is proxied by MSCI World Quality net TR Index. The remaining 4 factors (Min Vol, High Dividend Small Cap and Momentum) are also proxied by indices in the MSCI families.
NASDAQ:NQFFUSQ
by aneekaguptaWTE