Growth
Higher for LongerUS inflation data in July 2023 provided mixed signals. While Consumer Price Index (CPI) is moving in the right direction, producer price inflation suggest pipeline pressures are picking up. Core CPI, which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs, rose only 0.2% for a second month in a row . However, US producer prices picked up in July, owing to increases in certain service categories. This likely buys more time for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliberate on the future path of monetary policy.
The flows into bond exchange traded funds (ETFs) have been volatile. Over the past year, investors were starting to embrace duration. Investors were positioned for recession, inflation crash, and Fed cuts - evident from $31.7bn inflows to Treasury bond ETFs on pace for a record year2. However, investors are starting to pull out of the biggest bond ETFs devoted to Treasuries. More than $1.8 billion came out of the $39 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF last week, the most since March 20203. Sentiment toward long-dated Treasuries has soured over the past month amid growing conviction that the Fed will keep interest rates at elevated levels for an extended period. We expect rates to remain higher for longer and are unlikely to see the Fed cut rates until the Q1 of next year amidst a stronger US economy.
Don’t celebrate on disinflation just yet
Overall, the US economy continues to show extraordinary resilience despite monetary constraints and credit tightening. While inflation has shown encouraging signs of decline, we caution that the level remains high. Strong July retail sales raise the risk of a re-acceleration in inflation. The four biggest categories of the ex-auto’s component saw outsized gains: non-store retailers, restaurants & bars, groceries, and general merchandise. Amidst a tight US labour market, with unemployment at historic lows and wages continuing to rise, the downward pricing momentum in the service sector is likely to be at a slower rate. Commodity prices are also beginning to rebound from the weakness seen in Q2 2023. Energy prices have been rising on the back of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) production cuts. If commodity prices extend their recent momentum, it could pose upside risks to inflation.
Fed Officials remain divided
Messaging on a somewhat mixed inflation outlook from the Fed Officials remains a mixed bag. One faction remains of the view that rates hikes over the past year and a half has done its job while another group contends that pausing too soon could risk inflation re-accelerating. Fed governor’s Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller remain in the hawkish camp, hinting at more rate increases being needed to get inflation on a path down to the 2% target.
Futures markets are assigning about a 11% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike when the Fed next meets on 19 and 20 September4. Additionally, rate cuts have now been completely taken off the table until perhaps later in the Q1 2024. The latest Fed minutes reveal commentary from officials, including the hawks, such as Neel Kashkari, suggest a willingness to pause again in September, but to leave the door open for further hikes at the upcoming meetings5.
Opportunity for a yield seeking investor
It’s been an impressive turnaround since the pandemic when negative real yields became the norm. TINA- ‘There Is No Alternative’ to equities, is over now that evidence of the shift to a 5% world appears stronger than ever. Today investors have the opportunity to lock in one of the highest yields in decades, with US two-year yields paying close to 5% exceeding the yields at longer maturities without the volatility witnessed in the 10-year sector. A resilient US economy is likely to keep interest rates and bond yields higher for longer.
Sources
1 Bureau of Labour Statistics as of 10 July 2023
2 BofA ETF Research, Bloomberg as of 9 August 2022 - 9 August 2023
3 Bloomberg as of 14 August 2023
4 Bloomberg as of 17 August 2023
5 federalreserve.gov as of 16 August 2023
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
NAS100 Long Pivot: 15320.00
Our preference:
long positions above 15320.00 with targets at 15600.00 & 15790.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
below 15320.00 look for further downside with 15140.00 & 14970.00 as targets.
Comment:
the next resistances are at 15600.00 and then at 15790.00.
DXYWe are waiting for the price to reach 102.274. If it is broken and a candle closes below it, we will confirm the scenario shown in the chart. TVC:DXY
GOLDThe area shown in the chart is a strong demand area, and there is strong volume in the gold market, we are waiting to reach $1957
USOIL LONGOil was analyzed on large frames, and we waited for the daily trend break, to reach $92
BY: ASO ALWAN
LUV Weekly Chart Showing Heavy DemandSouthwest Airlines has been going through some turbulence with recent flight rearrangement issues, but for the most part has smoothened out all issues regarding flights. Air Travel Demand is still thriving and growing exponentially, respectively.
Southwest is a leader among a few others in Airline Stocks as they have High-Quality Management & Great Financial Strategy (e.g. Fuel hedging)
The stock has performed quite poorly since its post-COVID peak of $65 and has retreated nearly 50% while remaining a sound financial base. Southwest has been hovering around this major demand zone at the $30 area. As highlighted in green, this demand zone has repeatedly pushed LUV back up higher, and on this weekly chart, we can see a triple bottom starting to push back higher from this $31 level.
This weekly chart prevails a strong Risk/Reward towards Southwest as a swing-trade or LT investment.
Southwest has remained a fundamentally strong & sound company as they are the first American Airline Co. to reinstate their dividend. EPS projections are very optimistic for the next several years as demand increases & costs decrease. It would also be likely to see a rotation into the travel / Airlines sector as it has been quite low and non-volatile thru the past half year. Recent PT cuts lead me to believe Funds could be loading up
Conclusion: LONG NYSE:LUV through commons
Option Play: Credit-Spread : Jan 19, '24 Puts $30-$27.5p
Macro Economics- BRICS Oil Nations, GDPHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts 📈💰
The 15th BRICS summit was held in South Africa from August 22-24, 2023. There have been some important updates that concluded from this summit and if you're an active trader / speculator in the Forex, stocks or commodities market, you NEED to know about this.
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) now control 30% of the entire global economy. This is up from 17% in 2000 and 23% in 2010 . The BRICS countries are also home to 42% of the world's population.
Incase you missed the previous article, find it here:
BRICS Total GDP With New Members:
B razil: $2.08 trillion
R ussia: $2.06 trillion
I ndia: $3.74 trillion
C hina: $19.37 trillion
S outh Africa: $399 billion
Saudi Arabia: $1.06 trillion
Argentina: $641 billion
UAE: $499 billion
Egypt: $387 billion
Iran: $367 billion
Ethiopia: $156 billion
BRICS will now control 30% of the global economy.
If you're invested in any BRICS related stocks or Forex markets, this concerns you!
The summit outcomes are expected to lead to a weaker US dollar in the near term. This means that currencies against the dollar will strengthen. This is because the BRICS countries are collectively a major source of demand for commodities, such as oil and gold.
The outcomes of this summit lead to proposed increased investment in the BRICS economies. This could lead to higher demand for commodities, which would put upward pressure on commodity prices and the value of currencies of commodity-exporting countries, such as the Brazilian real and the Russian ruble. This would make the US dollar less attractive to investors, which could lead to a weaker dollar.
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NVDA ~ Long-Term Buyers ZoneNvidia ~ A beast of a company & Leader in the Semi-Conductors and Computer industry
NVDA Stock has fallen nearly 60% with the recent market downturn. Nvidia has came to levels now attractive to buyers and is finding some Long-Term Support dating back to TrendLines from Years ago & Previous Resistance Zone in the Fall / Winter of 2020/2021.
Though Nvidia had some bad news recently which has pushed it further in to this zone, long term outlook from the company has not changed one bit. As the Price of NVDA falls the value behind the stock only increases, with the p/e falling to near 35.
Earnings are continuously growing annually, and this company is a monster in Tech. Long Term outlook here is strong, and the Risk/Reward near these levels are optimal for Long-Term investors.
If NVDA Breaks Below its current demand Zone which I expect it to consolidate in, we could see a run down to $100 and then Pre-Pandemic Levels.
TTM_Squeeze also indicates bearish momentum fading on the stock.
Overall, my thesis for NVDA Long-Term (3-5 years) is strong and bullish for new fresh ATHs.
INDIAGLYCOLS, Round bottom completion, trendline breakoutIndia Glycol was falling from its high because a fund house started selling, that selling has been observed and now stocks has started its upward journey,
Stock has given closing above 200 wema and given trendline breakout.
Volumes also shown building up and stock can chase its 52 wk high and then ath.
Company has also announced capex which is a good sign for the company.
Stock has also announced 7.5 rs dividend.
Forex & Stocks: Capitalize on BRICS2023Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts 📈💰
The 15th BRICS summit is being held in South Africa from August 22-24, 2023 and will undoubtedly affect the Forex market. The main reason for this, is the commonly know agenda of BRICS to implement a new reserve currency instead of the USD. More details on that topic here:
The 5 Forex markets we'll consider are: FX_IDC:USDINR FX:USDCNH FX_IDC:USDRUB FX_IDC:USDBRL FX:USDZAR
As we can clearly see from the charts, from a Cycle / Phase analysis, it is dire time for the USD to correct as we see top outs in basically all of the charts Don't be surprised if it goes UP first, then down (sell the news but in reverse for the BRICS currencies).
The summit is being hosted by South Africa, which is the current chair of BRICS. The other members of BRICS are Brazil, Russia, India, and China.
The summit is expected to focus on the war in Ukraine, the global economy, and the expansion of BRICS. The theme of the summit is "BRICS and Africa: Intra-BRICS cooperation for sustainable development in Africa".
Russia's President Vladimir Putin is not attending the summit in person due to the international arrest warrant issued against him for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. He is being represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
The summit is expected to boost investor confidence in the BRICS economies. This is because the summit will provide an opportunity for the BRICS leaders to discuss ways to strengthen their economic cooperation and coordination. This could lead to increased investment in the BRICS economies, which would boost their growth prospects.
Top Stocks to consider are:
1. Petrobras (PBR) is the largest oil and gas company in Brazil. NYSE:PBR
2. Sberbank (SBER) is the largest bank in Russia. MOEX:SBER
3. State Bank of India (SBI) is the largest bank in India. BSE:SBIN
4. China Mobile (CHL) is the largest mobile phone company in China. MIL:CHL
5. Tencent (TCEHY) is a Chinese multinational technology conglomerate. OTC:TCEHY
6. Alibaba (BABA) is a Chinese multinational technology conglomerate. NYSE:BABA
7. Vale (VALE) is a Brazilian multinational mining company. NYSE:VALE
8. PetroChina (PTR) is the largest oil and gas company in China. SSE:601857
9. ONGC (ONGC) is the largest oil and gas company in India. NSE:ONGC
10. Infosys (INFY) is an Indian multinational information technology company. NSE:INFY
The summit is also expected to lead to a weaker US dollar. This means that the other currencies against the dollar as listed on the 4 charts will strengthen. This is because the BRICS countries are collectively a major source of demand for commodities, such as oil and gold. If the summit leads to increased investment in the BRICS economies, it could lead to higher demand for commodities, which would put upward pressure on commodity prices and the value of currencies of commodity-exporting countries, such as the Brazilian real and the Russian ruble. This would make the US dollar less attractive to investors, which could lead to a weaker dollar.
A great way to capitalize on the outcome of BRCIS 2023, is to anticipate and keep an eye out on markets that will potentially be positively affected by this summit.
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The Most Important Chart In The WorldOne seemingly unassuming asset holds a tremendous sway over EVERYTHING: yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond.
Often referred to as the "risk-free rate," as it rises, a domino effect is set in motion, triggering adjustments in mortgage rates, credit card interest rates, lending rates, and the valuation of growth stocks.
That's why I'm saying this is the most important chart in the world.
Study it. Chart it. Follow it.
For homeowners and prospective buyers, changes in the 10-year Treasury yield can be the difference between an affordable mortgage and a substantial financial burden. This impacts millions of home buyers, banks, and middle parties that handle massive transactions.
Credit card interest rates also dance to the tune of the 10-year Treasury yield. Many credit card issuers tie their interest rates to this benchmark, meaning that as the yield climbs, credit card APRs rise as well. This directly affects consumers, who find themselves paying more in interest
on existing balances and new purchases.
Ooooof! See why the 10-year yield matters so much?
There's more...
Lending rates, which influence the cost of borrowing for businesses and individuals alike, are tightly connected to the 10-year Treasury yield as. When the yield rises, banks adjust their prime lending rates upwards, making loans more expensive. This can lead to a slowdown in business expansion and capital expenditure as borrowing becomes less attractive.
Growth stocks... shall we address the elephant in the room? As the yield on the 10-year Treasury rises, the opportunity cost of investing in riskier assets also rises. Investors may shift their focus towards safer assets like bonds due to the improved yield, causing growth stocks to lose their appeal. The valuation of growth stocks heavily relies on discounted cash flow models, which incorporate the risk-free rate as a discounting factor. A higher risk-free rate can lead to lower valuations, affecting investment decisions.
In conclusion, add this asset to your watchlist.
Bitcoin cycle theory - for my friends to look at in 6 years :)I have created this kind of chart in the past with some assumptions that were not exactly correct because I took into account the unit price of BTC and not the market cap of it.
This analysis and prediction is based on logarithmic theory and market cap actualization then divided by units in existence, which basically means the following:
BTC marketcap by years:
2013 - 10B
2017 - 100B (reached 250B due to over spike, will not happen again, price per unit should not have been more than $10k)
2021 - 1T (reached 1,17T with price unit of FWB:65K with cca 18M in circulation)
2025 - 10T (2023 data: 19,467,468 BTC in circulation, with cca 0,5M new BTC to be mined in two years taking into consideration halving from 6,25 to 3,125, gives us a baseline)
2029 - 100T
Taking into account that in 2025 there will be 20M BTC(more or less), the price point would be exactly at $500k per unit, BUT taking into account that market has grown and that there is a visible slowing down of the pace, skimmed prediction would then be sitting in the $350k region
Taking into account that in 2029 there will be 20,5M BTC (more or less), the price point would be at $4,8M per unit, BUT taking into account that market has grown and that there is a visible slowing down of the pace, skimmed prediction would then be sitting in the $2M region
Happy Gam(BL)ing!
Colony Avalanche Blockchain PlayColony is an altcoin in the avalanche blockchain. The team aims to be a venture capital firm, an index provider, a chain validator and an early stage investment platform. They have 10M in the bank and a decently sized position in avalanche at (i'm guessing) an average price around 15 usd/avax. They have a nice user interface which displays a 0,23 USD/colony as a backing but the marginal price of the token is trading at ~0,06. This could be a good entry point for another crypto atlcoin pump and dump. Get in get out get paid, don't marry digital bytes.
GOLD EXPECTATION DURING BRICS SUMMITGold Has Been Breaking Structure Since The Start Of This Week, I Believe The Bulls Are Getting In Strong And Am Expecting The dollar To Drop After The Summit So Now Am Expecting Gold To Retest My Previous Resistance Of Which Is A Level Of Support At 1912 Then After That Move Am Expecting The Gold To Push Even Further Up.
GER30 Long Pivot: 15715.00
Our preference:
long positions above 15715.00 with targets at 15860.00 & 15935.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
below 15715.00 look for further downside with 15620.00 & 15510.00 as targets.
Comment:
the next resistances are at 15860.00 and then at 15935.00
XAUUSD Long Pivot: 23.75
Our preference:
long positions above 23.62 with targets at 24.09 & 24.29 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
below 23.75 look for further downside with 23.58 & 23.42 as targets.
Comment:
the RSI shows upside momentum.
Our key levels:
PYUSD - The PayPal StablecoinHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
PayPal announced yesterday on August 7, 2023 that it has launched a U.S. dollar stablecoin, called PayPal USD (PYUSD) . PYUSD is fully backed by U.S. dollar deposits and short-term U.S. Treasuries, and is issued by Paxos Trust Company. It is available to PayPal customers in the United States with PayPal Balance accounts.
PayPal has partnered with Paxos to launch PYUSD. Paxos is a leading blockchain infrastructure company that specializes in stablecoins. Paxos also issues the BUSD stablecoin, which is used by Binance. PYUSD was first announced in January 2022, but its launch was delayed due to regulatory concerns. However, PayPal has since received approval from the New York State Department of Financial Services to issue PYUSD.
PYUSD is currently valued at $1.00 per token. It can be used to buy, sell, hold, and transfer funds on PayPal. It can also be used to make payments to merchants that accept PayPal.
PayPal has been crypto-friendly for some time. In addition to PYUSD, PayPal also offers four other cryptos: Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, and Litecoin. PayPal customers can buy, sell, hold, and transfer these cryptocurrencies on the PayPal platform.
PayPal's launch of PYUSD is a significant development in the cryptocurrency space. It is the first major financial technology firm to launch its own stablecoin . PayPal's move is likely to boost the adoption of stablecoins and cryptocurrencies in general.
💭 It's interesting to see how the fundamentals tend to follow the chart or vice versa. When we analyze the PayPal chart, we see a definitive completion of a bearish trend / downward cycle. According to Wyckoff Method and other market phases, the next cycle is the upward cycle / bullish phase. And so, this news comes at just the right time to kickstart a new market cycle!
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NASDAQ:PYPL
Empowering Financially Deprived Female Traders: A Letter of Hope
Introduction
Dear Fellow Trader,
I hope this letter finds you in good health and spirits, despite the challenges you might be facing on your journey as a financially deprived female trader. I want you to know that you are not alone in this struggle, and your determination to navigate the world of trading is truly inspiring. In this letter, I aim to offer you guidance, support, and practical insights to help you overcome the hurdles and seize opportunities in the trading landscape.
Acknowledging Your Strength
First and foremost, let me commend your courage. Being a female trader in a field traditionally dominated by men is an accomplishment in itself. Your presence challenges stereotypes and contributes to the diversification of the trading world. Embrace your uniqueness and the fresh perspectives you bring to the table.
The Power of Education
Education is your greatest asset. In a rapidly evolving market, staying updated with the latest trends, tools, and strategies is crucial. Fortunately, the digital age has made education more accessible than ever. Take advantage of online courses, webinars, and educational resources tailored to traders of all experience levels. Knowledge will empower you to make informed decisions and minimize risks.
Building a Support Network
Surround yourself with like-minded individuals who understand your journey. Join trading communities, both online and offline, where you can exchange ideas, seek advice, and share experiences. A strong support network can provide emotional encouragement, practical insights, and valuable connections that can significantly boost your trading career.
Setting Realistic Goals
Dream big, but ground your aspirations in reality. Set achievable short-term and long-term goals that reflect your financial situation, risk tolerance, and market knowledge. Tracking your progress against these goals will help you stay focused and motivated, even during challenging times.
Mastering Risk Management
One of the most critical aspects of trading is managing risk effectively. Protecting your capital should be your top priority. Never invest more than you can afford to lose, and diversify your portfolio to spread risk. Utilize stop-loss orders and position sizing techniques to limit potential losses while allowing room for gains.
Leveraging Technology
Technology has revolutionized trading, leveling the playing field for traders of all backgrounds. Make use of trading platforms, analytical tools, and algorithms to enhance your decision-making process. Automated trading systems can help execute trades even when you’re not actively monitoring the market.
Embracing Resilience
Financial markets are inherently volatile, and losses are a part of the game. What sets successful traders apart is their ability to bounce back from setbacks. Develop resilience by learning from your mistakes, analyzing your failures, and adapting your strategies accordingly. Remember that every loss is a lesson that brings you closer to success.
Continuous Adaptation
Adaptability is key to survival in the trading world. Market conditions change, and strategies that worked before might not be effective today. Stay flexible and open-minded, willing to adjust your approach based on new information and evolving trends.
Seeking Mentorship
Mentorship can provide invaluable guidance based on the firsthand experiences of seasoned traders. Finding a mentor who understands your challenges and aspirations can accelerate your learning curve and help you avoid common pitfalls. Their insights can be a beacon of light during uncertain times.
Navigating Bias and Discrimination
Unfortunately, bias and discrimination still persist in the trading world. As a female trader, you might encounter skepticism or condescension from some quarters. Use these experiences as fuel to prove your capabilities. Let your performance speak louder than any prejudices.
Conclusion
In closing, dear trader, remember that your journey is a testament to your strength, resilience, and determination. The financial struggles you face today do not define your future. With the right knowledge, mindset, and support, you can overcome challenges and achieve success beyond your wildest dreams. Embrace each day as an opportunity to grow, learn, and thrive in the world of trading.
Stay focused, stay hungry, and never lose sight of your potential.
Sincerely,
A Supportive Fellow Trader
BTC Accumulation ZoneAs we see in the Long term every circle BTC have the :
Accumulation Zones
Distribution Zones
And Bear Zones
There is no reason for Panic you are already know that we arent in Alt Season.
Better to name it BTC Season right now.
So keep Calm and accumulate as much as you can
Monetary Policy: Fed Funds & UnemploymentThe unemployment rate and the federal funds effective rate are two important economic indicators that provide insights into the health of an economy, but they represent different aspects of economic activity.
Unemployment Rate:
The unemployment rate is a measure of the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment. It is a key indicator of the overall health of the labor market and can provide insights into the level of economic activity. A low unemployment rate is generally considered a positive sign, as it suggests that a larger portion of the labor force is employed and contributing to economic growth. On the other hand, a high unemployment rate can indicate economic distress and underutilization of human resources.
Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The federal funds effective rate, often referred to as the "federal funds rate," is the interest rate at which depository institutions (such as banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. It is a key tool used by the central bank (in the United States, the Federal Reserve) to influence and control the country's monetary policy. The Federal Reserve sets a target range for the federal funds rate, and it is adjusted as a means to control inflation, stabilize the economy, and influence borrowing and spending by businesses and consumers.
Relationship Between the Two:
While the unemployment rate and the federal funds effective rate are not directly linked, they can influence each other indirectly through broader economic dynamics:
Monetary Policy Influence: The Federal Reserve uses changes in the federal funds rate to impact borrowing costs and, subsequently, economic activity. When the economy is sluggish and unemployment is high, the Fed might lower the federal funds rate to encourage borrowing and spending, which can help stimulate economic growth and job creation. Conversely, if the economy is overheating and inflation is a concern, the Fed might raise the federal funds rate to cool down economic activity and prevent excessive inflation.
Economic Conditions: Changes in the federal funds rate can affect overall economic conditions. Lowering the rate can potentially lead to increased borrowing, investment, and spending, which could contribute to job creation and, in turn, reduce the unemployment rate. Conversely, raising the rate can lead to reduced borrowing and spending, potentially impacting job creation and leading to changes in the unemployment rate.
In summary, the unemployment rate and the federal funds effective rate are distinct indicators that provide information about different aspects of the economy. While they are not directly correlated, they both play roles in shaping and reflecting the overall economic environment.
