SUN INTERNATIONAL Ltd (SUI)"JSE-listed hotel and resort group Sun International is anticipating that its Sun City resort will have one of its best years ever in terms of operating cash flow in the current financial year following the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic." - Moneyweb - 13 Oct 2022
Potential buy/long. Looking for confirmation via candle strong structure.
- Bullish ascending triangle formed on 1 Day Chart with higher lows and flat upper trendline.
- Price at lower boundary of support line.
Target 1 - R33.95
If we find a break above R33.95 and confirmed support Target 2 - R50.51
Growth
My Thoughts on Twilio's Crash - Dip Buy Time?Two years ago or so I was hanging with some traders around the New York Stock Exchange building in NYC. I was speaking to one trader who had been watching many SaaS & tech stocks breakout, climb higher, and higher, and while he appreciated the business models and articles he read, the move seemed to remind him of the Dotcom Bubble.
One company he spoke about was Twilio. He was not even sure what they did as a business. Most people I don't think even understand what companies like Twilio do. But he, he was insistent on it either being a short at some point or a stock to stay far away. The technicals did make sense. The euphoria for a company called "Twilio" just sounded like something in the Dotcom Bubble.
While I appreciate the sentiment, I did remember thinking: "Twilio does some $700+ million in revenue every 3 months" and also "The very text messages this trader receives whenever he logs into an app for two-factor auth is probably delivered by Twilio"
I did not buy any Twilio at the time, so I missed the run up, I also did not short any, so I missed the recent downmove. However, the conversation has stuck with me for a number of reasons. Let me explain:
1. Not everything is like the past. Yes, the age old "history doesn't repeat but it does rhyme" saying comes to mind. As does "this time is different" but the simple fact is that tech companies in the Dotcom bubble of 2000 were make $0 in revenue. Literally zero. Or maybe a few hundred thousand and trading at 1000x PS ratios or even no ratio at all because there was no revenue to begin with. No matter what someone says about Twilio, the company now generates nearly $1 billion in revenue every three months.
2. Reflecting on Twilio's recent crash, and this conversation that I have been thinking about, I must say that now seems like an interesting point in time whereby the old school traders, the ones who have been there and done that, seen the hype cycles, just may have outdone themselves with their level of pessimism. And so, while I don't have a position in Twilio, it is at the very top of my watchlist for a very fast rally.
3. Twilio's EV to revenue ratio, looking backward at the last 12 months, is 3.5. If you look forward to the next 12 months it is more like 2. And if you look forward 24 months, it is closer to one. Of course, that does imply a lot of growth, but you can look at Twilio's quarterly results to see the growth in this entire industry. I would also add that Twilio has 3x as much cash as debt on the balance sheet. $3 billion in cash to $1 billion in debt.
With that being said, I am not sure I fully understand the severe drop in Twilio. I see a lot of people talk about its inability to generate profit or tight margins. However, if a company is generating close to $1 billion in revenue every 3 months, I find it very unlikely that they are unable to turn on the switch, at any point, and start printing cash as needed.
Keep in mind that Twilio, like many companies in this space, deliver billions and billions of texts, emails, calls, and everything else every year. If they raise the price just by $0.005 yes, that's right, just a fraction of a penny, they would effectively almost double their entire revenue overnight. Twilio, for example, sends 130+ billion messages every year.
Anyways, that's it.
I've also marked some levels on the chart that I am looking at.
<<<<<<<<<<<BTC :still following upside price movements<<<<<Hello everyOne
I Have Tried My Best to Bring the best Possible outcome in this Chart.
By review BTC price chart's,
As we can see price made a Expanding pattern's by movement & correction(H&SH in down trends line)
We expect more hidden divergence bullish movements to reveal themselves in the next time.
But it's not necessary to happening,
We have at least 48H time to see this movement's.
All important resistance and support's zone (short term) marked on the chart.
This is not financial advise.
PLZ DYOR
With hopping success>>>>>>>>>>>>
How to Pick the next Winners? CAN-SLIMA successful trading strategy starts with sound stock selection criteria. Our JS-TechTrading strategy combines the timeless and success proven principles of Mark Minervini's SEPA (R) analysis and William O'Neils' CAN-SLIM (R) methodology.
This tutorial describes the CAN-SLIM (R) methodology in detail:
CAN-SLIM refers to the acronym developed by the American stock research and education company Investor's Business Daily (IBD). IBD claims CAN-SLIM represents the seven characteristics that top-performing stocks often share before making their biggest price gains. It was developed in the 1950s by Investor's Business Daily founder William O'Neil. The method was named the top-performing investment strategy from 1998-2009 by the American Association of Individual Investors.
CAN-SLIM is a growth stock investing strategy formulated from a study of stock market winners dating back to 1953 in the book How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System In Good Times or Bad. This strategy involves implementation of both technical analysis and fundamental analysis.
The objective of the strategy is to discover leading stocks before they make major price advances. These pre-advance periods are "buy points" for stocks as they emerge from price consolidation areas (or "bases"), most often in the form of a "cup-with-handle" chart pattern, of at least 7 weeks on weekly price charts.
The strategy is one that strongly encourages cutting all losses at no more than 7% or 8% below the buy point, with no exceptions, to minimize losses and to preserve gains. It is stated in the book, that buying stocks of solid companies should generally lessen chances of having to cut losses, since a strong company (good current quarterly earnings-per-share growth, annual growth rate, and other strong fundamentals) will usually shoot up—in bull markets—rather than descend. Some investors have criticized the strategy when they didn't use the stop-loss criterion; O'Neil has replied that you have to use the whole strategy and not just the parts you like.
O'Neil has stated that the CANSLIM strategy is not momentum investing, but that the system identifies companies with strong fundamentals—big sales and earnings increases which is a result of unique new products or services—and encourages buying their stock when they emerge from price consolidation periods (or "bases") and before they advance dramatically in price.
The seven parts of the acronym are as follows:
1. C stands for Current quarterly earnings. Per share, current earnings should be up at least 25% in the most recent financial quarter, compared to the same quarter the previous year. Additionally, if earnings are accelerating in recent quarters, this is a positive prognostic sign.
2. A stands for Annual earnings growth, which should be up 25% or more over the last three years. Annual returns on equity should be 17% or more
3. N stands for New product or service, which refers to the idea that a company should have continuing development and innovation. This is what allows the stock to emerge from a proper chart pattern and achieve a new price. A notable example of this is Apple's iPhone.
4. S stands for Supply and demand. A gauge of a stock's demand can be seen in the trading volume of the stock, particularly during price increases.
5. L stands for Leader or laggard? O'Neil suggests buying "the leading stock in a leading industry." This somewhat qualitative measurement can be more objectively measured by the Relative Price Strength Rating of the stock, designed to measure the price performance of a stock over the past 12 months in comparison to the rest of the market based on the S&P 500 (or the S&P/TSX Composite Index for Canadian stock listings) over a set period of time.
6. I stands for Institutional sponsorship, which refers to the ownership of the stock by mutual funds, banks and other large institutions, particularly in recent quarters. A quantitative measure here is the Accumulation/Distribution Rating, which is a gauge of institutional activity in a particular stock.
7. M stands for Market Direction, which is categorized into three - Market in Confirmed Uptrend, Market Uptrend Under Pressure, and Market in Correction. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are studied to determine the market direction. During the time of investment, O'Neil prefers investing during times of definite uptrends of these indexes, as three out of four stocks tend to follow the general market direction.
Uber - Showing signs of leader
Claimed VMA on 3D chart +++
Hanging below confluence of 200DMA and VMA. Any futher tightening at these levels would set this up perfectly for breakout. ++
volume shelf 30 is already tested. Above, 45 will come fast. Still early, but showing great strength over the last few months in a terrible market condition. Must watch for next few months.
US TOP-Stocks: Watchlist Update Nov2General Stock Market Update
Stock Market Fades Ahead Of Fed Decision
On the eve of a Fed decision and perhaps new guidance on interest rates, the stock market was cautious on Tuesday as expected.
The indexes closed lower after erasing early gains. The Nasdaq composite, which jumped 1.5% at the open, closed 0.9% lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed less than 0.3%. The Dow closed right at its 200-day moving average.
Small caps outperformed, as the Russell 2000 climbed 0.2% despite paring gains.
Volume fell on the Nasdaq and appeared to be lower on the NYSE. That suggests institutional investors moderated their selling. And, even with the Nasdaq's bad day, advancing stocks topped decliners by 9-7.
Stock Market Uptrend Holding Up So Far
From a broader perspective, the stock market has done little to damage its current uptrend. Confirmed with the Oct. 21 follow-through, the major indexes have kept distribution limited.
Leaders Outperform Stock Market
There was good action among leading issues and several names on our watchlist, despite the stock market's drop.
Wednesday afternoon's announcement on interest rates and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference will have the stock market's full attention. The indexes have bounced in recent weeks on hopes that, after this week's expected 75-basis-point hike, the Fed will tone down its tightening strategy.
Watchlist Update
All stocks on our watchlists meet the hard selection criteria according to Mark Minervini's Trend-Template and William o' Neil's CAN SLIM methodology. Hereis the link to the updated watchlist:
www.tradingview.com
***Buy Nasdaq hedged by S&P***NDX underperformance vs. SPX is becoming extreme here, last time (in June 2022 right after the OPEX Quadruple witching we bounced massively on it until mid July
This chart is the Weekly (log term) showing an intact uptrend right at the bottom of it here.
Bottom Line buy here NDX hedged in SPX you are being supported by L/T Moving average below. 200d-MA
Since SPX and NDX moves closer the Historical Volatility 8% (your risk) in entering the spread has a lower than the mrket currenlty at 27%.
THE FOSCHINI GROUP LIMITED (TFG)Foschini is testing the area of support again.
TFG recently released a robust trading update, with retail turnover growth of about 31%.
With Earnings to be released on the 11th of November we could see downward pressure step back and allow for Long trade back to September highs with a Target of R137.
Concerns: The Foschini Group lost 99,000 trading hours in the three months through September because of rolling blackout.
AMAZON long term support line, with pre covid boost accounted for, 101 ideal buying opportunity, with 85 as a possible swing Low, investment levels, not day trade, 35% - 80% upside 3 year projection when expected layoffs, cost cutting & lease of excessive ware house space have been implemented & benefits materialised.
Buy & Hold PalantirNYSE:PLTR
*This is a long term investment idea*
It's not a bad idea to start buying (& holding) Palantir down here.
With all the geopolitical tension in the world at the moment, the demand for their services should keep growing for the foreseeable future.
They have a stable stream of revenue from government contracts, along with a growing commercial business that should bolster their revenues.
Hence, their ever growing quarterly revenue numbers. (Screenshot below)
Technically speaking; momentum has been building bullish divergence for quite some time now.
At the moment, price is within the bottom range of the arcs, and has exited the yellow pitchfork without reaching it's median line. (Hagopian Gap)
I'm thinking that price should start climbing soon.
In the long term, I think price will eventually get back to the all time highs at $45.
Over the next few years, I'm thinking that a retracement to the 0.50 or 0.618 Fibonacci levels is likely. ($25 - $30)
I'm adding some PLTR to my retirement account this week.
I also plan to purchase some LEAPS in my trading account in three stages.
Positive Momentum Breakout
Weekly close above "Long-Confirmation A"
Weekly close above "Long-Confirmation B"
Fat_Fat
SPY sooner or later it will reverse trend$SPY - A Morning star is a visual pattern consisting of three candlesticks that are interpreted as bullish signs by technical analysts. A morning star forms following a downward trend and it indicates the start of an upward climb. Let's keep an eye out for the next one.
EUR/USD Weekend update🌐🟡EU leaders agree on joint gas purchases this news could negative effect on EUR from other side we have European Central Bank(ECB) news to investors preparing them to increase intrest rates according inflation growth 9.9%.
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🚦Main Scenario:When markets open in monday we have to wait price touch our SP line:97500 and confirm breakdown and we can short on EUR.
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🚥ALternative Scenario:If Bulls power pressure to price maybe breakout our RS line:98770 wait for confirmation to take long.
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💚
SE ~ Lower Lows incoming? Buying Opp incoming?SE, Sea Limited has been suffering massive losses ever since its peak in the fall of 2021. This massive bull run was led with the Tech & Growth Stock boom that's bubble has recently bursted through out the current Bear Market of 2022!
Sea Limited owns multiple varieties of Business in the South-Eastern Asia Region. Businesses Like :
Shopee - Ecommerce Giant
Garena - Gaming + Esports
& Much more smaller companies
Sea Limited has grown a massive amount of revenue, but has most definitely struggled with its debt and spending to make a profit.
Nonetheless, let's get to Technicals!
SE has suffered such huge losses, many wonder where is the bottom!?
My thesis for this Stock is a short / mid term short position, followed by long term accumilation.
Short : SE has 2 major gaps to still be filled from back before COVID, and the gigantic Rally that took place on SE. I see huge potential for this company's future growth, but I think more downside is to come to give SE fair value.
Along with fair value, and these gaps SE has been unable to reclaim any weekly moving averages, and the TTM_SQUEEZE Momentum Indicator shows more bearish momentum coming.
The monthly chart will get to the point of being oversold, probably near these gap fills. At these gap fill areas, and the way down would be a proper time imo to be covering short positions.
The market also seems to have some more pain ahead, and interest rates will only hurt this company and the markets more, driving the stock down fundamentally.
Long : I do believe in this company's long term outlook and performance. I do think that this will take a while to turn around... But if these gaps get filled, the Risk/Reward on SE will be favorable if the company has only grown. I am going to be extremely patient on SE but will be ready to hunt the discount if these gaps do become filled. I Will also keep my eye on the TTM_Squeeze on the MONTHLY chart, as the Monthly chart has been getting extreme momentum to the bearish side, and will look extremely oversold in the coming months with more downside.
Thesis : Short to Gaps ; Long @ Gap Fills