COSTCO - Time to break above and beyond the All time HighHi guys , today we are going to overview one of the retail giants COSTCO.
Fundamentals :
Revenue Growth and Profitability :
Consistent Revenue Growth: Costco has demonstrated steady revenue growth, driven by an expanding membership base, increased same-store sales, and international expansion.
Profit Margins: While Costco operates with low gross margins due to its focus on low pricing, its operating margins benefit significantly from recurring membership income. This structure ensures financial stability even in competitive environments.
Financial Health:
Balance Sheet Strength: Costco has a strong balance sheet with manageable debt levels and ample liquidity. Its ability to generate robust free cash flow supports both operations and shareholder returns.
Dividend Growth: Costco pays a reliable dividend, which has seen consistent growth over the years. Additionally, the company occasionally issues special dividends, highlighting its commitment to returning value to shareholders
Valuation Metrics:
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Costco often trades at a premium valuation compared to peers due to its consistent performance and strong brand equity.
Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: Reflecting its robust revenue generation capabilities, Costco’s P/S ratio is higher than the retail industry average but supported by predictable growth.
And some potential risks : Thin Margins: Costco’s low-margin strategy leaves little room for error, and rising costs (e.g., labor, logistics) could pressure profitability.
Economic Sensitivity: While generally resilient, Costco could face challenges if economic conditions significantly impact discretionary spending or if competition intensifies.
Foreign Exchange Risk: With international operations, Costco is exposed to currency fluctuations that could affect earnings.
Technical analysis : The company has been running on a very healthy uptrend throughought 2024 and has had 4 green earning seasons which gives a positive bullish trend conversion,with analysists focusing on another green earnings in their Q4 report this gives us the necessary confirmations for a up-trend:
Entry has been made at : 921
Target will be above the ATH : 1030
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
Growth
Brief overview ahead of the $AMD earningsToday's NASDAQ:AMD earnings report, due after market close, promises to be intriguing
Historically, the movement after earnings over the last 10 years has averaged around +/-10.2%
Theoretically, NASDAQ:AMD could significantly benefit from the DeepSeek news, given that AMD has integrated the advanced DeepSeek-V3 model into its Instinct MI300X GPUs. However, this development has not yet been reflected in AMD's stock price
A drop in the stock price post-earnings could set up an interesting scenario. The bullish order block between $93-$102 on Chart 1 might offer a prime entry point for a bounce-back
Over the past five years, NASDAQ:AMD 's fundamental ratios shown in Chart 2 have generally looked solid. However, the current P/S ratio of 7.7 could ideally decrease a bit for better valuation
It's also worth noting that other chip stocks like NASDAQ:ASML and $RLCX saw positive movements post-earnings last week, though this doesn't guarantee a similar outcome for NASDAQ:AMD
ARM - Great AI, Great Financials,formulating Ascending ChannelHi guys we would be looking into ARM Holdings - some fundamentals below
Arm Holdings plc (ARM) has demonstrated impressive financial performance, driven by its strategic positioning in the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence (AI) sector. The company's energy-efficient chip designs have become integral to AI applications, leading to significant revenue growth and increased market valuation.
In the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, Arm reported a 47% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $928 million for the fourth quarter. This surge was primarily due to record-high royalty revenues, with the latest Armv9 technology contributing around 20% of these royalties.
Analysts have recognized Arm's strong market position. Raymond James initiated coverage with an "overweight" rating and a price target of $160, citing Arm's significant role in generative AI and its robust ecosystem.
Similarly, Wells Fargo set a price target of $155, highlighting the transition to Arm's latest technology as a key revenue driver.
Arm's inclusion in the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index reflects its growing prominence in the semiconductor industry. The company's American depositary receipts have surged approximately 150% since its Nasdaq debut, underscoring investor confidence in its growth trajectory.
Overall, Arm's strategic focus on AI and its innovative chip designs have positioned the company for sustained financial success, making it an attractive consideration for investors seeking exposure to the burgeoning AI market.
Technicals - We have formulated a great Ascending Channel, which is looking to capitalize on great earnings which is due to tomorrow -
Entry: 155
Target: 180 - The Target is just below the strong resistance level which is around 190 mark.
Eternal PainWill Virgin Galactic ever provide share holders with anything but pain?
The board is no help as they continue to issue more shares. However; there is a potential bright future.
Currently the equity value of the company is lower than the liquidation value of the firm. The enormous cash burn is slowing as most of the capex necessary for flights is ready to go. Given their booking backlog, once they start a solid rhythm a lot of cash is going to be generated.
Look at their most recent investor presentation. With conservative estimates when (if) regular flights begin one spaceport will generate $500m per annum in EBIT [ ] With profits and any sort of multiple on earnings the future could be galactic.
My hopium induced reason for owning this since $5.90 is one day in the next 3-5 years this could be a legitimate 100+ bagger. Space is the ultimate growth arena and with SpaceX focused on mars and industrial matters, Blue Origin no where to be found, the moat is large and the industry is wide open.
META - Now this is just strangeThis is just my opinion here, but I think META will soon reverse course. Notwithstanding the analyst upgrades, right now to an average of 757.98, the way it accelerated on the upwards trend (~20%) over the past ~5 weeks just seems suspicious. Scratching the surface to see what the company is up to, there seem to be quite interesting developments. For example:
At Facebook they briefly tried to use AI generated fake accounts. Strange why would anyone think that would be good idea, considering the already many fake/bot profiles. I believe this was a move to combat the fact that the market share reached saturation, there aren't that many *real* people creating new accounts.
Even though Zuckerberg "bent the knee" at the US president's inauguration and settled the lawsuit for unfairly banning Trump back in 2021 for $22 M, I still think what Meta did is going to have repercussions. Even though the first amendment right of free speech "does not apply to private companies", it is still discrimination, and I bet some people will take advantage of Trump's win. As the precedent has been set, they could now be hit by other similar lawsuits from other people being banned quite subjectively, suppressing their right to free speech.
Thirdly, checking the uninformative insider transactions, the sell volumes are hard to believe. If price is expected to indeed reach $750, why would Zuckerberg sell, only in January 2025, $366 million worth of shares? (probably peanut money for Zuck, but still, more than a quarter billion is not really "money that jingles"). There were no insider buying since the 19th of November 2024, when the price was 550 per share.
Their metaverse was a costly bet which, at least for the next year or two, seems that will not pay off. I'm saying this solely on the fact the more than 83% of users are below 18 years old, therefore have very little buying power (also 51% of users are below 13 years of age). On the VR space they focused too much on the software, and their hardware is now clearly behind Sony/HTC Vive (and truth be told, the software is really not that impressive either).
Lastly, based on what has happened over the past few years, and how Meta quickly changes their tune, most likely they will receive increased scrutiny both in the US and abroad for their monopolistic behavior and content moderation policies.
All in all, Meta is currently still a tech giant, but I believe right now it's a risky investment. At the time of writing 700 was shortly surpassed again, nevertheless, I think a 600 is a more realistic bet for the next 4 months (end of april 2025). If it were to reach a more realistic valuation of around 420, that would be a buy price for me.
I'm not saying short it, I guess I *am* saying that it's probably not a good idea to buy more... I'm also saying to me it's a bit strange (and maybe I don't have all the pieces of the puzzle, so any comments/feedback would be appreciated). Either way, this is just my opinion on the stock, don't take this as financial advice, but more as entertainment.
All the best and Good Luck!
Alex
TARIFFS Will Lead To Inflation!? NOPE!So many talking heads crying TARIFFS will be inflationary,
but it’s mostly uneducated fear-mongering.
Let’s look at the cold, hard USIRYY and CPI data to figure out the truth behind this.
From March 2018 through September 2019, President Trump had eight waves of tariff announcements on C-H-I-N-A, plus some steel and aluminum ones on Mexico and Canada.
In order to combat these inflation worries, Trump did what he said he was going to do…
DRILL BABY DRILL.
For the first time since 1949, the US would be a net exporter of oil.
We can see there was a quick spike in inflation from stockpiling imports before tariffs were fully implemented, but inflation quickly plummeted nearly in half as the US became a net exporter.
Fast-forward to today, and coincidentally inflation is at 2.9% which is right around where it was when Trump imposed the tariffs during his last presidency. Funny how that works out, eh ;)
Trump has declared the US will DRILL BABY DRILL bigger than ever, which should lead us to believe that this time is NOT different and inflation will go down again.
XRP/USD: Bullish Continuation from Falling Wedge Formation Description:
Current Setup:
I am still holding my trade on XRP/USD, targeting 3.3901. The pair is currently consolidating within a wedge-like structure, a classic falling wedge. This pattern often signals a continuation of the prevailing bullish trend.
Why Bullish Bias?
1. Liquidity Grab: Price swept multiple lows during this consolidation phase, confirming liquidity inducement.
2. Trend Continuation: Higher timeframe analysis aligns with bullish intent, and this wedge structure adds confluence for a push toward my TP.
3. Institutional Order Block: Price perfectly tapped into the 4H institutional order block, validating my entry point at 2.8887.
Expectations:
As the consolidation narrows, I anticipate a breakout to the upside, driving price toward my target. I’ll be monitoring how price reacts near the wedge breakout for confirmation of momentum.
Key Levels:
• Entry: 2.8887
• TP: 3.3901
• SL: 2.6529
What’s Next?
If price maintains bullish momentum after breaking the wedge, it could signal additional opportunities for continuation trades. Stay tuned as I update progress on this trade!
Bless trading!
2025 for Sazgar (My Own Sentiment)2025 may be a Cyclical year for stock selection. Fundamentals are very strong.
as an investor the buying should be as soon as now. Then stick to the technicals and buy more at February End or if the price goes down around 905 .
another buy position will be between 660 - 513 .
It can reach till 1700 - 2000 level at the end of year 2025 ( subject to controlled interest rates ).
SnapChat | SNAP | Long at $11.55NYSE:SNAP - all depends on growth...
While I view this stock as risky into earnings (price gaps on the daily down to the $6.00 range...), SnapChat is still a highly relevant application among youth and is targeting older groups. The valuable data this company has must be staggering. NYSE:SNAP went from revenues of $1.7 billion in fiscal year 2019 to $5.1 through Q3 of 2024. While it is currently operating at a loss per share of -$0.58, the company is expected to return a positive EPS by 2027. Insider selling is currently high, however, and I truly would not be surprised if the stock dipped to fill the gaps (at least into the $8 zone). Regardless, my historical simple moving average lines are starting to flatten out and a change in course for 2025-2026 may be in its future - just stay cautious if the price dips to shake out weak hands.
At $11.55, NYSE:SNAP is in a personal buy zone with room for additional entries if weakness is ahead after earnings.
Targets:
$14.30
$17.00
$21.00
COCOA - We had a good drop, but demand is still high,so we go upHi guys, recently had a rollecoaster with Cocoa , but eventually the price went back and stabilized, now I am coming back to it hence , I see that there has been an ascending channel formulated. The overall technical overview is that the asset is indeed overbought, but at this current stage the fundamentals are out-weighting the technicals, bringing up the prices.
From a fundamental perspective, currently for yet another year we have had weather problems which causes the nearby crop of Cocoa in the Ivory coast which is the biggest exporter will be limited in spring as analysts are predicting. Additionally the weather circumstances have lead to an almost two year hiatus where we have problems with the supply of Cocoa, while the demand remains to be high.
‘Like coffee, chocolate is one of those things consumers are reluctant to give up. Poster items for inelastic demand.’
Entry: 11,203
Target 1: 12,404
Target 2: 13,036
Target 3: 14,026
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
Investment Opportunity - Steelcast LimitedSteelcast Limited, established in 1960, has emerged as a prominent player in the global steel casting industry. With its headquarters and manufacturing facility located in Bhavnagar, Gujarat, Steelcast specializes in producing high-quality steel and alloy castings for various sectors, including mining, construction, and transportation. The company has positioned itself as a key participant in the "Make in India" initiative, focusing on both domestic and international markets.
Financial Ratios
As of the latest financial report for FY 2023-24, Steelcast has demonstrated robust financial health:
Revenue: ₹412.51 Crore, reflecting a slight decline of 13.82% from the previous year.
Profit After Tax (PAT): ₹75.00 Crore, indicating a growth of 6.35% year-over-year.
EBITDA: ₹119.88 Crore, showcasing a growth of 3.53% compared to the prior year.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Near zero, highlighting a strong balance sheet with minimal debt exposure.
Return on Equity (ROE): Approximately 30.8%, indicating efficient use of shareholder funds.
These ratios suggest that Steelcast is financially stable and capable of generating profits while maintaining a low debt profile.
Future Projects
Steelcast is poised to capitalize on the increasing demand for infrastructure development globally. The company plans to expand its manufacturing capabilities and diversify its product offerings to cater to emerging markets and industries. This strategy aligns with the global trend of increasing infrastructure spending as economies recover from downturns.
Investment Strategy
Investors looking to capitalize on Steelcast's potential should consider the following strategies:
Long-Term Holding: Given Steelcast's strong fundamentals and growth trajectory, a long-term investment approach may yield significant returns as the company continues to expand its market presence.
Value Investing: With its low debt levels and consistent profit growth, Steelcast presents an attractive opportunity for value investors seeking stable companies with solid financial metrics.
Dividend Reinvestment: Although the current dividend yield is modest at 0.83%, reinvesting dividends can enhance total returns over time.
Industry Trends
The steel casting industry is witnessing a resurgence due to increased infrastructure spending worldwide. As countries focus on rebuilding and modernizing their infrastructure, demand for high-quality castings is expected to rise significantly. Additionally, with India's strategic positioning as a manufacturing hub, Steelcast stands to benefit from both domestic and international orders.
Technical Analysis
As of January 29, 2025:
Current Price: ₹855
Volume Trends: There has been a notable increase in trading volume today, indicating heightened investor interest and potential upward momentum in the stock price.
This technical movement suggests that investors may be responding positively to recent developments or overall market conditions favoring Steelcast.
Disclaimer
This blog post contains forward-looking statements regarding Steelcast Limited's future performance and market position. These statements are based on current expectations and involve inherent risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Readers are advised not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements and should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
DeepSeek AI | TechStocks Crash | NVIDIA down -17%On Monday (yesterday), Wall Street reacted wildly with the release of Chinese AI app DeepSeek.
Throughout the day, roughly 1 Trillion US Dollars was wiped from the stock market, largely from chip and tech stocks suck as Nvidia which caused a larger sell-off.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman called it an "impressive model" and POTUS Donald Trump said that it should be a "wakeup call for our industries".
The bright side of this, is that there can be some excellent entry points found across the market after the sell-off.
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NASDAQ:NVDA
XOM - preparation for great earnings!Hi guys we would be looking at XOM, just before their earnings! Let's take a look into the fundamentals
Robust Financial Performance
Exxon Mobil has demonstrated resilience with consistent earnings growth and strong cash flow generation, even amidst fluctuating energy prices. The company’s disciplined capital allocation strategy and cost-management initiatives have positioned it well to maximize shareholder returns.
Dividend Stability and Yield
XOM remains a top choice for income-focused investors, maintaining its status as a Dividend Aristocrat. The company’s strong dividend history reflects its commitment to rewarding shareholders, which further enhances investor confidence.
Favorable Market Conditions
Global energy demand remains on an upward trajectory, fueled by economic recovery and industrial activity. Exxon Mobil's diversified portfolio across oil, natural gas, and chemical sectors allows it to capitalize on these trends, while its focus on high-margin projects strengthens profitability.
Strategic Investments in Growth
Exxon Mobil’s ongoing investments in key growth areas, such as Guyana's offshore assets, low-carbon technologies, and LNG production, position it for long-term growth. These projects are expected to generate substantial returns and bolster the company’s competitive edge in the energy sector.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
Many analysts have revised their price targets for XOM upwards, citing its strong fundamentals, operational efficiency, and capacity to adapt to evolving energy trends. This bullish sentiment reflects the broader market's optimism regarding Exxon Mobil's prospects.
Energy Transition Opportunities
While maintaining its core oil and gas operations, Exxon Mobil has also been actively investing in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies and other low-emission energy solutions. These initiatives align with global sustainability goals and offer new revenue streams for the company.
Technicals are written on the chart we are sitting on the upper support block which gives us an indication that we would move into the resistance level which is where our target is going to be situated
Entry: 110
Target: 123.50
Nice and simple Breakout on high relative strengthFTDR is a pattern breakout .
Even with the S&P falling more sharply and the NASDAQ rallying, FTDR is able to breakout from a base today on good, rising volume. A breakout under these market conditions shows high relative strength.
The fundamentals also look good. EPS increased significantly by almost 50% in each of the last four quarters.
The homebuilding sector has been stronger in recent months, although the Fed's decisions this week may have a greater impact here.
True leader! I'll buy it.
Agilon Health | AGL | Long at $2.24Agilon Health NYSE:AGL
Pros:
Revenue consistently grew from 2019 ($794 million) to 2023 ($4.3 billion) and through three quarters of 2024 ($5.6 billion). Expected to reach $8.7 billion by 2027.
Current debt-to-equity ratio 0.06 (very low)
Sufficient cash reserves to fund operations and strategic initiatives
Strong membership growth (525,000 as of Q3 2024, a 37% year-over-year increase)
Recent insider buying ($2 - $3) and awarding of options
Cons:
Rising medical costs - currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years
No dividend
Targets (into 2027):
$2.72
$4.00
$5.00
$7.00
$11.50
$16.00
TRUMP | Donald Trump signs RADICAL Crypto Executive OrderPOTUS Donald Trump has issued an executive order aimed at creating a streamlined regulatory framework for digital assets, with a focus on cryptocurrencies.
One of the key elements of the order is the creation of a National Digital Asset Stockpile. This initiative is intended to establish a strategic reserve of digital assets to enhance economic security and encourage innovation in the sector. Additionally, the order calls for the formation of a specialized working group to develop a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, including stablecoins. This group will be led by David Sacks, the White House's AI and Crypto Czar, and will include senior officials from the Treasury, the U.S. SEC, and other key agencies.
Notably, the executive order explicitly bans federal agencies from initiating or supporting the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), maintaining a focus on decentralized cryptocurrencies. The creation of the Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets is expected to significantly influence the future of cryptocurrencies, NFTs, stablecoins, and other blockchain technologies.
The order also reverses previous directives from the prior administration that hindered innovation in digital assets. These outdated frameworks had prompted many U.S.-based crypto companies to relocate to more favorable jurisdictions, such as the UAE or Singapore.
President Trump's recent executive order is likely to have significant effects on both Bitcoin and Trumpcoin.
Bitcoin:
This pro-crypto stance including the establishment of a National Digital Asset Stockpile and the creation of a federal regulatory framework, could encourage investor confidence in Bitcoin. This supportive regulatory environment may lead to increased institutional adoption and public trust, potentially driving Bitcoin's price higher. However, the market's reaction has been mixed and we're not seeing an immediate result reflecting in the price just yet.
Trumpcoin:
Trumpcoin could experience heightened interest due to the executive order. The administration's favorable view on digital assets might attract investors to Trumpcoin, anticipating that it will benefit from increased visibility and potential use cases.
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BINANCE:TRUMPUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDT
#XRP Now Is A Great Time!Is there was ever a time to purchase XRP for long-term holdings, now is the time. I could go into details on the one hundred + reasons why I am saying this and I will in future posts, but the drop that we are seeing today is some major whales taking out over-leveraged retail traders.
2025-26 will be quite a ride with #XRP. Stay tune as I begin to share with you the one hundred + reasons why XRP is a good great strategic investment. By the way, some excellent profits can be made SWING trading this crypto also.
ASIAN PAINT TO PAINT YOUR PORTFOLIO GREEN GREEN!!!!!!!Asian Paints is a prominent player in the Indian paint industry, known for its strong market presence and consistent financial performance. As of January 24, 2025, the stock is trading at ₹2,261.80, which is approximately 33% below its 52-week high of ₹3,394.00 reached on September 16, 2024.
Over the past three years, the stock has underperformed, declining by about 20%, while the benchmark index rose by nearly 40% in the same period. However, over a ten-year horizon, Asian Paints has delivered a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13%, slightly outperforming the benchmark's 11% CAGR.
The company's trailing twelve-month (TTM) price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 69.86, significantly higher than the sector average of 19.44, indicating a premium valuation.
Analyst opinions are mixed: out of 34 analysts, 2 have issued a strong buy rating, 6 recommend a buy, 10 suggest holding, and 11 advise selling the stock.
In the last quarter, Asian Paints reported a net profit of ₹694.64 crores. The company maintains a healthy financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00, indicating no significant debt burden.
LITM a lithium penny stock gets momentum LONGLITM is a lithium mining company with operations is Western USA and Canada now getting a
lift as lithium prices are rising. It popped 16% today and hit a screener on volume yesterday.
This is a junior miner compared with LAC and SGML. As such it is more reactive to price. All
indicators confirm the move including the extent of the trend, relative volume spiking and the
RS lines. This is a low float low volume stock.
Accumulation of a low float could precipitate more price action upward quite easily.
As a volatile penny stock LITM is risky. Right now, I see a long trade in a
small position ( < 0.001 of account balance) for the potential gain despite the obvious risk
SL at 10% Targets at 10% 20% (red line pivots to the left-1.2o December to Feb) then 70% (
pivot low March 23) and finally 250% for the runners ( January and July 23 high pivots). Time
will tell. I expect great profit in this swing trade with stratified partial profits and less time
effort in the trend using alerts and notifications. A trailing loss will be employed at 10%
once the trade is over 20% profit.
Expensive Going into EarningsA lot of Tesla's future earnings potential is already priced into the stock, particularly with pre-revenue products like Optimus and Robo-taxis. This has led to an expensive stock heading into earnings, with both the P/E and P/S ratios higher than historical averages. While it's true that these ratios aren't at all-time highs, the current PEG ratio raises some concerns. Back in 2022, Tesla's revenue and earnings growth were higher, justifying a higher P/E and P/S multiple. However, with growth now flat year-over-year, the market cap seems to be reflecting expectations of significant future earnings growth beyond the next year or two. One possible reason for this could be Trump's return to office might speed up the rollout of Robo-taxi revenue. Still, this leaves less room for error, and any delay or misstep in achieving the next phase of revenue and earnings growth could put pressure on the stock, especially as Tesla continues to rely on growing its EV sales cash flow engine.