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Alpha Group - What next post-earnings and CEO sucession plan?My take on Alpha Group: Alpha Group LSE:ALPH leads, in my view, as the UK's best FXRM firm, and institutional lending provider. What most lenders don't do is take a mixed approach - both expertise and technology when developing and implementing their services. From a macro perspective, Alpha Group provide stronger growth prospects than peers, as well as higher margins. They are continuously making large investments into their infrastructure, expanding their already strong platform. Analysts ests. momentum continues to be strong, due to the cheap valuation (despite the inflated NII). The acquisition of Cobase had provided an additional vector of growth for the company, and will continue to do so into the future. Presently, and historically, Alpha Group have always displayed a super solid balance sheet, indicating mgmt. are in control. Buybacks are continuous, with £20m now completed in this year alone, leaving them with a huge cash position, over £180m. And, as we all know by know, interest rates are dropping globally! Slowly, but surely, we will come down to a more modest cost of borrowing, and Alpha Group are a major beneficiary of this. 4th September 2024 - 1H24 results • Total income up 19% yoy to £107m. Revenues at £64m, a 16% yoy rise. 1H underlying EBITDA @ £25.3m (39.4% margin), surpassing PH’s estimate of £23.3m. • Additionally, an increase in net client additions and revenue per client. Corporate FXRM client base grew by 9% yoy, and institutional FX client numbers rose 11% yoy. • Cash up again! Now sitting on £180m at the end of the first half. Buyback on track, now with £20m completed. • As at 04/09, trading at approx. 6x ‘25e EV/EBITDA and an 8% FCF yield, still suggesting good valuation for buying. 10th September 2024 - CEO Transition & Succession - Alpha Group announced today that Morgan Tillbrook, CEO, has decided to step down from his duties at the company. - He will continue his role up until the end of the calendar year, where he will then be succeeded by Clive Khan. - Clive is currently Chairman at Alpha Group and is also the CEO of takepayments. takepayments was recently acquired by Global Payments NYSE:GPN , which I believe provides perfect timing for Clive to step down as CEO and step up for the role at Alpha Group. - With over 30 years in the FX and payments industry, there's no real better option than Clive, as his philosophy is almost identical to Morgan's. - He transformed takepayments from a failing bill payments business into one of the leading card acceptance businesses in the UK. As for Morgan, he too has a history of angel investing. - I anticipated a potential move for Morgan, as his long history of angel investing gave me a "heads up" to his absence. - At the open on the 10th, the markets felt disappointed and surprised, causing the stock to drop c.10% on the day. - However, Morgan made absolutely clear in his formal announcement that he will be leaving the business primed for further exponential growth and equipped with a robust business model. He emphasised that Alpha Group cannot be left in better hands than Clive, and I believe there is no reason to expect a rough transition in the step-up for him.
LSE:ALPHLong
by FytaLO
BYD - What next post-earnings and the BoC's stimulus?HKEX:1211 has had a strong year in growth prospects, reporting solid earnings growth thanks to its robust EV sales and expanding footprint in international markets. The recent earnings beat highlighted an impressive increase in revenue, driven by the demand for both their electric and hybrid vehicles. But what we can notice is that the stock has only reflected this as a c.16% rise in price YTD. However, the question now is: where does BYD go from here? - More recently, the BoC's latest stimulus measures, including rate cuts and support for the real estate sector, could indirectly benefit BYD. With increased liquidity and consumer confidence, domestic demand for EV's could rise, especially if coupled with additional green energy incentives. - As for the earnings release, the markets reacted well, and with this new-found optimism in the markets, with both the SEE Composite Index SSE:000001 and the Hang Seng Index TVC:HSI up 5.78% and 9.28% in the past 5 days, is this the turn-around for China as a whole?
HKEX:1211Long
by FytaLO
1
Long term $180-$190 target. More downside likely short term.I think short term we can see a final push down. Company has way to much in OP EX and once it can figure out how to remove/cut the amount in half, this stock will show to investors that it has a plan for long term profitable growth. Question is, which earnings report will it be and/or will they release news on lay offs once unemployment really spikes. BUY THIS STOCK IN MY PINK ZONE AND HOLD 2-5 YEARS. my main concern right now is AI hype flushing down and/or there cash on hand and free cash flow continues on its down trend...
NYSE:SNOWLong
by LeapTrades
BEARISH PLOTTER READER! (2HR TF)Good Day Traders I wanted to use a higher timeframe, but the two-hour timeframe was more convenient because my bearish plotter is pointing out only the two-hour timeframe from all timeframes. This lets me know BITCOIN will make its way down for a minor trend. I've done some price range measuring. I have two custom gaps left out in the open from all three measurements. This can only work with my bearish plotter. Two red long rectangles are the left opened gaps which price can potentially hit those targets. The green gap is genuine. I drew a parallel trend line starting point from the top of the wick to the last bottom candle wick. I've measured the longest trendline and cloned it which is the most recent white parallel trendline. BITCOIN is behaving as if it wants to keep pushing up. There's no way of telling. It's pushed up in the past on a daily timeframe regardless of stochastic RSI was overbought but don't count on it. Pay attention to the most recent candlestick. The candlestick has almost filled the green gap which my custom MA has predicted an uptrend moving forward but it is just guidance. MY ADR MA, please follow it and see the way it plays out. Summary: Does this mean the price can fall to those 4 prices, it's a possibility, but so far it's touched the most recent green gap. Based on a 2-hour volume, it all makes sense. We have three levels of the highest volume. This is only a two-hour timeframe, it's just guidance by using a strategy. I had to create my own gaps. As I created them; WALA!, look at the first red gap let's see how it plays out, so don't panic. We're in a 3-YEAR BULL RUN.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by The_ForexX_Mindset
11
Polkadot / DOT ( Hot or Not? )The price of DOT is $7.5 today with a 24hour trading volume of 777 million dollars. This represents a 2% price increase in the last 24 hours and a 22.00% price increase in the past 7 days Polkadot is a platform that allows diverse blockchains to transfer messages, including value, in a trust free fashion; sharing their unique features while pooling their security. In brief, Polkadot is a scalable heterogeneous multi chain technology made by Gavin Wood, Robert Habermeier and Peter Czaban. but is it hot or not? 4.5$ for Dot is a Dip and the next targets are 7.5, 7.9 and 8.3$. the next big resistance for Dot is 8.5$
Long
by moonypto
18
Palantir (PLTR) – Correction Time?Palantir ( NYSE:PLTR ) is completing a cup-and-handle pattern and is now pushing toward its all-time high of $45. However, with the RSI running hot and the 150-day moving average well below current levels, the stock looks overextended . Historically, Palantir tends to see a pullback before earnings, which could present an opportunity for a better entry point . A gap has formed below, and I expect a potential pullback to the newly created support zone at $29.50 . I believe Palantir is a strong long-term hold, but I'll be watching closely for a correction to enter around $29.51-$31.80. Do you think Palantir will continue its run to the all-time high, or will the pullback before earnings provide a better entry? How do you see the gap closure playing into the stock's momentum?
PLong
by elka_graph
15
Touchdown Trade: PENN Entertainment Ready to Score Big at $36.90PENN Entertainment is showing strong bullish momentum, positioning the stock to push toward the critical resistance level of $36.90. With an attractive risk-to-reward ratio of 8.31 , this setup presents an excellent entry point for traders and investors looking to capitalize on its upward trajectory. The stock is gaining further momentum as football season kicks off, historically driving increased user engagement and betting activity on PENN’s platform, particularly through Barstool Sportsbook. As the company benefits from seasonal spikes in sports betting, this momentum could propel the stock toward its next major resistance. In addition to short-term seasonal tailwinds, PENN’s long-term fundamentals remain solid. The company continues to expand its sports betting and iGaming offerings across the U.S., benefiting from broader legalization efforts. Strategic partnerships and a focus on digital growth further enhance its competitive edge in the gaming industry. With strong bullish momentum and an 8.31 risk-to-reward ratio, now is an optimal time to enter the stock and ride the momentum toward the $36.90 target. NASDAQ:PENN
NASDAQ:PENNLong
by The_Trading_Mechanic
1
Short AMD via optionsWhat I did: Long Oct 4 vertical 145/135 AMD put spread @ 2.06, as a swing trade. The rationale: NASDAQ:AMD seems to struggle with the 3-month VWMA (white line), while in the context of a declining 3-month and 1-month trend. Fundamentally, AMD competes with NASDAQ:INTC on CPUs and with NASDAQ:NVDA on graphics cards. Of the three, NVDA is the most profitable by far, with a 10-yr median FCF margin of 27.5% (INTC 19.3%, AMD 2.1%). In terms of 10-yr revenue CAGR, NVDA is also the most compelling with 30.9% (INTC 0.3% ,AMD 15.6%). Despite this, AMD does not offer a significant valuation discount relative to NVDA. AMD's next-twelve-month estimated PE multiple is 35, just as NVDA's. And in terms of forward EV/EBITDA, AMD is currently currently MORE expensive, with a 33.1 multiple vs. 29.4 for NVDA. INTC is at this point unprofitable, and at best a turnaround candidate, so I am excluding it from further consideration. I do understand that NVDA's large exposure to the AI infrastructure build-out presents unique downside potential once that wave will have run its course. But a temporary benefit is still preferable to no benefit at all, so I think as long as NVDA grows faster and operates more profitably than AMD, its valuation multiples should present an upper bound to AMD's. In other words, unless NVDA can progress to new highs, I don't see AMD going up. And, as we have seen today, NVDA is struggling to recapture its past highs. I believe that AMD is susceptible here to significant volatility from its association to NVDA. A full reversal of trailing 10-day swing back towards 133+/- seems quite possible, especially since I see the market anticipate a lot of good news from inflation/Fed direction. While I do believe that the Fed will come through with a 50bp cut on Wednesday, I think that cut will be justified with a long discussion of poor recent economic data, casting doubt on the feasibility of a "soft landing". My trade is simply a swing with the intent of hedging some of my long exposures. But it also exists in a larger context: For the last couple of years the argument has been made that semiconductors are no longer cyclical stocks, but rather idiosyncratic growth machines, like software. If that narrative gets challenged by reality, then I think AMD has a long way down. Its current multiples are one third above trough valuations, and if analysts were to revise down their estimates, then the downside grows in proportion.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by matthias
4
Bitcoin Cycles: Predicted Highs and Lows for 2025-2026 In this post, we will explore the Bitcoin market cycle in an effort to predict when the next cycle's top and bottom might occur, along with their potential price levels. Our analysis will cover several key concepts, including the Four-Year Cycle Theory, peak-to-peak and bottom-to-bottom analysis, cycle timing (peak-to-bottom), and the idea of diminishing returns, to support our forecast. Lets go! The Four-Year Cycle Theory: The Four-Year Cycle Theory in Bitcoin refers to a recurring market cycle that aligns with the Bitcoin halving event, which occurs approximately every four years. It suggests that Bitcoin's price moves in predictable cycles, driven largely by the dynamics of supply and demand, with the halving event acting as a significant catalyst. The theory suggests that each four-year cycle consists of four distinct phases: a. Accumulation (Bear Market Bottom) b. Uptrend (Bull Market Start) c. Parabolic Rise (Bull Market Peak) d. Correction (Bear Market Crash) The halving significantly reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is mined, which leads to a supply reduction. As supply decreases while demand stays the same or increases (due to growing adoption, media attention, etc.), the price often rises after the halving leading to phase c. the Parabolic Rise. With the basics of the Four-Year Cycle Theory covered, we can now analyze the intervals between cycle peaks and bottoms. Cycle interval analysis: A cycle analysis aims to identify recurring patterns by analyzing the time and price movements between key events, such as market tops (peaks) and bottoms, in the case of Bitcoin the halving event may also be considered. By examining these cyclical behaviors it is attempted to predict future tops and bottoms. The simplest and easiest-to-understand patterns are: 1. Top-to-Top The time difference between consecutive market tops 2. Top-to-Bottom The time difference between a market top to the next market bottom. 3. Bottom-to-Top The time difference between a market bottom to the next market top. 4. Bottom-to-Bottom The time difference between consecutive market bottoms. There are however also more advanced patterns such as: 5. All-Time-High Break to Top The time difference between a break of the last cycle top to the next market top. 6. Halving event to top The time difference between the halving event to the next market top. It can be observed that market cycle patterns in the 2nd cycle are shorter compared to those in the 3rd and 4th cycles. This is likely due to a lack of market maturation or the fact that it occurs before the first halving. What stands out is the similarity between the 3rd and 4th cycle patterns. By averaging these cycles, we can predict the 5th cycle. Even more striking is that several of these predictions closely match the subsequent cycle top AND bottom. The predicted upcoming market cycle top is predicted as follows: Based on the Top-to-Top pattern, the market top is forecasted for November 3, 2025. According to the Bottom-to-Bottom pattern, the top is expected on October 13, 2025. The Halving Event-to-Top pattern suggests a market peak on October 6, 2025. Additionally, the ATH-Break-to-Top pattern indicates that the Parabolic Rise of the current cycle will begin on December 9, 2024. The predicted upcoming market cycle bottom is predicted as follows: Based on the Bottom-to-Bottom pattern, the market bottom is forecasted for October 19th 2026. According to the Top-to-Bottom pattern, the market bottom is forecasted for October 26th 2026. Here is a graphical overview of our prediction timelines: Price prediction using diminishing Returns: In the context of Bitcoin and market cycles, diminishing returns refers to the phenomenon where, as Bitcoin’s market matures and more capital or resources are invested, the incremental gains or price increases from additional investments become smaller over time. In essence this means the following: Bull Market Peaks: As a market cycle reaches its peak, diminishing returns become evident. The price increases become smaller and less dramatic each cycle compared to earlier in the cycle. Bear Market Corrections: Following the peak, the market often enters a correction phase where prices decline significantly. The decline also becomes smaller and less dramatic compared to earlier cycles. In essence, this results in less dramatic bull cycles but also less severe declines during bear markets: Here is a table overview with the values: The effects of diminishing returns are clearly observable, with one exception: the Cycle Top to the next Cycle Bottom in Cycle 3, which saw a 6x loss. However, if we take the effects of diminishing returns into consideration, we can make the following conclusions: The next Cycle Top will likely not exceed the Cycle 4 Top-to-Top multiplier of 3.4x, meaning it is unlikely to exceed a price of 224K. The next Cycle Top will likely not exceed the Cycle 4 Bot-to-Top multiplier of 20.5x, meaning it is even more unlikely to exceed a price of 333K. After considering the effects of diminishing returns, we believe a Top-to-Top multiplier in the range of 2 to 2.6 is realistic. Therefore, we predict a cycle top price of $131,000 to $170,000. Regarding the next bear market Bottom: The next Cycle Bottom will likely be below the Cycle 4 Bot-to-Bot multiplier of 5.1x, meaning it will likely be below 83K. We believe a Bot-to-Bot multiplier in the range of 3 to 4 is realistic. Therefore, we predict a cycle bottom price of $49,000 to $65,000. Final Conclusion: Predicted Cycle Top: The upcoming market cycle top is forecasted to occur in October or November 2025. Based on our analysis, we predict a price range of $131,000 to $170,000. Predicted Cycle Bottom: The upcoming market cycle bottom is forecasted to occur in October or November 2026. Based on our analysis, we predict a price range of $49,000 to $65,000. These predictions incorporate the effects of diminishing returns and historical cycle patterns.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Cryptonerds
2
Jinko Solar .... a 10-Bagger in Front?NYSE:JKS In my Eyes Jinko Solar could be one of the next 10-Baggers (not an investment advice): Positive: Sales up 420% in 6 years, but stock ist down 81% (!) Profit pretax 2023 was higher than Market Cap now (!...!) Dividend 2023 was 4% Price to sales only 0.06 ..... (!) Price near IPO of 2010 (!) Almost always proftable! Return on Equity and ROIC always positive! Worldmarket Leader Solar WITH 16B sales Several Factories around the world, also in US (in case of more Import taxes in US). Solar will boom extremly in coming years as there is no cheaper Source of energy now! With Solar and Wind you need NO Fuels(!) All other source of energy will need something like Gas, Uran, Oil, Coal etc. PERMANENTLY and Solar Panels last min 25 years with almost NO maintenance costs! All drivers of EV dream of having own Solar on Roof to drive free without paying for Gas! And EV will be the major share vehicles on the streets in comming Years WHICH WILL BOOST SOLAR IN TANDEM! Negative: Not much loved Chinese Stock Closely held by management is only 0.48% Net Dept 3.75B FCF negativ past years (!) Very competitive Solar Rooftop Market with maybe toooo many suppliers
NYSE:JKSLong
by Rolixc
1
ROSE ANALYSIS🚀#ROSE Analysis :  What Next ??💲 ✅As we can see that there was a formation of "FALLING WEDGE PATTERN" in #ROSE. We are expecting a bullish move in #ROSE after a breakout of falling wedge pattern 🔰Current Price:  $0.06235 🎯 Target Price:   $0.09755 ⚡️What to do ? 👀Keep an eye on #ROSE price action. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits. Stay tuned for further analysis and stay updated with market sentiments and news.⚡️⚡️ #ROSE  #Cryptocurrency #TechnicalAnalysis  #DYOR
Long
by ZEUS_Market_Alerts
Consolidation and … continuation soonI am anticipating a short-term drop to 210 if we break below 217, which has proven to be a strong support level. 13 September - Today, pre-orders start, and analysts will be closely watching the progress. There’s bound to be plenty of news, and to top it off, it’s Friday. Given this, I expect we may see at least a 1-2% drop, especially considering it’s September… Aside from one positive—FDA approval of their hearing aid software—Apple doesn’t have much good news. Here are the major concerns: Apple’s market share in China is falling faster than expected. We’ll see the full impact in future earnings reports. Apple lacks its own AI model and is partnering with OpenAI. To me, this is a major strategic failure, especially compared to Google, which is doing far better in this space. The iPhone 16 release is becoming less exciting. Apple has been focusing solely on processor and camera upgrades year after year, neglecting the need for innovation in AI, design changes, and tech beyond hardware. Vision Pro: This was a clear miss. I bought one and ended up returning it. A big letdown was that I couldn’t even create a separate user profile for my wife. So Apple expects me to spend £4k just for some immersive videos? That’s just ridiculous.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by GhazKhan
2
WARNING: LAST WAVE BULL RALLYThis is part of my algorithm, I consider many more factors when studying SMART MONEY MOVEMENTS, view my arrows for guidance. We're in an uptrend based on volume. My MA will start moving downwards based on uptrend volume. TA reads BEARISH but that's not what I read. Where will the uptrend end? That's up to the whales. There are plenty of BAITs for retail traders. Many will know when to get out. Do you? As the MA downtrends for an uptrend, the MA move-up means there will be a CRASH FALL.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by The_ForexX_Mindset
2
$AKTUSD massive bull flagThematic Investment Narrative: COINBASE:HNTUSD , easily the most successful DePIN Network to date, has been leading the altcoin market as a performant outlier-- with subscription count steadily increasing for their SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:MOBILE network, this is a project that is generating legitimate business flows from real-world customers, and that makes it a standout alt to hold-- few protocols can make a (substantiated) claim like that. With that context, it's not as surprising that HNT has been leading the way over the past few weeks as markets have been experiencing sideways volatility at large. Investors love altcoins because it is basically decentralized VC-- and while mom and pops can get exposure to these VC-esc exponential returns-- they are also sometimes not prepared for that same potential downside involved in such illiquid markets. The DePIN companies/projects/protocols with more 'meat on the bone' (i.e. paying customers), will be the ones that are safer to hold through this potentially brutal market VOL. So AKT: With equally solid growth and adoption/user statistics, AKT may be primed to become the second-in-class DePIN 'Blue chip'. Leases & USD spend are up, Compute, Memory, and Storage are also trending up and to the right. I feel that investors seeking outsized returns from #DePIN 's next macro leg up might look down the risk curve from HNT and see AKT as another gem in the rough Technical Analysis: - Massive Bull Flag Pattern identified - Daily Candle 1D RSI Breakout test is imminent (bottom chart purple arrow)-- perfectly aligning with the September 18th FED Rate cut decision** If we do get a surprise 50 bps cut, it might present an excellent 'last stop before moon' buy-opportunity for higher risk assets, ultimately the economic stimulus will come back steeper than it did in 2021.... hang on **25 BPS Likely, 50 BPS will probably be bearish honestly NFA DYOR
KRAKEN:AKTUSDLong
by httpz
DigitalOcean ($DOCN) | Cloud Computing Powerhouse - AWS for SMBsNYSE:DOCN DigitalOcean remains the only pure cloud computing company for small-to-medium-sized businesses (SMBs), offering a robust solution similar to AWS, but with a specific focus on cost-effectiveness and ease of use for smaller enterprises. The introduction of GPU droplets further strengthens its position in the market, catering to the growing need for AI and machine learning workloads. Despite struggles with corporate governance, the company’s technology is top-tier, making NYSE:DOCN an attractive acquisition target for larger tech players. The stock has doubled in volume recently, indicating bullish momentum is building, and we believe this sets up for a breakout. This is a long-term hold for those looking for high growth in the cloud sector. GPU droplets could accelerate this growth, positioning DigitalOcean as a critical player in a market poised for massive expansion. It is not too late to enter as we are just beginning to breakout. Should macro-driven events pull down the market, especially SMBs, we will be adding at key levels. Our entries: $24.50, $31.50, $35, Breakout over $39 Targets: $50, $70, $80 DigitalOcean is not just a small player in the cloud space; it has a specific niche that positions it for explosive growth. As SMBs increasingly adopt cloud technologies, and with GPU droplets creating a new revenue stream, DigitalOcean is set to rise. While near-term volatility exists, the long-term growth story remains intact. Investors should look at this as a multi-year play, with opportunities to accumulate during any market weakness.
NYSE:DOCN
by PennyBois
$JMIA | First on the Scene, Aiming for 5x-10x BaggerNYSE:JMIA Jumia, often referred to as the "Amazon of Africa," presents a unique opportunity for long-term investors to tap into the rapidly expanding e-commerce landscape in Africa. Our analyst, Shay Boloor, was one of the first analysts to recognize its potential, and while the company has faced challenges, the long-term thesis remains intact. We have been scaling into position between $3.50 and $4.50 as well as adding Jan 2026 $5 Calls. Trading under $5, this is a steal for investors willing to endure the volatility that comes with small caps in an emerging market. For those with patience, the reward could be substantial, with the potential for a 5-10x return over the next five years. Key Strengths and the Opportunity: Capital Strength: Jumia has raised $200 million in capital, significantly reducing solvency risk, which now stands at near zero. This financial cushion provides the company with the flexibility needed to continue its strategic growth. Long-Term Play: The stock might take time to reflect its true value as the narrative shift, much like we saw with companies like Snowflake and Unity Software, unfolds. Jumia's expansion will need time, but the thesis remains unchanged. Small Position Allocation: Due to the inherent volatility of small caps, Jumia is a small position. However, it offers massive upside potential for those who can ride out the short-term fluctuations. Market Context and Timing: We are currently in a phase of seasonal market weakness, where investors shift focus toward large-cap, defensive stocks. This shift makes small caps like Jumia more volatile and higher-risk in the near term. However, for the long-term investor, this is the moment to accumulate a position while others stay on the sidelines. Range to Watch: $5.40 to $14: This initial range represents the next key resistance levels as Jumia works its way up. $14 to $21: Liquidity zone where price can move quickly. Above $21: Should the stock break above this level, expect significant movement with liquidity zones extending to $27, $33, and potentially $40+. This stock has remained a high-conviction play. Although Jumia remains a volatile stock, it is well-positioned to capture long-term growth in the African market, making it an excellent buy-and-hold for patient investors looking to capitalize on the next big e-commerce wave. This is a prime opportunity to snag the bottom for the next run-up.
NYSE:JMIA
by PennyBois