NASDAQ - Bearish or Bullish? As you probably are aware, 10 year yields are have been increasing for the past week or so as the fear of raising interest rates increases. In short, yields go up with interest rates as bond prices decrease. When rates are projected to go up - as markets are a forward looking indicator - stock prices will decline as investors are pricing in a higher cost of capital for companies across the board. The companies that are impacted the most are growth stocks such as the ones listed in the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100. These companies get hit harder by decreasing interest rates because they are borrowing at a higher rate than value companies such as Walmart or United Parcel Services.
On the 4 hour NASDAQ futures chart, price action has held the 180 day EMA as well as the green uptrend line very strongly since the COVID - 19 crash. There have been two times since December 8th where the NASDAQ futures price action has broken below 180 EMA. In both cases, the NASDAQ failed to turn bearish shortly reversing and turning higher. Obviously, this time it's different for the reason that I mentioned above - interest rates.
On the 4 hour chart, NASDAQ Futures has sold off around 9% over the past week - flirting with corrective territory. Previously, NASDAQ Futures sold off close to 12,671.25 before appearing to have turned bullish prior to getting rejected by the 180 day EMA. After the 180 EMA rejection, NASDAQ Futures touched 12,671.25 and appears to making a break to 13,130.50. I am currently holding TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ) which is a 3x leveraged ETF on QQQ. At the time of writing this, I am currently down on my position with plans to add to my position if NASDAQ Futures can break above and hold the green uptrend line that I have drawn. As of right now, the key level that I am watching is 13,130.50 with hopes that the NASDAQ Futures can break above the 180 EMA (Blue Line) with volume. In my personal opinion, I would turn more bullish on the NASDAQ and even more bullish on TQQQ if the NASDAQ Futures can hold the 180 EMA (Blue Line) with the 20 EMA (White Line) and 50 EMA (Orange Line) crossing over the 180 EMA with volume.
