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Gu

GBPUSD - GBP Now Stronger Then The USD?Analysis: This has been a beautiful pair to trade recently and now we've got another opportunity setting up. Firstly looking at the chart it's clear to tell that we're in an upwards trend. We're forming higher highs and higher lows which confirms what we're seeing. We also have an upwards trendline which is being respected, again showing us that we're in an upwards trend so we're only interested in long positions. Price has made a move to the downside which may seem bearish, however this is just a pullback in an upwards trend. Where we're at currently looks like a great possible place to enter. We've got a previous area of resistance and as we know resistance often becomes support once broken so we expect that this will happen this time around. This isn't just our only confluence though. At this level we also have the middle between the 50% fib retracement level and the 61.8% fib retracement level, which is often called the "golden zone". All this means is that we expect bullish momentum to be in this area which would in turn push price to the upside making our level more attractive to buy at. To add further bullish strength to this level we also have an upwards trendline. This trendline has been respected multiple times in the past and every time its been touched we've seen strong bullish momentum. With trading history often repeats itself which is why we expect price will respect this upwards trendline again. Finally to further our point on the technical aspect we've been seeing slowing bearish momentum indicating to us that the bears are taking a step back and it's time for the bulls to step in and push price higher. This morning we did have some news come out for the GBP which was worse then expected, however this news isn't comparable to the bullish strength that we have so this doesn't really matter to us. Taking a look at the fundamentals as well we can see that the GBP actually overtook the USD in strength, meaning the GBP is now the 2nd strongest major currency whereas the USD is the 3rd strongest major currency, so this just furthers our bullish thesis, however we still have more bullish confluences to add to our idea. As of the most recent report for institutional positioning for the GBP we saw an increase in short positions of 18K which may seem bearish, however we also saw an increase of 24K long positions so this is very bullish for the GBP. This isn't the same for the USD however. As of the most recent report on institutional positioning for the USD we saw an increase of 7K long positions, but we also saw an increase of 8K short positions, meaning this is bearish for the USD. Overall we have all of our confluences pointing to bullishness on this pair and we're also sat at a strong level which we expect to hold, giving us a strong reason to be bullish! Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Stay Safe - The JPI Team Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Long
by jpeacockfx
2
GBP/USD Reversal Anticipation - Long BiasOutlook for GU for a long reversal. I still believe we will be expecting new highs soon, to the Monthly FVG and quite possibly to the NWOG above it. I have some potential iFVGs that will be reused as support later on. For lower prices, I am anticipating retracement into the Daily Breaker Block, or back into the NWOG. There is a 2 Week FVG and Daily Order Block further down which I don't think we will get to but it is not out of the realm of possibility. My anticipation for higher prices is based on the liquidity residing above and the strong correlation in the COT reports. Always look for confirmation.
Long
by Road_2_Funded
4
GBPUSD Buy SetupOANDA:GBPUSD Hello traders, This is my Gbpusd trade idea. Just as i predicted last week that GU will likely buy this week in lower time frames, now it seems GU is ready to start this week bullish run, hence this setup. Reasons Behind The Setup: Daily structure is bullish Price retrace to discount price levels on daily Retest old high on daily. Price retest 4Hour discount price Order block. Price created a shift in market structure on 1hour time frame. What do you see on your chart? Kindly share your thoughts in the comment section, will be reading them. If you love my idea, give me a like and follow me for more future updates like this.
Long
by Elijahenoch7
2
GBPUSD: 4HR Death Cross, LH and LL formation downtrendMaintaining my shorts on this pair with validation coming from the 50EMA (turquoise) crossing the 100EMA (white) which forms a death cross in the 4hr time frame. GBPUSD has failed to make a new higher high and so I'm expecting a push down to the recent low, we may break this immediately, or retrace back to the descending trendline that's now formed. We're making lower highs and lower lows which indicates a down-trend. Ultimately I'm expecting this pair to fall to below 1.22 in the coming weeks. Big FOMC release tomorrow, if the notes support Powell's recent hawkish stance then this will be bad for cable, then there is NFP on Friday which is a bit unknown. Fundamentally for GBP, recent data suggests inflation may be coming down, which suggests that the BoE may become less hawkish. Powell suggested a couple more hikes, which could mean Fed interest rates remain higher for longer. I'm also expecting a push up for DXY based on it's chart patterns. I'm staying short.
Short
by Finchcliffe
14
GBPUSD 4H Pullback, Long Entry Greetings, Traders, We present to you an analysis of the GBPUSD 4-hour chart. Our observations indicate a recent bullish movement, as we successfully surpassed the previous high at 1.2680. However, it is worth noting that despite encountering resistance at the breaker block, we have not yet surpassed the current high at 1.2850. As a result, there is a likelihood of a retracement within the golden area of Fibonacci, or potentially even further, around the 79% level. This retracement, commonly referred to as a premium retracement, aims to surpass the current high and target the areas around the weekly Point of Interest (POI) in the 1.30's region. Thank you for your attention and happy trading.
Long
by BlackWatch01
GBPUSD: My 4 scenarios for this weekThese are just my ideas, what I’m expecting, and why, with this week’s the big fundamentals. Overview Big market-moving news this week with Wednesday’s UK CPI, Thursday’s BoE Interest Rate Decision and Forecast, there is also FED Powell’s testimony in between the UK events on Wednesday. Several things could play out with the UK news, which is what my scenarios are based on. I’m expecting Powell to be hawkish because even though it’s clear that the US is on top of inflation, they are still double their target and thanks to their economic performance they have room to keep tightening and can still avoid recession, imho. The BoE on the other hand have a massive predicament. Inflation is out of control, far worse than the other G7 economies. Interest rate rises are squeezing the economy, UK mortgage rates are now hitting 6%. In my opinion another 1.25% interest rates will cause recession. The BoE moved too slow and are behind inflation, they have to keep hiking to do anything about it, but there will be a tipping point where the market sees this as a negative for the GBP. UK Inflation / Interest Rates BoE have consistently under-estimated inflation through this period. This time their forecast is higher than the previous month forecast (8.5% compared to 8.3% previous, inflation fell to 8.7% last time so I think they’ve been more realistic with their prediction this time). If inflation is coming down (I think it is), then we could see a better than forecast reduction (red), which could be bad for GBPUSD. If it comes in lower (red) then it’s ‘more’ likely there’ll be a 0.25% rate hike, this is priced in, and I think this will cause GU to fall. If BoE are brave enough to go with the 0.5% outside prediction, then this could cause GU to rise. If Wednesday’s CPI number shows inflation is above predication (green) (and likely to be rising as it was 8,.7% last time and the predication this time is 8.5%), then this further demonstrates that the BoE have been way off the mark in controlling it compared to the rest of the G7, which is not good. I do think short term this will be positive for GU, but only for banks making money, it’s terrible for the UK economy and the BoE. If it is green and BoE only raise rates by 0.25% then I think this may send GU down as it’s a further demonstration of their ineptitude. If they do go with the 0.5% hike in this scenario, then this could send sterling higher in the short term. Either way and in each scenario, I think GU will struggle to get beyond 1.29 in this visit based on long term dynamic trendline, overall down-trend, a bubble of a credit based economy, better performing US economy and the US being the global currency (and expecting China performance below expectations), etc etc, and breathe…. Also, in technical news, I’m also seeing some divergence on the RSI, and GU is overbought. My Scenarios Here’s my scenarios on the chart, end of today I’m expecting to be around the 1.27 level on the chart based on retracement from Friday’s high and DXY having some room to move up to resistance (around 1.03), but let’s see what happens today and I'll review this again this evening. 1. Red CPI / 0.25% Hike This is an inflation figure that comes in below the 8.5% prediction and the BoE raising rates by 0.25%. This is what I think will happen and it will mean reversal. 2. Red CPI / 0.5% Hike This is an inflation figure that comes in below the 8.5% prediction and the BoE raising rates by 0.5%. This is what should happen if the BoE are brave enough, but I think it will worry markets about recession. 3. Green CPI / 0.25% Hike This is an inflation figure that comes in above the 8.5% prediction and the BoE raising rates by 0.25%. This is a terrible situation, inflation going up and the BoE still not having the balls to make up for lost time and tackle it head on. 4. Green CPI / 0.5% Hike This is an inflation figure that comes in above the 8.5% prediction and the BoE raising rates by 0.5%. In this scenario this is what I believe the BoE should do, it will likely cause GU to go up, but as I’ve said I personally think topside is limited by the prevailing downtrend. In this scenario there will be growing fears of a recession, change of government will be pretty much a given, so overall I still think this will be bad for GU in the medium term. These are just my thoughts as we go into the next few days. Interested to hear your comments so I can keep learning and adjusting my thinking!
by Finchcliffe
29