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Gu

GBPUSD: 4HR Death Cross, LH and LL formation downtrendMaintaining my shorts on this pair with validation coming from the 50EMA (turquoise) crossing the 100EMA (white) which forms a death cross in the 4hr time frame. GBPUSD has failed to make a new higher high and so I'm expecting a push down to the recent low, we may break this immediately, or retrace back to the descending trendline that's now formed. We're making lower highs and lower lows which indicates a down-trend. Ultimately I'm expecting this pair to fall to below 1.22 in the coming weeks. Big FOMC release tomorrow, if the notes support Powell's recent hawkish stance then this will be bad for cable, then there is NFP on Friday which is a bit unknown. Fundamentally for GBP, recent data suggests inflation may be coming down, which suggests that the BoE may become less hawkish. Powell suggested a couple more hikes, which could mean Fed interest rates remain higher for longer. I'm also expecting a push up for DXY based on it's chart patterns. I'm staying short.
Short
by Finchcliffe
14
GBPUSD 4H Pullback, Long Entry Greetings, Traders, We present to you an analysis of the GBPUSD 4-hour chart. Our observations indicate a recent bullish movement, as we successfully surpassed the previous high at 1.2680. However, it is worth noting that despite encountering resistance at the breaker block, we have not yet surpassed the current high at 1.2850. As a result, there is a likelihood of a retracement within the golden area of Fibonacci, or potentially even further, around the 79% level. This retracement, commonly referred to as a premium retracement, aims to surpass the current high and target the areas around the weekly Point of Interest (POI) in the 1.30's region. Thank you for your attention and happy trading.
Long
by BlackWatch01
GBPUSD: My 4 scenarios for this weekThese are just my ideas, what I’m expecting, and why, with this week’s the big fundamentals. Overview Big market-moving news this week with Wednesday’s UK CPI, Thursday’s BoE Interest Rate Decision and Forecast, there is also FED Powell’s testimony in between the UK events on Wednesday. Several things could play out with the UK news, which is what my scenarios are based on. I’m expecting Powell to be hawkish because even though it’s clear that the US is on top of inflation, they are still double their target and thanks to their economic performance they have room to keep tightening and can still avoid recession, imho. The BoE on the other hand have a massive predicament. Inflation is out of control, far worse than the other G7 economies. Interest rate rises are squeezing the economy, UK mortgage rates are now hitting 6%. In my opinion another 1.25% interest rates will cause recession. The BoE moved too slow and are behind inflation, they have to keep hiking to do anything about it, but there will be a tipping point where the market sees this as a negative for the GBP. UK Inflation / Interest Rates BoE have consistently under-estimated inflation through this period. This time their forecast is higher than the previous month forecast (8.5% compared to 8.3% previous, inflation fell to 8.7% last time so I think they’ve been more realistic with their prediction this time). If inflation is coming down (I think it is), then we could see a better than forecast reduction (red), which could be bad for GBPUSD. If it comes in lower (red) then it’s ‘more’ likely there’ll be a 0.25% rate hike, this is priced in, and I think this will cause GU to fall. If BoE are brave enough to go with the 0.5% outside prediction, then this could cause GU to rise. If Wednesday’s CPI number shows inflation is above predication (green) (and likely to be rising as it was 8,.7% last time and the predication this time is 8.5%), then this further demonstrates that the BoE have been way off the mark in controlling it compared to the rest of the G7, which is not good. I do think short term this will be positive for GU, but only for banks making money, it’s terrible for the UK economy and the BoE. If it is green and BoE only raise rates by 0.25% then I think this may send GU down as it’s a further demonstration of their ineptitude. If they do go with the 0.5% hike in this scenario, then this could send sterling higher in the short term. Either way and in each scenario, I think GU will struggle to get beyond 1.29 in this visit based on long term dynamic trendline, overall down-trend, a bubble of a credit based economy, better performing US economy and the US being the global currency (and expecting China performance below expectations), etc etc, and breathe…. Also, in technical news, I’m also seeing some divergence on the RSI, and GU is overbought. My Scenarios Here’s my scenarios on the chart, end of today I’m expecting to be around the 1.27 level on the chart based on retracement from Friday’s high and DXY having some room to move up to resistance (around 1.03), but let’s see what happens today and I'll review this again this evening. 1. Red CPI / 0.25% Hike This is an inflation figure that comes in below the 8.5% prediction and the BoE raising rates by 0.25%. This is what I think will happen and it will mean reversal. 2. Red CPI / 0.5% Hike This is an inflation figure that comes in below the 8.5% prediction and the BoE raising rates by 0.5%. This is what should happen if the BoE are brave enough, but I think it will worry markets about recession. 3. Green CPI / 0.25% Hike This is an inflation figure that comes in above the 8.5% prediction and the BoE raising rates by 0.25%. This is a terrible situation, inflation going up and the BoE still not having the balls to make up for lost time and tackle it head on. 4. Green CPI / 0.5% Hike This is an inflation figure that comes in above the 8.5% prediction and the BoE raising rates by 0.5%. In this scenario this is what I believe the BoE should do, it will likely cause GU to go up, but as I’ve said I personally think topside is limited by the prevailing downtrend. In this scenario there will be growing fears of a recession, change of government will be pretty much a given, so overall I still think this will be bad for GU in the medium term. These are just my thoughts as we go into the next few days. Interested to hear your comments so I can keep learning and adjusting my thinking!
by Finchcliffe
29
GU Long PART 2 For starters if you took my last GU trade nows a good time to close its up 440+ points and its not moving exactly how I want it to its up to yall Im just trying to secure your bag as it is at a 1:1 R:R. Now for this next trade 1. Bullish long term 2. Equal lows 3. Imbalance 4. Market structure 5. 2+3+4 Align to make confluence 6. Confluence lines up with Golden pocket Looking for a retracement after the new high was created. The next potential target for a retracement would be where the money is and that is where my entry comes into play. If this entry hits this is an extremely high probability setup and if the stop loss is large enough this should be a guarantee. I Never guarantee anything but man does this one look promising
Long
by jonathancarlucci
GBPUSD about to make a big move down?I've been closely monitoring current LTF price action and about to go short on this pair. We've retested last weeks broken dynamic support, and running out of steam right now. I'm seeing DXY continuing to grow, to at least 105 in the coming week or so. BoE hawkish sentiment, failure to get inflation under control, despite hikes gives the mark no confidence, and therefor a risk off mentality. My ultimate target is 1.185 area, but will be taking partials on the way down. Happy trading!
Short
by Finchcliffe
2
GBPUSD Outlook for the Week AheadThe GBP/USD currency pair has recently seen bullish pressure take control, with bears unable to invalidate the crucial demand/support zone at 1.23823. Over the past two weeks, the 1.25044 supply/resistance level has successfully held, prompting the question: what's next for the GBP/USD pair? To answer this, we'll analyze the daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour candlestick charts. The daily chart reveals a significant supply/resistance level at 1.26080, near the psychological 1.26000 price level. The bullish trend is evident as long as the 1.25044 level holds, with the price above the 20-day EMA and MACD zero level. Should the 1.25000 zone fail to hold the price, a push down to the nearest demand/support zone at 1.21821 is expected. Similar bullish trends are observed in the 4-hour and 1-hour charts, with the price trading above the 20-period EMA and MACD zero level. The multiple timeframes support the uptrend, with the next week's price movements being closely watched. However, the technical outlook for GBP/USD remains uncertain, with market sentiment being the key driver. The range between 1.2350 and 1.2550 offers potential range-bound opportunities, with a daily candle close above or below the range top or bottom being key for bullish continuation or a deeper correction to the downside. Retail traders are currently short on GBP/USD, but a contrarian view suggests a short-term bullish bias. While no major news is expected for the GBP next week, the USD has several high-impact news events, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, and Unemployment Rate, among others. These events could potentially affect the GBP/USD pair, making it essential to monitor technical indicators and upcoming news to identify potential shifts in market sentiment.
Long
by ClintOnos