ETH's next volatility period: around December 16
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(ETHUSDT 1D chart)
Since BTC is currently renewing its ATH, if the price of BTC maintains a reasonable level, I think ETH and altcoins are likely to continue their upward trend.
This is because funds are continuously flowing in through USDT or USDC.
This inflow of funds can be seen as evidence that the FOMO phenomenon is being created.
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However, if someone continues to sell, there will be a change of hands.
If this change of hands is somewhat from the powerful to individual investors, it will eventually turn into a downtrend.
In that sense, the altcoin bull market can be seen as the last stage of the bull market.
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What we need to think about here is that the coin market is expected to maintain an uptrend until 2025.
Therefore, if it shows signs of turning into a downtrend, we need to secure some cash to realize profits and buy again.
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I think that for the altcoin bull market to start, BTC dominance needs to fall below 55.01 and be maintained or continue to decline.
Therefore, the current market can be seen as the beginning of entering the altcoin bull market.
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The point of interest is whether ETH can maintain its price around 3602.01-3707.61 or higher.
If so, it is expected to renew the ATH.
As I mentioned in the explanation of the BTC chart, if it falls below the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, it is likely to meet the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart, so you should think about a response plan for this.
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For altcoins, if BTC is maintained near or above the important support and resistance zone, it is more likely to turn into profit more quickly if you focus on finding the right time to buy when the candle on the 1D chart is a downward candle.
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Have a good time.
Thank you.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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