Crypto Outlook - Litecoin - 2017-11-27Price continued higher today, riding up the Bolling Band. Price is forming a nice U shape which may turn into a cup and handle pattern.
Hadelta
Crypto Outlook - Bitcoin - 2017-11-27Prices continued to move higher today on Bitcoin 1.17% 1.15% , flirting with the $10k level. As price keeps riding up on the outer Bollinger Band , $10,478 would be a 1:1 move from the wave that started on Sept 15, 2017 at around $3,000.
Crypto Outlook - Bitcoin - 2017-11-27Prices continued to move higher today on Bitcoin 1.15% , flirting with the $10k level. As price keeps riding up on the outer Bollinger Band , $10,478 would be a 1:1 move from the wave that started on Sept 15, 2017 at around $3,000.
Crude Tests Higher After Inv RPT but Falls Below Key LevelsCrude tested higher this morning after the weekly inventory report showed a bigger than projected sell-off of inventory. However, WTI Crude failed to maintain it's bullish run and ended the day below the 2 important key levels. Those levels are the 21 day moving average @ 48.41 and the monthly pivot @ 48.13. And while the Elliot Wave Oscillator has not yet crossed below the 0 line, the haDelta indicator has printed a new magenta dot which indicates a new downward wave is starting. This gives the confluence of 3 technical indications to support the move down to the 45 to 45.50 price area.
Nice downtrend now on the Heikin-Ashi chart.
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Crude Oil Moves Down $1 but Fails to Close Below RangeCrude oil closed down $1 today. During the day, my first price target @ 48.36 was hit (I mentioned that in last night's post). Crude did hit a low of 47.73 but was unable to stay below the 48 price level, and in a something of show of strength, rebounded almost a dollar off the day's lows. The closing price of 47.73 was just 2 cents shy of the 21 day moving average.
So while the late day rally did show signs of strength, the technical indicators are still showing a more bearish outlook. First, there's the haDelta which has just printed a new magenta dot. That indicates a high probability of another downward wave. Second, the EWO indicator has been moving down since May 25 and is close to a zero line cross. Third, the Heikin-Ashi candles are red and starting to show signs of a continued downward trend.
The key levels right now are 21 day moving average and the Primary Pivot Point (orange lines). I've added the standard Pivot Point indicator to the chart and set the type to Fibonacci. The P level is currently at 48.13. A break below this level will increase the odds of a continued move down to the lower Bollinger Bands.
Crude Oil inventories come out tomorrow at 11 am EST. This is on Thursday this week due to the Monday holiday in the US. There is also other news tomorrow morning including Jobless Claims at 8:30 am EST and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10 am EST. Expect some news generated volatility and protect your trades accordingly.
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Crude Closes Down .57 After Inventory AnnouncementCrude Oil had another down day on Wednesday, declining sharply after the inventory report was released. You can see the sharp selloff on the 30 minute chart below. Attempts to buy up crude at discounted prices were meet with renewed selling. All the indicators on the chart are red and pointing down. As I am going on vacation Friday, I'm hoping for a tag of the 47 level tonight or tomorrow.
The Heikin Ashi chart is clearly in a down trend.
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Natural Gas Stalls, Bollinger Bands ContractIn a clear sign that Natural Gas is range bound, the Bollinger Bands have flattened out and are contracting. Yesterday's closing price was trapped between the 7 and 21 day moving averages and today it is trading slightly above them. Monday's tag of the cyan Bollinger Band (1.5 standard deviation) signaled a potential renewal of selling but the lack of follow through supports the idea that price will be range bound for the time being.
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Gold Closes Lower, Dollar Strengthens on FOMC AnnoucementGold closed down almost 20 points today as the FOMC announced it would not raise the Fed interest rate in May but left a rate hike on the table for June. But regardless of that news, let's look at the technical aspects of the precious metal's chart.
First, the tag of the lower Bollinger Band was what I've been discussing during this bear selloff began in Mid April. This is what I call the 'Coast to Coast' trade, moving from one end of the Bollinger Band to the other.
Second, the haDelta indicator printed a magenta dot on Tuesday when the Delta crossed down under the smoother Delta average. This was a bearish signal and combined with the proximity of the lower Bollinger Band, gave statistical weight to holding onto a short position.
Third, the Heikin-Ashi candles are in a long red downward trajectory. Although last week ended with 2 weak HA candles, the candles have become stronger the last 2 days which indicates a possible resumption of the sell-off.
Now that the lower Bollinger Band has been hit, what is next? We need to watch price action over the next couple of days. If Gold is in an oversold state, then expect a correction to take place. This may result in some sideways action or in a sharp buying spurt. Or, there may be continued sell-off over the next couple of days. Watch the Heikin Ashi candles. If the trend is about to reverse, you will see Dojis and color changes. Also watch for a cross back over the 0 line of both the haDelta Indicator and Elliot Wave Oscillators.
I will be out on vacation for the next couple of weeks so I wish all of you good luck trading and protect your profits!
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Crude Oil Trades to a Low of 47.35 Before Rebounding SharplyCrude Oil dropped off 1.5 dollars, sharply breaking through the previous pivot low @ 48.20. However, at the end of the day, on the heals of the EIA report that there was a bigger than expected draw on crude oil inventories, the price of crude rebounded to close @ 48.10. In spite of the retracement, I am still bearish on Crude and expect a drop down to the trend line and lower Bollinger Band @ 47.00.
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Natural Gas Moves Lower, Closing under 21 Day Moving AverageNatural Gas moved lower on Tuesday, closing just under the 21 day moving average. In fact, it is smack in the middle of the 7 day and 21 day moving averages. A solid close under the 7 day moving average will put 3.00 clearly in our sights. We also have a change in the Heikin-Ashi candles, going red after Monday's red doji (see Heikin-Ashi chart below). We now need to see solid follow through to the downside.
I've drawn a couple of yellow lines on the chart, representing 'Hidden Divergence'. This is different than regular divergence and it doesn't happen that often. But when it does, you should take notice. It indicates that there is a potential change of direction coming and that the current trend is exhausted. In Hidden Divergence, the oscillator moves in the direction of the trend but price does not follow. In this case, the Elliot Wave Oscillator moved higher but price did not. As I said, Hidden Divergence doesn't happen all that often. I had to go back to April 27, 2015 for another example in Natural Gas and I've included that chart example below. It shows that the oscillator moved lower but price did not. There was also confluence with price hitting the lower Bollinger Band at the same time. Price did change direction and moved higher leading to a profitable trade.
Hidden Divergence and a close below the 21 day moving average are signs that a downward move is coming.
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Gold Closed Slightly Lower after Tagging SupportGold closed slightly lower on Tuesday, down .4 points. In early morning trading, Gold had moved down and touched the lower cyan Bollinger Band, which is 1.5 Std Deviations from the 21 day mid point moving average. The rest of the day was subdued, as we await the next move. The haDelta indicator did print a new magenta dot which indicates that more downside movement is likely. This reverses the yellow, bullish, dot that was printed on Monday. In addition, the Heikin-Ashi candles remain red and the Elliot Wave Oscillator is also solid red. At this point, it is statistically probably that gold will continue moving down at least until it hits the lower red Bollinger Band.
Tuesday's Heikin-Ashi candle was a good, strong red candle which was a very nice recovery from Monday's mixed candle that had wicks at both ends.
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Crude Oil Hits Target, Lower Targets in Site.Crude Oil continues to sell off in the afternoon session, blasting through the ice at the 48.20 pivot low I mentioned earlier. The next target is the 47.00 - 47.10 range where's a triple bottom from March and an upward moving trendline that began in April, 2016.
NatGas Hits Top of Range before Closing LowerNatGas started the day moving above Friday's high but missed touching the upper Bollinger Band. Price then reversed and NatGas ended the day below last Thursday and Friday's low (after tagging the 21 day moving average). This could all be leading to a narrow trading range while price consolidates. This idea is supported by the flattening out of the Bollinger Bands. If this is the case, then you want to sell at the upper Bollinger Band and buy at the lower Bollinger Band. For now, use your range trading plans.
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Gold Remains Under PressureDespite rumors of a Gold rally that permeated the ideashpere over the weekend, the precious metal continued to sell off today, closing near the bottom of the day and down 14 points. Last Friday's candle, while an up candle, still closed the day, and the week, under both the 7 and 21 day moving average. It was also a red Heikin-Ashi candle. In fact, all the indicators are also red. Finally, I want to point out the if price is trading under both 7 and 21 day moving averages, it is statistically probably that price will hit the lower Bollinger Bands. While nothing is 100% in trading, the odds are definitely in favor of touching the lower Bollinger Band. The haDelta indicator has printed a new magenta dot which signals that the smoothed moving average has turned down below the raw price delta.
I do want to call out that Monday's Heikin-Ashi candle did have an upper wick, which is not usually present in a strong trending situation. Let's treat this as a warning only and watch what happens when price does hit the lower Bollinger Band.
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Crude Remains Under Downward PressureCrude Oil sold off today, falling .43 points and continuing to stay well under the 7 day moving average. And while the haDelta indicator last Tuesday gave a potential reversal signal (see the yellow circle?), there is no indication that the downward wave is finished.
The bottom indicator is the Elliot Wave Oscillator. It, too, is showing strong downward movement. I am expecting price to keep moving lower towards the 47.70 - 47.15 range. The first is the lower Bollinger Band and the second is the yellow trend line.
Zoomed out chart to show the entire trend line.
The Heikin-Ashi chart shows that Monday's Heikin-Ashi candle was a decent recovery after last Firday's doji. While it wasn't the strongest of candles and is still inside of last Thursday's candle, it is still red and confirms the downward trend.
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NatGas Rises from Lower Bollinger Bands, haDelta Turns PositiveNatural Gas jumped up today, rising from the lower Bollinger Bands and tagging the 21 day moving average. As the haDelta has also turned positive, I will be looking for a pullback to enter a long position.
Here is the Heikin-Ashi chart:
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Gold Rallies at End of Day. Will it Continue?Gold fell to a new 2 week low during Wednesday's trading. That is, until the end of the day when the administration's tax plan was released and Gold rallied higher to close the trading session. However, Gold met resistance at the 21 day moving average and if you look at the Heikin-Ashi chart below, today's trading ended in a strong red Heikin-Ashi candle. That begs the question of whether or not the spike was an anomaly or not. The haDelta indicator is still red. I am still bearish and holding onto my short positions.
As I mentioned last night, there is a strong trading range from 1245 - 1265. I've now outlined that area with a green rectangle. I've also added 2 volume profiles to the chart (you can see them in their entirety on the very bottom chart). The long term Volume Profile dates from the beginning of 2016 to today. What's interesting is that the Point of Control is smack in the middle of that trading range. And that also coincides with the 23% fib retracement of the current year's rally.
The Point of Control on the short term Volume Profile is nearly at the same level as the 38% retracement. If price does drop in the coming days, these would be the areas of interest.
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Gold Short TargetsI want to follow up on my earlier post on potential downside targets for Gold. There are 2 immediate targets.
There is a 23% fib retracement at 1256.5. This fib is based on the yearly high and low. You can see a strong line of support there.
A trendline that extended from the last 2 pivot lows has a strong confluence with the same fib's 38% retracement level. It's also in the general price are of the lower Bollinger Band.
To recap, 2 strong support levels at 1256 and 1231.
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NatGas Continues Bearish DeclineNatural Gas moved lower today, dropping .01 points. And another strong Heikin-Ashi candle, supported by a very bearish haDelta, gives us confidence that the downward trend will continue.
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Gold Closes Just under Important 21 Day Moving AverageGold closed down on Tuesday, just below the 21 day moving average. You can see that the body of Tuesday's candle covers the wick of yesterday's candle. That means that the sell-off today was not met by strong buying. We've also had 2 strong Heikin-Ashi candles in a row (see chart below). All indicators are pointing to a continued sell off and I am maintaining my first price target of 1235.30 which is the lower Bollinger Band.
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Gold at Critical 21 Day Moving AverageGold is trading lower today and back at the key support level of the 21 day moving average. haDelta is very bearish. Let's see were Gold ends the day. If Gold does break the 21 day ma, then the next target is the lower Bollinger Band which is now at 1235.
NatGas Drops to 1st Price Target at Lower Bollinger BandNatural Gas started the week with a sharp drop to a low of 3.031, hitting the lower Bollinger Band @ 3.03, which was my first profit target. This completed the coast to coast trade that begin with a short entry at 3.27 on April 5. After a week and a half of sideway motion and dojis, today's price drop was a welcome event. With both the haDelta and the Heikin-Ashi charts showing that a possible momentum speedup is in the works, I remain bearish.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Closes Lower & Hits Support at the 21 Day Moving AverageGold gapped lower on Sunday night and dropped to the 21 day moving average @ 1266. Even though price rebounded off that support area, the precious metal still closed well under the 7 day moving average and now seems like it wants to re-test Monday's low. We also had the first strong red Heikin-Ashi candle since the downturn from the upper Bollinger Band (see chart below). We will want to see more of these strong Heikin-Ashi candles to give us confidence that a strong downward move is in progress and not just a chop zone of sideways price action. The haDelta indicator is confirming the downtrend as well.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
