A Brief History of the Bitcoin Halving Here. Hello, welcome to this BTC HALVING update.
Bitcoin (BTC) halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years in the Bitcoin network. During a halving event, the reward that miners receive for validating and adding new blocks to the blockchain is reduced by half. This event is programmed into the Bitcoin protocol and serves several purposes:
Supply Control: Bitcoin halving is a mechanism to control the inflation of the cryptocurrency. By reducing the reward that miners receive, the rate at which new bitcoins are created slows down. This scarcity can potentially drive up the price of Bitcoin if demand remains or increases.
Scheduled Issuance: It ensures a predictable issuance schedule for Bitcoin. Every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, the reward for mining new blocks is halved. This predictable schedule helps users and investors plan for the future supply of Bitcoin.
Security: The halving also plays a role in the security of the Bitcoin network. As the block reward decreases, miners are incentivized to continue securing the network through transaction validation and block creation by transaction fees. This transition from block rewards to transaction fees is expected to be a key driver of miner incentives as Bitcoin's supply approaches its maximum limit of 21 million coins.
Here's a brief history of Bitcoin halvings:
First Halving: November 28, 2012 - The block reward was reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.
Second Halving: July 9, 2016 - The block reward was reduced from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.
Third Halving: May 11, 2020 - The block reward was reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.
The next halving is expected to occur approximately every four years, reducing the block reward by half each time until the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins is reached, which is estimated to happen in the year 2140. These halving events are closely watched by the cryptocurrency community and can have an impact on Bitcoin's price and overall ecosystem.
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Halving2012
BTC Next Halving ?Hello everyone, today I would like to share an idea about bitcoin next halving.
Can we predict the next halving of bitcoin with the help of previous cycles?
A bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place every 210,000 blocks. Three bitcoin halvings have already taken place, one in 2012, 2016, and the last halving in 2020.
The bitcoin halving prediction shown above is for the next halving set to occur in 2024.
The next bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place at block 840,000 which is predicted to be on Jun 30, 2024.
At the bitcoin halving 2024, the bitcoin block reward is scheduled to drop from 6.25 bitcoin per block to 3.125 bitcoin per block.
From a technical analysis point of view we could roughly estimate the next halving in August 2024. It is still a bit early to have a precise estimate, at the time of writing this idea we are on November 27, 2022, date at which the market has not yet reached its lowest point.
We can see from past data that over the last twelve years August has been more often in the negative than in the positive. In the ten months preceding it, especially April 2024 and May 2024 could be conducive to a potential halving of 2024.
The financial markets are cyclical, so there is a good chance that bitcoin will go up at some point, but since it is highly correlated to the S&P500 it could be in 1 month or 10 years.
To guarantee that bitcoin could exceed its high would be completely absurd, given the short history we have of bitcoin, the very notion of halving is to be taken with a pinch of salt. Indeed it has only happened three times. The market is very young (less than 20 years) so it is very complicated to predict these cycles.
In my opinion, in order to predict the next halving (and although according to me this notion of halving should be taken with a pinch of salt), we should wait to see where our next low will be. Depending on this, we could then observe whether the macroeconomic environment is evolving in a direction favourable to a next bull run. If the low point seems logical (around $12,000), that the environment is favourable to a new bull run and finally that a range break occurs from above $34,000 then it could seem interesting to invest in BTC to aim for $65,000 or even why not a new ATH.
I would like to remind you that crypto-currencies are very risky and highly volatile investments. Therefore, for the majority of investors, they should represent less than 5% of their capital.
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
Written by @maxencechachuat on 27 November 2022.
Bitcoin's journey through halvings: are you ready?Hello fellow traders. Hope you all well and safe during these quarantine times.
As we approach halving time, it's definitely good to take an overall look at BTC's journey till here, and what the future can bring to us, if history continues to follow same fractal patterns.
Hope you are ready.
Cheers!
Bitcoin 3rd Halving: How to react?While bitcoin is still ranging, I would like to speculate what to expect from the approaching halving of the block reward event and how it was last time.
November 28, 2012
The first Bitcoin halving takes place to reduce mining rewards to 25 BTC
As you can see on the chart below bitcoin price experienced two falls (40% and 25%) prior to date. After the Halving BTC didn't fall that deep and went straight up after 50 days.
July 9, 2016
Second halving takes mining reward down to 12.5 BTC.
Two months prior to halving, Bitcoin managed to grow by 75% and fall by 23%. And after 22 days from the event's date, it falls 30%. After that, the price only climbed up.
May 12, 2020
About year to date, the price was in some sort of big channel and sharply dropped by ~57% due to coronavirus outbreak about 70th days ago.
So, what can we expect?
We can expect the second drop after about a month or less after the halving, like in 2016, i.e 'sell-the-news' reaction.
High volatility - like a pump to $10300 (high channel boundary) and dump to $7200 (lower).
Confident further growth only after 2+ months after the halving
It needs to remember, all the above is just speculation, and bitcoin can easily fly to the moon or dump to the ground on the 12th of May, but having the information about previous events could help to prepare for a new one.
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Information is just for educational purposes, never financial advice. Always do your own research.
Projection for Bitcoin before/during/after the Halving.Very simple analysis of what btc has been doing in the lead up to the previous 2 halvings and a projection based on my findings.
notice that after the first halving btc went up by 9200% and after the second "only" by 3200%. which would be roughly a third.
i understand that Bitcoin halvings have not occurred often enough to gather any real data. therefore i have projected based on the "thirdening" that in the next bullrun after the halvening BTC will rise by "only" aprox 1000%. This puts it in the 100K range at the end of 2021.
in the time leading up to the halving i have projected price to be around 12K at the time of halving. This is based on the percentage increase btc has made in the previous run-ups to halvings. going up by 393% in the first and 412% in the second.
notice!
I am not a professional and none of this is financial advice. I merely found a pattern, that does not mean that this pattern has any validity and will continue.
because this is a pattern that (imo) could be spotted from outer space, there is a great chance someone else has seen it too and/or posted about it. that does not make this "stolen" nor does it make any future posts from others "stolen"from my ideas. have fun
BTC Halvnig: statistical price analysis - 150 000 USD?New bitcoins are issued by the Bitcoin network every 10 minutes. For the first four years of Bitcoin's existence, the amount of new bitcoins issued every 10 minutes was 50. Every four years, this number is cut in half. The day the amount halves is called a "halving".The halving decreases the amount of new bitcoins generated per block. This means the supply of new bitcoins is lower. In normal markets, lower supply with steady demand usually leads to higher prices. Since the halving reduces the supply of new bitcoins, and demand usually remains steady, the halving has usually preceded some of Bitcoin's largest runs.
Bitcoin currency is because of halving deflating. Normaly when the need for money is bigger banks print more money: because of that inflation of currency can happen. That means the money isnt worth anything. Currency prices skyrocket by the hour. This has happened many times in course of human history. Bitcoin on the other hand has limited supply and every halving means that the price of 1 bitcoin has to increase to cover the cost of mining. Many times has been said that after the halving nothing will happen or miners will stop to mine Bitcoin, that just didnt happen.
I got inspiration for this analysis from a youtube video published in 2015 before the halving of 2016. Man in the video has predicted that the price of BTC will skyrocket after the halving because it has happen before. At the time he was would be probably proclaimed to be insane, but still here we are in year 2019 and the price is 5000 dollars. If you want to see this video which is fascinating on the fact he was right you can acces it here: www.youtube.com
In my statistical analysis I covered how much has the price changed in the folowing years. I took a measurement of 3000% increase after halving and tried to implement it in today price. On first graph i covered price from the first halving on BTC until 3000% increase.
On my second graph u can see that 3000% increase in price also happened but it took BTC more time.
Third graph shows the halving that will happen on 21.05.2020. I took base price range for today BTC price. Until 21.05.2020 price will surely change.
I simply added 3000% increase in price of today and got a price 150 000 USD.
Assuming that the price will change until 21.05.2020, and it would be 20 000 USD which I think it could be, then 3000% increase would be = 600 000 USD. Crazy right :D