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Halving2020

BTC Wyckoff Distribution RoadmapNEXT STAGES: 1. Sign of Weakness @ 11100, range low support 2. Upthrust After Distribution @ 11900, H&S distribution resistance. Also parallel ascending channel TL resistance 3. Distribution, LPS, and Major Sign of Weakness at key S/R of 10750 Textbook Wyckoff Distribution so far. Check out this link to a schematic: www.google.com Chart would form a broadening wedge as it evolves and the HTF RSI bearish divergence on the 12H/D would get to play out in time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Riester
BTC Parallel Channel Low @ 10750Strong bearish divergence and overhead wicks at 11500. Heading back towards low of parallel channels, both the LTF orange and HTF light blue channels. TL resistance from 12500 head and 12100 right shoulder of H&S pattern to 12500 would be retested as support @ 10750 10750 is an important horizontal S/R area ABC breakdown: retest 0.618 FIB level - A = retest of critical S/R @ 11100. It was support for range from 11100 - 12500, and resistance for consolidation range from 9800 - 11100. - B = retest as resistance @ 11300 - C = retest parallel channel lows @ 10750 LONG CONDITION: - SWP long-tail wicks at 10750 channel low - Bullish divergence on RSI & OBV - Volume increase on retest as support - Confirmation: Open Interest increases as we bounce above 10750 SORT CONDITION: - Breakdown of TL support of channel - Volume increase on breakdown of TL support @ 10750 - RSI & obv showing no signs of reversal - Confirmation: backtest of channel as resistance @ 10750
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Riester
2
BTC Macro Outlook: Critical Point at 10850HIGH TIME FRAME: 1. Ascending TL support from March Dump with potential backtest as resistance. Rejection of 10850 is very bearish 2. Descending TL resistance from early August testing again as resistance. 3rd test of this TL. More tests = weaker S/R 10850 is critical S/R for TLs. Watch carefully 3. 12H RSI is has retested orange MA (30 day) as support. A bigger bounce would be good confirmation 4. Daily RSI is at the 30S MA, so could go above or below... 5. OBV steadily rising all the while LOW TIME FRAME: 1. Ascending triangle consolidation under 10850 resistance. Ascending triangles tend to break more so to the upside. 2. 1H RSI bullish divergence in this triangle 3. Long tail wick off of 10550 S/R area. Critical support to hold, and it bounced with strength. 4. OBV rising within this consolidation. Volume confirms direction of movement. KEY AREAS TO WATCH: 1. 10850 is critical horizontal and descending TL resistance 2. 11000 is ascending TL resistance. We could potentially break 10850, but reject from 11000. Rejection of 11000 is HTF TL support flipped resistance from March. WE have been in as uptrend until now, if that occurs. INVALIDATION & TARGETS: 1. Break 11000 and next major resistance @ 12500 2. Reject 10850 and next major support @ 8900
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by Riester
RidetheMacro| BTCUSD Market commentary 2020.09.24 📉🔺 Bitcoin has fallen to a fresh weekly trading low, following another day of heavy technical selling in the S&P 500 and other US equity markets. Technical selling was also a factor in the recent decline, following a breakout below a symmetrical triangle pattern. BTCUSD bulls now need to defend the $10,300 level to encourage a rally back towards the $10,500 resistance area. 📌 The BTCUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the $10,500 level, key resistance is found at the $11,100 and the $11,400 levels. If the BTCUSD pair trades below the $10,500 level, sellers may test the $10,200 and $9,500 levels. ⚠ Concerning the USD, the Chair of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Secretary will be testifying before Congress at 3pm London time. Until the Next Time.🤗 Ride the Macro
Short
by Ridethemacro
BTC Trend Line Support and CME Gap1. CME Gap @ 9660-9925. We have entered the gap zone, so we should we should continue to drop until it is closed at 9660. 2. Trend line resistance from 2019/2020 highs was broken through on our way to 12k. I believe this will be the proper retest as support we need to move onto to higher price levels. You have to establish a floor (support) before you can climb to the ceiling (resistance). 3. 9650 is a resistance zone from the accumulation we experienced from May-July 2020. This would be a nice retest as support before we continue up. 4. Lastly, and this is more of a longer time period analysis, after the halving the price pumps pretty hard. I wouldn't see Bitcoin reaching pre-halving lows of 6000-8000. If we break under the TL support and CME gap, the next high time-frame support is around 8k...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Riester
2
BITCOIN CYCLE HIGH TARGET of $80-90K+ (BTCUSD)In this post, I took the popularized theory of the 4year bitcoin halving price cycle and conducted some analysis and price projection. Namely I took note of the previous 2 cycles' price rise multiple from two starting points: 1. From bottom to cycle top 2. From halving to cycle top One thing to notice is that the price multiple decreased from the first cycle to the second cycle on both of those metrics: 1. From bottom to cycle top: for the 1st halving, price increased by 600x from bottom to cycle top, and for the 2nd halving, price increased 125x from bottom to cycle top. This is roughly 5x reduction in the price multiple. If we assume that the current 3rd halving we will see the same 5x reduction in price multiple, we get 25x price from low of $3-4K, giving us a cycle top target of ~$80K. 2. From halving to cycle top: for the 1st halving, price increased 85x from the halving price to the cycle top, and for the 2nd halving, price increased 30x from halving price to cycle top. This is roughly a 2-3x reduction in the price multiple. If we assume that the current 3rd halving we well see the same 2-3 reduction in price multiple, we get 10x from halving price to cycle top, giving us a cycle top target of ~$90K Combining both metrics, we see that they give roughly the same price target for this cycle top of around $80-90K. It is quite interesting and somewhat comforting to see the convergence of price target using these two separate metrics. Some of you might think that it makes more sense to take an average of the previous two cycles as opposed to continue to reduce the price multiple. In that case, the price target will be much higher than the $80K-90K based on this analysis. There will also be some of you who think that the 4-year cycle wont repeat and that bitcoin will never reach these types of levels. Let me know if you think this price target is conservative or aggressive. Would love to hear your thoughts. This is not financial advice, please do your own Due Diligence. I'm just sharing my personal trades. I will be posting ideas on a daily basis (whenever there are trade setups that meet my criteria). Please follow, like, and comment to get daily trade setups and live trade updates.
BNC:BLX
by cryptotraderog
BTC Running Flat vs. Expanded Flat ScenarioWithin this correction it is pretty obvious Wave B has ended beyond the start of Wave A. This leaves two possibilities fro simple corrections: a running flat or an expanded flat. Running Flat: - B ends beyond the start of A - C ends before the end of A Expanded Flat: - B ends beyond the start of A - C ends well beyond the end of A So which avenue do we go down? Check out the RSI. Notice how the price has made Higher Highs, but the RSI has made Lower Highs. This is bearish divergence, so we are dumping whether we like it or not. That Wave C is coming. However, the hidden bullish divergence tells another tale. The price has made Higher Lows until recently, and the RSI has made Lower Lows. The hidden bullish divergence I believe will support the end of Wave C, and keep it from retracing the entirety of Wave A. On top of that, there is a load of liquidity at 10900-11100. We are yet to properly retrace this area, as it has only seen a long tail wick and nothing more since the end of Wave A. Again, I might be wrong. So let's talk invalidation. Once we retrace to the demand zone at 10.9-11.1k we must slow down before reversing. The RSI must print regular bullish divergence on the LTF (price makes lower lows, RSI makes higher lows). Ideally, we should see long tail wicks sucking up the demand zone, or an extended accumulation at support to signify stability at the 10.9-11.1k level. If we break the demand zone or the RSI prints bearish divergence on the LTF, then it'll be quite clear we are heading lower. In this case, our final option is likely an extended flat. The next HTF demand zone is at 10500. See you at the bottom of Wave C, wherever it lies.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Riester
1
LISK Hello, we were looking for alts to invest in as the btc dominance is going down (see the related idea). Well, after Zcash, Lisk is perfect right now as: 1- it broke the descending trendiline upwards; 2 - it will halve on the 28th of September, so the price should start its run; 3 - the price just reentered the turquoise retracement area after months. Unfortunately, I do not have any clue about the target at the moment. We will have to monitor this closely. There is some risk involved as it could retrace a little from here to retest the triangle. So, will the halving hype or the technicals win?
Long
by edutradinguru
4
BTC Triangles Consolidation w/ RSI DivergenceANALYSIS: 1. RSI Hidden Bullish Divergence. --> price higher lows, RSI lower lows 2. 11150 holding as support 3. Demand absorbing candle (long-tail wick) TRADE OPPORTUNITY: 1. Entry = 11300 a) H$ demand zone b) beginning of Wave C of a triangle c) ascending trend line support 2. Stop Loss = 11100 a) end of long-tail wick (which is a supply demand absorbing candle) 3. Target 1 = 12200 a) range high from end of previous impulse 4. Target 2 = 13200 a) Supply Zone from July 2019 To be sure of an entry, wait for a doji candle or a retest of 11400 on the hourly to confirm a bullish environment.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by Riester
ZEC HALVING APPROACHESHello, I missed this completely unexpected mini run (at least for me). However, the upside potential is still big as the Halving approaches (as of now it is expected on the 17th of November. Let's wait for a pullback to the 0.007 area to enter or for a decise breakup above the turquoise rectangle identifying a very important support/resisntence area in the last year. Target to be defined later on, when we will know which of the two scenarios will occur.
Long
by edutradinguru
2
hi Halvers!!!COINBASE:BTCUSD as from my previous analysis, I've been saying the BTC is bullish until proven otherwise, that is breaking 3200 to the downside. right now it breaks AGAIN 9600 with a solid bullish candle in H4, and is right now inside a volume zone. The next few days are critical because of the halving and all that, but I've heard some guys saying that BTC will go to 100 before halving... uhm, I don't know, but let's wait. righth now? technicals over fundamentals, as always...
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Luisgonzalo