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Halving2020

BTC Preparing for Fifth WaveAnalysis of Supply/Demand: 1. Liquidity @ 10250, and July 26 consolidation marked buying pressure before recent pump to 11400: demand block 2. Liquidity and numerous retests within July 28 ABCDE triangle correction tested 11030 as support: demand block 3. Selling pressure and slight liquidity @ 11400 mark resistance at 11400: supply block Fibonacci Retracement: 1. Beginning of July 27 impulse at demand block @ 10250 --> 0% FIB retracement 2. End of 28 impulse at supply block @ 11400 --> 100% FIB retracement 3. Important S/R areas within the July 28 ABCDE triangle consolidation fell at 78.6% and 61.8% retracements. The above analysis is the foundation upon which I will predict where we are heading. What the Past Tells Us: 1. Resistance from July & August 2019 is about to be tested 2. July 3 & 11, 2019 resistance @ 11890 3. August 2019 resistance @ 12080 What the Future Holds: 1. Our 127.2% FIB extension lies @ 11890 2. Our 141.4% FIB extension lies @ 12080 Confirmation of Analysis (or is it confirmation bias?): 1. Wave count from 9100 breakout puts us at the end of a Wave 4 correction, with a move to the upper 11000s as a fifth wave 2. RSI Bullish Divergence on 4H 3. On LTF, such as 15m, you will see the dump from 11200 to 10900 is a falling wedge. Price tends to pump after a falling wedge ends. 4. Dynamic trend line S/R tested as resistance by July 26 wick, and support by July 28 wick. 5. Spinning top bear candle at this trend line hints a reversal is coming... Potential Trade: Entry --> 10950 Stop Loss --> 10865 (maybe upper 10700s if you're worried about nasty bear wicks) Target 1 --> 11890 (127.2% extension) Target 2 --> 12080 (141.4% extension)
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by Riester
1
BTC/USD - it's a trap!!Hello, traders! In last week’s analysis, we ran through BTC’s potential Wyckoff distribution stage. Looking through the basics of Wyckoff market cycles while analyzing the potential cycle which is occurring, as demonstrated below. Showing that BTC could be potentially overbought. During this report it was stated that BTC could see an imminent drop, that BTC was showing signs of weakness – it would only be a matter of time until the BTC price fell from a cliff. However, Bitcoin has had a surprising rally over the past few days, seeing BTC increase from just over $9000 USD pushing towards $10700 USD. This represented over a 10% gain over a 7 day period. Although is this push an exit plan for the larger players – allowing them to set up a trap? Or is it the start of a new BTC bullish trend? We should note that the RSI is at an extremely high level, meaning that a small retracement is likely. If BTC can use the 20 MA (centerline) from the BB as support, allowing for the RSI to recover then this would point towards questions of the Wyckoff analysis indicating the LPSY too early. On the other hand, if BTC is not supported by the center line and proceeds to touch the lower band, then this would be a huge bearish indicator – suggesting that a major reversal from the previous uptrend from March is in place. Therefore maintaining the current Wyckoff analysis. The first bullish target for BTC should have been $10250 USD. Which was broken above, invalidating the recent Wyckoff analysis? This represented a 6.25% gain. The second bullish target is 10 750. A break above would represent over a 7% gain. The first bearish target would be a break below $9000 USD. A break below this would represent a 6.25% loss, a drop here would majorly increase the likelihood of a major breakdown in price. The second bearish target would be $8620 USD. A fall below this level would certify the new bearish price wave, representing a 24% loss from BTCs current position. What do you think happens with BTC next? Share your thoughts in the comments!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn10064030
2
Bitcoin Perfect Wyckoff Distribution. Watch for dump...This post will highlight Bitcoin's long term price action to the Wyckoff Distribution schematic. At the end I will establish numerous trading opportunities to prepare fro the dump... Before I explain the near-perfect similarities to Wyckoff Distribution, click the link below to see an image of the phases of Wyckoff Distribution. View this image and then Bitcoin back and forth to compare each phase. Wyckoff Distribution Image: www.dropbox.com I posted this chart on July 9th calling the rise to new local highs, in accordance with Wyckoff Distribution. We pumped, now get ready to dump. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is burning red hot around 10500. It shattered the resistance (R1( from the Buying Climax in Phase A. It also shattered resistance (R2) from UT, the Upthrust. This is all part of Phase C where new local highs are made. We are completing Phase C as we speak. 10900 is a noticeable resistance from July & September 2019! Unfortunately, this leads to Phase D where the "Last Signs of Strength" retest each resistance we faced in Phases A/B as support... Trade Opportunities for Phases D & E 1. SHORT 10900 to 10000, where we will retest R1 & R2 as resistance once again. 2. Potential LONG scalp from Buying Climax (R1) @ 10000 to UT (R2) @ 10500 3. SHORT 10000 to 9300 where first "Last Sign of Strength" will retest S/R area from the middle of the distribution range 4. Potential LONG scalp from 9300 to ~9600 where first "Last Sign of Strength" retests S/R area as resistance 5. SHORT 9600 resistance to 8600 Preliminary Support from Phase A 6. Potential LONG scalp from 8600 to 8900 where support from June's downtrend will be retested as resistance 7. SHORT 8700-8900 to 7800 where Bitcoin found temporary support in its dump on March 10-13 8. Potential LONG scalp from 7800 to 8100 to retest the support established by "Automatic Retrace" in Phase A as resistance 9. SHORT 8100 to 7500 to resistance major S/R from the early days after the crash If you've made it this far, thank you for reading. I will see you all on the Bitcoin rocket ride to the moon. #Halving2020
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by Riester
1
BTC Classic 5 Wave Impulse w/ Extended Fifth. Time to correctThis is almost too perfect of an example. A classic five wave impulse with an extended fifth, meaning the W5 is longer than W1 or W3. Each of the impulse waves (1, 3, 5) consisted of five subwaves. In addition to this, an ABCDE triangle consolidation tends to happen on W4 of a 5 wave impulse, which in this case it did. To mark the end of this magnificent rally, the 1H RSI printed regular bearish divergence for subwaves W3 & W5 of the extended fifth wave. I believe we are due for a correction. An ABC Correction tends to follow a five wave impulse. A common retracement zone is the S/R area of W4, which is where massive consolidation occurs in an ABCDE triangle. This S/R zone is around 9600. In conjunction with this, the VPVR indicator shows high liquidity at 9590. A support zone closer to entry resides at the S/R area for the W4 subwave of the extended fifth wave around 9950. Short Position Entry: 10312 Stop Loss: 10400 Target 1: 9950 Target 2: 9590
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by Riester
BTC Classic 5 Wave Impulse- long to 9800 or 10000As seen on Crypto Twitter, the recent ABCDE consolidation seems to be W4 of a 5 wave impulse. Today's break out of the triangle consolidation should be W5. Noticeable resistance, liquidity, and fibonacci extensions reside at two places: 1. 9800. This is 1.272 fib extension and resistance from late June 2. 10000. This is 1.618 extension and resistance from early June Personally, I'm staring at 10k as the target. In a 5 wave impulse, either W3 or W5 is longer than the other impulse waves. So far W1 and W3 are about the same length, so maybe W5 is the longer impulse. In addition, 1.618 extensions are very common... Potential Long Opportunity: Wait for the break out of the ABCDE consolidation to retest 9660 as support, and then long to 10k. Entry: 9660 Stop Loss: 9560 Target: 10000
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by Riester
BTC/USD Wyckoff market cycle formation and analysisBTC has recently become very hard to dissect, this is due to the lack of volatility. BTC has moved within a 10% trading range over the past month, failing to break above $10500 USD or below $8500 USD. A different type of trading method/outlook may be needed in order to see which direction BTC wants to move. Looking at BTC currently, it appears as though the Wyckoff market cycle may be applicable. It appears as though BTC is currently in the distribution area. Chart description PSY – Firstly, we find the BTC Preliminary Supply. This is where the volume expands after some larger market players begin to unload their BTC. However, this BTC is snapped up quickly due to high market interest. BC - After the PSY, we saw a Buying Climax (BC). BCs often coincide with positive news or a positive event happening, which in this case was the BTC halving. AR - After the BC, an Automatic Reaction has occurred, seeing BTC lose value due extreme demand allowing BTC to breathe. At the time an AR appears to be a healthy minor retracement. UT - An Upwards Test has then happened shortly after the AR. This is an attempted breakout of the BC resistance level. However, due to the lack of buying power remaining and the decrease in BTC demand the UT fails to break above the resistance line set by the BC. This test then confirms the resistance level. In this instance, the BC was not reached to set a secondary resistance line. SOW - Sign Of Weakness. The SOW tested the support level set by the AR and PSY. This confirmed that BTC was struggling to push further, that was the end of the impulsive move up, showing that BTCs huge gains week after week were coming to an end. The SOW increased the validation of the support line set by the AR and PSY. UTAD - Upwards Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) was seen after the SOW. This move up was matched by a breakout of volume. However BTC could not consolidate and move up with these gains. Instead BTC saw a huge sell off the next day. From the UTAD it confirmed that BTC was stuck within a trading range. SOW (2) - We have recently seen another SOW after an extended period of clear BTC weakness. BTC attempted to test the support lines again with multiple wicks, coincided by a decreasing volume, showing a growing lack of interest in BTC. LPSY - Last Point of Supply (LPSY). This was a move by BTC after a break of the downwards trend line. Likely the final push up to prevent the incoming downwards movement and allowing for larger players to exit if they wish to. BTC is looking bearish through the Wyckoff analysis and could make downwards moves within the coming days. BTC controls the cryptocurrency market currently with HUGE dominance over altcoins! Don't miss the market! What are your expectations on the price of BTC in the following week?
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn10064030
BTC Playing the Wycoff DistributionLet me start off by linking a textbook example of Wycoff Distribution. Understand the phases and then move on to this Bitcoin chart. Dropbox Screenshot: www.dropbox.com Article: tradingcoach.co.in WYCOFF DISTRIBUTION The phases of distribution follow a rhythmic pattern. After a major dump, smart money will accumulate a cheap asset, which causes a Buying Climax. Eventually smart money tries to liquidate their positions after the nice rally caused by their longs. This establishes the first resistance: Preliminary Resistance (Resistance 1 @ $10050). Due to smart money cashing out on their longs, the market follows their lead and dumps as well in what is known as an "Automatic Selloff." This establishes the first major support: Support 1 @ $8650. In this specific Bitcoin chart, there was a Secondary Test (ST) after the Automatic Selloff before the Upthrust (UT). Multiple ST's are common are smart money trades the range between Support 1 & Resistance 1. Each subsequent test of resistance tests the power of the bears. As you all know, once you sell you've sold. The sellers will eventually run out, and the buying pressure will eventually crack through Resistance 1. This is known as the Upthrust (UT) . Though sellers were shaken out at Resistance 1, there are plenty more at Resistance 2 @ $10450, so this upward momentum is halted by intense selling pressure. This is often a shakeout for retail investors who think Bitcoin will go to the moon from here on out. Once the bears regain control at Resistance 2, and the price crashes, the market sentiment becomes bearish. At this point multiple tests of resistance have occurred and many buyers have bought and been wrong because of intense selling pressure. The market sees the resistance as an impenetrable ceiling, which creates longer term selling pressure; this reveals itself in the form of LOWER HIGHS . I highlight this because this is likely the strongest evidence for Bitcoin being in distribution versus re-accumulation at this point. Volume and price are making lower highs, which is a significant indication of weakness. Eventually the bulls lose faith in their Bitcoin Moon wetdream and stop buying; at which point the bears regain control and dump like the day after Thanksgiving. The price tears through Support 1 where the Buying Climax occurred, and even through Support 2 @ $8150 where the Automatic Selloff found support. This is (obviously) a Sign of Weakness (SOW) and Bitcoin retests the lowest support from the range as resistance . WHAT TO WATCH 1. I am expecting Bitcoin to test Support 1 @ $8650 as resistance by roughly July 23rd, 2020 2. From there I will enter a short to Support 2 @ $8150 at least. 3. If Bitcoin follows a perfect Wycoff Distribution, then it will break below $8150 and dump to the next major support 4. The next major support, indicated by liquidity and price reversals, resides around $6600-6700. I will see you all at the bottom. Cheers.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Riester
No One is Talking About this...2020-2016 BTC Halvings Part 2Part 2 of 2 Second Chart with same EMA's...2020 Halving is red dotted vertical line ...so... Measured 12-16 weeks Post-Halving Like on the 2016 Halving Chart previously Published BTC Currently Closing Week 9 Post-Halving 2020 Will BTC re-test the Weekly 21 & 55 EMA's? Definately with in range and has shown to be common during the 2016 Bull Run. PLease share, Comment below, Discuss on You Tube... My Favorites are...in no order... Krown's Crypto Cave, The Moon, Crypto Zombi, Ivan on Tech, MM Crypto with DavinciJ15, Altcoin Daily and ... Notice the Stochs crossing Down to test trend line... VPBR High volume nodes match up to 21 and 55 EMA's The 200 MA and EMA are also interesting, lining up at the FIB Golden Pocket re-tracement. Attached the link to previous 2016 Halving chart Idea below
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chefrusty
2016 BTC Halving 55 & 21 EMA Re-test Part 1 of 2This chart shows the 2016 BTC Halving(red dot vertical line) and how BTC re-tested the 55 and 21 EMA's 12-16 weeks after the Halving. BTC is currently closing out Week 9 Post-Halving 2020. Will BTC re-trace to the 55 and or the 21 Weekly EMA's this time...I think the current day, 21 EMA could be tapped no problem...Look for next post for Part 2 Showing 2020 Weekly where BTC currently is...Save this chart to compare...very similar...notice 2016 prices will never be seen again after the Re-Tests of the 21 EMA along the BULL RUN climb.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chefrusty
Bitcoin Long Term Analysis- " No chance to buy back in " not a good mindset when trading. - My goal is to find the next Bitcoin bottom. Disclosure, I currently have no position in BTC. - In the long run, the halving will kick in 2021. Look at halving charts. - First wave of alt season happened. This short term down trend will bring a lot of weekly pump and dumps. - This is the time to find bottoms and get into juicy positions. This chart is not the best. Take it with a grain of salt.
BLong
by AthenticWhale1
BTC Argument for Re-Accumulation vs. DistributionPretty self-explanatory. The neckline seems to be angled instead of flat. Extending the trend to the right shoulder, and seeing that there is high liquidity @ 8600, a correction to the neckline would not surprise me. From then on the next notable resistance (and liquidity) is ~12500. I have seen arguments for that ranging just under 10500 as either re-accumulation or distribution. As @CredibleCrypto pointed out on Twitter, we have tapped this resistance 3 times in that last year. Now instead of immediately dumping, we have consolidated just under the 10500 resistance, which hints at weakening selling pressure. On the other hand, the range we have been in since mid April of 8000 to 10500 appears to resemble Phase A & B of Wycoff Distribution. Hard to tell, but the possibility of Wycoff Distribution could just be Confirmation Bias. The fact that we have tapped 10500 3 times in the past year is solid evidence for re-accumulation. This combined with an Inverted H&S pattern are both bullish, so my bias is bullish. NOTE: I have linked my post of a possible Wycoff Distribution below. Compare that bearish outlook to this bullish outlook and decide for yourselves...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Riester
1
Bitcoin Growth Angle of Market CyclesFrom the origin of Bitcoin to the peak of each bull run, a trend line was drawn. Using the "trend angle" tool I found the angle corresponding to each bull market. Bull Run 1 (2010-2011): 74 degrees Bull Run 2 (2012-2013): 56 degrees Bull Run 3 (2015-2017): 41 degrees Bull Run (2020-2022?): 30 degrees? By comparing the angle of the previous bull run to the following bull run, a repeating ratio reveals itself. Bull Run 1 = 74 Bull Run 2 = 56 74/56 = 1.32 Bull Run 2 = 56 Bull Run 3 = 41 56/41 = 1.36 These numbers could be a coincidence, but seeing how Bitcoin has followed a logarithmic regression that seemingly revolves in 4-year cycles, it wouldn't surprise me if more patterns revealed themselves. So where do we go from here? To see where we might be heading, we simply continue the model. Bull Run 3 = 41 Bull Run 4 = x Bull Run 4 is the bull run that the 2020 Halving has started. As it has not happened yet, we do not know the Angle of Growth. However, by recognizing that the ratio between two consecutive bull runs is around 1.3, we can use this information to calculate the angle. 41/x = ~1.3 41/1.3 = x x = ~30 degrees What is remarkable about the "trend angle" I drew at 30 degrees, is that it touches the crash in March 2020 from the pandemic. In fact it acts as almost perfect support! (light blue trend line) On the other hand, I drew a curve that connects the peak of each bull run (white dotted curve). The area where the white curve and the trend line of Bull Run 4 converge is around Spring 2022 @ $100,000. Hope you all are enjoying this bullish sentiment as much as I am. On a side note, seeing these patterns through mathematics excites me because math is impartial. Using math to map the future eliminates the possibility of a Confirmation Bias finding "patterns" that aren't actually there. The truth is in the math...
BNC:BLXLong
by Riester
Bitcoin Market Cycle Analysis- Golden RatioNOTE: The trend lines align perfectly from the bottom to the top of each market cycle before publishing. Once I publish, the angle trend lines become skewed. Draw your own trend line angle to see for yourself what I am discussing... As we all know, the Golden Ratio shows up everywhere in Nature. Here is another example of the mysterious figure showing its face, though with rather grand implications... The angle of each market cycle arises from the bottom of a bear market to the peak of the next bull market. The angles by themselves provide little information. The true magic lies within the relationship between the angles. Dividing the previous market cycle angle by the following market cycle angle yields a number close to 1.618, the Golden Ratio. It could be a coincidence, and my hope that this phenomenon relates to the Golden Ratio is simply a figment of my imagination. Hence, why I am publishing this for everyone to decide for themselves, because I may be lost in my Fibonacci Fantasy. Cheers.
BNC:BLX
by Riester
2
BTC 7 Day ForecastOver the last 2 weeks Bitcoin has shown its face in an interesting way. The bullish rocket that tapped 10500 and immediately corrected to 9100 broke out of a solidified channel that began in early May. This "false breakout" is a bearish sign, as the bulls failed to hold the price up. Since then Bitcoin has ranged a few hundred dollars at a time, before breaking to a lower support. Today, the 2020 Summer Solstice, we have tapped the 9100 support that has supported the price for the last 10 days. A bullish candle with a strong opening wick has brushed the support. In tandem, on the daily timeframe we had a "falling three" candlestick pattern, which is a bullish indication. With liquidity around 9450 and 9750, I am placing my first and second targets there to close my long position. Over the next week I am expecting a test of the 9450 resistance, and if that breaks a test of 9750. Long Position: Entry --> 9290 Target 1 --> 9450 Target 2 --> 9750 Stop Loss --> 8860
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Riester
2
Bitcoin- Fundamental analysisIn nutshells, BTC is short-term bearish and mid-term and long-term bullish The longer the BTC price stay away from 3.4k, the less likely the 3.4k will be revisited again. Three failed attempts at 10k have signaled the short-term bearish sentiment. Low volatility and volume in the past month could be the precursor to the big price movement. Fundamental factors- *After the halving on May 11th, the hash rate dropped more than 40%. Two days ago, Bitcoin difficulty lvl recorded its biggest change of +15% since January 2018. There was no sharp price decline after the halving as some have predicted. *2020 is the year in which Fed exercises unprecedented monetary stimulus. This week, Fed starts to buy privately-issued individual corporate bonds from primary broker. *Various surveys indicate millennials' trust in BTC increase as their trust in traditional banking decline. In addition, baby boomers are slowly warming up to BTC. *The # of Bitcoin whales, or addresses that hold at least 1,000 BTC, is reaching levels seen before the 2017 market euphoria *According to glassnode, # of addresses holding 0.1+ coins reached an ATH of 3,069,763.000 two days ago, which indicates the robust retail demand *Nearly 60% of total Bitcoin is dormant for at least a year, which might indicate the HODL sentiment that investors expect the BTC price to go up. *According to the historical data, Mayer multiple indicates that investor would achieve better results by accumulating bitcoin when the ratio is below 2.4. Currently, it stands at 1.13 *Between May 2019 and May 2020, the value of Grayscale’s Bitcoin investment trust surged 76% from $1.9 billion, indicating a strong institutional demand. Currently in choppy no trade zone. Scale in slowly between 8.5k-8.8k. Flip to shorts if price breaks down convincingly below 8k.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Libratus
5
STEEM \ BTC. 30% profit here and now! Good day. Consider a pair of STEEM \ BTC, which on many large exchanges can give a good profit Everything is connected here with the volume, but more on that later .... On the chart I have designated -yellow flag: the large volume and shadow of the candle shows us the potential for the continuation of the bull trend - goal levels - a triangle with a breakdown You need to learn to understand the volume of trading and for this it is worth knowing the types: The vertical volume displays the number of transactions concluded for a certain period of time. When working with an indicator of horizontal type, interest is displayed in a particular price level. Cluster analysis of trading volume is called "X-ray candles." It displays the volume that is traded at a specific price during the entire process of forming one candle.
SLong
by DextraBlack
2