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Halvingbitcoin

BTC ANALYSIS FROM 2011 - 2024Update 3.08.2022 Hello everyone, I would like to present what repeatability can be determined in more detail by analyzing the BTC chart, taking into account the 3 halvings we experienced and the fourth which lies ahead. We have a log BTC chart from 2011 to today in front of us. We will start by designating the places where BTC has done its halving, as you can see, the first halving took place in November 2012, the second halving in June 2016, the third halving in May 2020, and we also mark the halving which should be in June 2024 . On the other hand, we mark the middle between the halves with white lines. We will use a green box to mark the gaps between the edible and the other half so that we can see this space and repetition more clearly. For the analysis, we will use the blue lines which represent the way btc moves, one line indicates the lowest price points, and we can see that btc touches the line repeatedly, and in the same way we can mark the places where price has reached its ATH. It is worth noting that with the first halving, btc fell by about 86% from its ATH on the second halving he was down about 84% from his ATH with a 3 fold reduction, the decrease from ATH so far is about 74%. The current low is 74% where the blue line is, but BTC sometimes has a quick dip in the candlestick which could be around 82% from the ATH. Given the repeatability between halves, the current maximum opening should be around $ 10,500 Now we use the mean measure tool marked with the purple line and we can see that every time we cut it in half, as the average goes through half the period to half, the cane consolidates and then the price drops below our purple line. Moving on, we also see that after each drop below average around the half of the halving, the price started to rebound and break the first trend denoted by the white line as well as exiting the yellow area, then breaking the second trend and exiting the second yellow area. Thus, breaking the first trend is a pro-growth period, and breaking the second trend is a pro-growth period followed by price increases. Currently, we have not yet broken the first trend, given the cyclical nature of btc and the fact that large capital is distributed similarly and often all negative news is already included in the price, we can assume that the situation will repeat itself. After breaking the second trend and breaking above the average, the price will start rising again. Finally, we present a visualization of how the btc price may possibly move to the next halving in the coming time, we mark the path that the price may follow with a white line. Please remember that these are not investment recommendations, everyone is responsible for their financial games, these are just our observations about the market and how the price moves.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptodailyuk
18
BTC halving cycles, rhyming history & gauging bottomsIn the chart displayed I took the logarithmic growth of bitcoin and explored historic trends and figures that can *potentially* be used in predicting an unpredictable market. Note that there a multiple logarithmic growth curves for bitcoin online and my thesis is based on the curve seen in the chart provided by @quantadelic on TradingView so big thank you to them. This idea can be invalidated on other log curves hence the note. Other than that I sourced halving dates from: Deltec None of this is financial advice and I am only doing this for the sake of having fun charting and sharing an idea that might bring you some value As seen from the 2012, 2016 & 2020 halving $BTC always starts off with a huge expansion phase followed by a contraction phase after peaking and finally a smaller expansion/consolidation approaching the next halving cycle. Provided that we have only seen 2 cycles play out it is difficult to make estimated guesses due to the lack of data but nonetheless we utilise what we have. The 2012 expansion lasted for ±367 days while the 2016 expansion lasted for ±526 days. Provided that history repeats itself we can acknowledge that bitcoin has established its peak whether that be peak 1 (mid April ±336 days after halving) or peak 2 (early November ±546 days after halving) using previous cycle day counts and can now expect to find a trough. I believe these were both local tops this cycle and that we still see a global top this cycle explained later in this piece. Approximately a year after a cycle peak we see a mass capitulation event that marks the trough AKA the cycle bottom. We saw this play out in the 2012 cycle where bitcoin capitulated about 400 days after peaking & in the 2016 cycle where bitcoin capitulated almost exactly 1 year (364 days) after peaking marking the trough. If we apply history to the current 2020 cycle (and to its double top i.e to each peak) I expect BTC to find a bottom anywhere between April '22 (±1 year after 1st peak) or November '22 (±1 year after 2nd peak) anywhere along the logarithmic growth curve, as it has historically bottomed there. It is important to note that the curve does not define a bottom and we can still nuke further (see March of 2020 covid black swan outlier where bitcoin fell 50% below the curve). There are a lot of macro factors that can cause another nuke such as a nuclear war, no pun intended or a global recession. This should be considered before bidding and understanding risk accordingly, although I believe bitcoin will flourish in either of these scenarios as it is the hardest money out there. Finally back to the idea of a global cycle top, if history repeats then bitcoin should closely rest on the logarithmic growth curve meaning that towards the next cycle one bitcoin should be valued at over one hundred thousand united state dollars. Am I certain bitcoin will be valued at that? Not at all, I have no clue other than the logic I wrote here. It will take a massive amount of spot bids to get us over 100k and am only basing this off of historical price chilling at the bottom of the logarithmic growth curve. I will personally DCA and bid anywhere along the bottom of the curve, as always DYOR. You may have also noticed that I did not comment on bitcoin peaking at the upper band of the curve, this may or may not happen before the next halving and I prefer not to comment. This is my first time writing something like this. I hope you enjoyed reading and found value in my idea on how things will play out. Happy trading twitter: psycryptocat
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by psyfib
1
BTC/USD - The third ever halving took place on May 11 #630000.The third ever halving took place on May 11 in the Bitcoin network on block #630000. The specified block, the award for which amounted to 6.25 BTC, at 19:23 GMT got the AntPool pool. Halving is a halving of the miners' reward for adding a new block to the block. Satoshi Nakamoto programmed halving in the bitcoin network every 210 thousand blocks, i.e. once in 4 years - up to the moment when with the extraction of 21 million coins (presumably in 2140) the issue of crypto currency will be finished. The first halving took place on November 28, 2012, the growth started a month later and amounted to over 9000%. Second - July 9, 2016, the growth started a month later and amounted to over 3000% Third May 11, 2020 How long will the growth begin? In a month, I think. Bitcoin props were in October 2012, October 2013, January 2015, April 2016, August 2016. They were usually followed by flutter and growth. (marked purple) Push ❤️ if you think this is a useful idea! Before to trade my ideas make your own analysis. Thanks for your support!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Valeriia_Top
14
The HALVING and the CHARTWhat are the expectations towards BTC now with the halving? Well, if we look in the long run, BTC has a lot of potential and the theories about it hitting U $ 50k (and beyond) are not so insane anymore . But what the chart can tell us? Look at the weekly chart. BTC is trapped inside a descending channel for almost a year now, and last week did a candle that’s not good. We can assume it's a pullback, because the price needs a rest after such a bullish move, and that’s alright. But we need to escape that channel! Despite last week’s candle, there are reasons to believe BTC will rise again. See the volume? Unlike the last bullish trend (purple rectangle), the last bullish move had a good amount of volume, a sign of interest in the crypto. During a lot of weeks the volume was low, and now we see a sudden raise, and just like the father of technical analysis, Charles Dow , said about a century ago: “The Volume Must Confirm the Trend”. We should not get disappointed with that recent drop of the prices and think of it more like an opportunity to buy BTC at a lower price. I’m optimistic towards the crypto, and in my view, we haven’t seen the real potential BTC has yet. Remember to follow me, I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped. Thank you very much. * LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because: - Here, you will see clean charts; - Trades with clear risk management; - The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology; - Chart patterns with statistics. * * My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
5
Bitcoin Halving History And PredictionsCryptohopper Newsletter BTC has continued its rebound, and it is now 90% up from its lows this year at 3,800$. With the halving about a month away, many BTC enthusiasts and investors expect the price of the asset to continue its uptrend. Today we will examine the past two halvings and give out our predictions for how the third halving will play out based on the past data. Without further due, let’s take a look at the previous halvings and at our predictions for the third! First Halving The first Bitcoin halving occurred on November 25th, 2012. The price of Bitcoin before the halving was only 12$ . After the halving, the price increased by more than 9,000% to 1,160$ in about 1 year. This was followed by an 86% market crash over the course of 420 days. After a long period of consolidation of about 300 days, the price started to increase again before the next halving. Let's now take a look and see how similar or different the price behaved during the second halving. Second Halving The second Bitcoin halving occurred on July 9th, 2016. The price of Bitcoin before the halving was only 650$ (half of the previous high) . After the halving, the price increased by almost 3,000% (only a third compared to the other one) to 19,500$ in about a year and a half. This was followed by an 84% market crash over 364 days. After a shorter period of consolidation of just over 100 days, the price started to increase again before the next halving. Sounds similar? Well, that’s because it is. The price followed an almost exact pattern from the first halving. We will now move on to our predictions of the third halving based on the data gathered from the previous two. Third Halving The third halving is set to occur on May the 13th. If the third halving will follow the other two, then the price of Bitcoin should be around 9,000$-10,000$ around the time of the second halving (half of the last high). After the second halving, the price should increase by about 1,000% if it is to follow the tradition of increasing 3 times less than the previous halving. If all of the previous statements turn out to be true, then we could expect BTC to reach around 90,000$-100,000$ after the third halving. The price should then follow a correction of around 80% down to 20,000$ . In short: We expect the price to be around 9,000$-10,000$ around May 13th. We expect BTC to reach around 90,000$-100,000$ at its next peak. We expect the price to follow a correction down to 20,000$. These are of course our expectations based on how the price behaved over the previous 2 halvings. The price won’t necessarily occur following the exact steps we displayed here. As with technical analysis in general: the price tends to follow historical patterns but it doesn’t have to. If the price will behave similarly to the first two halvings, then trend-following indicators will be very useful in identifying the trend and riding to the moon. Join us on Cryptohopper today and take advantage of the next halving by automating your trading.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by cryptohopper
4